Artificial neural network model for predicting 5-year mortality after surgery for hepatocellular carcinoma: a nationwide study

Predicting hepatocellular carcinoma survival with artificial intelligence

Despite the extensive research on hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) exploring various treatment strategies, the survival outcomes have remained unsatisfactory. The aim of this research was to evaluate the ability of machine learning (ML) methods in predicting the survival probability of HCC patients. The study retrospectively analyzed cases of patients with stage 1-4 HCC. Demographic, clinical, pathological, and laboratory data served as input variables. The researchers employed various feature selection techniques to identify the key predictors of patient mortality. Additionally, the study utilized a range of machine learning methods to model patient survival rates. The study included 393 individuals with HCC. For early-stage patients (stages 1-2), the models reached recall values ​​of up to 91% for 6-month survival prediction. For advanced-stage patients (stage 4), the models achieved accuracy values ​​of up to 92% for 3-year overall survival prediction. To predict whether patients are ex or not, the accuracy was 87.5% when using all 28 features without feature selection with the best performance coming from the implementation of weighted KNN. Further improvements in accuracy, reaching 87.8%, were achieved by applying feature selection methods and using a medium Gaussian SVM. This study demonstrates that machine learning techniques can reliably predict survival probabilities for HCC patients across all disease stages. The research also shows that AI models can accurately identify a high proportion of surviving individuals when assessing various clinical and pathological factors.

Predictive value of a constructed artificial neural network model for microvascular invasion in hepatocellular carcinoma: A retrospective study

BACKGROUND

Microvascular invasion (MVI) is a significant risk factor for recurrence and metastasis following hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) surgery. Currently, there is a paucity of preoperative evaluation approaches for MVI.

AIM

To investigate the predictive value of texture features and radiological signs based on multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging in the non-invasive preoperative prediction of MVI in HCC.

METHODS

Clinical data from 97 HCC patients were retrospectively collected from January 2019 to July 2022 at our hospital. Patients were classified into two groups: MVI-positive (n = 57) and MVI-negative (n = 40), based on postoperative pathological results. The correlation between relevant radiological signs and MVI status was analyzed. MaZda4.6 software and the mutual information method were employed to identify the top 10 dominant texture features, which were combined with radiological signs to construct artificial neural network (ANN) models for MVI prediction. The predictive performance of the ANN models was evaluated using area under the curve, sensitivity, and specificity. ANN models with relatively high predictive performance were screened using the DeLong test, and the regression model of multilayer feedforward ANN with backpropagation and error backpropagation learning method was used to evaluate the models' stability.

RESULTS

The absence of a pseudocapsule, an incomplete pseudocapsule, and the presence of tumor blood vessels were identified as independent predictors of HCC MVI. The ANN model constructed using the dominant features of the combined group (pseudocapsule status + tumor blood vessels + arterial phase + venous phase) demonstrated the best predictive performance for MVI status and was found to be automated, highly operable, and very stable.

CONCLUSION

The ANN model constructed using the dominant features of the combined group can be recommended as a non-invasive method for preoperative prediction of HCC MVI status.

A machine learning-based prediction model pre-operatively for functional recovery after 1-year of hip fracture surgery in older people

Background

Machine learning (ML) has been widely utilized for constructing high-performance prediction models. This study aimed to develop a preoperative machine learning-based prediction model to identify functional recovery one year after hip fracture surgery.

Methods

We collected data from 176 elderly hip fracture patients admitted to the Department of Orthopaedics and Oncology at Shenzhen Second People's Hospital between May 2019 and December 2019, who met the inclusion criteria. Patient's functional recovery was monitored for one year after surgery. We selected 26 factors, comprising 12 preoperative indicators, 8 surgical indicators, and 6 postoperative indicators. Eventually, 77 patients were included based on the exclusion criteria. Random allocation divided them into the training set (70%) and test set (30%) for internal validation. The Lasso method was employed to screen prognostic variables. We conducted comparisons among various common machine learning classifiers to determine the best prediction model. Prediction performance was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC), calibration curve, and decision curve analysis. To identify the importance of the predictor variables, we performed the recursive feature elimination (RFE) algorithm based on Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) values.

Results

The AUCs for the testing dataset were as follows: logistic regression (Logit) model = 0.934, k-nearest neighbors (KNN) model = 0.930, support vector machine (SVM) model = 0.910, Gaussian naive Bayes (GNB) model = 0.926, decision tree (DT) model = 0.730, random forest (RF) model = 0.957, and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGB) model = 0.902. Among the seven ML-based models tested, the RF model demonstrated the best prediction performance, incorporating four features: postoperative rehabilitation compliance, marital status, age-adjusted Charlson comorbidity score (aCCI), and clinical frailty scale (CFS).

