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Wang E, Lu Z, Rohani ER, Ou J, Tong X, Han R. Current and future distribution of Forsythia suspensa in China under climate change adopting the MaxEnt model. FRONTIERS IN PLANT SCIENCE 2024; 15:1394799. [PMID: 38887460 PMCID: PMC11180877 DOI: 10.3389/fpls.2024.1394799] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/05/2024] [Accepted: 05/20/2024] [Indexed: 06/20/2024]
Abstract
This study evaluated the potential impact of climate change on the distribution of Forsythia suspensa, a valuable traditional Chinese medicinal plant, using the MaxEnt model integrated with Geographic Information System (GIS). By analyzing occurrence data from various databases and environmental variables including climate and soil factors, we forecasted the present and future (2050s and 2070s) habitat suitability of F. suspensa under different greenhouse gas emission scenarios (RCP8.5, RCP4.5, RCP2.6). Results indicated that the suitable habitats for F. suspensa were primarily located in North, East, Central, Northwest, and Southwest China, with a significant potential expansion of suitable habitats anticipated by the 2070s, particularly under the high emission scenario. The study identified precipitation and temperature as the primary environmental drivers impacting the distribution of F. suspensa. Furthermore, a northward shift in the centroid of suitable habitats under future climate scenarios suggested a potential migration response to global warming. This work provides crucial insights into the future conservation and cultivation strategies for F. suspensa amidst changing climatic conditions.
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Affiliation(s)
- En Wang
- School of Pharmacy, Anhui University of Chinese Medicine, Hefei, China
| | - Zongran Lu
- School of Pharmacy, Anhui University of Chinese Medicine, Hefei, China
| | | | - Jinmei Ou
- School of Pharmacy, Anhui University of Chinese Medicine, Hefei, China
| | - Xiaohui Tong
- School of Life Sciences, Anhui University of Chinese Medicine, Hefei, China
| | - Rongchun Han
- School of Pharmacy, Anhui University of Chinese Medicine, Hefei, China
- Anhui Province Key Laboratory of Research and Development of Chinese Medicine, Anhui University of Chinese Medicine, Hefei, China
- Joint Research Center for Chinese Herbal Medicine of Anhui of IHM, Anhui University of Chinese Medicine, Hefei, China
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Huang Z, Li Z, Yao L, Yuan Y, Hong Z, Huang S, Wang Y, Ye J, Zhang L, Ding J. Geographical distribution and potential distribution prediction of thirteen species of Citrus L. in China. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH INTERNATIONAL 2024; 31:6558-6571. [PMID: 38151561 DOI: 10.1007/s11356-023-31519-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/02/2023] [Accepted: 12/08/2023] [Indexed: 12/29/2023]
Abstract
Using DIVA-GIS software to study the spatial accumulation of Citrus species, an important economic crop in China. Draw the distribution maps of Citrus to concerning altitude and vegetation, and use DIVA-GIS' Bioclim ecological model and maximum information entropy model Maxent software to estimate the potential distribution areas of various Citrus species. The results show that the Citrus genus is located in the south of Qinling Mountains, mainly in the southwest of China and the coast of southeastern China. Sichuan and Chongqing are the most densely distributed regions of Citrus. The distribution of Citrus is closely related to the vegetation type and altitude. The vegetation types in the distribution area is evergreen broad-leaved forest, evergreen shrub, deciduous broad-leaved forest, mixed-leaf forest coverage area, deciduous coniferous forest, farmland, trees, other vegetation coverage, and evergreen coniferous forest. The current potential distribution area of Citrus is mainly in Guizhou, Hubei, Hunan, Guangdong, Guangxi, Yunnan, Sichuan, Chongqing, and other provinces and municipalities and their borders, while the potential distribution area in the future moves northward and enter Henan and southern Gansu. At the same time, climate warming changes the distribution of suitable areas of Citrus, which makes the suitable areas of C. sinensis Osbeck, C. reticulata Blanco, and other crops greatly increased. Planning the planting area will effectively improve the yield and quality in the future. Planning presents new challenges.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zhenhai Huang
- School of Biomedical and Pharmaceutical Sciences, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou, 510006, People's Republic of China
| | - Zexi Li
- School of Biomedical and Pharmaceutical Sciences, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou, 510006, People's Republic of China
| | - Lewen Yao
- School of Biomedical and Pharmaceutical Sciences, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou, 510006, People's Republic of China
| | - Yanghe Yuan
- School of Biomedical and Pharmaceutical Sciences, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou, 510006, People's Republic of China
| | - Zhengyi Hong
- School of Biomedical and Pharmaceutical Sciences, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou, 510006, People's Republic of China
| | - Shiyuan Huang
- School of Biomedical and Pharmaceutical Sciences, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou, 510006, People's Republic of China
| | - Ying Wang
- School of Biomedical and Pharmaceutical Sciences, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou, 510006, People's Republic of China
| | - Jianhao Ye
- School of Biomedical and Pharmaceutical Sciences, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou, 510006, People's Republic of China
| | - Lanyue Zhang
- School of Biomedical and Pharmaceutical Sciences, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou, 510006, People's Republic of China
- Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Plant Resources Biorefinery, Medicine Food Homology Engineering Center of Guangdong Province, Institute of Natural Medicine and Green Chemistry, School of Biomedical and Pharmaceutical Sciences, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou, 510006, China
| | - Jinlong Ding
- School of Biomedical and Pharmaceutical Sciences, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou, 510006, People's Republic of China.
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