Selecting optimal conditioning parameters for landslide susceptibility: an experimental research on Aqabat Al-Sulbat, Saudi Arabia

Game-theoretic optimization of landslide susceptibility mapping: a comparative study between Bayesian-optimized basic neural network and new generation neural network models

Landslide susceptibility mapping is essential for reducing the risk of landslides and ensuring the safety of people and infrastructure in landslide-prone areas. However, little research has been done on the development of well-optimized Elman neural networks (ENN), deep neural networks (DNN), and artificial neural networks (ANN) for robust landslide susceptibility mapping (LSM). Additionally, there is a research gap regarding the use of Bayesian optimization and the derivation of SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) values from optimized models. Therefore, this study aims to optimize DNN, ENN, and ANN models using Bayesian optimization for landslide susceptibility mapping and derive SHAP values from these optimized models. The LSM models have been validated using the receiver operating characteristics curve, confusion matrix, and other twelve error matrices. The study used six machine learning-based feature selection techniques to identify the most important variables for predicting landslide susceptibility. The decision tree, random forest, and bagging feature selection models showed that slope, elevation, DFR, annual rainfall, LD, DD, RD, and LULC are influential variables, while geology and soil texture have less influence. The DNN model outperformed the other two models, covering 7839.54 km2 under the very low landslide susceptibility zone and 3613.44 km2 under the very high landslide susceptibility zone. The DNN model is better suited for generating landslide susceptibility maps, as it can classify areas with higher accuracy. The model identified several key factors that contribute to the initiation of landslides, including high elevation, built-up and agricultural land use, less vegetation, aspect (north and northwest), soil depth less than 140 cm, high rainfall, high lineament density, and a low distance from roads. The study's findings can help stakeholders make informed decisions to reduce the risk of landslides and ensure the safety of people and infrastructure in landslide-prone areas.

Evaluating the influence of road construction on landslide susceptibility in Saudi Arabia's mountainous terrain: a Bayesian-optimised deep learning approach with attention mechanism and sensitivity analysis

In the mountainous region of Asir region of Saudi Arabia, road construction activities are closely associated with frequent landslides, posing significant risks to both human life and infrastructural development. This highlights an urgent need for a highly accurate landslide susceptibility map to guide future development and risk mitigation strategies. Therefore, this study aims to (1) develop robust well-optimised deep learning (DL) models for predicting landslide susceptibility and (2) conduct a comprehensive sensitivity analysis to quantify the impact of each parameter influencing landslides. To achieve these aims, three advanced DL models-Deep Neural Networks (DNN), Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN), and Bayesian-optimised CNN with an attention mechanism-were rigorously trained and validated. Model validation included eight matrices, calibration curves, and Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) and Precision-Recall curves. Multicollinearity was examined using Variance Inflation Factor (VIF) to ensure variable independence. Additionally, sensitivity analysis was used to interpret the models and explore the influence of parameters on landslide. Results showed that road networks significantly influenced the areas identified as high-risk zones. Specifically, in the 1-km buffer around roadways, CNN_AM identified 10.42% of the area as 'Very High' susceptibility-more than double the 4.04% indicated by DNN. In the extended 2-km buffer zone around roadways, Bayesian CNN_AM continued to flag a larger area as Very High risk (7.46%), in contrast to DNN's 3.07%. In performance metrics, CNN_AM outshined DNN and regular CNN models, achieving near-perfect scores in Area Under the Curve (AUC), precision-recall, and overall accuracy. Sensitivity analysis highlighted 'Soil Texture', 'Geology', 'Distance to Road', and 'Slope' as crucial for landslide prediction. This research offers a robust, high-accuracy model that emphasises the role of road networks in landslide susceptibility, thereby providing valuable insights for planners and policymakers to proactively mitigate landslide risks in vulnerable zones near existing and future road infrastructure.

