Modeling of epidemic spreading with white Gaussian noise

Pattern selection mechanism from the equilibrium point and limit cycle

The outbreak of infectious diseases often exhibits periodicity, and this periodic behavior can be mathematically represented as a limit cycle. However, the periodic behavior has rarely been considered in demonstrating the cluster phenomenon of infection induced by diffusion (the instability modes) in the SIR model. We investigate the emergence of Turing instability from a stable equilibrium and a limit cycle to illustrate the dynamical and biological mechanisms of pattern formation. We identify the Hopf bifurcation to demonstrate the existence of a stable limit cycle using First Lyapunov coefficient in our spatiotemporal diffusion-driven SIR model. The competition between different instability modes induces different types of patterns and eventually spot patterns emerge as stable patterns. We investigate the impact of susceptible, infected, and recovered individuals on the type of patterns. Interestingly, these instability modes play a vital role in selecting the pattern formations, which is directly related to the number of observed spot patterns. Subsequently, we explain the dynamical and biological mechanisms of spot patterns to develop an effective epidemic prevention strategy.

Dynamics of a stochastic COVID-19 epidemic model considering asymptomatic and isolated infected individuals

Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has a strong influence on the global public health and economics since the outbreak in 2020. In this paper, we study a stochastic high-dimensional COVID-19 epidemic model which considers asymptomatic and isolated infected individuals. Firstly we prove the existence and uniqueness for positive solution to the stochastic model. Then we obtain the conditions on the extinction of the disease as well as the existence of stationary distribution. It shows that the noise intensity conducted on the asymptomatic infections and infected with symptoms plays an important role in the disease control. Finally numerical simulation is carried out to illustrate the theoretical results, and it is compared with the real data of India.

The Evolutionary Dynamics of Stochastic Epidemic Model with Nonlinear Incidence Rate

A stochastic SIRS epidemic model with nonlinear incidence rate and varying population size is formulated to investigate the effect of stochastic environmental variability on inter-pandemic transmission dynamics of influenza A. Sufficient conditions for extinction and persistence of the disease are established. In the case of persistence, the existence of endemic stationary distribution is proved and the distance between stochastic solutions and the endemic equilibrium of the corresponding deterministic system in the time mean sense is estimated. Based on realistic parameters of influenza A in humans, numerical simulations have been performed to verify/extend our analytical results. It is found that: (i) the deterministic threshold of the influenza A extinction R(S)0 may exist and the threshold parameter will be overestimated in case of neglecting the impaction of environmental noises; (ii) the presence of environmental noises is capable of supporting the irregular recurrence of influenza epidemic, and the average level of the number of infected individuals I(t) always decreases with the increase in noise intensity; and (iii) if R(S)0 > 1, the volatility of I(t) increases with the increase of noise intensity, while the volatility of I(t) decreases with the increase in noise intensity if R(S)0 < 1.