Water quality index modeling using random forest and improved SMO algorithm for support vector machine in Saf-Saf river basin

Interpreting optimised data-driven solution with explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) for water quality assessment for better decision-making in pollution management

In Saudi Arabia, water pollution and drinking water scarcity pose a major challenge and jeopardise the achievement of sustainable development goals. The urgent need for rapid and accurate monitoring and assessment of water quality requires sophisticated, data-driven solutions for better decision-making in water management. This study aims to develop optimised data-driven models for comprehensive water quality assessment to enable informed decisions that are critical for sustainable water resources management. We used an entropy-weighted arithmetic technique to calculate the Water Quality Index (WQI), which integrates the World Health Organization (WHO) standards for various water quality parameters. Our methodology incorporated advanced machine learning (ML) models, including decision trees, random forests (RF) and correlation analyses to select features essential for identifying critical water quality parameters. We developed and optimised data-driven models such as gradient boosting machines (GBM), deep neural networks (DNN) and RF within the H2O API framework to ensure efficient data processing and handling. Interpretation of these models was achieved through a three-pronged explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) approach: model diagnosis with residual analysis, model parts with permutation-based feature importance and model profiling with partial dependence plots (PDP), accumulated local effects (ALE) plots and individual conditional expectation (ICE) plots. The quantitative results revealed insightful findings: fluoride and residual chlorine had the highest and lowest entropy weights, respectively, indicating their differential effects on water quality. Over 35% of the water samples were categorised as 'unsuitable' for consumption, highlighting the urgency of taking action to improve water quality. Amongst the optimised models, the Random Forest (model 79) and the Deep Neural Network (model 81) proved to be the most effective and showed robust predictive abilities with R2 values of 0.96 and 0.97 respectively for testing dataset. Model profiling as XAI highlighted the significant influence of key parameters such as nitrate, total hardness and pH on WQI predictions. These findings enable targeted water quality improvement measures that are in line with sustainable water management goals. Therefore, our study demonstrates the potential of advanced, data-driven methods to revolutionise water quality assessment in Saudi Arabia. By providing a more nuanced understanding of water quality dynamics and enabling effective decision-making, these models contribute significantly to the sustainable management of valuable water resources.

Hybrid WT-CNN-GRU-based model for the estimation of reservoir water quality variables considering spatio-temporal features

Water quality indicators (WQIs), such as chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) and dissolved oxygen (DO), are crucial for understanding and assessing the health of aquatic ecosystems. Precise prediction of these indicators is fundamental for the efficient administration of rivers, lakes, and reservoirs. This research utilized two unique DL algorithms-namely, convolutional neural network (CNNs) and gated recurrent units (GRUs)-alongside their amalgamation, CNN-GRU, to precisely gauge the concentration of these indicators within a reservoir. Moreover, to optimize the outcomes of the developed hybrid model, we considered the impact of a decomposition technique, specifically the wavelet transform (WT). In addition to these efforts, we created two distinct machine learning (ML) algorithms-namely, random forest (RF) and support vector regression (SVR)-to demonstrate the superior performance of deep learning algorithms over individual ML ones. We initially gathered WQIs from diverse locations and varying depths within the reservoir using an AAQ-RINKO device in the study area to achieve this. It is important to highlight that, despite utilizing diverse data-driven models in water quality estimation, a significant gap persists in the existing literature regarding implementing a comprehensive hybrid algorithm. This algorithm integrates the wavelet transform, convolutional neural network (CNN), and gated recurrent unit (GRU) methodologies to estimate WQIs accurately within a spatiotemporal framework. Subsequently, the effectiveness of the models that were developed was assessed utilizing various statistical metrics, encompassing the correlation coefficient (r), root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) throughout both the training and testing phases. The findings demonstrated that the WT-CNN-GRU model exhibited better performance in comparison with the other algorithms by 13% (SVR), 13% (RF), 9% (CNN), and 8% (GRU) when R-squared and DO were considered as evaluation indices and WQIs, respectively.

A support vector machine based drought index for regional drought analysis

The increased global warming has increased the likelihood of recurrent drought hazards. Potential links between the frequency of extreme weather events and global warming have been suggested by earlier research. The spatial variability of meteorological factors over short distances can cause distortions in conclusions or limit the scope of drought analysis in a particular region when extreme values predominate. Therefore, it is challenging to make trustworthy judgments regarding the spatiotemporal characteristics of regional drought. This study aims to improve the quality and accuracy of regional drought characterization and the process of continuous monitoring. The new drought indicator presented in this study is called the Support Vector Machine based drought index (SVM-DI). It is created by adding different weights to an SVM-based X-bar chart that is displayed with regional precipitation aggregate data. The SVM-DI application site is located in Pakistan's northern area. Using the Pearson correlation coefficient for pairwise comparison, the study compares the SVM-DI and the Regional Standard Precipitation Index (RSPI). Interestingly, compared to RSPI, SVM-DI shows more pronounced regional characteristics in its correlations with other meteorological stations, with a significantly lower Coefficient of Variation. These results confirm that SVM-DI is a useful tool for regional drought analysis. The SVM-DI methodology offers a unique way to reduce the impact of extreme values and outliers when aggregating regional precipitation data.

