Assessment of coastal vulnerability using integrated fuzzy analytical hierarchy process and geospatial technology for effective coastal management

Assessing tropical cyclone risk for improving mitigation strategies in Coastal Odisha, India

Tropical cyclone causes large-scale devastation and destruction in the coastal plains of India, particularly in Odisha, which is the most cyclone-affected state in the country. Tropical cyclones are projected to be more powerful and widespread due to changing climate. Hence, the risk assessment of tropical cyclone is necessary to identify cyclone-risk areas in coastal Odisha which may help in the mitigation of the damages caused by cyclones. Therefore, this study utilizes geospatial techniques to produce a comprehensive risk map posed by tropical cyclones and to estimate the degree of risk for coastal districts of Odisha. For this, we evaluated the district-level cyclone risk for coastal Odisha using multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) technique by considering 21 parameters for each of the four components of risk, i.e., exposure, hazard, vulnerability, as well as mitigation capacity. For each criterion, thematic raster map layers were created and weighted using a fuzzy analytical hierarchy process (FAHP). We prepared individual risk component maps using weighted overlay techniques and finally integrated all indices to create the risk map. The study shows that 13% area of the study area comes under a very high-risk zone whereas, 25% area comes under a high-risk zone. The central (Cuttack, northern parts of Khordha, and south-western parts of Jajpur district) and the eastern part (most of the parts of Jagatsinghpur, Kendrapara, and northern parts of Puri district) of the study area come under high to very high tropical cyclone impact zone. Almost 67% of the total area is highly vulnerable to tropical cyclones and mainly concentrated near the shoreline. The applied approach and results can assist the local authorities in identifying vulnerable and hazardous locations and developing workable solutions for the mitigation of revised cyclone threats in the coastal districts of Odisha.

Cyclone vulnerability assessment in the coastal districts of Bangladesh

This research aims to assess the vulnerability to cyclones in the coastal regions of Bangladesh, employing a comprehensive framework derived from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007). The study considers a total of eighteen factors, categorized into three critical dimensions: exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. These factors are crucial in understanding the potential impact of cyclones in the region. In order to develop a cyclone vulnerability map, Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was applied, primarily focusing on the dimensions of sensitivity and adaptive capacity. The findings of this analysis revealed that sensitivity and adaptive capacity components accounted for a significant percentage of variance in the data, explaining 90.00 % and 90.93 % of the variance, respectively. Despite the lack of details about data collection, the study identified specific factors contributing significantly to each dimension. Notably, proximity to the coastline emerged as a highly influential factor in determining cyclone exposure. The results of this research indicate that certain areas, such as Jessore, Khulna, Narail, Gopalgonj, and Bagerhat, exhibit low exposure to cyclones, whereas regions like Chandpur and Lakshmipur face a high level of exposure. Sensitivity was found to be high in most areas, with Noakhali, Lakshmipur, and Chandpur being the most sensitive regions. Adaptive capacity was observed to vary significantly, with low values near the sea, particularly in locations like Cox's Bazar, Shatkhira, Bagerhat, Noakhali, and Bhola, and high values in regions farther from the coast. Overall, vulnerability to cyclones was found to be very high in Noakhali, Lakshmipur, Chandpur, and Bhola, low in Jessore and Khulna, and moderate in Barisal, Narail, Gopalgonj, and Jhalokati. These findings are expected to provide valuable insights to inform decision-makers and authorities tasked with managing the consequences of cyclones in the region.