Evaluation of Four Lymph Node Classifications for the Prediction of Survival in Hilar Cholangiocarcinoma

Machine Learning Model to Predict Early Recurrence in Patients with Perihilar Cholangiocarcinoma Planned Treatment with Curative Resection: A Multicenter Study

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Early recurrence is the leading cause of death for patients with perihilar cholangiocarcinoma (pCCA) after surgery. Identifying high-risk patients preoperatively is important. This study aimed to construct a preoperative prediction model for the early recurrence of pCCA patients planned treatment with curative resection.

METHODS

This study ultimately enrolled 400 pCCA patients after curative resection in five hospitals between 2013 and 2019. They were randomly divided into training (n=300) and testing groups (n=100) at a ratio of 3:1. Associated variables were identified via LASSO regression. Four machine learning models were constructed: support vector machine (SVM), random forest (RF), logistic regression, and K-nearest neighbors (KNN). The predictive ability of the models was evaluated via receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, precision-recall curve (PRC) curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA). KaplanMeier survival curves were drawn for the high/low-risk population.

RESULTS

Five factors, CA19-9, tumor size, total bilirubin, hepatic artery invasion, and portal vein invasion, were selected by LASSO regression. In both the training and testing groups, the ROC curve (AUC: 0.983 vs 0.952) and the PRC (0.981 vs 0.939) showed that RF was the best. The cutoff value for distinguishing high- and low-risk patients was 0.51. KM survival curves revealed that in both groups, there was a significant difference in RFS between high- and low-risk patients (P<0.001).

CONCLUSION

This study used preoperative variables from a large, multicenter database to construct a machine learning model that could effectively predict the early recurrence of pCCA patients planned treatment with curative resection and help clinicians make better treatment decisions.

Development and validation of a novel preoperative clinical model for predicting lymph node metastasis in perihilar cholangiocarcinoma

BACKGROUD

We aimed to develop a novel preoperative nomogram to predict lymph node metastasis (LNM) in perihilar cholangiocarcinoma (pCCA) patients.

METHODS

160 pCCA patients were enrolled at Lihuili Hospital from July 2006 to May 2022. A novel nomogram model was established to predict LNM in pCCA patients based on the independent predictive factors selected by the multivariate logistic regression model. The precision of the nomogram model was evaluated through internal and external validation with calibration curve statistics and the concordance index (C-index). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to evaluate and determine the clinical utility of the nomogram.

RESULTS

Multivariate logistic regression demonstrated that age (OR = 0.963, 95% CI: 0.930-0.996, P = 0.030), CA19-9 level (> 559.8 U/mL vs. ≤559.8 U/mL: OR = 3.162, 95% CI: 1.519-6.582, P = 0.002) and tumour diameter (OR = 1.388, 95% CI: 1.083-1.778, P = 0.010) were independent predictive factors of LNM in pCCA patients. The C-index was 0.763 (95% CI: 0.667-0.860) and 0.677 (95% CI: 0.580-0.773) in training cohort and validation cohort, respectively. ROC curve analysis indicated the comparative stability and adequate discriminative ability of nomogram. The sensitivity and specificity were 0.820 and 0.652 in training cohort and 0.704 and 0.649 in validation cohort, respectively. DCA revealed that the nomogram model could augment net benefits in the prediction of LNM in pCCA patients.

CONCLUSIONS

The novel prediction model is useful for predicting LNM in pCCA patients and showed adequate discriminative ability and high predictive accuracy.

Prognostic value of nodal staging classification and number of examined lymph nodes among patients with ampullary cancer

BACKGROUND

Metastatic disease in the regional lymph nodes (LNs) is a strong indicator of worse outcomes among patients after curative-intent resection of ampullary cancer (AC). This study aimed to ascertain the threshold number of examined LNs (ELNs) for AC to compare the prognosis accuracy of various nodal classification schemes relative to long-term prognosis.

METHODS

Patients who underwent pancreatoduodenectomy (PD) for AC (2004-2019) were identified using the National Cancer Database. Locally weighted regression scatter plot smoothing (LOWESS) curves were used to ascertain the optimal cut point for ELNs. The accuracy of the American Joint Committee on Cancer N classification, LN ratio, and log odds transformation (LODDS) ratio to stratify patients relative to survival was examined.