Proportional impact prediction model of coating material on nitrate leaching of slow-release Urea Super Granules (USG) using machine learning and RSM technique

An accurate assessment of nitrate leaching is important for efficient fertiliser utilisation and groundwater pollution reduction. However, past studies could not efficiently model nitrate leaching due to utilisation of conventional algorithms. To address the issue, the current research employed advanced machine learning algorithms, viz., Support Vector Machine, Artificial Neural Network, Random Forest, M5 Tree (M5P), Reduced Error Pruning Tree (REPTree) and Response Surface Methodology (RSM) to predict and optimize nitrate leaching. In this study, Urea Super Granules (USG) with three different coatings were used for the experiment in the soil columns, containing 1 kg soil with fertiliser placed in between. Statistical parameters, namely correlation coefficient, Mean Absolute Error, Willmott index, Root Mean Square Error and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency were used to evaluate the performance of the ML techniques. In addition, a comparison was made in the test set among the machine learning models in which, RSM outperformed the rest of the models irrespective of coating type. Neem oil/ Acacia oil(ml): clay/sulfer (g): age (days) for minimum nitrate leaching was found to be 2.61: 1.67: 2.4 for coating of USG with bentonite clay and neem oil without heating, 2.18: 2: 1 for bentonite clay and neem oil with heating and 1.69: 1.64: 2.18 for coating USG with sulfer and acacia oil. The research would provide guidelines to researchers and policymakers to select the appropriate tool for precise prediction of nitrate leaching, which would optimise the yield and the benefit-cost ratio.

An innovative approach for predicting groundwater TDS using optimized ensemble machine learning algorithms at two levels of modeling strategy

Groundwater salinization in coastal aquifers is a major socioeconomic challenge in Oman and many other regions worldwide due to several anthropogenic activities and natural drivers. Therefore, assessing the salinization of groundwater resources is crucial to ensure the protection of water resources and sustainable management. The aim of this study is to apply a novel approach using predictive optimized ensemble trees-based (ETB) machine learning models, namely Catboost regression (CBR), Extra trees regression (ETR), and Bagging regression (BA), at two levels of modeling strategy for predicting groundwater TDS as an indicator for seawater intrusion in a coastal aquifer, Oman. At level 1, ETR and CBR models were used as base models or inputs for BA in level 2. The results show that the models at level 1 (i.e., ETR and CBR) yielded satisfactory results using a limited number of inputs (Cl, K, and Sr) from a few sets of 40 groundwater wells. The BA model at level 2 improved the overall performance of the modeling by extracting more information from ETR and CBR models at level 1 models. At level 2, the BA model achieved a significant improvement in accuracy (MSE = 0.0002, RSR = 0.062, R2 = 0.995 and NSE = 0.996) compared to each individual model of ETR (MSE = 0.0007, RSR = 0.245, R2 = 0.98 and NSE = 0.94), and CBR (MSE = 0.0035, RSR = 0.258, R2 = 0.933 and NSE = 0.934) at level 1 models in the testing dataset. BA model at level 2 outperformed all models regarding predictive accuracy, best generalization of new data, and matching the locations of the polluted and unpolluted wells. Our approach predicts groundwater TDS with high accuracy and thus provides early warnings of water quality deterioration along coastal aquifers which will improve water resources sustainability.

Optimisation and interpretation of machine and deep learning models for improved water quality management in Lake Loktak