Conclusion

We developed a prediction model for the functional recovery following hip fracture surgery in elderly patients after one year, based on the Random Forest (RF) algorithm. This model exhibited superior prediction performance (ROC) compared to other models. The software application is available for use. External validation in a larger patient cohort or diverse hospital settings is necessary to assess the clinical utility of this tool.

The Role of Radiomics and AI Technologies in the Segmentation, Detection, and Management of Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the most common primary hepatic neoplasm. Thanks to recent advances in computed tomography (CT) and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), there is potential to improve detection, segmentation, discrimination from HCC mimics, and monitoring of therapeutic response. Radiomics, artificial intelligence (AI), and derived tools have already been applied in other areas of diagnostic imaging with promising results. In this review, we briefly discuss the current clinical applications of radiomics and AI in the detection, segmentation, and management of HCC. Moreover, we investigate their potential to reach a more accurate diagnosis of HCC and to guide proper treatment planning.

Machine learning insights concerning inflammatory and liver-related risk comorbidities in non-communicable and viral diseases

The liver is a key organ involved in a wide range of functions, whose damage can lead to chronic liver disease (CLD). CLD accounts for more than two million deaths worldwide, becoming a social and economic burden for most countries. Among the different factors that can cause CLD, alcohol abuse, viruses, drug treatments, and unhealthy dietary patterns top the list. These conditions prompt and perpetuate an inflammatory environment and oxidative stress imbalance that favor the development of hepatic fibrogenesis. High stages of fibrosis can eventually lead to cirrhosis or hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Despite the advances achieved in this field, new approaches are needed for the prevention, diagnosis, treatment, and prognosis of CLD. In this context, the scientific com-munity is using machine learning (ML) algorithms to integrate and process vast amounts of data with unprecedented performance. ML techniques allow the integration of anthropometric, genetic, clinical, biochemical, dietary, lifestyle and omics data, giving new insights to tackle CLD and bringing personalized medicine a step closer. This review summarizes the investigations where ML techniques have been applied to study new approaches that could be used in inflammatory-related, hepatitis viruses-induced, and coronavirus disease 2019-induced liver damage and enlighten the factors involved in CLD development.

Machine Learning Algorithms for understanding the determinants of under-five Mortality

BACKGROUND

Under-five mortality is a matter of serious concern for child health as well as the social development of any country. The paper aimed to find the accuracy of machine learning models in predicting under-five mortality and identify the most significant factors associated with under-five mortality.

METHOD

The data was taken from the National Family Health Survey (NFHS-IV) of Uttar Pradesh. First, we used multivariate logistic regression due to its capability for predicting the important factors, then we used machine learning techniques such as decision tree, random forest, Naïve Bayes, K- nearest neighbor (KNN), logistic regression, support vector machine (SVM), neural network, and ridge classifier. Each model's accuracy was checked by a confusion matrix, accuracy, precision, recall, F1 score, Cohen's Kappa, and area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUROC). Information gain rank was used to find the important factors for under-five mortality. Data analysis was performed using, STATA-16.0, Python 3.3, and IBM SPSS Statistics for Windows, Version 27.0 software.

RESULT

By applying the machine learning models, results showed that the neural network model was the best predictive model for under-five mortality when compared with other predictive models, with model accuracy of (95.29% to 95.96%), recall (71.51% to 81.03%), precision (36.64% to 51.83%), F1 score (50.46% to 62.68%), Cohen's Kappa value (0.48 to 0.60), AUROC range (93.51% to 96.22%) and precision-recall curve range (99.52% to 99.73%). The neural network was the most efficient model, but logistic regression also shows well for predicting under-five mortality with accuracy (94% to 95%)., AUROC range (93.4% to 94.8%), and precision-recall curve (99.5% to 99.6%). The number of living children, survival time, wealth index, child size at birth, birth in the last five years, the total number of children ever born, mother's education level, and birth order were identified as important factors influencing under-five mortality.

CONCLUSION

The neural network model was a better predictive model compared to other machine learning models in predicting under-five mortality, but logistic regression analysis also shows good results. These models may be helpful for the analysis of high-dimensional data for health research.

Development and internal validation of a machine-learning-developed model for predicting 1-year mortality after fragility hip fracture

Background

Fragility hip fracture increases morbidity and mortality in older adult patients, especially within the first year. Identification of patients at high risk of death facilitates modification of associated perioperative factors that can reduce mortality. Various machine learning algorithms have been developed and are widely used in healthcare research, particularly for mortality prediction. This study aimed to develop and internally validate 7 machine learning models to predict 1-year mortality after fragility hip fracture.

