AQI time series prediction based on a hybrid data decomposition and echo state networks

A new hybrid optimization prediction model for PM2.5 concentration considering other air pollutants and meteorological conditions

With the development of economy, the problem of air pollution has become increasingly serious. As an important detection index of air pollutants, how to accurately and effectively predict PM2.5 concentration is a significant issue related to human health and development. In this paper, a new hybrid optimization prediction model for PM2.5 concentration based on complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise (CEEMDAN), variational mode decomposition optimized by COOT optimization algorithm (COOT-VMD), and least square support vector machine (LSSVM) optimized by the JAYA optimization algorithm (JAYA-LSSVM), named CEEMDAN-COOT-VMD-JAYA-LSSVM, is proposed. To avoid artificially setting the limits of the decomposition layer and penalty factor of VMD parameters, an improved VMD by COOT optimization algorithm, named COOT-VMD, is proposed. First, the original sequence of PM2.5 concentration is decomposed by CEEMDAN. Second, the high complexity component with low prediction accuracy after once decomposition is decomposed by COOT-VMD. Third, a prediction model of optimized LSSVM by JAYA optimization algorithm, named JAYA-LSSVM, is proposed. JAYA-LSSVM is used to predict all components considering other air pollutants such as PM10, SO2, NO2, CO, and O3 and meteorological conditions such as wind speed, temperature, sunlight, relative humidity and average air pressure. Finally, all predicted values are reconstructed to obtain the final prediction results. PM2.5 concentration from April 1, 2016 to March 29, 2021 in Xi'an and Shenyang is used as the experimental data to verify the proposed model. The results of experiment in Xi'an show that the RMSE, MAE, MAPE and R² are 2.843, 1.8344, 2.94%, and 0.99525 respectively. The results of experiment in Shenyang show that the RMSE, MAE, MAPE and R² are 2.2714, 1.673, 3.13%, and 0.99573 respectively. Compared to other single and hybrid models, the proposed model can accurately predict PM2.5 concentration. Diebold Mariano test results display the proposed prediction model is superior to all comparison models at 99% confidence level.

A new hybrid prediction model of air quality index based on secondary decomposition and improved kernel extreme learning machine

Air quality index (AQI) prediction is important to control air pollution. To improve its accuracy, a new hybrid prediction model of AQI based on complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise (CEEMDAN), multivariate multiscale dispersion entropy (mvMDE), variational mode decomposition optimized by bald eagle search (BES) algorithm (BVMD) and kernel extreme learning machine optimized by rat swarm optimizer (RSO) algorithm (RSO-KELM), named CEEMDAN-mvMDE-BVMD-RSO-KELM, is proposed. Firstly, AQI series is decomposed by CEEMDAN to obtain multiple intrinsic mode function (IMF) components, and each IMF component's complexity is calculated by mvMDE. Secondly, VMD optimized by BES algorithm, named BVMD, is proposed to solve the problem of choosing the decomposition level K and penalty factor α of VMD, and BVMD is used to perform the secondary decomposition of high complexity components. Thirdly, the penalty coefficient and kernel parameter of KELM optimized by RSO algorithm, named RSO-KELM, is proposed, and all IMF components are predicted by RSO-KELM. Finally, the final prediction results are obtained by reconstructing the prediction results of all IMF components. The objective of this study is to propose a new hybrid prediction model of AQI based on secondary decomposition and improved KELM. Taking Shanghai, Beijing and Xi'an as examples, the results show that compared with the comparison models, the proposed model has the highest prediction accuracy.

Auto-Modal: Air-Quality Index Forecasting with Modal Decomposition Attention

The air-quality index (AQI) is an important comprehensive evaluation index to measure the quality of air, with its value reflecting the degree of air pollution. However, it is difficult to predict the AQI accurately by the commonly used WRF-CMAQ model due to the uncertainty of the simulated meteorological field and emission inventory. In this paper, a novel Auto-Modal network with Attention Mechanism (AMAM) has been proposed to predict the hourly AQI with a structure of dual input path. The first path is based on bidirectional encoder representation from the transformer to predict the AQI with the historical measured meteorological data and pollutants. The other path is a baseline to improve the generalization ability based on predicting the AQI by the WRF-CMAQ model. Several experiments were undertaken to evaluate the performance of the proposed model, with the results showing that the auto-modal network achieves a superior performance for all prediction lengths compared to some state-of-the-art models.

A novel short-term carbon emission prediction model based on secondary decomposition method and long short-term memory network

Grasping the dynamics of carbon emission in time plays a key role in formulating carbon emission reduction policies. In order to provide more accurate carbon emission prediction results for planners, a novel short-term carbon emission prediction model is proposed. In this paper, the secondary decomposition technology combining ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) and variational mode decomposition (VMD) is used to process the original data, and the partial autocorrelation function (PACF) is applied to select the optimal model input. Then, the long short-term memory network (LSTM) is chosen for prediction. The secondary decomposition algorithm is innovatively introduced into the field of carbon emission prediction, and the empirical results illustrate that the secondary decomposition technology can further improve the prediction accuracy. Combined with the secondary decomposition, the R², MAPE, and RMSE of the model are improved by 2.20%, 43.08%, and 36.92% on average. And the proposed model shows excellent prediction accuracy (R² = 0.9983, MAPE = 0.0031, RMSE = 118.1610) compared with other 12 comparison models. Therefore, this model not only has potential value in the formulation of carbon emission reduction plans, but also provides a valuable reference for future carbon emission forecasting research.

Interference of Urban Morphological Parameters in the Spatiotemporal Distribution of PM10 and NO2, Taking Dalian as an Example

Recently, air quality has become a hot topic due to its profound impact on the quality of the human living environment. This paper selects the tourist city of Dalian as the research object. The concentration and spatial distribution of PM10 and NO2 in the main urban area were analyzed during the peak tourist seasons in summer and winter. Simulations were used to explore the spatial and temporal variation patterns of PM10 and NO2, combining building and road density at different scales to reveal the coupling relationship between individual pollutant components and urban parameters. The results show that the PM10 concentration is high in the center and NO2 is concentrated in the northern district of Dalian City. In an area with a radius of 100 m, the dilution ratio of building density and road density to the concentration of the PM10 pollutants is at least 43%. Still, the concentration of NO2 is only coupled with road density. This study reveals the spatial and temporal variation patterns of PM10 and NO2 in Dalian, and finds the coupling relationship between the two pollutants and building density and road density. This study provides a reference for preventing and controlling air pollution in urban planning.