Loktak Lake, one of the largest freshwater lakes in Manipur, India, is critical for the eco-hydrology and economy of the region, but faces deteriorating water quality due to urbanisation, anthropogenic activities, and domestic sewage. Addressing the urgent need for effective pollution management, this study aims to assess the lake's water quality status using the water quality index (WQI) and develop advanced machine learning (ML) tools for WQI assessment and ML model interpretation to improve pollution management decision making. The WQI was assessed using entropy-based weighting arithmetic and three ML models - Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM), Random Forest (RF) and Deep Neural Network (DNN) - were optimised using a grid search algorithm in the H2O Application Programming Interface (API). These models were validated by various metrics and interpreted globally and locally via Partial Dependency Plot (PDP), Accumulated Local Effect (ALE) and SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP). The results show a WQI range of 72.38-100, with 52.7% of samples categorised as very poor. The RF model outperformed GBM and DNN and showed the highest accuracy and generalisation ability, which is reflected in the superior R2 values (0.97 in training, 0.9 in test) and the lower root mean square error (RMSE). RF's minimal margin of error and reliable feature interpretation contrasted with DNN's larger margin of error and inconsistency, which affected its usefulness for decision making. Turbidity was found to be a critical predictive feature in all models, significantly influencing WQI, with other variables such as pH and temperature also playing an important role. SHAP dependency plots illustrated the direct relationship between key water quality parameters such as turbidity and WQI predictions. The novelty of this study lies in its comprehensive approach to the evaluation and interpretation of ML models for WQI estimation, which provides a nuanced understanding of water quality dynamics in Loktak Lake. By identifying the most effective ML models and key predictive functions, this study provides invaluable insights for water quality management and paves the way for targeted strategies to monitor and improve water quality in this vital freshwater ecosystem.

Feature multi-level attention spatio-temporal graph residual network: A novel approach to ammonia nitrogen concentration prediction in water bodies by integrating external influences and spatio-temporal correlations

Accurate prediction of ammonia nitrogen concentration in water is of great significance for urban water quality management and pollution early warning. In order to improve the prediction accuracy of ammonia nitrogen concentration in water, this study developed a novel model based on graph neural networks called Feature Multi-level Attention Spatio-Temporal Graph Residual Network (FMA-STGRN). The FMA-STGRN model utilizes external influencing factors such as meteorological factors and point of interest data, as well as the spatio-temporal correlation information of ammonia nitrogen concentration between water quality monitoring stations, to accurately predict the concentration of ammonia nitrogen in water. The model consists of four main components: feature multi-level attention module, spatial graph convolution module, temporal-domain residual decomposition module, and feature fusion and output module. Through the organic combination of these four modules, FMA-STGRN can more effectively explore the complex spatio-temporal correlation relationships between water quality monitoring stations and more accurately integrate and utilize external influencing factors, thereby improving the prediction accuracy of ammonia nitrogen concentration in water. Experimental results show that the FMA-STGRN model outperforms other benchmark models such as RF, MART, MLP, LSTM, GRU, ST-GCN, and ST-GAT in various aspects. In addition, a series of feature ablation experiments were conducted to further reveal the key contributions of meteorological factors and point of interest data to the model performance. Overall, our research provides a powerful and practical tool for water quality monitoring and urban water management, with broad application prospects.

Forecasting water quality variable using deep learning and weighted averaging ensemble models

Water quality variables, including chlorophyll-a (Chl-a), play a pivotal role in comprehending and evaluating the condition of aquatic ecosystems. Chl-a, a pigment present in diverse aquatic organisms, notably algae and cyanobacteria, serves as a valuable indicator of water quality. Thus, the objectives of this study encompass: (1) the assessment of the predictive capabilities of four deep learning (DL) models - namely, recurrent neural network (RNN), long short-term memory (LSTM), gated recurrence unit (GRU), and temporal convolutional network (TCN) - in forecasting Chl-a concentrations; (2) the incorporation of these DL models into ensemble models (EMs) employing genetic algorithm (GA) and non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm (NSGA-II) to harness the strengths of each standalone model; and (3) the evaluation of the efficacy of the developed EMs. Utilizing data collected at 15-min intervals from Small Prespa Lake (SPL) in Greece, the models employed hourly Chl-a concentration lag times, extending up to 6 h, as models' inputs to forecast Chla (t+1). The proposed models underwent training on 70% of the dataset and were subsequently validated on the remaining 30%. Among the standalone DL models, the GRU model exhibited superior performance in Chl-a forecasting, surpassing the RNN, LSTM, and TCN models by 8%, 2%, and 2%, respectively. Furthermore, the integration of DL models through single-objective GA and multi-objective NSGA-II optimization algorithms yielded hybrid models adept at effectively forecasting both low and high Chl-a concentrations. The ensemble model based on NSGA-II outperformed standalone DL models as well as the GA-based model across a range of evaluation indices. For instance, considering the R-squared metric, the study's findings demonstrated that the EM-NSGA-II stands out with exceptional effectiveness compared to DL and EM-GA models, showcasing improvements of 14% (RNN), 8% (LSTM), 6% (GRU), 8% (TCN), and 3% (EM-GA) during the testing phase.

