A Nomogram in Predicting Risks of Intrahepatic Cholangiocarcinoma After Partial Hepatectomy for Hepatolithiasis

Establishment and external validation of prognosis prediction nomogram for patients with distant metastatic intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma: based on a large population

BACKGROUND

Most patients with intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) have developed distant metastasis at the time of diagnosis, while there is rear related nomogram to predict the prognosis.

METHODS

Clinical data of patients pathologically diagnosed of ICC with distant metastasis were retrospectively collected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database during 2005 to 2019. Finally, patients diagnosed as ICC in the Second Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University from 2014 to 2019 were collected for external verification. All data were divided into training cohort and validation cohort in a ratio of 7:3. The nomogram was established based on independent prognostic factors using Cox univariate and multivariate analyses. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves (AUC), the calibration curve and the decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to determine the prediction accuracy of the nomogram.

RESULTS

This study finally included 572 ICC with distant metastasis patients, another 32 patients collected by the author's hospital were used as external verification. Results showed that age, surgery, radiotherapy and chemotherapy were independent prognostic factors, and nomogram was established. The AUC of predicting 3, 6, 9-month overall survival were 0.866, 0.841 and 0.786. The ROC curves and calibration curves showed that the nomogram had good predictive accuracy, and DCA showed that the nomogram had good clinical applicability.

CONCLUSIONS

The nomogram has good accuracy in predicting prognosis of DM-ICC patients, which would be of good significance to improve the prognosis of these patients.

Predictive value of HTS grade in patients with intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma undergoing radical resection: a multicenter study from China

BACKGROUND

Intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) is a highly malignant tumor with a poor prognosis. This study aimed to investigate whether Hemoglobin, Albumin, Lymphocytes, and Platelets (HALP) score and Tumor Burden Score (TBS) serves as independent influencing factors following radical resection in patients with ICC. Furthermore, we sought to evaluate the predictive capacity of the combined HALP and TBS grade, referred to as HTS grade, and to develop a prognostic prediction model.

METHODS

Clinical data for ICC patients who underwent radical resection were retrospectively analyzed. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were first used to find influencing factors of prognosis for ICC. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were then used to find the optimal cut-off values for HALP score and TBS and to compare the predictive ability of HALP, TBS, and HTS grade using the area under these curves (AUC). Nomogram prediction models were constructed and validated based on the results of the multivariate analysis.

RESULTS

Among 423 patients, 234 (55.3%) were male and 202 (47.8) were aged ≥ 60 years. The cut-off value of HALP was found to be 37.1 and for TBS to be 6.3. Our univariate results showed that HALP, TBS, and HTS grade were prognostic factors of ICC patients (all P < 0.05), and ROC results showed that HTS had the best predictive value. The Kaplan-Meier curve showed that the prognosis of ICC patients was worse with increasing HTS grade. Additionally, multivariate regression analysis showed that HTS grade, carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA19-9), tumor differentiation, and vascular invasion were independent influencing factors for Overall survival (OS) and that HTS grade, CA19-9, CEA, vascular invasion and lymph node invasion were independent influencing factors for recurrence-free survival (RFS) (all P < 0.05). In the first, second, and third years of the training group, the AUCs for OS were 0.867, 0.902, and 0.881, and the AUCs for RFS were 0.849, 0.841, and 0.899, respectively. In the first, second, and third years of the validation group, the AUCs for OS were 0.727, 0.771, and 0.763, and the AUCs for RFS were 0.733, 0.746, and 0.801, respectively. Through the examination of calibration curves and using decision curve analysis (DCA), nomograms based on HTS grade showed excellent predictive performance.

CONCLUSIONS

Our nomograms based on HTS grade had excellent predictive effects and may thus be able to help clinicians provide individualized clinical decision for ICC patients.

Clinical online nomogram for predicting prognosis in recurrent hepatolithiasis after biliary surgery: A multicenter, retrospective study

BACKGROUND

Methods for predicting the prognosis of patients undergoing surgery for recurrent hepatolithiasis after biliary surgery are currently lacking.