Integrating stratified best-worst method and GIS for landslide susceptibility assessment: a case study in Erzurum province (Turkey)

Landslides are among the most destructive geological disasters that seriously damage human life and infrastructures. Landslides mainly occur in mountainous regions around the world. One of the key processes to reduce these damages is to uncover landslide-exposed areas through different data-driven methods such as Geographical Information System (GIS) and multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM). In the literature, there are many studies developed with these fundamental tools. In this study, unlike the literature, a new landslide susceptibility assessment model is proposed by integrating GIS with the stratified best-worst method (S-BWM). This model has four main dimensions and 16 sub-dimensions under topography, environment-land, location, and hydrological factors, weighted with the S-BWM. A network was created considering the different states that may arise in the importance weights of these dimensions in the future. The transition probabilities of these states were predicted and injected into the classical BWM. Then, maps were created for these dimensions and classifications for each sub-dimension according to the map characteristics. Finally, the most susceptive landslide locations were determined with GIS-based calculations. To demonstrate the model's applicability, a case study was conducted for the Erzurum region, one of Turkey's landslide-prone regions. In addition, besides the landslide map, an analysis and discussion about the spatial distribution of susceptibility classes was presented, contributing to the study's robustness. In the results of landslide susceptibility analysis, landslides are higher in the range of about 1600-2500 m. Approximately 42% (35.59 sq. km) of the study area has high landslide susceptibility, while 58% (64.41 sq. km) has medium and low landslide susceptibility.

Ensemble models based on radial basis function network for landslide susceptibility mapping

Ensemble learning techniques have shown promise in improving the accuracy of landslide models by combining multiple models to achieve better predictive performance. In this study, several ensemble methods (Dagging, Bagging, and Decorate) and a radial basis function classifier (RBFC) were combined to predict landslide susceptibility in the Trung Khanh district of the Cao Bang Province, Vietnam. The ensemble models were developed using a geospatial database containing 45 historical landslides (1074 points) and thirteen influencing variables characterizing the topography, geology, land use/cover, and human activities of the study area. The performance of the models was evaluated based on the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and several other performance metrics, including positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), sensitivity (SST), specificity (SPF), accuracy (ACC), and root mean square error (RMSE). The Bagging-RBFC model with PPV = 86%, NPV = 95%, SST = 95%, SPF = 87%, ACC = 91%, RMSE = 0.297, and AUC = 98% was found to be the most accurate model for the prediction of landslide susceptibility, followed by the Dagging-RBFC, Decorate-RBFC, and single RBFC models. The study demonstrates the efficacy of ensemble learning techniques in developing reliable landslide predictive models, which can ultimately save lives and reduce infrastructure damage in landslide-prone regions worldwide.

Analysis of landslide explicative factors and susceptibility mapping in an andean context: The case of Azuay province (Ecuador)

Landslides are one of the natural phenomena with more negative impacts on landscape, natural resources, and human health worldwide. Andean geomorphology, urbanization, poverty, and inequality make it more vulnerable to landslides. This research focuses on understanding explanatory landslide factors and promoting quantitative susceptibility mapping. Both tasks supply valuable knowledge for the Andean region, focusing on territorial planning and risk management support. This work addresses the following questions using the province of Azuay-Ecuador as a study area: (i) How do EFA and LR assess the significance of landslide occurrence factors? (ii) Which are the most significant landslide occurrence factors for susceptibility analysis in an Andean context? (iii) What is the landslide susceptibility map for the study area? The methodological framework uses quantitative techniques to describe landslide behavior. EFA and LR models are based on a historical inventory of 665 records. Both identified NDVI, NDWI, altitude, fault density, road density, and PC2 as the most significant factors. The latter factor represents the standard deviation, maximum value of precipitation, and rainfall in the wet season (January, February, and March). The EFA model was built from 7 latent factors, which explained 55% of the accumulated variance, with a medium item complexity of 1.5, a RMSR of 0.02, and a TLI of 0.89. This technique also identified TWI, fault distance, plane curvature, and road distance as important factors. LR's model, with AIC of 964.63, residual deviance of 924.63, AUC of 0.92, accuracy of 0.84, and Kappa of 0.68, also shows statistical significance for slope, roads density, geology, and land cover factors. This research encompasses a time-series analysis of NDVI, NDWI, and precipitation, including vegetation and weather dynamism for landslide occurrence. Finally, this methodological framework replaces traditional qualitative models based on expert knowledge, for quantitative approaches for the study area and the Andean region.