RESULTS

Among 8127 patients with AC, 67% were male with a median age of 67 years (IQR, 59-74). Tumors were most frequently classified as T3 (34.9%), followed by T2 (30.6%); T1 (12.9%) and T4 (17.6%) were less common. LN metastasis was identified in 4606 patients (56.7%). Among patients with nodal disease, 37.0% and 19.7% had N1 and N2 disease, respectively. The LOWESS curves identified an inflection cutoff point in the hazard of survival at 20 ELNs. The survival benefit of 20 ELNs was more pronounced among patients without LN metastasis vs patients with N1 disease (median overall survival [OS]: 54.1 months [IQR, 45.9-62.1] in ≥20 ELNs vs 39.0 months [IQR, 35.8-42.2] in <20 ELNs; P < .001) or N2 disease (median OS: 22.5 months [IQR, 18.9-26.2] in ≥20 ELNs vs 25.4 months [IQR, 23.3-27.6] in <20 ELNs; P < .001). When comparing the 4 different N classification schemes, the LODDS classification scheme yielded the highest predictive ability.

CONCLUSIONS

Evaluation of a minimum of 20 LNs was needed to stratify patients with AC relative to the prognosis and to minimize stage migration. The LODDS nodal classification scheme had the highest prognostic accuracy to differentiate survival among patients after PD for AC.

A meta-analysis of prognostic factors for early recurrence in perihilar cholangiocarcinoma after curative-intent resection

BACKGROUND

Perihilar cholangiocarcinoma (pCCA) is a type of cancer that has a high rate of recurrence after curative-intent surgery, with about half of all recurrences occurring within the first year. The primary aim of this study was to identify prognostic factors (PFs) for early recurrence (ER, within 12 months) after surgery.

METHODS

Systematic searching was conducted from database inception to September 28th, 2022, with duplicate independent review and data extraction. Data on eight predefined PFs were collected, and meta-analysis was performed on PFs for ER, summarized using forest plots.

RESULTS

The study enrolled 11 studies comprising 2877 patients. In the risk-of-bias assessment, seven studies were rated as low risk and four as moderate risk. More than 34.3% (95% confidence interval [CI], 26.1-42.5%) of the patients experienced ER after curative-intent pCCA resection. Of the PFs, vascular invasion (HR, 2.41; 95% CI, 1.47-3.95; OR, 1.60; 95% CI, 1.17-2.18), lymph node metastases (HR, 2.54; 95% CI, 1.92-3.37; OR, 4.26; 95% CI, 2.40-7.57), and R1 resection (HR, 3.27; 95% CI, 1.81-5.92; OR, 2.40; 95% CI, 1.36-4.22) were associated with an increased hazard for ER. The combined OR values also showed that tumor size, poor tumor differentiation, and perineural invasion were linked to an elevated risk of ER, but all of them had apparent heterogeneity.

CONCLUSION

These findings from the review could be used to plan surveillance of ER and guide post-operative individualized management in pCCA. Furthermore, prospective studies are needed to explore more prognostic factors for ER of pCCA.

Development of a model based on the age-adjusted Charlson comorbidity index to predict survival for resected perihilar cholangiocarcinoma

BACKGROUND

Perihilar cholangiocarcinoma (pCCA) has a poor prognosis and urgently needs a better predictive method. The predictive value of the age-adjusted Charlson comorbidity index (ACCI) for the long-term prognosis of patients with multiple malignancies was recently reported. However, pCCA is one of the most surgically difficult gastrointestinal tumors with the poorest prognosis, and the value of the ACCI for the prognosis of pCCA patients after curative resection is unclear.

AIM

To evaluate the prognostic value of the ACCI and to design an online clinical model for pCCA patients.

METHODS

Consecutive pCCA patients after curative resection between 2010 and 2019 were enrolled from a multicenter database. The patients were randomly assigned 3:1 to training and validation cohorts. In the training and validation cohorts, all patients were divided into low-, moderate-, and high-ACCI groups. Kaplan-Meier curves were used to determine the impact of the ACCI on overall survival (OS) for pCCA patients, and multivariate Cox regression analysis was used to determine the independent risk factors affecting OS. An online clinical model based on the ACCI was developed and validated. The concordance index (C-index), calibration curve, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve were used to evaluate the predictive performance and fit of this model.

RESULTS

A total of 325 patients were included. There were 244 patients in the training cohort and 81 patients in the validation cohort. In the training cohort, 116, 91 and 37 patients were classified into the low-, moderate- and high-ACCI groups. The Kaplan-Meier curves showed that patients in the moderate- and high-ACCI groups had worse survival rates than those in the low-ACCI group. Multivariable analysis revealed that moderate and high ACCI scores were independently associated with OS in pCCA patients after curative resection. In addition, an online clinical model was developed that had ideal C-indexes of 0.725 and 0.675 for predicting OS in the training and validation cohorts. The calibration curve and ROC curve indicated that the model had a good fit and prediction performance.

CONCLUSION

A high ACCI score may predict poor long-term survival in pCCA patients after curative resection. High-risk patients screened by the ACCI-based model should be given more clinical attention in terms of the management of comorbidities and postoperative follow-up.

