Virus replication as a phenotypic version of polynucleotide evolution

Stochastic Modeling and Simulation of Viral Evolution

RNA viruses comprise vast populations of closely related, but highly genetically diverse, entities known as quasispecies. Understanding the mechanisms by which this extreme diversity is generated and maintained is fundamental when approaching viral persistence and pathobiology in infected hosts. In this paper, we access quasispecies theory through a mathematical model based on the theory of multitype branching processes, to better understand the roles of mechanisms resulting in viral diversity, persistence and extinction. We accomplish this understanding by a combination of computational simulations and the theoretical analysis of the model. In order to perform the simulations, we have implemented the mathematical model into a computational platform capable of running simulations and presenting the results in a graphical format in real time. Among other things, we show that the establishment of virus populations may display four distinct regimes from its introduction into new hosts until achieving equilibrium or undergoing extinction. Also, we were able to simulate different fitness distributions representing distinct environments within a host which could either be favorable or hostile to the viral success. We addressed the most used mechanisms for explaining the extinction of RNA virus populations called lethal mutagenesis and mutational meltdown. We were able to demonstrate a correspondence between these two mechanisms implying the existence of a unifying principle leading to the extinction of RNA viruses.

Two sides of the same coin: A population genetics perspective on lethal mutagenesis and mutational meltdown

The extinction of RNA virus populations upon application of a mutagenic drug is frequently referred to as evidence for the existence of an error threshold, above which the population cannot sustain the mutational load. To explain the extinction process after reaching this threshold, models of lethal mutagenesis have been proposed, in which extinction is described as a deterministic (and thus population size-independent) process. As a separate body of literature, the population genetics community has developed models of mutational meltdown, which focus on the stochastic (and thus population-size dependent) processes governing extinction. However, recent extensions of both models have blurred these boundaries. Here, we first clarify definitions in terms of assumptions, expectations, and relevant parameter spaces, and then assess similarities and differences. As concepts from both fields converge, we argue for a unified theoretical framework that is focused on the evolutionary processes at play, rather than dispute over terminology.

Distribution of the quasispecies for a Galton–Watson process on the sharp peak landscape

We study a classical multitype Galton–Watson process with mutation and selection. The individuals are sequences of fixed length over a finite alphabet. On the sharp peak fitness landscape together with independent mutations per locus, we show that, as the length of the sequences goes to ∞ and the mutation probability goes to 0, the asymptotic relative frequency of the sequences differing on k digits from the master sequence approaches (σe-a - 1)(ak/k!)∑i≥ 1ik/σi, where σ is the selective advantage of the master sequence and a is the product of the length of the chains with the mutation probability. The probability distribution Q(σ, a) on the nonnegative integers given by the above equation is the quasispecies distribution with parameters σ and a.

High rates of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 mutational profiles by single-genome amplification after 48-hour propagation in peripheral blood mononuclear cells at different levels of cell activation

Human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) genetic diversity is one of the most important features of HIV-1 infections and the result of error accumulation during reverse transcription and of high viral turnover. HIV-1 reverse transcription is influenced by factors such as the level of nucleotides and/or the cellular activation state. HIV-1 diversity was investigated after 48 h of viral propagation in peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) obtained from healthy donors in three different cell culture conditions: (1) resting PBMCs, (2) simultaneous infection and PBMC activation, and (3) PBMC activation 72 h before infection. Cellular DNA was extracted and proviruses of each culture condition were amplified. Single-genome PCR clones were obtained and the protease and reverse transcriptase of the pol gene were sequenced. An elevated number of nucleotide substitutions in all three culture conditions were observed. In condition 1, the mutational rate observed ranged from 1.0 × 10(-3) to 2.1 × 10(-2), the genetic diversity was 0.6%, and hypermutation was observed in 7.1% of sequenced clones. In condition 2, the mutational rate ranged from 1.0 × 10(-3) to 1.0 × 10(-2), the genetic diversity was 0.8%, and hypermutation affected 6.7% of clones. In condition 3, the mutational rate ranged from 2.8 × 10(-3) to 1.1 × 10(-2), the genetic diversity was 1%, and 5.9% of clones were hypermutated. Substitutions occurred more frequently in some specific nucleotide stretches, and a common pattern for substitutions in all the different conditions was identified. There was a significant accumulation of mutations during the initial periods of in vitro HIV-1 propagation irrespective of culture conditions. The rapid accumulation of virus diversity might represent a viral strategy when colonizing new hosts. Complementary studies are necessary to allow for a better understanding of the initial periods of infection, which represent a crucial event related to disease progression.

Variability in mutational fitness effects prevents full lethal transitions in large quasispecies populations

The distribution of mutational fitness effects (DMFE) is crucial to the evolutionary fate of quasispecies. In this article we analyze the effect of the DMFE on the dynamics of a large quasispecies by means of a phenotypic version of the classic Eigen's model that incorporates beneficial, neutral, deleterious, and lethal mutations. By parameterizing the model with available experimental data on the DMFE of Vesicular stomatitis virus (VSV) and Tobacco etch virus (TEV), we found that increasing mutation does not totally push the entire viral quasispecies towards deleterious or lethal regions of the phenotypic sequence space. The probability of finding regions in the parameter space of the general model that results in a quasispecies only composed by lethal phenotypes is extremely small at equilibrium and in transient times. The implications of our findings can be extended to other scenarios, such as lethal mutagenesis or genomically unstable cancer, where increased mutagenesis has been suggested as a potential therapy.