A Novel Unification Method to Characterize a Broad Class of Growth Curve Models Using Relative Growth Rate

Revisiting and redefining return rate for determination of the precise growth status of a species

Growth curve models play an instrumental role in quantifying the growth of biological processes and have immense practical applications across all disciplines. The most popular growth metric to capture the species fitness is the "Relative Growth Rate" in this domain. The different growth laws, such as exponential, logistic, Gompertz, power, and generalized Gompertz or generalized logistic, can be characterized based on the monotonic behavior of the relative growth rate (RGR) to size or time. Thus, in this case, species fitness can be determined truly through RGR. However, in nature, RGR is often non-monotonic and specifically bell-shaped, especially in the situation when a species is adapting to a new environment [1]. In this case, species may experience with the same fitness (RGR) for two different time points. The species precise growth and maturity status cannot be determined from this RGR function. The instantaneous maturity rate (IMR), as proposed by [2], helps to determine the correct maturity status of the species. Nevertheless, the metric IMR suffers from severe drawbacks; (i) IMR is intractable for all non-integer values of a specific parameter. (ii) The measure depends on a model parameter. The mathematical expression of IMR possesses the term "carrying capacity" which is unknown to the experimenter. (iii) Note that for identifying the precise growth status of a species, it is also necessary to understand its response when the populations are deflected from their equilibrium position at carrying capacity. This is an established concept in population biology, popularly known as the return rate. However, IMR does not provide information on the species deflection rate at the steady state. Hence, we propose a new growth measure connected with the species return rate, termed the "reverse of relative of relative growth rate" (henceforth, RRRGR), which is treated as a proxy for the IMR, having similar mathematical properties. Finally, we introduce a stochastic RRRGR model for specifying precise species growth and status of maturity. We illustrate the model through numerical simulations and real fish data. We believe that this study would be helpful for fishery biologists in regulating the favorable conditions of growth so that the species can reach a steady state with optimum effort.

Instantaneous maturity rate: a novel and compact characterization of biological growth curve models

Modeling and analysis of biological growth curves are an age-old study area in which much effort has been dedicated to developing new growth equations. Recent efforts focus on identifying the correct model from a large number of equations. The relative growth rate (RGR), developed by Fisher (1921), has largely been used in the statistical inference of biological growth curve models. It is convenient to express growth equations using RGR, where RGR can be expressed as functions of size or time. Even though RGR is model invariant, it has limitations when it comes to identifying actual growth patterns. By proposing interval-specific rate parameters (ISRPs), Pal et al. (2018) appeared to solve this problem. The ISRP is based on the mathematical structure of the growth equations. Therefore, it is not model invariant. The current effort is to develop a measure of growth that is model invariant like RGR and shares the advantages of ISRP. We propose a new measure of growth, which we call instantaneous maturity rate (IMR). IMR is model invariant, which allows it to distinguish growth patterns more clearly than RGR. IMR is also scale-invariant and can take several forms including increasing, decreasing, constant, sigmoidal, bell-shaped, and bathtub. A wide range of possible IMR shapes makes it possible to identify different growth curves. The estimation procedure of IMR under a stochastic setup has been developed. Statistical properties of empirical IMR estimators have also been investigated in detail. In addition to extensive simulation studies, real data sets have been analyzed to prove the utility of IMR.

Statistical analysis and first-passage-time applications of a lognormal diffusion process with multi-sigmoidal logistic mean

We consider a lognormal diffusion process having a multisigmoidal logistic mean, useful to model the evolution of a population which reaches the maximum level of the growth after many stages. Referring to the problem of statistical inference, two procedures to find the maximum likelihood estimates of the unknown parameters are described. One is based on the resolution of the system of the critical points of the likelihood function, and the other is on the maximization of the likelihood function with the simulated annealing algorithm. A simulation study to validate the described strategies for finding the estimates is also presented, with a real application to epidemiological data. Special attention is also devoted to the first-passage-time problem of the considered diffusion process through a fixed boundary.

A generalized Gompertz growth model with applications and related birth-death processes

In this paper, we propose a flexible growth model that constitutes a suitable generalization of the well-known Gompertz model. We perform an analysis of various features of interest, including a sensitivity analysis of the initial value and the three parameters of the model. We show that the considered model provides a good fit to some real datasets concerning the growth of the number of individuals infected during the COVID-19 outbreak, and software failure data. The goodness of fit is established on the ground of the ISRP metric and the \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$d_2$$\end{document}d2-distance. We also analyze two time-inhomogeneous stochastic processes, namely a birth-death process and a birth process, whose means are equal to the proposed growth curve. In the first case we obtain the probability of ultimate extinction, being 0 an absorbing endpoint. We also deal with a threshold crossing problem both for the proposed growth curve and the corresponding birth process. A simulation procedure for the latter process is also exploited.