Using Experimental Data and Information Criteria to Guide Model Selection for Reaction–Diffusion Problems in Mathematical Biology

Cancer cell sedimentation in 3D cultures reveals active migration regulated by self-generated gradients and adhesion sites

Cell sedimentation in 3D hydrogel cultures refers to the vertical migration of cells towards the bottom of the space. Understanding this poorly examined phenomenon may allow us to design better protocols to prevent it, as well as provide insights into the mechanobiology of cancer development. We conducted a multiscale experimental and mathematical examination of 3D cancer growth in triple negative breast cancer cells. Migration was examined in the presence and absence of Paclitaxel, in high and low adhesion environments and in the presence of fibroblasts. The observed behaviour was modeled by hypothesizing active migration due to self-generated chemotactic gradients. Our results did not reject this hypothesis, whereby migration was likely to be regulated by the MAPK and TGF-β pathways. The mathematical model enabled us to describe the experimental data in absence (normalized error<40%) and presence of Paclitaxel (normalized error<10%), suggesting inhibition of random motion and advection in the latter case. Inhibition of sedimentation in low adhesion and co-culture experiments further supported the conclusion that cells actively migrated downwards due to the presence of signals produced by cells already attached to the adhesive glass surface.

Discrete and continuous mathematical models of sharp-fronted collective cell migration and invasion

Mathematical models describing the spatial spreading and invasion of populations of biological cells are often developed in a continuum modelling framework using reaction-diffusion equations. While continuum models based on linear diffusion are routinely employed and known to capture key experimental observations, linear diffusion fails to predict well-defined sharp fronts that are often observed experimentally. This observation has motivated the use of nonlinear degenerate diffusion; however, these nonlinear models and the associated parameters lack a clear biological motivation and interpretation. Here, we take a different approach by developing a stochastic discrete lattice-based model incorporating biologically inspired mechanisms and then deriving the reaction-diffusion continuum limit. Inspired by experimental observations, agents in the simulation deposit extracellular material, which we call a substrate, locally onto the lattice, and the motility of agents is taken to be proportional to the substrate density. Discrete simulations that mimic a two-dimensional circular barrier assay illustrate how the discrete model supports both smooth and sharp-fronted density profiles depending on the rate of substrate deposition. Coarse-graining the discrete model leads to a novel partial differential equation (PDE) model whose solution accurately approximates averaged data from the discrete model. The new discrete model and PDE approximation provide a simple, biologically motivated framework for modelling the spreading, growth and invasion of cell populations with well-defined sharp fronts. Open-source Julia code to replicate all results in this work is available on GitHub.

A calibration and uncertainty quantification analysis of classical, fractional and multiscale logistic models of tumour growth

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

The validation of mathematical models of tumour growth is frequently hampered by the lack of sufficient experimental data, resulting in qualitative rather than quantitative studies. Recent approaches to this problem have attempted to extract information about tumour growth by integrating multiscale experimental measurements, such as longitudinal cell counts and gene expression data. In the present study, we investigated the performance of several mathematical models of tumour growth, including classical logistic, fractional and novel multiscale models, in terms of quantifying in-vitro tumour growth in the presence and absence of therapy. We further examined the effect of genes associated with changes in chemosensitivity in cell death rates.

METHODS

The multiscale expansion of logistic growth models was performed by coupling gene expression profiles to the cell death rates. State-of-the-art Bayesian inference, likelihood maximisation and uncertainty quantification techniques allowed a thorough evaluation of model performance.

RESULTS

The results suggest that the classical single-cell population model (SCPM) was the best fit for the untreated and low-dose treatment conditions, while the multiscale model with a cell death rate symmetric with the expression profile of OCT4 (Sym-SCPM) yielded the best fit for the high-dose treatment data. Further identifiability analysis showed that the multiscale model was both structurally and practically identifiable under the condition of known OCT4 expression profiles.

CONCLUSIONS

Overall, the present study demonstrates that model performance can be improved by incorporating multiscale measurements of tumour growth when high-dose treatment is involved.

Modelling the interaction of invasive-invaded species based on the general Bramson dynamics and with a density dependant diffusion and advection

The main goal of the presented study is to introduce a model of a pairwise invasion interaction with a nonlinear diffusion and advection. The new equation is based on the further general works introduced by Bramson (1988) to describe the invasive-invaded dynamics. This type of model is made particular with a density dependent diffusion along with an advection term. The new resulting model is then analyzed to explore the regularity, existence and uniqueness of solutions. It is well known that density dependent diffusion operators induce a propagating front with finite speed for compactly supported functions. Based on this, we introduce an analytical approach to determine the evolution of such a propagating front in the invasion dynamics. Afterward, we study the problem with travelling wave profiles and a numerical assessment. As a main finding to remark: When both species propagate with significantly different travelling wave speeds, the interaction becomes unstable, while when the species propagate with similar low speeds, the interaction stabilizes.

