Elucidating competing strategic behaviors using prospect theory, system dynamics, and evolutionary game: a case of transjurisdictional water pollution problem in China

Cooperation with dynamic asymmetric evaluation in complex networks from a risk perspective

The choice of strategy exposes individuals to the risk of betrayal. This induces individuals' irrational tendencies in strategy selection, which further influences the emergence of cooperative behavior. However, the underlying mechanisms connecting risk perception and the emergence of cooperation are still not fully understood. To address this, the classic evolutionary game model on complex networks is extended. We depict the interaction between strategy imitation and payoff evaluation from two perspectives: dynamic adjustment and irrational assessment. Specifically, the probability distortion involved in the dynamic selection of imitative reference points, as well as the asymmetric psychological utility associated with reference point dependence, is emphasized. Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate that individual irrational cognition induced by the risk of strategy selection can promote the emergence of cooperative behavior. Among them, the risk sensitivity within psychological utility has the most significant moderating effect. Moreover, the promoting effect of strong heterogeneity and high clustering in the network topology on cooperation under risk scenarios has been clarified. Additionally, the influence of initial states on the emergence of cooperation follows a step-like pattern. This research offers valuable insights for further exploring the cooperation mechanisms among irrational agents, even in scenarios involving the regulation of group cooperation behavior in risky situations.

The worsening divergence of biotechnology: the importance of risk culture

In the last 20 years, the field of biotechnology has made significant progress and attracted substantial investments, leading to different paths of technological modernization among nations. As a result, there is now an international divide in the commercial and intellectual capabilities of biotechnology, and the implications of this divergence are not well understood. This raises important questions about why global actors are motivated to participate in biotechnology modernization, the challenges they face in achieving their goals, and the possible future direction of global biotechnology development. Using the framework of prospect theory, this paper explores the role of risk culture as a fundamental factor contributing to this divergence. It aims to assess the risks and benefits associated with the early adoption of biotechnology and the regulatory frameworks that shape the development and acceptance of biotechnological innovations. By doing so, it provides valuable insights into the future of biotechnology development and its potential impact on the global landscape.

Optimal operation mode selection of sponge city PPP projects using IFSS-prospect theory and VIKOR approach: a case study in China

The construction of sponge city (SC) public private partnership (PPP) projects is considered to be a feasible measure to solve the "water problems" in China. To ensure the success of SC PPP projects, how to select an appropriate operation mode for SC PPP projects is an urgent problem to be solved. In this paper, first, the evaluation index system of operation mode is established from the aspects of project characteristics, government capabilities, project benefits, project implementation, and cooperative partnership. Second, the DEMATEL method and entropy method are introduced to overcome the drawbacks of a single method, and the combination weights are calculated by game theory. Finally, the decision-making model based on intuitionistic fuzzy soft set (IFSS)-prospect theory and VIKOR approach is constructed to select operation mode for SC PPP projects. In this paper, the framework is applied to select an operation mode for the Qingshan demonstration zone project, and its feasibility and effectiveness are verified through sensitivity analysis and comparative analysis. The results show that BOT is the optimal operation mode for SC PPP projects, and government capabilities and project implementation are critical factors to be considered when selecting an operation mode. This study can provide guidance to the government in the OMS of SC PPP projects and improve the sustainability of the projects.

Spatial-temporal variation and driving factors decomposition of agricultural grey water footprint in China

The management of agricultural water pollution is crucial to alleviate the water crisis and promote regional sustainable development. Therefore, it is necessary to clarify the spatial-temporal variation characteristics of the agricultural grey water footprint (GWF) and accurately identify its main influencing factors, aiming at formulating differentiated regional management strategies. Based on this, the agricultural GWFs of 31 provincial regions in China from 2011 to 2019 were firstly calculated, and then the spatial-temporal variation characteristics of agricultural GWF were analyzed using the ArcGIS software and Standard Deviational Ellipse (SDE) method. Finally, the Generalized Divisia Index Method (GDIM) was creatively introduced to decompose the factors of agricultural GWF change and their respective contributions at the national and provincial levels. The main results are as follow: (1) Agricultural GWF in China decreased on the whole and showed significant provincial differences. Among them, the agricultural GWF of Henan Province was the largest while that of Shanghai City was the smallest. Compared with 2011, most provinces saw a decrease in agricultural GWF in 2019 while Yunnan, Tibet, Qinghai, Ningxia and Xinjiang Provinces achieved growth. (2) Areas with higher agricultural GDP generally had higher agricultural GWF. The spatial distribution of agricultural GWF and breeding GWF generally tended to be consistent, with the lower value in northwest and southeast of China and higher value in the northeast and southwest of China. Meanwhile, the mean center of SDE of agricultural GWF was located in Henan Province from 2011 to 2018, and shifted to Shaanxi Province in 2019, showing a slight northwest shift. (3) Agricultural GWF intensity and agricultural GDP had the largest restraining effect and driving effect on agricultural GWF growth, respectively. Additionally, China has achieved decoupling between agricultural GWF and agricultural GDP, reflecting that the patterns of agricultural production and consumption have become more sustainable. The findings of this study can provide important decision-making insights for agricultural water pollution management and industry adjustment.