Blind identification of active landslides in urban areas: a new set of comprehensive criteria

More than 70% of catastrophic landslides were previously unknown and brought tremendous losses to human life and property in urban regions; therefore, there is an urgent need for early identification of active landslides to eliminate landslide risk at the early stage. However, early identification of landslides has always been a worldwide challenge due to high concealment, steep topography, inaccessible location, and sudden onset. This work suggests a new set of comprehensive criteria for the early identification of landslides by integrating surface deformation, geological, topographic, geomorphological, and disaster-failure features. This set of criteria is universally applicable with no use of the prior knowledge of landslide locations (blind identification) and is successfully validated by a field survey. This work selects the Xuecheng region, a hard-hit area of landslides, as the study area and employs multisource data (seismic, geological, topographic, meteorological, SAR, and optical remote sensing data) and time-series InSAR technology to identify active landslides and reveal their deformation rules. Some new viewpoints are suggested. (1) The new comprehensive criteria synthesize the surface deformation, disaster-controlling, and disaster-inducing characteristics and achieve relatively high accuracy by field validation. (2) Forty-seven active landslides are identified in Xuecheng with no use of the prior knowledge of landslides. The soft rocks or soft-hard interbeddings, tectonic movement, fluvial undercutting and eroding, precipitation, earthquakes, and human engineering activity control or induce the development of these active landslides. (3) Two giant landslides that significantly threaten human lives and properties and exhibit different movement modes are selected to highlight the deformation rules of active landslides under the coupled action of poor lithologic condition, tectonic movement, river erosion, precipitation, and human engineering activity. The suggested new criteria can be applied to other landslide hard-hit urban regions and contribute to the timely and effective prevention and control of catastrophic landslides, reduction of enormous disaster losses, and rational management of the environment.

Developing Robust Flood Susceptibility Model with Small Numbers of Parameters in Highly Fertile Regions of Northwest Bangladesh for Sustainable Flood and Agriculture Management

The present study intends to improve the robustness of a flood susceptibility (FS) model with a small number of parameters in data-scarce areas, such as northwest Bangladesh, by employing machine learning-based sensitivity analysis and an analytical hierarchy process (AHP). In this study, the nine most relevant flood elements (such as distance from the river, rainfall, and drainage density) were chosen as flood conditioning variables for modeling. The FS model was produced using AHP technique. We used an empirical and binormal receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves for validating the models. We performed Sensitivity analyses using a random forest (RF)-based mean Gini decline (MGD), mean decrease accuracy (MDA), and information gain ratio to find out the sensitive flood conditioning variables. After performing sensitivity analysis, the least sensitivity variables were eliminated. We re-ran the model with the rest of the parameters to enhance the model’s performance. Based on previous studies and the AHP weighting approach, the general soil type, rainfall, distance from river/canal (Dr), and land use/land cover (LULC) had higher factor weights of 0.22, 0.21, 0.19, and 0.15, respectively. The FS model without sensitivity and with sensitivity performed well in the present study. According to the RF-based sensitivity and information gain ratio, the most sensitive factors were rainfall, soil type, slope, and elevation, while curvature and drainage density were less sensitive parameters, which were excluded in re-running the FS model with just vital parameters. Using empirical and binormal ROC curves, the new FS model yields higher AUCs of 0.835 and 0.822, respectively. It is discovered that the predicted model’s robustness may be maintained or increased by removing less relevant factors. This study will aid decision-makers in developing flood management plans for the examined region.

A Novel Hybrid Model for Developing Groundwater Potentiality Model Using High Resolution Digital Elevation Model (DEM) Derived Factors

The present work aims to build a unique hybrid model by combining six fuzzy operator feature selection-based techniques with logistic regression (LR) for producing groundwater potential models (GPMs) utilising high resolution DEM-derived parameters in Saudi Arabia’s Bisha area. The current work focuses exclusively on the influence of DEM-derived parameters on GPMs modelling, without considering other variables. AND, OR, GAMMA 0.75, GAMMA 0.8, GAMMA 0.85, and GAMMA 0.9 are six hybrid models based on fuzzy feature selection. The GPMs were validated by using empirical and binormal receiver operating characteristic curves (ROC). An RF-based sensitivity analysis was performed in order to examine the influence of GPM settings. Six hybrid algorithms and one unique hybrid model have predicted 1835–2149 km2 as very high and 3235–4585 km2 as high groundwater potential regions. The AND model (ROCe-AUC: 0.81; ROCb-AUC: 0.804) outperformed the other models based on ROC’s area under curve (AUC). A novel hybrid model was constructed by combining six GPMs (considering as variables) with the LR model. The AUC of ROCe and ROCb revealed that the novel hybrid model outperformed existing fuzzy-based GPMs (ROCe: 0.866; ROCb: 0.892). With DEM-derived parameters, the present work will help to improve the effectiveness of GPMs for developing sustainable groundwater management plans.