Methods

This retrospective study included patients with fragility hip fractures from a single center (Siriraj Hospital, Bangkok, Thailand) from July 2016 to October 2018. A total of 492 patients were enrolled. They were randomly categorized into a training group (344 cases, 70%) or a testing group (148 cases, 30%). Various machine learning techniques were used: the Gradient Boosting Classifier (GB), Random Forests Classifier (RF), Artificial Neural Network Classifier (ANN), Logistic Regression Classifier (LR), Naive Bayes Classifier (NB), Support Vector Machine Classifier (SVM), and K-Nearest Neighbors Classifier (KNN). All models were internally validated by evaluating their performance and the area under a receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC).

Results

For the testing dataset, the accuracies were GB model = 0.93, RF model = 0.95, ANN model = 0.94, LR model = 0.91, NB model = 0.89, SVM model = 0.90, and KNN model = 0.90. All models achieved high AUCs that ranged between 0.81 and 0.99. The RF model also provided a negative predictive value of 0.96, a positive predictive value of 0.93, a specificity of 0.99, and a sensitivity of 0.68.

Conclusions

Our machine learning approach facilitated the successful development of an accurate model to predict 1-year mortality after fragility hip fracture. Several machine learning algorithms (eg, Gradient Boosting and Random Forest) had the potential to provide high predictive performance based on the clinical parameters of each patient. The web application is available at www.hipprediction.com. External validation in a larger group of patients or in different hospital settings is warranted to evaluate the clinical utility of this tool.

Trial registration

Thai Clinical Trials Registry (22 February 2021; reg. no. TCTR20210222003).

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12877-022-03152-x.

Role of three-dimensional printing and artificial intelligence in the management of hepatocellular carcinoma: Challenges and opportunities

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) constitutes the fifth most frequent malignancy worldwide and the third most frequent cause of cancer-related deaths. Currently, treatment selection is based on the stage of the disease. Emerging fields such as three-dimensional (3D) printing, 3D bioprinting, artificial intelligence (AI), and machine learning (ML) could lead to evidence-based, individualized management of HCC. In this review, we comprehensively report the current applications of 3D printing, 3D bioprinting, and AI/ML-based models in HCC management; we outline the significant challenges to the broad use of these novel technologies in the clinical setting with the goal of identifying means to overcome them, and finally, we discuss the opportunities that arise from these applications. Notably, regarding 3D printing and bioprinting-related challenges, we elaborate on cost and cost-effectiveness, cell sourcing, cell viability, safety, accessibility, regulation, and legal and ethical concerns. Similarly, regarding AI/ML-related challenges, we elaborate on intellectual property, liability, intrinsic biases, data protection, cybersecurity, ethical challenges, and transparency. Our findings show that AI and 3D printing applications in HCC management and healthcare, in general, are steadily expanding; thus, these technologies will be integrated into the clinical setting sooner or later. Therefore, we believe that physicians need to become familiar with these technologies and prepare to engage with them constructively.

Machine Learning-Based Short-Term Mortality Prediction Models for Patients With Cancer Using Electronic Health Record Data: Systematic Review and Critical Appraisal

BACKGROUND

In the United States, national guidelines suggest that aggressive cancer care should be avoided in the final months of life. However, guideline compliance currently requires clinicians to make judgments based on their experience as to when a patient is nearing the end of their life. Machine learning (ML) algorithms may facilitate improved end-of-life care provision for patients with cancer by identifying patients at risk of short-term mortality.

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to summarize the evidence for applying ML in ≤1-year cancer mortality prediction to assist with the transition to end-of-life care for patients with cancer.

METHODS

We searched MEDLINE, Embase, Scopus, Web of Science, and IEEE to identify relevant articles. We included studies describing ML algorithms predicting ≤1-year mortality in patients of oncology. We used the prediction model risk of bias assessment tool to assess the quality of the included studies.

RESULTS

We included 15 articles involving 110,058 patients in the final synthesis. Of the 15 studies, 12 (80%) had a high or unclear risk of bias. The model performance was good: the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve ranged from 0.72 to 0.92. We identified common issues leading to biased models, including using a single performance metric, incomplete reporting of or inappropriate modeling practice, and small sample size.