Geometric analysis enables biological insight from complex non-identifiable models using simple surrogates

An enduring challenge in computational biology is to balance data quality and quantity with model complexity. Tools such as identifiability analysis and information criterion have been developed to harmonise this juxtaposition, yet cannot always resolve the mismatch between available data and the granularity required in mathematical models to answer important biological questions. Often, it is only simple phenomenological models, such as the logistic and Gompertz growth models, that are identifiable from standard experimental measurements. To draw insights from complex, non-identifiable models that incorporate key biological mechanisms of interest, we study the geometry of a map in parameter space from the complex model to a simple, identifiable, surrogate model. By studying how non-identifiable parameters in the complex model quantitatively relate to identifiable parameters in surrogate, we introduce and exploit a layer of interpretation between the set of non-identifiable parameters and the goodness-of-fit metric or likelihood studied in typical identifiability analysis. We demonstrate our approach by analysing a hierarchy of mathematical models for multicellular tumour spheroid growth experiments. Typical data from tumour spheroid experiments are limited and noisy, and corresponding mathematical models are very often made arbitrarily complex. Our geometric approach is able to predict non-identifiabilities, classify non-identifiable parameter spaces into identifiable parameter combinations that relate to features in the data characterised by parameters in a surrogate model, and overall provide additional biological insight from complex non-identifiable models.

Profile likelihood-based parameter and predictive interval analysis guides model choice for ecological population dynamics

Calibrating mathematical models to describe ecological data provides important insight via parameter estimation that is not possible from analysing data alone. When we undertake a mathematical modelling study of ecological or biological data, we must deal with the trade-off between data availability and model complexity. Dealing with the nexus between data availability and model complexity is an ongoing challenge in mathematical modelling, particularly in mathematical biology and mathematical ecology where data collection is often not standardised, and more broad questions about model selection remain relatively open. Therefore, choosing an appropriate model almost always requires case-by-case consideration. In this work we present a straightforward approach to quantitatively explore this trade-off using a case study exploring mathematical models of coral reef regrowth after some ecological disturbance, such as damage caused by a tropical cyclone. In particular, we compare a simple single species ordinary differential equation (ODE) model approach with a more complicated two-species coupled ODE model. Univariate profile likelihood analysis suggests that the both models are practically identifiable. To provide additional insight we construct and compare approximate prediction intervals using a new parameter-wise prediction approximation, confirming both the simple and complex models perform similarly with regard to making predictions. Our approximate parameter-wise prediction interval analysis provides explicit information about how each parameter affects the predictions of each model. Comparing our approximate prediction intervals with a more rigorous and computationally expensive evaluation of the full likelihood shows that the new approximations are reasonable in this case. All algorithms and software to support this work are freely available as jupyter notebooks on GitHub so that they can be adapted to deal with any other ODE-based models.

Systematic comparison of modeling fidelity levels and parameter inference settings applied to negative feedback gene regulation

Quantitative stochastic models of gene regulatory networks are important tools for studying cellular regulation. Such models can be formulated at many different levels of fidelity. A practical challenge is to determine what model fidelity to use in order to get accurate and representative results. The choice is important, because models of successively higher fidelity come at a rapidly increasing computational cost. In some situations, the level of detail is clearly motivated by the question under study. In many situations however, many model options could qualitatively agree with available data, depending on the amount of data and the nature of the observations. Here, an important distinction is whether we are interested in inferring the true (but unknown) physical parameters of the model or if it is sufficient to be able to capture and explain available data. The situation becomes complicated from a computational perspective because inference needs to be approximate. Most often it is based on likelihood-free Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) and here determining which summary statistics to use, as well as how much data is needed to reach the desired level of accuracy, are difficult tasks. Ultimately, all of these aspects-the model fidelity, the available data, and the numerical choices for inference-interplay in a complex manner. In this paper we develop a computational pipeline designed to systematically evaluate inference accuracy for a wide range of true known parameters. We then use it to explore inference settings for negative feedback gene regulation. In particular, we compare a detailed spatial stochastic model, a coarse-grained compartment-based multiscale model, and the standard well-mixed model, across several data-scenarios and for multiple numerical options for parameter inference. Practically speaking, this pipeline can be used as a preliminary step to guide modelers prior to gathering experimental data. By training Gaussian processes to approximate the distance function values, we are able to substantially reduce the computational cost of running the pipeline.

Computationally efficient framework for diagnosing, understanding and predicting biphasic population growth

Throughout the life sciences, biological populations undergo multiple phases of growth, often referred to as biphasic growth for the commonly encountered situation involving two phases. Biphasic population growth occurs over a massive range of spatial and temporal scales, ranging from microscopic growth of tumours over several days, to decades-long regrowth of corals in coral reefs that can extend for hundreds of kilometres. Different mathematical models and statistical methods are used to diagnose, understand and predict biphasic growth. Common approaches can lead to inaccurate predictions of future growth that may result in inappropriate management and intervention strategies being implemented. Here, we develop a very general computationally efficient framework, based on profile likelihood analysis, for diagnosing, understanding and predicting biphasic population growth. The two key components of the framework are as follows: (i) an efficient method to form approximate confidence intervals for the change point of the growth dynamics and model parameters and (ii) parameter-wise profile predictions that systematically reveal the influence of individual model parameters on predictions. To illustrate our framework we explore real-world case studies across the life sciences.

