Quantitative Prognostic Prediction Using ADV Score for Hepatocellular Carcinoma Following Living Donor Liver Transplantation

Early identification of hepatocellular carcinoma patients at high-risk of recurrence using the ADV score: a multicenter retrospective study

BACKGROUND

Postoperative recurrence is a vital reason for poor 5-year overall survival in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients. The ADV score is considered a parameter that can quantify HCC aggressiveness. This study aimed to identify HCC patients at high-risk of recurrence early using the ADV score.

METHODS

The medical data of consecutive HCC patients undergoing hepatectomy from The First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University (TFAHNJMU) and Nanjing Drum Tower Hospital (NJDTH) were retrospectively reviewed. Based on the status of microvascular invasion and the Edmondson-Steiner grade, HCC patients were divided into three groups: low-risk group (group 1: no risk factor exists), medium-risk group (group 2: one risk factor exists), and high-risk group (group 3: coexistence of two risk factors). In the training cohort (TFAHNJMU), the R package nnet was used to establish a multi-categorical unordered logistic regression model based on the ADV score to predict three risk groups. The Welch's T-test was used to compare differences in clinical variables in three predicted risk groups. NJDTH served as an external validation center. At last, the confusion matrix was developed using the R package caret to evaluate the diagnostic performance of the model.

RESULTS

350 and 405 patients from TFAHNJMU and NJDTH were included. HCC patients in different risk groups had significantly different liver function and inflammation levels. Density maps demonstrated that the ADV score could best differentiate between the three risk groups. The probability curve was plotted according to the predicted results of the multi-categorical unordered logistic regression model, and the best cut-off values of the ADV score were as follows: low-risk ≤ 3.4 log, 3.4 log < medium-risk ≤ 5.7 log, and high-risk > 5.7 log. The sensitivities of the ADV score predicting the high-risk group (group 3) were 70.2% (99/141) and 78.8% (63/80) in the training and external validation cohort, respectively.

CONCLUSION

The ADV score might become a valuable marker for screening patients at high-risk of HCC recurrence with a cut-off value of 5.7 log, which might help surgeons, pathologists, and HCC patients make appropriate clinical decisions.

Research progress of protein induced by vitamin K absence or antagonist II in liver transplantation for hepatocellular carcinoma

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the most common pathologic type of primary liver cancer. Liver transplantation (LT) is a radical strategy for treating patients with early-stage HCC, which may lead to a better prognosis compared to hepatectomy and ablation. However, survival of patients who develop HCC recurrence after LT is short, and early recurrence is the most common cause of death. Thus, efficient biomarkers are also needed in LT to guide precision therapy to improve patient prognosis and 5-year survival. Protein induced by vitamin K absence or antagonist II (PIVKA-II) is an abnormal prothrombin that cannot activate coagulation, and it is significantly increased in patients with HCC, obstructive jaundice, and those taking vitamin K antagonists. Over the past decades, substantial progress has been made in the study of PIVKA-II in diagnosing, surveilling, and treating HCC, but its role in LT still needs to be elaborated. In this review, we focused on the role of PIVKA-II as a biomarker in LT for HCC, especially its relationship with clinicopathologic features, early recurrence, long-term survival, and donor-recipient selection.

Role of protein induced by vitamin-K absence-II in transplanted patients with HCC not producing alpha-fetoprotein

Elevated Protein Induced by Vitamin-K Absence-II (PIVKA-II) has been shown to be an adverse prognostic factor in HCC patients undergoing liver transplantation (LT). No definitive data are available about the impact of PIVKA-II concerning post-LT recurrence in patients not secreting (≤ 20 ng/mL) alpha-fetoprotein (AFP). An observational retrospective study of the East-West HCC-LT consortium is reported. Between 2000 and 2019, 639 HCC patients were enrolled in 5 collaborative European and Japanese centers. To minimize the initial selection bias, an inverse probability therapy weighting method was adopted to analyze the data. In the post-inverse probability therapy weighting population, PIVKA-II (HR = 2.00; 95% CI: 1.52-2.64; p < 0.001) and AFP (HR=1.82; 95% CI: 1.48-2.24; p < 0.001) were the most relevant independent risk factors for post-LT recurrence. A sub-analysis focusing only on patients who are AFP non-secreting confirmed the negative role of PIVKA-II (HR=2.06, 95% CI: 1.26-3.35; p =0.004). When categorizing the entire population into 4 groups according to the AFP levels (≤ or > 20 ng/mL) and PIVKA (≤ or > 300 mUA/mL) at the time of LT, the lowest recurrence rates were observed in the low AFP-PIVKA-II group (5-year recurrence rate = 8.0%). Conversely, the high AFP-PIVKA-II group had the worst outcome (5-year recurrence rate = 35.1%). PIVKA-II secretion is a relevant risk factor for post-LT HCC recurrence. The role of this marker is independent of the AFP status. Combining both tumor markers, especially in the setting of LT, should be of great relevance for adding information about predicting the post-LT risk of tumor recurrence and selecting these patients for transplantation.