CONCLUSIONS

We found encouraging signs of ML performance in predicting short-term cancer mortality. Nevertheless, no included ML algorithms are suitable for clinical practice at the current stage because of the high risk of bias and uncertainty regarding real-world performance. Further research is needed to develop ML models using the modern standards of algorithm development and reporting.

Potential and role of artificial intelligence in current medical healthcare

Artificial intelligence (AI) is defined as the digital computer or computer-controlled robot's ability to mimic intelligent conduct and crucial thinking commonly associated with intelligent beings. The application of AI technology and machine learning in medicine have allowed medical practitioners to provide patients with better quality of services; and current advancements have led to a dramatic change in the healthcare system. However, many efficient applications are still in their initial stages, which need further evaluations to improve and develop these applications. Clinicians must recognize and acclimate themselves with the developments in AI technology to improve their delivery of healthcare services; but for this to be possible, a significant revision of medical education is needed to provide future leaders with the required competencies. This article reviews the potential and limitations of AI in healthcare, as well as the current medical application trends including healthcare administration, clinical decision assistance, patient health monitoring, healthcare resource allocation, medical research, and public health policy development. Also, future possibilities for further clinical and scientific practice were also summarized.

Challenges and opportunities in the application of artificial intelligence in gastroenterology and hepatology

Artificial intelligence (AI) is an umbrella term used to describe a cluster of interrelated fields. Machine learning (ML) refers to a model that learns from past data to predict future data. Medicine and particularly gastroenterology and hepatology, are data-rich fields with extensive data repositories, and therefore fruitful ground for AI/ML-based software applications. In this study, we comprehensively review the current applications of AI/ML-based models in these fields and the opportunities that arise from their application. Specifically, we refer to the applications of AI/ML-based models in prevention, diagnosis, management, and prognosis of gastrointestinal bleeding, inflammatory bowel diseases, gastrointestinal premalignant and malignant lesions, other nonmalignant gastrointestinal lesions and diseases, hepatitis B and C infection, chronic liver diseases, hepatocellular carcinoma, cholangiocarcinoma, and primary sclerosing cholangitis. At the same time, we identify the major challenges that restrain the widespread use of these models in healthcare in an effort to explore ways to overcome them. Notably, we elaborate on the concerns regarding intrinsic biases, data protection, cybersecurity, intellectual property, liability, ethical challenges, and transparency. Even at a slower pace than anticipated, AI is infiltrating the healthcare industry. AI in healthcare will become a reality, and every physician will have to engage with it by necessity.

Machine learning in gastrointestinal surgery

Machine learning (ML) is a collection of algorithms allowing computers to learn directly from data without predetermined equations. It is used widely to analyze "big data". In gastrointestinal surgery, surgeons deal with various data such as clinical parameters, surgical videos, and pathological images, to stratify surgical risk, perform safe surgery and predict patient prognosis. In the current "big data" era, the accelerating accumulation of a large amount of data drives studies using ML algorithms. Three subfields of ML are supervised learning, unsupervised learning, and reinforcement learning. In this review, we summarize applications of ML to surgical practice in the preoperative, intraoperative, and postoperative phases of care. Prediction and stratification using ML is promising; however, the current overarching concern is the availability of ML models. Information systems that can manage "big data" and integrate ML models into electronic health records are essential to incorporate ML into daily practice. ML is fundamental technology to meaningfully process data that exceeds the capacity of the human mind to comprehend. The accelerating accumulation of a large amount of data is changing the nature of surgical practice fundamentally. Artificial intelligence (AI), represented by ML, is being incorporated into daily surgical practice.

Clinical value of artificial intelligence in hepatocellular carcinoma: Current status and prospect

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the most commonly diagnosed type of liver cancer and the fourth leading cause of cancer-related mortality worldwide. The early identification of HCC and effective treatments for it have been challenging. Due to the sufficient compensatory ability of early patients and its nonspecific symptoms, HCC is more likely to escape diagnosis in the incipient stage, during which patients can achieve a more satisfying overall survival if they undergo resection or liver transplantation. Patients at advanced stages can profit from radical therapies in a limited way. In order to improve the unfavorable prognosis of HCC, diagnostic ability and treatment efficiency must be improved. The past decade has seen rapid advancements in artificial intelligence, underlying its unique usefulness in almost every field, including that of medicine. Herein, we sought and reviewed studies that put emphasis on artificial intelligence and HCC.

Artificial intelligence in transplantation (machine-learning classifiers and transplant oncology)

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

To highlight recent efforts in the development and implementation of machine learning in transplant oncology - a field that uses liver transplantation for the treatment of hepatobiliary malignancies - and particularly in hepatocellular carcinoma, the most commonly treated diagnosis in transplant oncology.

