Quantifying spatiotemporal dynamics of vegetation and its differentiation mechanism based on geographical detector

Considering Climatic Factors, Time Lag, and Cumulative Effects of Climate Change and Human Activities on Vegetation NDVI in Yinshanbeilu, China

Climate and human activities are the basic driving forces that control and influence the spatial distribution and change of vegetation. Using trend analysis, the Hurst index, correlation analysis, the Moran index, path analysis, residual analysis, and other methods, the effects of human activities and climate factors on vegetation change were analyzed. The results show that: (1) The research area's normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) exhibited a substantial upward trend from 2001 to 2020, increasing at a rate of 0.003/a, and the vegetation cover was generally healthy. The generally constant NDVI region made up 78.45% of the entire area, and the grassland, cultivated land, and forest land showed the most visible NDVI aggregation features. (2) The Vegetation is mainly promoted by water and heat, particularly precipitation, have a major impact on plants, with the direct influence of precipitation on vegetation growth being much greater than the indirect effect through the temperature. (3) The trend of NDVI residuals showed obvious spatial variability, presenting a distribution characteristic of high in the south and low in the north. The results of this study can provide a basis for the scientific layout of ecological protection and restoration projects in the Yinshanbeilu area.

Spatiotemporal Evolution and Driving Forces of Vegetation Cover in the Urumqi River Basin

It is important to determine long-term changes in vegetation cover, and the associated driving forces, to better understand the natural and human-induced factors affecting vegetation growth. We calculated the fractional vegetation coverage (FVC) of the Urumqi River basin and selected seven natural factors (the clay and sand contents of surface soils, elevation, aspect, slope, precipitation and temperature) and one human factor (land use type). We then used the Sen-Man-Kendall method to calculate the changing trend of the FVC from 2000 to 2020. We used the optimal parameters-based geographical detector (OPGD) model to quantitatively analyze the influence of each factor on the change in vegetation coverage in the basin. The FVC of the Urumqi River basin fluctuated from 2000 to 2020, with average values between 0.22 and 0.33. The areas with no and low vegetation coverage accounted for two-thirds of the total area, whereas the areas with a medium, medium-high and high FVC accounted for one-third of the total area. The upper reaches of the river basin are glacial and forest areas with no vegetation coverage and a high FVC. The middle reaches are concentrated in areas of urban construction with a medium FVC. The lower reaches are in unstable farmland with a medium and high FVC and deserts with a low FVC and no vegetation. From the perspective of the change trend, the areas with an improved FVC accounted for 62.54% of the basin, stable areas accounted for 5.66% and degraded areas accounted for 31.8%. The FVC showed an increasing trend in the study area. The improvement was mainly in the areas of urban construction and desert. Degradation occurred in the high-elevation areas, whereas the transitional zone was unchanged. The analysis of driving forces showed that the human factor explained more of the changes in the FVC than the natural factors in the order: land use type (0.244) > temperature (0.216) > elevation (0.205) > soil clay content (0.172) > precipitation (0.163) > soil sand content (0.138) > slope (0.059) > aspect (0.014). Apart from aspect, the explanatory power (Q value) of the interaction of each factor was higher than that of the single factor. Risk detection showed that each factor had an interval in which the change in the FVC was inhibited or promoted. The optimum elevation interval of the study area was 1300-2700 m and the greatest inhibition of the FVC was seen above 3540 m. Too much or too little precipitation inhibited vegetation coverage.

Analysis of Spatiotemporal Heterogeneity of Glacier Mass Balance on the Northern and Southern Slopes of the Central Tianshan Mountains, China

Glacier mass balance can visually indicate the degree of glacier response to climate change. The mountain glaciers are an essential source of recharge for rivers in arid regions and play a vital role in maintaining regional ecological stability and production life. This paper drives a spatially distributed degree-day model using multi-source remote sensing data such as MOD11C3 and TRMM3B43 to simulate the mass balance in the Tianshan Mountains’ south and north slope basins. The spatiotemporal heterogeneity of the mass balance was compared and attributed using a Geographical detector. The results show that: (1) The glaciers in the north and south basins are mainly distributed at an altitude of 3900–4300 m, and the total glacier area accounts for 85.71%. The number of less than 1 km2 glaciers is the most in the whole region. (2) During the study period, the glaciers in the north and south basins were negative (−465.95 mm w.e.) an entire interannual change rate was −28.36 mm w.e./a. The overall trend of ablation can be divided into two stages: from 2000 to 2010a, the persistence increased, and from 2010 to 2016a, the volatility decreased. (3) In the attribution of mass balance, the factors affecting glacier mass balance can be divided into two parts: climate and topography. The cumulative contribution rate of climate factors in Kaidu is nearly 20% higher than that of topographic factors, but the contribution rate of climate factors in Manas is only 7.3% higher. Therefore, the change of glacier mass balance in the Kaidu river basin is more driven by climate factors, while the glacier mass balance in the Manas river basin is more affected by the combination of climate and topographic factors. (4) The climate accumulation is the dominant factor in the Manas river basin (69.55%); for the ablation area, the Kaidu river basin is dominated by climate (70.85%), and the Manas river basin is dominated by topographic factors (54.11%). Due to the driving force of climate and topographic factors and the different coupling modes, glacier mass balance’s spatiotemporal heterogeneity in the north and south slope basins is caused. This study contributes to analyzing the mechanism of regional changes in the glacier mass balance. It provides a scientific basis for investigating the characteristics of water resource changes and water resource regulation in the north and south slope basins of the Tianshan Mountains.