Evaluating the necessity of post-processing techniques on d4PDF data for extreme climate assessment

The occurrence and severity of extreme precipitation events have been increasing globally. Although numerous projections have been proposed and developed for evaluating the climate change impacts, most models suffer from significant bias error due to the coarse resolution of the climate datasets, which affects the accuracy of the climate change assessment. Therefore, in this study, post-processing techniques (interpolation and bias correction methods) were adopted on the database for Policy Decision Making for Future Climate Change (d4PDF) model for extreme climatic flood events simulation in the Chao Phraya River Basin, Thailand, under + 4-K future climate simulation. Due to the limited number of the rain gages, the gradient plus inverse distance squared interpolation method (combination of multiple linear regression and distance weighting methods) was applied in this study. In the bias correction methods, the additional setting of monthly and seasonal periods was adjusted. The proposed bias correction approach deployed gamma distribution combined with generalized Pareto distribution setting with the seasonal period for the rainy season datasets, whereas only the gamma setting was applied with the monthly period during the dry season. The outcomes revealed that the proposed method could react to extreme rainfall events, expand dry days during dry season, and intensify rainfall amount during rainy season. The post-processing d4PDF trends of six sea surface temperature (SST) patterns (consists of 90 ensemble members) of two periods (near future: 2051-2070 and far future: 2091-2110) recorded the highest and lowest amounts of annual rainfalls of 4,450 mm/year in mid-stream of Nan River and 710 mm/year in the lower CPRB, respectively. Notably, the significant variances noted in the rainfall patterns among ensembles, demanding further investigation in future climate change, impact studies. The findings of the study provided novel insights on the importance of proper post-processing techniques for improving the robustness of d4PDF in climate change impacts assessment.

Drinking Water Quality Assessment Using a Fuzzy Inference System Method: A Case Study of Rome (Italy)

Drinking water quality assessment is a major issue today, as it is crucial to supply safe drinking water to ensure the well-being of society. Predicting drinking water quality helps strengthen water management and fight water pollution; technologies and practices for drinking water quality assessment are continuously improving; artificial intelligence methods prove their efficiency in this domain. This research effort seeks a hierarchical fuzzy model for predicting drinking water quality in Rome (Italy). The Mamdani fuzzy inference system is applied with different defuzzification methods. The proposed model includes three fuzzy intermediate models and one fuzzy final model. Each model consists of three input parameters and 27 fuzzy rules. A water quality assessment model is developed with a dataset that considers nine parameters (alkalinity, hardness, pH, Ca, Mg, fluoride, sulphate, nitrates, and iron). These nine parameters of drinking water are anticipated to be within the acceptable limits set to protect human health. Fuzzy-logic-based methods have been demonstrated to be appropriate to address uncertainty and subjectivity in drinking water quality assessment; they are an effective method for managing complicated, uncertain water systems and predicting drinking water quality. The proposed method can provide an effective solution for complex systems; this method can be modified easily to improve performance.

Assessing and forecasting water quality in the Danube River by using neural network approaches

The health and quality of the Danube River ecosystems is strongly affected by the nutrients loads (N and P), degree of contamination with hazardous substances or with oxygen depleting substances, microbiological contamination and changes in river flow patterns and sediment transport regimes. Water quality index (WQI) is an important dynamic attribute in the characterization of the Danube River ecosystems health and quality. The WQ index scores do not reflect the actual condition of water quality. We proposed a new forecast scheme for water quality based on the following qualitative classes very good (0-25), good (26-50), poor (51-75), very poor (76-100) and extremely polluted/non-potable (>100). Water quality forecasting by using Artificial Intelligence (AI) is a meaningful method of protecting public health because of its possibility to provide early warning regarding harmful water pollutants. The main objective of the present study is to forecast the WQI time series data based on water physical, chemical and flow status parameters and associated WQ index scores. The Cascade-forward network (CFN) models, along with the Radial Basis Function Network (RBF) as a benchmark model, were developed using data from 2011 to 2017 and WQI forecasts were produced for the period 2018-2019 at all sites. The nineteen input water quality features represent the initial dataset. Moreover, the Random Forest (RF) algorithm refines the initial dataset by selecting eight features considered the most relevant. Both datasets are employed for constructing the predictive models. According to the results of appraisal, the CFN models produced better outcomes (MSE = 0.083/0,319 and R-value 0.940/0.911 in quarter I/quarter IV) than the RBF models. In addition, results show that both the CFN and RBF models could be effective for predicting time series data for water quality when the eight most relevant features are used as input variables. Also, the CFNs provide the most accurate short-term forecasting curves which reproduce the WQI for the first and fourth quarters (the cold season). The second and third quarters presented a slightly lower accuracy. The reported results clearly demonstrate that CFNs successfully forecast the short-term WQI as they may learn historic patterns and determine the nonlinear relationships between the input and output variables.