RECENT FINDINGS

The development of machine learning has occurred within three domains related to hepatocellular carcinoma: identification of key clinicopathological variables, genomics, and image processing.

SUMMARY

Machine-learning classifiers can be effectively applied for more accurate clinical prediction and handling of data, such as genetics and imaging in transplant oncology. This has allowed for the identification of factors that most significantly influence recurrence and survival in disease, such as hepatocellular carcinoma, and thus help in prognosticating patients who may benefit from a liver transplant. Although progress has been made in using these methods to analyse clinicopathological information, genomic profiles, and image processed data (both histopathological and radiomic), future progress relies on integrating data across these domains.

Prognostic role of artificial intelligence among patients with hepatocellular cancer: A systematic review

BACKGROUND

Prediction of survival after the treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) has been widely investigated, yet remains inadequate. The application of artificial intelligence (AI) is emerging as a valid adjunct to traditional statistics due to the ability to process vast amounts of data and find hidden interconnections between variables. AI and deep learning are increasingly employed in several topics of liver cancer research, including diagnosis, pathology, and prognosis.

AIM

To assess the role of AI in the prediction of survival following HCC treatment.

METHODS

A web-based literature search was performed according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systemic Reviews and Meta-Analysis guidelines using the keywords “artificial intelligence”, “deep learning” and “hepatocellular carcinoma” (and synonyms). The specific research question was formulated following the patient (patients with HCC), intervention (evaluation of HCC treatment using AI), comparison (evaluation without using AI), and outcome (patient death and/or tumor recurrence) structure. English language articles were retrieved, screened, and reviewed by the authors. The quality of the papers was assessed using the Risk of Bias In Non-randomized Studies of Interventions tool. Data were extracted and collected in a database.

RESULTS

Among the 598 articles screened, nine papers met the inclusion criteria, six of which had low-risk rates of bias. Eight articles were published in the last decade; all came from eastern countries. Patient sample size was extremely heterogenous (n = 11-22926). AI methodologies employed included artificial neural networks (ANN) in six studies, as well as support vector machine, artificial plant optimization, and peritumoral radiomics in the remaining three studies. All the studies testing the role of ANN compared the performance of ANN with traditional statistics. Training cohorts were used to train the neural networks that were then applied to validation cohorts. In all cases, the AI models demonstrated superior predictive performance compared with traditional statistics with significantly improved areas under the curve.

CONCLUSION

AI applied to survival prediction after HCC treatment provided enhanced accuracy compared with conventional linear systems of analysis. Improved transferability and reproducibility will facilitate the widespread use of AI methodologies.

Development of machine learning-based clinical decision support system for hepatocellular carcinoma

There is a significant discrepancy between the actual choice for initial treatment option for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and recommendations from the currently used BCLC staging system. We develop a machine learning-based clinical decision support system (CDSS) for recommending initial treatment option in HCC and predicting overall survival (OS). From hospital records of 1,021 consecutive patients with HCC treated at a single centre in Korea between January 2010 and October 2010, we collected information on 61 pretreatment variables, initial treatment, and survival status. Twenty pretreatment key variables were finally selected. We developed the CDSS from the derivation set (N = 813) using random forest method and validated it in the validation set (N = 208). Among the 1,021 patients (mean age: 56.9 years), 81.8% were male and 77.0% had positive hepatitis B BCLC stages 0, A, B, C, and D were observed in 13.4%, 26.0%, 18.0%, 36.6%, and 6.3% of patients, respectively. The six multi-step classifier model was developed for treatment decision in a hierarchical manner, and showed good performance with 81.0% of accuracy for radiofrequency ablation (RFA) or resection versus not, 88.4% for RFA versus resection, and 76.8% for TACE or not. We also developed seven survival prediction models for each treatment option. Our newly developed HCC-CDSS model showed good performance in terms of treatment recommendation and OS prediction and may be used as a guidance in deciding the initial treatment option for HCC.

Modern perioperative medicine - past, present, and future

Modern perioperative medicine has dramatically altered the care for patients undergoing major surgery. Anaesthetic and surgical practice has been directed at mitigating the surgical stress response and reducing physiological insult. The development of standardised enhanced recovery programmes combined with minimally invasive surgical techniques has lead to reduction in length of stay, morbidity, costs, and improved outcomes. The enhanced recovery after surgery (ERAS) society and its national chapters provide a means for sharing best practice in this field and developing evidence based guidelines. Research has highlighted persisting challenges with compliance as well as ensuring the effectiveness and sustainability of ERAS. There is also a growing need for increasingly personalised care programmes as well as complex geriatric assessment of frailer patients. Continuous collection of outcome and process data combined with machine learning, offers a potentially powerful solution to delivering bespoke care pathways and optimising individual management. Long-term data from ERAS programmes remain scarce and further evaluation of functional recovery and quality of life is required.