Revisiting Fisher-KPP model to interpret the spatial spreading of invasive cell population in biology

In this paper, the homotopy analysis method, a powerful analytical technique, is applied to obtain analytical solutions to the Fisher-KPP equation in studying the spatial spreading of invasive species in ecology and to extract the nature of the spatial spreading of invasive cell populations in biology. The effect of the proliferation rate of the model of interest on the entire population is studied. It is observed that the invasive cell or the invasive population is decreased within a short time with the minimum proliferation rate. The homotopy analysis method is found to be superior to other analytical methods, namely the Adomian decomposition method, the homotopy perturbation method, etc. because of containing an auxiliary parameter, which provides us with a convenient way to adjust and control the region of convergence of the series solution. Graphical representation of the approximate series solutions obtained by the homotopy analysis method, the Adomian decomposition method, and the Homotopy perturbation method is illustrated, which shows the superiority of the homotopy analysis method. The method is examined on several examples, which reveal the ingenuousness and the effectiveness of the method of interest.

•

Closed-form solutions are obtained for the Fisher-KPP equation through the Homotopy analysis method.

•

The effect of the proliferation rate of the model of interest on the entire population is studied.

•

The invasive cell or the invasive population decreases in short time with the minimum proliferation rate.

•

The Homotopy analysis method is found superior over other analytical methods.

Non-vanishing sharp-fronted travelling wave solutions of the Fisher-Kolmogorov model

The Fisher-Kolmogorov-Petrovsky-Piskunov (KPP) model, and generalizations thereof, involves simple reaction-diffusion equations for biological invasion that assume individuals in the population undergo linear diffusion with diffusivity $D$, and logistic proliferation with rate $\lambda $. For the Fisher-KPP model, biologically relevant initial conditions lead to long-time travelling wave solutions that move with speed $c=2\sqrt {\lambda D}$. Despite these attractive features, there are several biological limitations of travelling wave solutions of the Fisher-KPP model. First, these travelling wave solutions do not predict a well-defined invasion front. Second, biologically relevant initial conditions lead to travelling waves that move with speed $c=2\sqrt {\lambda D}> 0$. This means that, for biologically relevant initial data, the Fisher-KPP model cannot be used to study invasion with $c \ne 2\sqrt {\lambda D}$, or retreating travelling waves with $c < 0$. Here, we reformulate the Fisher-KPP model as a moving boundary problem and show that this reformulated model alleviates the key limitations of the Fisher-KPP model. Travelling wave solutions of the moving boundary problem predict a well-defined front that can propagate with any wave speed, $-\infty < c < \infty $. Here, we establish these results using a combination of high-accuracy numerical simulations of the time-dependent partial differential equation, phase plane analysis and perturbation methods. All software required to replicate this work is available on GitHub.

Parameter estimation and uncertainty quantification using information geometry

In this work, we: (i) review likelihood-based inference for parameter estimation and the construction of confidence regions; and (ii) explore the use of techniques from information geometry, including geodesic curves and Riemann scalar curvature, to supplement typical techniques for uncertainty quantification, such as Bayesian methods, profile likelihood, asymptotic analysis and bootstrapping. These techniques from information geometry provide data-independent insights into uncertainty and identifiability, and can be used to inform data collection decisions. All code used in this work to implement the inference and information geometry techniques is available on GitHub.

A Continuum Mathematical Model of Substrate-Mediated Tissue Growth

We consider a continuum mathematical model of biological tissue formation inspired by recent experiments describing thin tissue growth in 3D-printed bioscaffolds. The continuum model, which we call the substrate model, involves a partial differential equation describing the density of tissue, \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$${\hat{u}}(\hat{{\mathbf {x}}},{\hat{t}})$$\end{document}u^(x^,t^) that is coupled to the concentration of an immobile extracellular substrate, \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$${\hat{s}}(\hat{{\mathbf {x}}},{\hat{t}})$$\end{document}s^(x^,t^). Cell migration is modelled with a nonlinear diffusion term, where the diffusive flux is proportional to \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$${\hat{s}}$$\end{document}s^, while a logistic growth term models cell proliferation. The extracellular substrate \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$${\hat{s}}$$\end{document}s^ is produced by cells and undergoes linear decay. Preliminary numerical simulations show that this mathematical model is able to recapitulate key features of recent tissue growth experiments, including the formation of sharp fronts. To provide a deeper understanding of the model we analyse travelling wave solutions of the substrate model, showing that the model supports both sharp-fronted travelling wave solutions that move with a minimum wave speed, \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$c = c_{\mathrm{min}}$$\end{document}c=cmin, as well as smooth-fronted travelling wave solutions that move with a faster travelling wave speed, \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$c > c_{\mathrm{min}}$$\end{document}c>cmin. We provide a geometric interpretation that explains the difference between smooth and sharp-fronted travelling wave solutions that is based on a slow manifold reduction of the desingularised three-dimensional phase space. In addition, we also develop and test a series of useful approximations that describe the shape of the travelling wave solutions in various limits. These approximations apply to both the sharp-fronted and smooth-fronted travelling wave solutions. Software to implement all calculations is available at GitHub.