Donor sex and donor-recipient sex disparity do not affect hepatocellular carcinoma recurrence after living donor liver transplantation

Purpose

Studies have yielded contradictory results on whether donor sex and donor-recipient sex disparity affect hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) recurrence after living donor liver transplantation (LDLT). The present study assessed whether donor sex or donor-recipient sex disparity affects HCC recurrence after LDLT at a high-volume center.

Methods

This study included 772 HCC patients who underwent LDLT between January 2006 and December 2015 at Asan Medical Center. Patients were divided into 4 groups based on the sex of the donor and recipient: male-to-male (n = 490, 63.5%), male-to-female (n = 75, 9.7%), female-to-male (n = 170, 22.0%), and female-to-female (n = 37, 4.8%).

Results

Disease-free survival (DFS; P = 0.372) and overall survival (OS; P = 0.591) did not differ significantly among the 4 groups. DFS also did not differ significantly between LDLT recipients with male and female donors (P = 0.792) or between male and female recipients (P = 0.084). After patient matching with an α-FP/des-γ-carboxy prothrombin/tumor volume score cutoff of 5logs, donor-recipient sex disparity did not significantly affect DFS (P = 0.598) or OS (P = 0.777). There were also no differences in DFS in matched LDLT recipients with male and female donors (P = 0.312) or between male and female recipients (P = 0.374).

Conclusion

Neither donor sex nor donor-recipient sex disparity significantly affected posttransplant HCC recurrence.

Validation of quantitative prognostic prediction using ADV score for resection of hepatocellular carcinoma: A Korea-Japan collaborative study with 9200 patients

BACKGROUND

A score derived from the concentrations of α-fetoprotein (AFP) and des-γ-carboxy prothrombin (DCP) and tumor volume (TV), called ADV score, has been shown to be prognostic of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) recurrence following hepatic resection (HR) or liver transplantation.

METHODS

This multicenter, multinational validation study included 9200 patients who underwent HR from 2010 to 2017 at 10 Korean and 73 Japanese centers, and were followed up until 2020.

RESULTS

AFP, DCP, and TV showed weak correlations (ρ ≤ .463, r ≤ .189, p < .001). Disease-free survival (DFS), overall survival (OS), and post-recurrence survival rates were dependent on 1.0 log and 2.0 log intervals of ADV scores (p < .001). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis showed that ADV score cutoffs of 5.0 log for DFS and OS yielded the areas under the curve ≥ .577, with both being significantly prognostic of tumor recurrence and patient mortality at 3 years. ADV score cutoffs of ADV 4.0 log and 8.0 log, derived through K-adaptive partitioning method, showed higher prognostic contrasts in DFS and OS. ROC curve analysis showed that an ADV score cutoff of 4.2 log was suggestive of microvascular invasion, with both microvascular invasion and an ADV score cutoff of 4.2 log showing similar DFS rates.

CONCLUSIONS

This international validation study demonstrated that ADV score is an integrated surrogate biomarker for post-resection prognosis of HCC. Prognostic prediction using ADV score can provide reliable information that can assist in planning treatment of patients with different stages of HCC and guide individualized post-resection follow-up based on the relative risk of HCC recurrence.

Quantitative Prediction of Posttransplant Hepatocellular Carcinoma Prognosis Using ADV Score: Validation with Korea-Nationwide Transplantation Registry Database

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study is to validate the prognostic impact of ADV score (α-fetoprotein [AFP]-des-γ-carboxyprothrombin [DCP]-tumor volume [TV] score) for predicting prognosis of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) following liver transplantation (LT).

BACKGROUND

ADV score has been reported as a prognostic surrogate biomarker of HCC following LT and hepatectomy.

METHODS

The study patients were 1599 LT recipients selected from the Korean Organ Transplantation Registry database.

RESULTS

Deceased-donor and living-donor LTs were performed in 143 and 1456 cases, respectively. Weak correlation was present among AFP, DCP, and TV. The viable HCC group showed ADV score-dependent disease-free survival (DFS) and overall patient survival (OS) rates from 1log to 10log (p<0.001). Prognosis of complete pathological response group was comparable to that of ADV score <1log (p≥0.099). ADV score cutoff of 5log (ADV-5log) for DFS and OS was obtained through receiver operating characteristic curve analysis with area under the curve ≥0.705. Both ADV-5log and Milan criteria were independent risk factors for DFS and OS, and their prognostic impacts were comparable to each other. Combination of these two factors resulted in further prognostic stratification, showing hazard ratios for DFS and OS as 2.98 and 2.26 respectively for one risk factor and 7.92 and 8.19 respectively for two risk factors (p<0.001). ABO-incompatible recipients with ADV score ≥8log or two risk factors showed higher recurrence rates.

