Global, region and national trends and age-period-cohort effects in colorectal cancer burden from 1990 to 2019, with predictions to 2039

Prognostic significance of a signature based on senescence-related genes in colorectal cancer

Colorectal cancer, recognized as a quintessential age-related disease, underscores the intricate interplay between aging mechanisms and disease pathogenesis. Cellular senescence, a DNA damage-induced cellular stress response, is characterized by cell cycle arrest, the expression of an inflammatory senescence-associated secretory phenotype, and alterations in extracellular matrix metabolism. It is widely recognized as a fundamental and evolutionarily conserved mechanism of aging. Guided by geroscience principles, which assert that the pathogenesis of age-related diseases involves cellular mechanisms of aging, this study delves into the role of senescence-related genes in colon cancer progression. Leveraging a gene set reflective of senescence-associated pathways, we employed uni- and multivariate Cox proportional hazards survival analysis combined with the determination of the false discovery rate to analyze correlations between gene expression and survival. The integrated database of 1130 colon cancer specimens with available relapse-free survival time and relapse event data from ten independent cohorts provided a robust platform for survival analyses. We identified senescence-related genes associated with differential expression levels linked to shorter survival. Our findings unveil a prognostic signature utilizing cellular senescence-related genes (hazard ratio: 2.73, 95% CI 2.12-3.52, p = 6.4E - 16), offering valuable insights into survival prediction in colon cancer. Multivariate analysis underscored the independence of the senescence-related signature from available epidemiological and pathological variables. This study highlights the potential of senescence-related genes as prognostic biomarkers. Overall, our results underscore the pivotal role of cellular senescence, a fundamental mechanism of aging, in colon cancer progression.

Adherence to the Mediterranean diet and its protective effects against colorectal cancer: a meta-analysis of 26 studies with 2,217,404 participants

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is a major global health concern and represents a significant public health challenge in Hungary, where it exhibits some of the highest morbidity and mortality rates in the European Union. The Mediterranean diet has been suggested to reduce the incidence of CRC, but comprehensive evidence from diverse study designs is needed to substantiate this effect. A systematic literature search was conducted in PubMed, ClinicalTrials.gov, CENTRAL, and the Web of Science to identify randomized controlled trials and human clinical trials from 2008 to 2024 to identify relevant studies. Statistical analysis was performed using the https://metaanalysisonline.com web application using a random effects model to estimate the pooled hazard rates (HRs). Forest plots, funnel plots, and Z-score plots were utilized to visualize results. We identified 15 clinical trials and 9 case-control studies, encompassing a total of 2,217,404 subjects. The pooled analysis indicated that adherence to the Mediterranean diet significantly reduced the prevalence of CRC (HR = 0.84, 95% CI = 0.78-0.91, p < 0.01). This protective effect was consistent across sexes, with HRs of 0.85 (95% CI = 0.75-0.97, p = 0.01) for males and 0.88 (95% CI = 0.79-0.99, p = 0.03) for females. Case-control studies specifically showed a substantial effect (HR = 0.51, 95% CI = 0.38-0.68, p < 0.01). Notable heterogeneity was observed across studies, yet the a priori information size was substantially below the cumulative sample size, ensuring sufficient data for reliable conclusions. The findings from this meta-analysis reinforce the protective role of the Mediterranean diet against CRC. The results of this meta-analysis will inform dietary interventions designed to mitigate CRC risk, which are conducted within the framework of the Semmelweis Study, an ongoing comprehensive cohort study at Semmelweis University, designed to explore the multifaceted causes of unhealthy aging in Hungary. These interventions aim to explore the practical application of Mediterranean dietary patterns in reducing CRC incidence among the Hungarian population.

Global, regional, and national analyses of the burden of colorectal cancer attributable to diet low in milk from 1990 to 2019: longitudinal observational study

Background

Globally, diet low in milk is the third greatest risk factor for colorectal cancer (CRC). However, there has been a lack of detailed worldwide analysis of the burden and trends of CRC attributable to diet low in milk.

Objective

We aim to assess the spatiotemporal trends of CRC-related mortality and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) attributable to diet low in milk at the global, regional, and national levels from 1990 to 2019.

Methods

Data of mortality, DALYs, age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), and age-standardized DALY rate (ASDR) of CRC attributable to diet low in milk were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 study. The burden of CRC attributable to diet low in milk was estimated using the ASMR and ASDR, while accounting for sex, age, country, and socio-demographic index (SDI). From 1990 to 2019, the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) was calculated to clarify the temporal trends in the ASMR and ASDR attributable to diet low in milk.