Parameter identifiability and model selection for sigmoid population growth models

Sigmoid growth models, such as the logistic, Gompertz and Richards' models, are widely used to study population dynamics ranging from microscopic populations of cancer cells, to continental-scale human populations. Fundamental questions about model selection and parameter estimation are critical if these models are to be used to make practical inferences. However, the question of parameter identifiability - whether a data set contains sufficient information to give unique or sufficiently precise parameter estimates - is often overlooked. We use a profile-likelihood approach to explore practical parameter identifiability using data describing the re-growth of hard coral. With this approach, we explore the relationship between parameter identifiability and model misspecification, finding that the logistic growth model does not suffer identifiability issues for the type of data we consider whereas the Gompertz and Richards' models encounter practical non-identifiability issues. This analysis of parameter identifiability and model selection is important because different growth models are in biological modelling without necessarily considering whether parameters are identifiable. Standard practices that do not consider parameter identifiability can lead to unreliable or imprecise parameter estimates and potentially misleading mechanistic interpretations. For example, using the Gompertz model, the estimate of the time scale of coral re-growth is 625 days when we estimate the initial density from the data, whereas it is 1429 days using a more standard approach where variability in the initial density is ignored. While tools developed here focus on three standard sigmoid growth models only, our theoretical developments are applicable to any sigmoid growth model and any appropriate data set. MATLAB implementations of all software are available on GitHub.

Designing and interpreting 4D tumour spheroid experiments

Tumour spheroid experiments are routinely used to study cancer progression and treatment. Various and inconsistent experimental designs are used, leading to challenges in interpretation and reproducibility. Using multiple experimental designs, live-dead cell staining, and real-time cell cycle imaging, we measure necrotic and proliferation-inhibited regions in over 1000 4D tumour spheroids (3D space plus cell cycle status). By intentionally varying the initial spheroid size and temporal sampling frequencies across multiple cell lines, we collect an abundance of measurements of internal spheroid structure. These data are difficult to compare and interpret. However, using an objective mathematical modelling framework and statistical identifiability analysis we quantitatively compare experimental designs and identify design choices that produce reliable biological insight. Measurements of internal spheroid structure provide the most insight, whereas varying initial spheroid size and temporal measurement frequency is less important. Our general framework applies to spheroids grown in different conditions and with different cell types.

OUP accepted manuscript

Motivation

Inferring the parameters of models describing biological systems is an important problem in the reverse engineering of the mechanisms underlying these systems. Much work has focused on parameter inference of stochastic and ordinary differential equation models using Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC). While there is some recent work on inference in spatial models, this remains an open problem. Simultaneously, advances in topological data analysis (TDA), a field of computational mathematics, have enabled spatial patterns in data to be characterized.

Results

Here, we focus on recent work using TDA to study different regimes of parameter space for a well-studied model of angiogenesis. We propose a method for combining TDA with ABC to infer parameters in the Anderson–Chaplain model of angiogenesis. We demonstrate that this topological approach outperforms ABC approaches that use simpler statistics based on spatial features of the data. This is a first step toward a general framework of spatial parameter inference for biological systems, for which there may be a variety of filtrations, vectorizations and summary statistics to be considered.

Availability and implementation

All code used to produce our results is available as a Snakemake workflow from github.com/tt104/tabc_angio.

WEAK SINDY FOR PARTIAL DIFFERENTIAL EQUATIONS

Sparse Identification of Nonlinear Dynamics (SINDy) is a method of system discovery that has been shown to successfully recover governing dynamical systems from data [6, 39]. Recently, several groups have independently discovered that the weak formulation provides orders of magnitude better robustness to noise. Here we extend our Weak SINDy (WSINDy) framework introduced in [28] to the setting of partial differential equations (PDEs). The elimination of pointwise derivative approximations via the weak form enables effective machine-precision recovery of model coefficients from noise-free data (i.e. below the tolerance of the simulation scheme) as well as robust identification of PDEs in the large noise regime (with signal-to-noise ratio approaching one in many well-known cases). This is accomplished by discretizing a convolutional weak form of the PDE and exploiting separability of test functions for efficient model identification using the Fast Fourier Transform. The resulting WSINDy algorithm for PDEs has a worst-case computational complexity of O ( N D + 1 log ( N ) ) for datasets with N points in each of D + 1 dimensions. Furthermore, our Fourier-based implementation reveals a connection between robustness to noise and the spectra of test functions, which we utilize in an a priori selection algorithm for test functions. Finally, we introduce a learning algorithm for the threshold in sequential-thresholding least-squares (STLS) that enables model identification from large libraries, and we utilize scale invariance at the continuum level to identify PDEs from poorly-scaled datasets. We demonstrate WSINDy's robustness, speed and accuracy on several challenging PDEs. Code is publicly available on GitHub at https://github.com/MathBioCU/WSINDy_PDE.