Assessment of the prognostic value of the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio and platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio in perihilar cholangiocarcinoma patients following curative resection: A multicenter study of 333 patients

Background & Aims

Tumor-associated chronic inflammation has been determined to play a crucial role in tumor progression, angiogenesis and immunosuppression. The objective of this study was to assess the prognostic value of the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR) in perihilar cholangiocarcinoma (pCCA) patients following curative resection.

Methods

Consecutive pCCA patients following curative resection at 3 Chinese hospitals between 2014 and 2018 were included. The NLR was defined as the ratio of neutrophil count to lymphocyte count. PLR was defined as the ratio of platelet count to lymphocyte count. The optimal cutoff values of preoperative NLR and PLR were determined according to receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves for the prediction of 1-year overall survival (OS), and all patients were divided into high- and low-risk groups. Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox regression models were used to investigate the relationship between values of NLR and PLR and values of OS and recurrence-free survival (RFS) in pCCA patients. The usefulness of NLR and PLR in predicting OS and RFS was evaluated by time-dependent ROC curves.

Results

A total of 333 patients were included. According to the ROC curve for the prediction of 1-year OS, the optimal cutoff values of preoperative NLR and PLR were 1.68 and 113.1, respectively, and all patients were divided into high- and low-risk groups. The 5-year survival rates in the low-NLR (<1.68) and low-PLR groups (<113.1) were 30.1% and 29.4%, respectively, which were significantly higher than the rates of 14.9% and 3.3% in the high-NLR group (≥1.68) and high-PLR group (≥113.1), respectively. In multivariate analysis, high NLR and high PLR were independently associated with poor OS and RFS for pCCA patients. The time-dependent ROC curve revealed that both NLR and PLR were ideally useful in predicting OS and RFS for pCCA patients.

Conclusions

This study found that both NLR and PLR could be used to effectively predict long-term survival in patients with pCCA who underwent curative resection.

Impact of perioperative blood transfusion on long-term survival in patients with different stages of perihilar cholangiocarcinoma treated with curative resection: A multicentre propensity score matching study

Background & aim

The association of perioperative blood transfusion (PBT) with long-term survival in perihilar cholangiocarcinoma (pCCA) patients after surgical resection with curative intent is controversial and may differ among different stages of the disease. This study aimed to investigate the impact of PBT on long-term survival of patients with different stages of pCCA.

Methods

Consecutive pCCA patients from three hospitals treated with curative resection from 2012 to 2019 were enrolled and divided into the PBT and non-PBT groups. Propensity score matching (PSM) was used to balance differences in baseline characteristics between the PBT and non-PBT groups. Kaplan–Meier curves and log-rank test were used to compare overall survival (OS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS) between patients with all tumor stages, early stage (8th AJCC stage I), and non-early stage (8th AJCC stage II-IV) pCCA in the PBT and non-PBT groups. Cox regression analysis was used to determine the impact of PBT on OS and RFS of these patients.

Results

302 pCCA patients treated with curative resection were enrolled into this study. Before PSM, 68 patients (22 patients in the PBT group) were in the early stage and 234 patients (108 patients in the PBT group) were in the non-early stage. Patients with early stage pCCA in the PBT group had significantly lower OS and RFS rates than those in the non-PBT group. However, there were with no significant differences between the 2 groups with all tumor stages and non-early stage pCCA. After PSM, there were 18 matched pairs of patients with early stage and 72 matched pairs of patients with non-early stage. Similar results were obtained in the pre- and post-PSM cohorts: patients with early stage pCCA in the PBT group showed significantly lower OS and RFS rates than those in the non-PBT group, but there were no significant differences between the 2 groups for patients with all tumor stages and non-early stage pCCA. Cox regression analysis demonstrated that PBT was independently associated with worse OS and RFS for patients with early stage pCCA.

Conclusions

PBT had a negative impact on long-term survival in patients with early stage pCCA after curative resection, but not in patients with non-early stage pCCA.

Influencing factors of biliary fistula after radical resection of hilar cholangiocarcinoma: a prospect cohort

Background

Biliary fistula is a common but serious complication after radical resection of hilar cholangiocarcinoma. We aimed to evaluate the influencing factors of biliary fistula after radical resection, to provide insights to the clinical treatment of hilar cholangiocarcinoma.

Methods

Patients undergoing radical resection of hilar cholangiocarcinoma from January 1, 2015 to March 31, 2022 were selected. Patients’ personnel characteristics and laboratory test results of patients with and without biliary fistula were collected and compared. Logistic regression analyses were conducted to evaluate the associated risk factors of biliary fistula.