Prediction of ammonia contaminants in the aquaculture ponds using soft computing coupled with wavelet analysis

Intensive aquaculture practices generate highly polluted organic effluents such as biological oxygen demand (BOD), alkalinity, total ammonia, nitrates, calcium, potassium, sodium, iron, and chlorides. In recent years, Inland aquaculture ponds in the western delta region of Andhra Pradesh have been intensively expanding and are more concerned about negative environmental impact. This paper presents the water quality analysis of aquaculture waters in 64 random locations in the western delta region of Andhra Pradesh. The average water quality index (WQI) was 126, with WQI values ranging from 21 to 456. Approximately 78% of the water samples were very poor and unsafe for drinking and domestic usage. The mean ammonia content in aquaculture water was 0.15 mg/L, and 78% of the samples were above the acceptable limit set by the World Health Organization (WHO) of 0.5 mg/L. The quantity of ammonia in the water ranged from 0.05 to 2.8 mg/L. The results show that ammonia levels exceed the permissible limits and are a significant concern in aquaculture waters due to toxicity. This paper also presents an intelligent soft computing approach to predicting ammonia levels in aquaculture ponds, using two novel approaches, such as the pelican optimization algorithm (POA) and POA coupled with discrete wavelet analysis (DWT-POA). The modified and enhanced POA with DWT can converge to higher performance when compared to standard POA, with an average percentage error of 1.964 and a coefficient of determination (R²) value of 0.822. Moreover, it was found that prediction models were reliable with good accuracy and simple to execute. Furthermore, these prediction models could help stakeholders and policymakers to make a real-time prediction of ammonia levels in intensive farming inland aquaculture ponds.

Evaluation of machine learning algorithms for groundwater quality modeling

Groundwater quality is typically measured through water sampling and lab analysis. The field-based measurements are costly and time-consuming when applied over a large domain. In this study, we developed a machine learning-based framework to map groundwater quality in an unconfined aquifer in the north of Iran. Groundwater samples were provided from 248 monitoring wells across the region. The groundwater quality index (GWQI) in each well was measured and classified into four classes: very poor, poor, good, and excellent, according to their cut-off values. Factors affecting groundwater quality, including distance to industrial centers, distance to residential areas, population density, aquifer transmissivity, precipitation, evaporation, geology, and elevation, were identified and prepared in the GIS environment. Six machine learning classifiers, including extreme gradient boosting (XGB), random forest (RF), support vector machine (SVM), artificial neural networks (ANN), k-nearest neighbor (KNN), and Gaussian classifier model (GCM), were used to establish relationships between GWQI and its controlling factors. The algorithms were evaluated using the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) and statistical efficiencies (overall accuracy, precision, recall, and F-1 score). Accuracy assessment showed that ML algorithms provided high accuracy in predicting groundwater quality. However, RF was selected as the optimum model given its higher accuracy (overall accuracy, precision, and recall = 0.92; ROC = 0.95). The trained RF model was used to map GWQI classes across the entire region. Results showed that the poor GWQI class is dominant in the study area (covering 66% of the study area), followed by good (19% of the area), very poor (14% of the area), and excellent (< 1% of the area) classes. An area of very poor GWQI was observed in the north. Feature analysis indicated that the distance to industrial locations is the main factor affecting groundwater quality in the region. The study provides a cost-effective methodology in groundwater quality modeling that can be duplicated in other regions with similar hydrological and geological settings.

Water and wastewater quality prediction: current trends and challenges in the implementation of artificial neural network

Traditional freshwater supplies have been over-abstracted in the current global problem of water scarcity. Through the analysis of complex experimental and real-time data, to improve the activity of water and wastewater treatment (WWT) systems, an artificial neural network (ANN), a computational model inspired by the human brain, and its variants were created. This review paper focuses on recent trends and advances in modeling and simulating different water and wastewater systems using ANN. This study uses ANN in watershed management, impurity removal from wastewater, and wastewater treatment plants. According to the literature review, ANN can predict nonlinear, linear, and complex systems with high accuracy and well control. Finally, the limitations and future scope of ANNs were discussed. ANN proved itself in the prediction of various water and WWT processes. Still, implementation has practical challenges, which include a lack of data availability, poorly built models, timely updates in developed models, and low repeatability. The use of a proper toolbox, faster computing power, and proper domain knowledge makes the practical implementation of ANN successful. As a result, ANN can build a solid foundation for attracting and motivating investigators to work in this region in the forthcoming.