WEAK SINDy: GALERKIN-BASED DATA-DRIVEN MODEL SELECTION

We present a novel weak formulation and discretization for discovering governing equations from noisy measurement data. This method of learning differential equations from data fits into a new class of algorithms that replace pointwise derivative approximations with linear transformations and variance reduction techniques. Compared to the standard SINDy algorithm presented in [S. L. Brunton, J. L. Proctor, and J. N. Kutz, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 113 (2016), pp. 3932-3937], our so-called weak SINDy (WSINDy) algorithm allows for reliable model identification from data with large noise (often with ratios greater than 0.1) and reduces the error in the recovered coefficients to enable accurate prediction. Moreover, the coefficient error scales linearly with the noise level, leading to high-accuracy recovery in the low-noise regime. Altogether, WSINDy combines the simplicity and efficiency of the SINDy algorithm with the natural noise reduction of integration, as demonstrated in [H. Schaeffer and S. G. McCalla, Phys. Rev. E, 96 (2017), 023302], to arrive at a robust and accurate method of sparse recovery.

A spatiotemporal microenvironment model to improve design of a 3D bioreactor for red cell production

Cellular microenvironments provide stimuli including paracrine and autocrine growth factors and physico-chemical cues, which support efficient in vivo cell production unmatched by current in vitro biomanufacturing platforms. While three-dimensional (3D) culture systems aim to recapitulate niche architecture and function of the target tissue/organ, they are limited in accessing spatiotemporal information to evaluate and optimize in situ cell/tissue process development. Herein, a mathematical modelling framework is parameterized by single-cell phenotypic imaging and multiplexed biochemical assays to simulate the non-uniform tissue distribution of nutrients/metabolites and growth factors in cell niche environments. This model is applied to a bone marrow mimicry 3D perfusion bioreactor containing dense stromal and hematopoietic tissue with limited red blood cell (RBC) egress. The model characterized an imbalance between endogenous cytokine production and nutrient starvation within the microenvironmental niches, and recommended increased cell inoculum density and enhanced medium exchange, guiding the development of a miniaturized prototype bioreactor. The second-generation prototype improved the distribution of nutrients and growth factors and supported a 50-fold increase in RBC production efficiency. This image-informed bioprocess modelling framework leverages spatiotemporal niche information to enhance biochemical factor utilization and improve cell manufacturing in 3D systems.

Comparative assessment of immune evasion mechanisms in human whole-blood infection assays by a systems biology approach

Computer simulations of mathematical models open up the possibility of assessing hypotheses generated by experiments on pathogen immune evasion in human whole-blood infection assays. We apply an interdisciplinary systems biology approach in which virtual infection models implemented for the dissection of specific immune mechanisms are combined with experimental studies to validate or falsify the respective hypotheses. Focusing on the assessment of mechanisms that enable pathogens to evade the immune response in the early time course of a whole-blood infection, the least-square error (LSE) as a measure for the quantitative agreement between the theoretical and experimental kinetics is combined with the Akaike information criterion (AIC) as a measure for the model quality depending on its complexity. In particular, we compare mathematical models with three different types of pathogen immune evasion as well as all their combinations: (i) spontaneous immune evasion, (ii) evasion mediated by immune cells, and (iii) pre-existence of an immune-evasive pathogen subpopulation. For example, by testing theoretical predictions in subsequent imaging experiments, we demonstrate that the simple hypothesis of having a subpopulation of pre-existing immune-evasive pathogens can be ruled out. Furthermore, in this study we extend our previous whole-blood infection assays for the two fungal pathogens Candida albicans and C. glabrata by the bacterial pathogen Staphylococcus aureus and calibrated the model predictions to the time-resolved experimental data for each pathogen. Our quantitative assessment generally reveals that models with a lower number of parameters are not only scored with better AIC values, but also exhibit lower values for the LSE. Furthermore, we describe in detail model-specific and pathogen-specific patterns in the kinetics of cell populations that may be measured in future experiments to distinguish and pinpoint the underlying immune mechanisms.