Results

160 patients undergoing radical resection of hilar cholangiocarcinoma were included, the incidence of postoperative biliary fistulas was 20.63%. There were significant differences in the age, preoperative cholangitis and number of biliary anastomosis between biliary fistula and no biliary fistula patients (all p < 0.05). There were significant differences in the gamma glutamyl transpeptidase (GGT) on the first day after surgery, Klebsiella pneumoniae between biliary fistula and no biliary fistula patients (all p < 0.05). Logistic regression analysis indicated that age ≥ 65 years (OR  2.035, 95%CI 1.131–3.007), preoperative cholangitis (OR 1.584, 95% CI 1.081–2.361), number of biliary anastomosis ≥ 2(OR 2.866, 95%CI 1.942–3.624), GGT on the first day after surgery ≥ 120 U/L (OR 1.823, 95%CI: 1.274–2.906), preoperative bile culture for Klebsiella pneumoniae (OR 3.181, 95%CI: 2.426–3.992) were the risk factors of postoperative biliary fistulas (all p < 0.05).

Conclusions

There are many independent risk factors for postoperative biliary fistula in patients undergoing radical resection of hilar cholangiocarcinoma. Clinical medical workers should take early interventions and treatment measures for these high-risk patients to reduce the occurrence of postoperative biliary fistula.

Development and Validation of a Prognostic Model to Predict Recurrence-Free Survival After Curative Resection for Perihilar Cholangiocarcinoma: A Multicenter Study

Background

Recurrence is the main cause of death in perihilar cholangiocarcinoma (pCCA) patients after surgery. Identifying patients with a high risk of recurrence is important for decision-making regarding neoadjuvant therapy to improve long-term outcomes.

Aim

The objective of this study was to develop and validate a prognostic model to predict recurrence-free survival (RFS) after curative resection of pCCA.

Methods

Patients following curative resection for pCCA from January 2008 to January 2016 were identified from a multicenter database. Using random assignment, 70% of patients were assigned to the training cohort, and the remaining 30% were assigned to the validation cohort. Independent predictors of RFS after curative resection for pCCA were identified and used to construct a prognostic model. The predictive performance of the model was assessed using calibration curves and the C-index.

Results

A total of 341 patients were included. The median overall survival (OS) was 22 months, and the median RFS was 14 months. Independent predictors associated with RFS included lymph node involvement, macrovascular invasion, microvascular invasion, maximum tumor size, tumor differentiation, and carbohydrate antigen 19-9. The model incorporating these factors to predict 1-year RFS demonstrated better calibration and better performance than the 8th American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging system in both the training and validation cohorts (C-indexes: 0.723 vs. 0.641; 0.743 vs. 0.607).

Conclusions

The prognostic model could identify patients at high risk of recurrence for pCCA to inform patients and surgeons, help guide decision-making for postoperative adjuvant therapy, and improve survival.

Postoperative morbidity adversely impacts oncological prognosis after curative resection for hilar cholangiocarcinoma

BACKGROUND

Postoperative morbidity after curative resection for hilar cholangiocarcinoma (HCCA) is common; however, whether it has an impact on oncological prognosis is unknown.

AIM

To evaluate the influence of postoperative morbidity on tumor recurrence and mortality after curative resection for HCCA.

METHODS

Patients with recently diagnosed HCCA who had undergone curative resection between January 2010 and December 2017 at The First Affiliated Hospital of Army Medical University in China were enrolled. The independent risk factors for morbidity in the 30 d after surgery were investigated, and links between postoperative morbidity and patient characteristics and outcomes were assessed. Postoperative morbidities were divided into five grades based on the Clavien-Dindo classification, and major morbidities were defined as Clavien-Dindo ≥ 3. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were used to evaluate the risk factors for recurrence-free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS).

RESULTS

Postoperative morbidity occurred in 146 out of 239 patients (61.1%). Multivariate logistic regression revealed that cirrhosis, intraoperative blood loss > 500 mL, diabetes mellitus, and obesity were independent risk factors. Postoperative morbidity was associated with decreased OS and RFS (OS: 18.0 mo vs 31.0 mo, respectively, P = 0.003; RFS: 16.0 mo vs 26.0 mo, respectively, P = 0.002). Multivariate Cox regression analysis indicated that postoperative morbidity was independently associated with decreased OS [hazard ratios (HR): 1.557, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.119-2.167, P = 0.009] and RFS (HR: 1.535, 95%CI: 1.117-2.108, P = 0.008). Moreover, major morbidity was independently associated with decreased OS (HR: 2.175; 95%CI: 1.470-3.216, P < 0.001) and RFS (HR: 2.054; 95%CI: 1.400-3.014, P < 0.001) after curative resection for HCCA.

CONCLUSION

Postoperative morbidity (especially major morbidity) may be an independent risk factor for unfavorable prognosis in HCCA patients following curative resection.