A survey on machine learning algorithms for the blood donation supply chain

With the proliferation of big data, the need for intelligent and automated systems has risen. This need is probably felt the most in the field of health care, especially in the area of blood transfusion, since they require supplies at the earliest. Currently, transfusion services are heavily manual in nature, which is not ideal. The rising demand for blood and the decline in donation rates has put a lot of strain on the blood donation supply chain. Hence, creating intelligent systems that can make decisions and improve communication across the supply chain is of great importance. In this paper, we are going to give a general summary of the various machine learning techniques which have been applied to this domain and compare their advantages and disadvantages.

Artificial Neural Network Individualised Prediction of Time to Colorectal Cancer Surgery

Aim

Colorectal cancer pathway targets mandate prompt treatment although practicalities may mean patients wait for surgery. This variable period could be utilised for patient optimisation; however, there is currently no reliable predictive system for time to surgery. If individualised surgical waits were prospectively known, tailored prehabilitation could be introduced.

Methods

A dedicated, prospectively populated elective laparoscopic surgery for colorectal cancer with a curative intent database was utilised. Primary endpoint was the prediction of the individualised waiting time for surgery. A multilayered perceptron artificial neural network (ANN) model was trained and tested alongside uni- and multivariate analyses.

Results

668 consecutive patients were included. 8.5% underwent neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy. The mean time from diagnosis to surgery was 53 days (95% CI 48.3-57.8). ANN correctly identified those having surgery in <8 (97.7% and 98.8%) and <12 weeks (97.1% and 98.8%) of the training and testing cohorts with area under the receiver operating curves of 0.793 and 0.865, respectively. After neoadjuvant treatment, an ASA physical status score was the most important potentially modifiable risk factor for prolonged waits (normalised importance 64%, OR 4.9, 95% CI 1.5-16). The ANN findings were accurately cross-validated with a logistic regression model.

Conclusion

Artificial neural networks using demographic and diagnostic data successfully predict individual time to colorectal cancer surgery. This could assist the personalisation of preoperative care including the incorporation of prehabilitation interventions.

Establishment of multiple diagnosis models for colorectal cancer with artificial neural networks

The current study aimed to develop multiple diagnosis models for colorectal cancer (CRC) based on data from The Cancer Genome Atlas database and analysis with artificial neural networks in order to enhance CRC diagnosis methods. A genetic algorithm and mean impact value were used to select genes to be used as numerical encoded parameters to reflect cancer metastasis or aggression. Back propagation and learning vector quantization neural networks were used to build four diagnosis models: Cancer/Normal, M0/M1, carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) <5/≥5 and Clinical stage I-II/III-IV. The performance of each model was evaluated by predictive accuracy (ACC), the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and a 10-fold cross-validation test. The ACC and AUC of the Cancer/Normal, M0/M1, CEA and Clinical stage models were 100%, 1.000; 87.14%, 0.670; 100%, 1.000; and 100%, 1.000, respectively. The 10-fold cross-validation test of the ACC values and sensitivity for each test were 93.75-99.39%, 1.0000; 80.58-88.24%, 0.9286-1.0000; 67.21-92.31%, 0.7091-1.0000; and 59.13-68.85%, 0.6017-0.6585, respectively. The diagnosis models developed in the current study combined gene expression profiling data and artificial intelligence algorithms to create tools for improved diagnosis of CRC.

A scoring system based on artificial neural network for predicting 10-year survival in stage II A colon cancer patients after radical surgery

Nearly 20% patients with stage II A colon cancer will develop recurrent disease post-operatively. The present study aims to develop a scoring system based on Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model for predicting 10-year survival outcome. The clinical and molecular data of 117 stage II A colon cancer patients from Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center were used for training set and test set; poor pathological grading (score 49), reduced expression of TGFBR2 (score 33), over-expression of TGF-β (score 45), MAPK (score 32), pin1 (score 100), β-catenin in tumor tissue (score 50) and reduced expression of TGF-β in normal mucosa (score 22) were selected as the prognostic risk predictors. According to the developed scoring system, the patients were divided into 3 subgroups, which were supposed with higher, moderate and lower risk levels. As a result, for the 3 subgroups, the 10-year overall survival (OS) rates were 16.7%, 62.9% and 100% (P < 0.001); and the 10-year disease free survival (DFS) rates were 16.7%, 61.8% and 98.8% (P < 0.001) respectively. It showed that this scoring system for stage II A colon cancer could help to predict long-term survival and screen out high-risk individuals for more vigorous treatment.