Bespoke Turing Systems

Reaction-diffusion systems are an intensively studied form of partial differential equation, frequently used to produce spatially heterogeneous patterned states from homogeneous symmetry breaking via the Turing instability. Although there are many prototypical "Turing systems" available, determining their parameters, functional forms, and general appropriateness for a given application is often difficult. Here, we consider the reverse problem. Namely, suppose we know the parameter region associated with the reaction kinetics in which patterning is required-we present a constructive framework for identifying systems that will exhibit the Turing instability within this region, whilst in addition often allowing selection of desired patterning features, such as spots, or stripes. In particular, we show how to build a system of two populations governed by polynomial morphogen kinetics such that the: patterning parameter domain (in any spatial dimension), morphogen phases (in any spatial dimension), and even type of resulting pattern (in up to two spatial dimensions) can all be determined. Finally, by employing spatial and temporal heterogeneity, we demonstrate that mixed mode patterns (spots, stripes, and complex prepatterns) are also possible, allowing one to build arbitrarily complicated patterning landscapes. Such a framework can be employed pedagogically, or in a variety of contemporary applications in designing synthetic chemical and biological patterning systems. We also discuss the implications that this freedom of design has on using reaction-diffusion systems in biological modelling and suggest that stronger constraints are needed when linking theory and experiment, as many simple patterns can be easily generated given freedom to choose reaction kinetics.

Invading and Receding Sharp-Fronted Travelling Waves

Biological invasion, whereby populations of motile and proliferative individuals lead to moving fronts that invade vacant regions, is routinely studied using partial differential equation models based upon the classical Fisher-KPP equation. While the Fisher-KPP model and extensions have been successfully used to model a range of invasive phenomena, including ecological and cellular invasion, an often-overlooked limitation of the Fisher-KPP model is that it cannot be used to model biological recession where the spatial extent of the population decreases with time. In this work, we study the Fisher-Stefan model, which is a generalisation of the Fisher-KPP model obtained by reformulating the Fisher-KPP model as a moving boundary problem. The nondimensional Fisher-Stefan model involves just one parameter, [Formula: see text], which relates the shape of the density front at the moving boundary to the speed of the associated travelling wave, c. Using numerical simulation, phase plane and perturbation analysis, we construct approximate solutions of the Fisher-Stefan model for both slowly invading and receding travelling waves, as well as for rapidly receding travelling waves. These approximations allow us to determine the relationship between c and [Formula: see text] so that commonly reported experimental estimates of c can be used to provide estimates of the unknown parameter [Formula: see text]. Interestingly, when we reinterpret the Fisher-KPP model as a moving boundary problem, many overlooked features of the classical Fisher-KPP phase plane take on a new interpretation since travelling waves solutions with [Formula: see text] are normally disregarded. This means that our analysis of the Fisher-Stefan model has both practical value and an inherent mathematical value.

Biologically-informed neural networks guide mechanistic modeling from sparse experimental data

Biologically-informed neural networks (BINNs), an extension of physics-informed neural networks [1], are introduced and used to discover the underlying dynamics of biological systems from sparse experimental data. In the present work, BINNs are trained in a supervised learning framework to approximate in vitro cell biology assay experiments while respecting a generalized form of the governing reaction-diffusion partial differential equation (PDE). By allowing the diffusion and reaction terms to be multilayer perceptrons (MLPs), the nonlinear forms of these terms can be learned while simultaneously converging to the solution of the governing PDE. Further, the trained MLPs are used to guide the selection of biologically interpretable mechanistic forms of the PDE terms which provides new insights into the biological and physical mechanisms that govern the dynamics of the observed system. The method is evaluated on sparse real-world data from wound healing assays with varying initial cell densities [2].

In this work we extend equation learning methods to be feasible for biological applications with nonlinear dynamics and where data are often sparse and noisy. Physics-informed neural networks have recently been shown to approximate solutions of PDEs from simulated noisy data while simultaneously optimizing the PDE parameters. However, the success of this method requires the correct specification of the governing PDE, which may not be known in practice. Here, we present an extension of the algorithm that allows neural networks to learn the nonlinear terms of the governing system without the need to specify the mechanistic form of the PDE. Our method is demonstrated on real-world biological data from scratch assay experiments and used to discover a previously unconsidered biological mechanism that describes delayed population response to the scratch.

Scratch assay microscopy: A reaction-diffusion equation approach for common instruments and data

Scratch assay is an easy and widely used "in vitro" technique to study cell migration and proliferation. In this work we focus on its modelling and on the capability to distinguish between these two phenomena that the simpler and common models are not able to disentangle. We adapted a model based on reaction-diffusion equation for being used with common microscopy instruments/data and therefore taking place in the gap between simpler modelling approaches and complex ones. An optimized image analysis pipeline and numerical least-squares fit provide estimates of the scratch proliferation and diffusion coefficients l and D. This work is intended as a first of a series in which the model is tested and its robustness and reproducibility are evaluated. Test samples were NIH3T3 cells scratch assays with proliferation and migration stimulated by varying the foetal bovine serum amount in the culture medium (10%, 7.5%, 5% and 2.5%). Results demonstrate, notwithstanding an expected l-D anticorrelation, the model capability to disentangle them. The 7.5% serum treatment can be identified as the model sensitivity limit. Treat-control l and D variations showed an intra-experiment reproducibility (∼±0.05∕h and ∼±200μm²∕h respectively) consistent with single fit typical uncertainties (∼±0.02∕h and ∼±300μm²∕h respectively).