Results

In 2019, there were 166,456 (95% UI = 107,221-226,027) deaths and 3,799,297 (95% UI = 2,457,768-5,124,453) DALYs attributable to diet low in milk, accounting for 15.3 and 15.6% of CRC-related deaths and DALYs in 2019. CRC-related deaths and DALYs attributed to diet low in milk increased by 130.5 and 115.4%, from 1990 to 2019. The burden of CRC attributable to diet low in milk varied notably among regions and nations. High-middle SDI regions had the highest ASDR and ASMR of CRC linked to diet low in milk, while there was a slight downward trend high SDI regions. Among geographical regions, East Asia had the highest number of CRC-related deaths and DALYs attributable to diet low in milk. Notably, the burden of CRC was highest in males and the elderly. With coefficients of -0.36 and -0.36, the EAPC in ASMR and ASDR was significantly inversely correlated with the Human Development Index in 2019.

Conclusion

Globally, the number of CRC deaths attributable to diet low in milk has continued to increase over the last 30 years. Therefore, government and authorities should conduct education campaigns to encourage individuals to increase daily milk intake.

Investigating temporal patterns of colorectal cancer incidence in Spain: a comprehensive analysis of age, period and cohort effects, 1990-2019

AIM

This study aimed to evaluate how age, period, and cohort (A-P-C) impact colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence in Spain from 1990 to 2019.

METHOD

Using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, we used joinpoint analysis to identify long-term trends and A-P-C modelling to quantify net drift, local drift, longitudinal age curves, and rate ratios (RRs) of period and cohort effects.

RESULTS

CRC incidence increased steadily in Spain from 1990 to 2019, with a more significant rise in males than in females. The age standardized rates rose from 84.9 to 129.3 cases per 100,000 in males and from 56.9 to 70.3 cases per 100,000 in females. Joinpoint analysis revealed distinct patterns for men and women: male incidence showed three phases (a surge until 1995, a slowdown until 2012, and a subsequent decrease) while female incidence showed a single increase until 2011 and then stabilized. Local drifts increased in all age groups over 45, with stability in males under 45 and a decrease in females aged 30-39. The risk of CRC increased with age, with males consistently having a higher risk than females. The risk of CRC increased over time for both men and women but at different rates. The risk for cohorts born in the early to mid-20th century peaked in the 1960s and remained stable until the late 1990s.

CONCLUSION

The increasing incidence of CRC in Spain, with distinct patterns by gender and birth cohort, underlines the importance of preventive strategies adapted to temporal and demographic variations to address this public health challenge.

Early-onset gastrointestinal cancer: An epidemiological reality with great significance and implications

During the last few years, epidemiological data from many countries suggest that the incidence and prevalence of many cancers of the digestive system are shifting from the older to the younger ages, the so-called "early-onset cancer". This is particularly evident in colorectal cancer and secondarily in other malignant digestive neoplasms, mainly stomach and in a lesser degree pancreas, and biliary tract. It should be emphasized that data concerning digestive neoplasms, except for those referring to the colon and stomach, could be characterized as rather insufficient. The exact magnitude of the shift in younger ages is expected to become clearer shortly, as long as relevant epidemiological data from many parts of the world would be available. The most important question concerns the etiology of this phenomenon, since its magnitude cannot be explained solely by the better diagnostic methodology and the preventive programs applied in many countries. The existing data support the assumption that a number of environmental factors may play a primary role in influencing carcinogenesis, sometimes from childhood. Changes that have appeared in the last decades related mainly to eating habits, consistency of gut microbiome and an increase of obese people interacting with genetic factors, ultimately favor the process of carcinogenesis. Even these factors however, are not entirely sufficient to explain the age-related changes in the frequency of digestive neoplasms. Studies of the individual effect of each of the already known factors or factors likely to be involved in the etiology of this phenomenon and studies using state-of-the-art technologies to accurately determine the degree of the population exposure to these factors are required. In this article, we attempt to describe the epidemiological data supporting the age-shifting of digestive malignancies and their possible pathogenesis. Finally, we propose some measures regarding the attitude of the scientific community to this alarming phenomenon.

Global burden and risk factors of gastritis and duodenitis: an observational trend study from 1990 to 2019

In recent years, there has been a global trend of aging, which has resulted in significant changes to the burden of gastritis and duodenitis (GD). Using the global burden of disease (GBD) database spanning 1990 to 2019, we evaluated the temporal trends of age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR), age-standardized death rates (ASDR), and age-standardized disability-adjusted life years (AS-DALYs) for GD using estimated annual percentage changes (EAPC). Additionally, we examined the burden of GD across various strata, including social demographic index (SDI), age, and sex. Finally, the risk factors linked to the incidence and mortality of GD, utilizing Pearson correlation analysis. In 2019, there were 31 million GD patients globally, a notable increase of 12 million from 1990, while the ASIR, ASDR, and AS-DALYs for GD all showed a decrease. Correlation analysis showed a significant negative relationship between ASIR and SDI. Factors like hand hygiene and vitamin A deficiency had significant positive correlations with ASIR and ASDR in 2019. Over the past thirty years, the burden of GD has increased alongside global population aging. Future efforts should focus on exploring prevention for GD, with special attention to the elderly population in low SDI regions.