Disease-free survival assessment by artificial neural networks for hepatocellular carcinoma patients after radiofrequency ablation

BACKGROUND/PURPOSE

Radiofrequency ablation (RFA) provides an effective treatment for patients who exhibit early hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) stages or are waiting for liver transplantation. It is important to assess patients after RFA. The goal of this study was to build artificial neural network models with HCC-related variables to predict the 1-year and 2-year disease-free survival (DFS) of HCC patients receiving RFA treatments.

METHODS

This study was a retrospective study that tracked HCC patients who received computer tomography-guided percutaneous RFA between January 2009 and April 2012. The numbers of total patients with 1-year and 2-year DFS were 252 and 179, respectively. A total of 15 HCC clinical variables were collected for the construction of artificial neural network models for DFS prediction. Internal validation and validation conducted using simulated prospective data were performed.

RESULTS

The results showed that the model with 15 inputs showed better performance compared with the models including only significant features. Parameters for performance assessment of 1-year DFS prediction were as follows: accuracy 85.0% (70.0%), sensitivity 75.0% (63.3%), specificity 87.5% (71.8%), and area under the curve 0.84 (0.77) for internal validation (simulated prospective validation). For 2-year DFS prediction, the values of accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, and area under the curve were 67.9% (63.9%), 50.0% (56.3%), 85.7% (70.0%), and 0.75 (0.72), respectively, for internal validation (simulated prospective validation).

CONCLUSION

This study revealed that the proposed artificial neural network models constructed with 15 clinical HCC relevant features could achieve an acceptable prediction performance for DFS. Such models can support clinical physicians to deal with clinical decision-making processes on the prognosis of HCC patients receiving RFA treatments.

The use of artificial neural networks to predict delayed discharge and readmission in enhanced recovery following laparoscopic colorectal cancer surgery

BACKGROUND

Artificial neural networks (ANNs) can be used to develop predictive tools to enable the clinical decision-making process. This study aimed to investigate the use of an ANN in predicting the outcomes from enhanced recovery after colorectal cancer surgery.

METHODS

Data were obtained from consecutive colorectal cancer patients undergoing laparoscopic surgery within the enhanced recovery after surgery (ERAS) program between 2002 and 2009 in a single center. The primary outcomes assessed were delayed discharge and readmission within a 30-day period. The data were analyzed using a multilayered perceptron neural network (MLPNN), and a prediction tools were created for each outcome. The results were compared with a conventional statistical method using logistic regression analysis.

RESULTS

A total of 275 cancer patients were included in the study. The median length of stay was 6 days (range 2-49 days) with 67 patients (24.4 %) staying longer than 7 days. Thirty-four patients (12.5 %) were readmitted within 30 days. Important factors predicting delayed discharge were related to failure in compliance with ERAS, particularly with the postoperative elements in the first 48 h. The MLPNN for delayed discharge had an area under a receiver operator characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.817, compared with an AUROC of 0.807 for the predictive tool developed from logistic regression analysis. Factors predicting 30-day readmission included overall compliance with the ERAS pathway and receiving neoadjuvant treatment for rectal cancer. The MLPNN for readmission had an AUROC of 0.68.

CONCLUSIONS

These results may plausibly suggest that ANN can be used to develop reliable outcome predictive tools in multifactorial intervention such as ERAS. Compliance with ERAS can reliably predict both delayed discharge and 30-day readmission following laparoscopic colorectal cancer surgery.

Pre-operative prediction of surgical morbidity in children: comparison of five statistical models

BACKGROUND

The accurate prediction of surgical risk is important to patients and physicians. Logistic regression (LR) models are typically used to estimate these risks. However, in the fields of data mining and machine-learning, many alternative classification and prediction algorithms have been developed. This study aimed to compare the performance of LR to several data mining algorithms for predicting 30-day surgical morbidity in children.

METHODS

We used the 2012 National Surgical Quality Improvement Program-Pediatric dataset to compare the performance of (1) a LR model that assumed linearity and additivity (simple LR model) (2) a LR model incorporating restricted cubic splines and interactions (flexible LR model) (3) a support vector machine, (4) a random forest and (5) boosted classification trees for predicting surgical morbidity.