Cell proliferation and migration explain pore bridging dynamics in 3D printed scaffolds of different pore size

Tissue growth in bioscaffolds is influenced significantly by pore geometry, but how this geometric dependence emerges from dynamic cellular processes such as cell proliferation and cell migration remains poorly understood. Here we investigate the influence of pore size on the time required to bridge pores in thin 3D-printed scaffolds. Experimentally, new tissue infills the pores continually from their perimeter under strong curvature control, which leads the tissue front to round off with time. Despite the varied shapes assumed by the tissue during this evolution, we find that time to bridge a pore simply increases linearly with the overall pore size. To disentangle the biological influence of cell behaviour and the mechanistic influence of geometry in this experimental observation, we propose a simple reaction-diffusion model of tissue growth based on Porous-Fisher invasion of cells into the pores. First, this model provides a good qualitative representation of the evolution of the tissue; new tissue in the model grows at an effective rate that depends on the local curvature of the tissue substrate. Second, the model suggests that a linear dependence of bridging time with pore size arises due to geometric reasons alone, not to differences in cell behaviours across pores of different sizes. Our analysis suggests that tissue growth dynamics in these experimental constructs is dominated by mechanistic crowding effects that influence collective cell proliferation and migration processes, and that can be predicted by simple reaction-diffusion models of cells that have robust, consistent behaviours.

Learning Equations from Biological Data with Limited Time Samples

Equation learning methods present a promising tool to aid scientists in the modeling process for biological data. Previous equation learning studies have demonstrated that these methods can infer models from rich datasets; however, the performance of these methods in the presence of common challenges from biological data has not been thoroughly explored. We present an equation learning methodology comprised of data denoising, equation learning, model selection and post-processing steps that infers a dynamical systems model from noisy spatiotemporal data. The performance of this methodology is thoroughly investigated in the face of several common challenges presented by biological data, namely, sparse data sampling, large noise levels, and heterogeneity between datasets. We find that this methodology can accurately infer the correct underlying equation and predict unobserved system dynamics from a small number of time samples when the data are sampled over a time interval exhibiting both linear and nonlinear dynamics. Our findings suggest that equation learning methods can be used for model discovery and selection in many areas of biology when an informative dataset is used. We focus on glioblastoma multiforme modeling as a case study in this work to highlight how these results are informative for data-driven modeling-based tumor invasion predictions.

Population Dynamics with Threshold Effects Give Rise to a Diverse Family of Allee Effects

The Allee effect describes populations that deviate from logistic growth models and arises in applications including ecology and cell biology. A common justification for incorporating Allee effects into population models is that the population in question has altered growth mechanisms at some critical density, often referred to as a threshold effect. Despite the ubiquitous nature of threshold effects arising in various biological applications, the explicit link between local threshold effects and global Allee effects has not been considered. In this work, we examine a continuum population model that incorporates threshold effects in the local growth mechanisms. We show that this model gives rise to a diverse family of Allee effects, and we provide a comprehensive analysis of which choices of local growth mechanisms give rise to specific Allee effects. Calibrating this model to a recent set of experimental data describing the growth of a population of cancer cells provides an interpretation of the threshold population density and growth mechanisms associated with the population.

Identifying density-dependent interactions in collective cell behaviour

Scratch assays are routinely used to study collective cell behaviour in vitro. Typical experimental protocols do not vary the initial density of cells, and typical mathematical modelling approaches describe cell motility and proliferation based on assumptions of linear diffusion and logistic growth. Jin et al. (Jin et al. 2016 J. Theor. Biol. 390, 136-145 (doi:10.1016/j.jtbi.2015.10.040)) find that the behaviour of cells in scratch assays is density-dependent, and show that standard modelling approaches cannot simultaneously describe data initiated across a range of initial densities. To address this limitation, we calibrate an individual-based model to scratch assay data across a large range of initial densities. Our model allows proliferation, motility, and a direction bias to depend on interactions between neighbouring cells. By considering a hierarchy of models where we systematically and sequentially remove interactions, we perform model selection analysis to identify the minimum interactions required for the model to simultaneously describe data across all initial densities. The calibrated model is able to match the experimental data across all densities using a single parameter distribution, and captures details about the spatial structure of cells. Our results provide strong evidence to suggest that motility is density-dependent in these experiments. On the other hand, we do not see the effect of crowding on proliferation in these experiments. These results are significant as they are precisely the opposite of the assumptions in standard continuum models, such as the Fisher-Kolmogorov equation and its generalizations.