CONCLUSIONS

This validation study revealed that ADV score is a reliable surrogate biomarker for posttransplant HCC prognosis, which can be used for selecting LT candidates and guiding risk-based posttransplant follow-up surveillance.

The impact of biological features for a better prediction of posttransplant hepatocellular cancer recurrence

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Morphological criteria (i.e., Milan Criteria) have been considered for a long time to be the best tool for selecting patients with hepatocellular cancer (HCC) waiting for liver transplantation (LT). In the last ten years, a refinement of the selection criteria has been observed, with the introduction of biological tumor characteristics enabling to enlarge the number of potential transplant candidates and to select LT candidates with a lower risk of posttransplant recurrence.

RECENT FINDINGS

Several biological tumor aspects have been explored and validated in international cohorts to expand the ability to predict patients at high risk for recurrence. Alpha-fetoprotein, radiological response to locoregional treatments, and other more recently proposed markers have been principally explored. Moreover, more complex statistical approaches (i.e., deep learning) have been advocated to explore the nonlinear intercorrelations between the investigated features.

SUMMARY

The addition of biological aspects to morphology has improved the ability to discriminate among high- and low-risk patients for recurrence. New prognostic algorithms based on the more sophisticated artificial intelligence approach are further improving the capability to select LT candidates with HCC.

Hepatocellular cancer selection systems and liver transplantation: from the tower of babel to an ideal comprehensive score

The Milan criteria (MC) remain the cornerstone for the selection of patients with hepatocellular cancer (HCC) to be listed for liver transplantation (LT). Recently, several expanded criteria have been proposed to increase the transplantability of HCC patients without compromising their (oncologic) outcome. This paper aims to systematically review the different reported HCC-LT selection systems looking thereby at their ability to increase the number of transplantable patients and the overall survival and oncological outcome. A systematic review of the literature covering the period 1993 (date of the first reported HCC-LT selection system)-2021 identified 59 different inclusion criteria of HCC for LT. Among the 59 studies reporting HCC-LT selection systems, 15 (28.3%) were exclusively based on morphological aspects of the tumor; 29 (54.7%) included biologic, seven (13.2%) radiological, and two (3.8%) only included pathological tumor features. Overall, 31% more patients could be transplanted when adhering to the new HCC-LT selection systems. Despite the increased number of LT, 5-year patient and disease-free survival rates were similar between MC-IN and MC-OUT/new HCC-LT-IN criteria. A careful extension of the inclusion criteria should allow many more patients to access a potentially curative LT without compromising their outcome. The development of a widely accepted "comprehensive" HCC-LT Score able to offer a fair chance of justified transplantation to more patients should become a priority within the liver transplant community. Further studies are needed to develop internationally accepted, expanded selection criteria for liver transplantation of HCC patients.

Prediction of Post-resection Prognosis Using the ADV Score for Huge Hepatocellular Carcinomas ≥13 cm

Background/Aims

Multiplication of α-fetoprotein, des-γ-carboxy prothrombin, and tumor volume (ADV score) is a surrogate marker for post-resection prognosis of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). This study aimed to validate the predictive power of the ADV score-based prognostic prediction model for patients with solitary huge HCC.

Methods

Of 3,018 patients, 100 patients who underwent hepatic resection for solitary HCC ≥13 cm between 2008 and 2012 were selected.

Results

The median tumor diameter and tumor volume were 15.0 cm and 886 mL, respectively. Tumor recurrence and overall survival (OS) rates were 70.7% and 66.0% at one year and 84.9% and 34.0% at five years, respectively. Microvascular invasion (MVI) was the only independent risk factor for disease-free survival (DFS) and OS. DFS and OS, stratified by ADV score with 1-log intervals, showed significant prognostic contrasts (P=0.007 and P=0.017, respectively). DFS and OS, stratified by ADV score with a cut-off of 8-log, showed significant prognostic contrasts (P=0.014 and P=0.042, respectively). The combination of MVI and ADV score with a cut-off of 8-log also showed significant prognostic contrasts in DFS (P<0.001) and OS (P=0.001) considering the number of risk factors. Prognostic contrast was enhanced after combining the MVI and ADV score.

Conclusions

The prognostic prediction model with the ADV score could reliably predict the risk of tumor recurrence and long-term patient survival outcomes in patients with solitary huge HCC ≥13 cm. The results of this study suggest that our prognostic prediction models can be used to guide surgical treatment and post-resection follow-up for patients with huge HCCs.