Dustfall-bound polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) over the fifth largest Chinese lake: residual levels, source apportionment, and correlations with suspended particulate matter (SPM)-bound PAHs in water

Key Factors for Improving the Carcinogenic Risk Assessment of PAH Inhalation Exposure by Monte Carlo Simulation

Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) is a computational technique widely used in exposure and risk assessment. However, the result of traditional health risk assessment based on the MCS method has always been questioned due to the uncertainty introduced in parameter estimation and the difficulty in result validation. Herein, data from a large-scale investigation of individual polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) exposure was used to explore the key factors for improving the MCS method. Research participants were selected using a statistical sampling method in a typical PAH polluted city. Atmospheric PAH concentrations from 25 sampling sites in the area were detected by GC-MS and exposure parameters of participants were collected by field measurement. The incremental lifetime cancer risk (ILCR) of participants was calculated based on the measured data and considered to be the actual carcinogenic risk of the population. Predicted risks were evaluated by traditional assessment method based on MCS and three improved models including concentration-adjusted, age-stratified, and correlated-parameter-adjusted Monte Carlo methods. The goodness of fit of the models was evaluated quantitatively by comparing with the actual risk. The results showed that the average risk derived by traditional and age-stratified Monte Carlo simulation was 2.6 times higher, and the standard deviation was 3.7 times higher than the actual values. In contrast, the predicted risks of concentration- and correlated-parameter-adjusted models were in good agreement with the actual ILCR. The results of the comparison suggested that accurate simulation of exposure concentration and adjustment of correlated parameters could greatly improve the MCS. The research also reveals that the social factors related to exposure and potential relationship between variables are important issues affecting risk assessment, which require full consideration in assessment and further study in future research.

Multi-Media Exposure to Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons at Lake Chaohu, the Fifth Largest Fresh Water Lake in China: Residual Levels, Sources and Carcinogenic Risk

The residual levels of 16 priority polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in environment media and freshwater fish were collected and measured from Lake Chaohu by using Gas chromatography-mass spectrometry. Potential atmospheric sources were identified by molecular diagnostic ratios and the positive matrix factorization (PMF) method. PAH exposure doses through inhalation, intake of water and freshwater fish ingestion were estimated by the assessment model recommended by US EPA. The carcinogenic risks of PAH exposure were evaluated by probabilistic risk assessment and Monte Carlo simulation. The following results were obtained: (1) The PAH16 levels in gaseous, particulate phase, water and fish muscles were 59.4 ng·m−3, 14.2 ng·m−3, 170 ng·L−1 and 114 ng·g−1, respectively. No significant urban-rural difference was found between two sampling sites except gaseous BaPeq. The relationship between gaseous PAHs and PAH in water was detected by the application of Spearman correlation analysis. (2) Three potential sources were identified by the PMF model. The sources from biomass combustions, coal combustion and vehicle emission accounted for 43.6%, 30.6% and 25.8% of the total PAHs, respectively. (3) Fish intake has the highest lifetime average daily dose (LADD) of 3.01 × 10−6 mg·kg−1·d−1, followed by the particle inhalation with LADD of 2.94 × 10−6 mg·kg−1·d−1. (4) As a result of probabilistic cancer risk assessment, the median ILCRs were 3.1 × 10−5 to 3.3 × 10−5 in urban and rural residents, which were lower than the suggested serious level but higher than the acceptable level. In summary, the result suggests that potential carcinogenic risk exists among residents around Lake Chaohu. Fish ingestion and inhalation are two major PAH exposure pathways.