RESULTS

The ensemble-based methods showed significantly higher accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, PPV, and NPV than the simple LR model. However, none of the models performed better than the flexible LR model in terms of the aforementioned measures or in model calibration or discrimination.

CONCLUSION

Support vector machines, random forests, and boosted classification trees do not show better performance than LR for predicting pediatric surgical morbidity. After further validation, the flexible LR model derived in this study could be used to assist with clinical decision-making based on patient-specific surgical risks.

Predicting outcomes in patients with perforated gastroduodenal ulcers: artificial neural network modelling indicates a highly complex disease

Purpose

Mortality prediction models for patients with perforated peptic ulcer (PPU) have not yielded consistent or highly accurate results. Given the complex nature of this disease, which has many non-linear associations with outcomes, we explored artificial neural networks (ANNs) to predict the complex interactions between the risk factors of PPU and death among patients with this condition.

Methods

ANN modelling using a standard feed-forward, back-propagation neural network with three layers (i.e., an input layer, a hidden layer and an output layer) was used to predict the 30-day mortality of consecutive patients from a population-based cohort undergoing surgery for PPU. A receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was used to assess model accuracy.

Results

Of the 172 patients, 168 had their data included in the model; the data of 117 (70 %) were used for the training set, and the data of 51 (39 %) were used for the test set. The accuracy, as evaluated by area under the ROC curve (AUC), was best for an inclusive, multifactorial ANN model (AUC 0.90, 95 % CIs 0.85–0.95; p < 0.001). This model outperformed standard predictive scores, including Boey and PULP. The importance of each variable decreased as the number of factors included in the ANN model increased.

Conclusions

The prediction of death was most accurate when using an ANN model with several univariate influences on the outcome. This finding demonstrates that PPU is a highly complex disease for which clinical prognoses are likely difficult. The incorporation of computerised learning systems might enhance clinical judgments to improve decision making and outcome prediction.

Volume-outcome associations after major hepatectomy for hepatocellular carcinoma: a nationwide Taiwan study

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this study was to explore volume-outcome associations after major hepatectomy for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

METHODS

This population-based cohort study retrospectively analyzed 23,107 major hepatectomies for HCC patients from 1998 to 2009. Relationships between hospital/surgeon volume and patient outcome were analyzed by propensity score matching (PSM). Five-year overall survival (OS) was estimated by Kaplan-Meier method, and differences were compared by log-rank test.

RESULTS

The mean length of stay (LOS) after major hepatectomy was 18.1 days, and the mean hospital cost was US$5,088.2. After PSM, the mean OS in high- and low-volume hospitals was 71.1 months (standard deviation (SD) 0.7 months) and 68.6 months (SD 0.6 months), respectively; the mean OS in high- and low-volume surgeons was 78.5 months (SD 0.7 months) and 66.9 months (SD 0.7 months), respectively. The PSM analysis showed that treatment by high-volume hospitals and treatment by high-volume surgeons were both associated with significantly shorter LOS, lower hospital cost, and longer survival compared to their low-volume counterparts (P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The results of this nationwide study support the regionalization of HCC treatment by hospital volume and by surgeon volume. High surgeon volume revealed both short- and long-term benefits. The applicability of PSM in volume-outcome analysis may also be confirmed.

In-hospital mortality prediction in patients receiving mechanical ventilation in Taiwan

BACKGROUND

Few studies have used pooled data for more than 2 years and few have analyzed data for patients receiving mechanical ventilation in Taiwan. Objective To validate the use of an artificial neural network model for predicting in-hospital mortality in patients receiving mechanical ventilation in Taiwan and to compare the predictive accuracy of the artificial neural network model with that of a logistic regression model.

METHODS

Retrospective comparison of 1000 pairs of data sets processed by logistic regression and artificial neural network models based on initial clinical data for 213 945 patients receiving mechanical ventilation. For each pair of artificial neural network and logistic regression models, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curves, Hosmer-Lemeshow statistics, and accuracy rate were calculated and compared by using t tests. Global sensitivity analysis and sensitivity score approach were also used to assess the relative significance of input parameters in the system model and the relative importance of variables.

RESULTS

Compared with the logistic regression model, the artificial neural network model had a better accuracy rate in 96.3% of cases, better Hosmer-Lemeshow statistics in 41.2% of cases, and a better area under the curve in 97.6% of cases. Hospital volume was the most influential (sensitive) variable affecting in-hospital mortality, followed by Charlson comorbidity index, length of stay, and hospital type.

CONCLUSIONS

Compared with the conventional logistic regression model, the artificial neural network model was more accurate in predicting in-hospital mortality and had higher overall performance indices.