Multimodel projections and uncertainties of net ecosystem production in China over the twenty-first century

Unexpected response of nitrogen deposition to nitrogen oxide controls and implications for land carbon sink

Terrestrial ecosystems in China receive the world’s largest amount of reactive nitrogen (N) deposition. Recent controls on nitrogen oxides (NO_x = NO + NO₂) emissions in China to tackle air pollution are expected to decrease N deposition, yet the observed N deposition fluxes remain almost stagnant. Here we show that the effectiveness of NO_x emission controls for reducing oxidized N (NO_y = NO_x + its oxidation products) deposition is unforeseen in Eastern China, with one-unit reduction in NO_x emission leading to only 55‒76% reductions in NO_y-N deposition, as opposed to the high effectiveness (around 100%) in both Southern China and the United States. Using an atmospheric chemical transport model, we demonstrate that this unexpected weakened response of N deposition is attributable to the enhanced atmospheric oxidizing capacity by NO_x emissions reductions. The decline in N deposition could bear a penalty on terrestrial carbon sinks and should be taken into account when developing pathways for China’s carbon neutrality.

Recent vigorous controls in anthropogenic nitrogen oxide emissions in China cannot result in proportionate decreases in regional atmospheric nitrogen deposition. Enhanced atmospheric oxidizing capacity offsets those reductions of precursor emissions.

Pathways of China's PM2.5 air quality 2015–2060 in the context of carbon neutrality

Clean air policies in China have substantially reduced particulate matter (PM_2.5) air pollution in recent years, primarily by curbing end-of-pipe emissions. However, reaching the level of the World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines may instead depend upon the air quality co-benefits of ambitious climate action. Here, we assess pathways of Chinese PM_2.5 air quality from 2015 to 2060 under a combination of scenarios that link global and Chinese climate mitigation pathways (i.e. global 2°C- and 1.5°C-pathways, National Determined Contributions (NDC) pledges and carbon neutrality goals) to local clean air policies. We find that China can achieve both its near-term climate goals (peak emissions) and PM_2.5 air quality annual standard (35 μg/m³) by 2030 by fulfilling its NDC pledges and continuing air pollution control policies. However, the benefits of end-of-pipe control reductions are mostly exhausted by 2030, and reducing PM_2.5 exposure of the majority of the Chinese population to below 10 μg/m³ by 2060 will likely require more ambitious climate mitigation efforts such as China's carbon neutrality goals and global 1.5°C-pathways. Our results thus highlight that China's carbon neutrality goals will play a critical role in reducing air pollution exposure to the level of the WHO guidelines and protecting public health.

Climate change and carbon sink: a bibliometric analysis

In recent years, climate change and carbon sinks have been widely studied by the academic community, and relevant research results have emerged in abundance. In this paper, a scientometric analysis of 747 academic works published between 1991 and 2018 related to climate change and carbon sinks is presented to characterize the intellectual landscape by identifying and revealing the basic characteristics, research power, intellectual base, research topic evolution, and research hotspots in this field. The results show that ① the number of publications in this field has increased rapidly and the field has become increasingly interdisciplinary; ② the most productive authors and institutions in this subject area are in the USA, China, Canada, Australia, and European countries, and the cooperation between these researchers is closer than other researchers in the field; ③ 11 of the 747 papers analyzed in this study have played a key role in the evolution of the field; and ④ in this paper, we divide research hotspots into three decade-long phases (1991-1999, 2000-2010, and 2011-present). Drought problems have attracted more and more attention from scholars. In the end, given the current trend of the studies, we conclude a list of research potentials of climate change and carbon sinks in the future. This paper presents an in-depth analysis of climate change and carbon sink research to better understand the global trends and directions that have emerged in this field over the past 28 years, which can also provide reference for future research in this field.