A practical guide to pseudo-marginal methods for computational inference in systems biology

For many stochastic models of interest in systems biology, such as those describing biochemical reaction networks, exact quantification of parameter uncertainty through statistical inference is intractable. Likelihood-free computational inference techniques enable parameter inference when the likelihood function for the model is intractable but the generation of many sample paths is feasible through stochastic simulation of the forward problem. The most common likelihood-free method in systems biology is approximate Bayesian computation that accepts parameters that result in low discrepancy between stochastic simulations and measured data. However, it can be difficult to assess how the accuracy of the resulting inferences are affected by the choice of acceptance threshold and discrepancy function. The pseudo-marginal approach is an alternative likelihood-free inference method that utilises a Monte Carlo estimate of the likelihood function. This approach has several advantages, particularly in the context of noisy, partially observed, time-course data typical in biochemical reaction network studies. Specifically, the pseudo-marginal approach facilitates exact inference and uncertainty quantification, and may be efficiently combined with particle filters for low variance, high-accuracy likelihood estimation. In this review, we provide a practical introduction to the pseudo-marginal approach using inference for biochemical reaction networks as a series of case studies. Implementations of key algorithms and examples are provided using the Julia programming language; a high performance, open source programming language for scientific computing (https://github.com/davidwarne/Warne2019_GuideToPseudoMarginal).

Simulation and inference algorithms for stochastic biochemical reaction networks: from basic concepts to state-of-the-art

Stochasticity is a key characteristic of intracellular processes such as gene regulation and chemical signalling. Therefore, characterizing stochastic effects in biochemical systems is essential to understand the complex dynamics of living things. Mathematical idealizations of biochemically reacting systems must be able to capture stochastic phenomena. While robust theory exists to describe such stochastic models, the computational challenges in exploring these models can be a significant burden in practice since realistic models are analytically intractable. Determining the expected behaviour and variability of a stochastic biochemical reaction network requires many probabilistic simulations of its evolution. Using a biochemical reaction network model to assist in the interpretation of time-course data from a biological experiment is an even greater challenge due to the intractability of the likelihood function for determining observation probabilities. These computational challenges have been subjects of active research for over four decades. In this review, we present an accessible discussion of the major historical developments and state-of-the-art computational techniques relevant to simulation and inference problems for stochastic biochemical reaction network models. Detailed algorithms for particularly important methods are described and complemented with Matlab^® implementations. As a result, this review provides a practical and accessible introduction to computational methods for stochastic models within the life sciences community.

Practical parameter identifiability for spatio-temporal models of cell invasion

We examine the practical identifiability of parameters in a spatio-temporal reaction-diffusion model of a scratch assay. Experimental data involve fluorescent cell cycle labels, providing spatial information about cell position and temporal information about the cell cycle phase. Cell cycle labelling is incorporated into the reaction-diffusion model by treating the total population as two interacting subpopulations. Practical identifiability is examined using a Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) framework, confirming that the parameters are identifiable when we assume the diffusivities of the subpopulations are identical, but that the parameters are practically non-identifiable when we allow the diffusivities to be distinct. We also assess practical identifiability using a profile likelihood approach, providing similar results to MCMC with the advantage of being an order of magnitude faster to compute. Therefore, we suggest that the profile likelihood ought to be adopted as a screening tool to assess practical identifiability before MCMC computations are performed.

Modelling collective cell migration: neural crest as a model paradigm

A huge variety of mathematical models have been used to investigate collective cell migration. The aim of this brief review is twofold: to present a number of modelling approaches that incorporate the key factors affecting cell migration, including cell-cell and cell-tissue interactions, as well as domain growth, and to showcase their application to model the migration of neural crest cells. We discuss the complementary strengths of microscale and macroscale models, and identify why it can be important to understand how these modelling approaches are related. We consider neural crest cell migration as a model paradigm to illustrate how the application of different mathematical modelling techniques, combined with experimental results, can provide new biological insights. We conclude by highlighting a number of future challenges for the mathematical modelling of neural crest cell migration.

Revisiting the Fisher-Kolmogorov-Petrovsky-Piskunov equation to interpret the spreading-extinction dichotomy

The Fisher-Kolmogorov-Petrovsky-Piskunov model, also known as the Fisher-KPP model, supports travelling wave solutions that are successfully used to model numerous invasive phenomena with applications in biology, ecology and combustion theory. However, there are certain phenomena that the Fisher-KPP model cannot replicate, such as the extinction of invasive populations. The Fisher-Stefan model is an adaptation of the Fisher-KPP model to include a moving boundary whose evolution is governed by a Stefan condition. The Fisher-Stefan model also supports travelling wave solutions; however, a key additional feature of the Fisher-Stefan model is that it is able to simulate population extinction, giving rise to a spreading-extinction dichotomy. In this work, we revisit travelling wave solutions of the Fisher-KPP model and show that these results provide new insight into travelling wave solutions of the Fisher-Stefan model and the spreading-extinction dichotomy. Using a combination of phase plane analysis, perturbation analysis and linearization, we establish a concrete relationship between travelling wave solutions of the Fisher-Stefan model and often-neglected travelling wave solutions of the Fisher-KPP model. Furthermore, we give closed-form approximate expressions for the shape of the travelling wave solutions of the Fisher-Stefan model in the limit of slow travelling wave speeds, c≪1.