AIM

To establish a nomogram to predict the prognosis of patients with recurrent hepatolithiasis after biliary surgery.

METHODS

In this multicenter, retrospective study, data of consecutive patients in four large medical centers who underwent surgery for recurrent hepatolithiasis after biliary surgery were retrospectively analyzed. We constructed a nomogram to predict the prognosis of recurrent hepatolithiasis in a training cohort of 299 patients, following which we independently tested the nomogram in an external validation cohort of 142 patients. Finally, we used the concordance index (C-index), calibra-tion, area under curve, decision curve analysis, clinical impact curves, and visual fit indices to evaluate the accuracy of the nomogram.

RESULTS

Multiple previous surgeries [2 surgeries: Odds ratio (95% confidence interval), 1.451 (0.719-2.932); 3 surgeries: 4.573 (2.015-10.378); ≥ 4 surgeries: 5.741 (1.347-24.470)], bilateral hepatolithiasis [1.965 (1.039-3.717)], absence of immediate clearance [2.398 (1.304-4.409)], neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio ≥ 2.462 [1.915 (1.099-3.337)], and albumin-to-globulin ratio ≤ 1.5 [1.949 (1.056-3.595)] were found to be independent factors influencing the prognosis. The nomogram constructed on the basis of these variables showed good reliability in the training (C-index: 0.748) and validation (C-index: 0.743) cohorts. Compared with predictions using traditional classification models, those using our nomogram showed better agreement with actual observations in the calibration curve for the probability of endpoints and the receiver operating characteristic curve. Dichloroacetate and clinical impact curves showed a larger net benefit of the nomogram.

CONCLUSION

The nomogram developed in this study demonstrated superior performance and discriminative power compared to the three traditional classifications. It is easy to use, highly accurate, and shows excellent calibration.

Surgical management of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma

INTRODUCTION

Intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) incidence continues to rise worldwide, and overall survival remains poor. Complete surgical resection remains the only opportunity for cure in patients with ICC yet only one-third of patients present with resectable disease.

AREAS COVERED

While the low incidence rate of ICC hinders accrual of patients to large, randomized control trials, larger database and long-term institutional studies provide evidence to guide surgical management of ICC. These studies demonstrate feasibility, safety, and efficacy of aggressive surgical management in appropriately selected patients with ICC. Recent advances in the management of ICC, with a focus on surgical considerations, are reviewed.

EXPERT OPINION

Historically, little progress has been made in the management of ICC with stagnant mortality rates and poor long-term outcomes. However, regionalization of care to centers with experienced multidisciplinary teams, advances in minimally invasive surgical techniques, discovery and development of targeted and immunotherapy agents, and combination locoregional and systemic therapies offer signs of progress in the management of ICC.

Challenges and Opportunities for Treating Intrahepatic Cholangiocarcinoma

Intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) is one of the rarest and most aggressive types of cancer. The symptoms of ICC patients can be vague, leading to late diagnosis and dismal prognosis. In this review, we investigated the treatment options for ICC, as well as ways to overcome challenges in identifying and treating this disease. Imaging remains the gold standard to diagnose ICC. Patients are staged based on the tumor, nodes and metastases (TNM) staging system. Patients eligible for surgical resection should undergo surgery with curative intent with the goal of microscopically disease-free margins (R0 resection) along with lymphadenectomy. Minimal invasive surgery (MIS) and liver transplantation have recently been offered as possible ways to improve disease outcomes. ICC recurrence is relatively common and, thus, most patients will need to be treated with systemic therapy. Several clinical trials have recently investigated the use of neoadjuvant (NT) and adjuvant therapies for ICC. NT may offer an opportunity to downsize larger tumors and provide patients, initially ineligible for surgery, with an opportunity for resection. NT may also treat occult micro-metastatic disease, as well as define tumor biology prior to surgical resection, thereby decreasing the risk for early postoperative recurrence. Adjuvant systemic therapy may improve outcomes of patients with ICC following surgery. Ongoing clinical trials are investigating new targeted therapies that hold the hope of improving long-term outcomes of patients with ICC.