A New Risk Scoring System to Predict Malignancy in Gallbladder Polyps: a Single-Center Study

Prediction of neoplastic gallbladder polyps in patients with different age level based on preoperative ultrasound: a multi-center retrospective real-world study

BACKGROUND

The prevalence of neoplastic polyps in gallbladder polyps (GPs) increases sharply with age and is associated with gallbladder carcinoma (GBC). This study aims to predict neoplastic polyps and provide appropriate treatment strategies based on preoperative ultrasound features in patients with different age level.

METHODS

According to the age classification of WHO, 1523 patients with GPs who underwent cholecystectomy from January 2015 to December 2019 at 11 tertiary hospitals in China were divided into young adults group (n=622), middle-aged group (n=665) and elderly group (n=236). Linear scoring models were established based on independent risk variables screened by the Logistic regression model in different age groups. The area under ROC (AUC) to evaluate the predictive ability of linear scoring models, long- and short- diameter of GPs.

RESULTS

Independent risk factors for neoplastic polyps included the number of polyps, polyp size (long diameter), and fundus in the young adults and elderly groups, while the number of polyps, polyp size (long diameter), and polyp size (short diameter) in the middle-aged groups. In different age groups, the AUCs of its linear scoring model were higher than the AUCs of the long- and short- diameter of GPs for differentiating neoplastic and non-neoplastic polyps (all P<0.05), and Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test showed that the prediction accuracy of the linear scoring models was higher than the long- and short- diameter of GPs (all P>0.05).

CONCLUSION

The linear scoring models of the young adults, middle-aged and elderly groups can effectively distinguish neoplastic polyps from non-neoplastic polyps based on preoperative ultrasound features.

Preoperative prediction model for non-neoplastic and benign neoplastic polyps of the gallbladder

BACKGROUND

Gallbladder adenoma represents a precancerous lesion of gallbladder cancer. However, distinguishing it from cholesteryl polyps of the gallbladder before surgery is challenging. Thus, we aimed to comprehensively explore various risk factors contributing to the formation of gallbladder adenoma to facilitate an informed diagnosis and treatment by clinicians.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective analysis of patients who had undergone cholecystectomy at the Affiliated Hospital of Qingdao University between January 2015 and December 2022. Following postoperative pathological examination, patients were categorized into cholesterol polyp and adenoma groups. We analyzed their baseline characteristics, ultrasound imaging variables, and biochemical data using logistic, lasso, and stepwise regression. Subsequently, we constructed a preoperative prediction model based on the independent risk factors.

RESULTS

Regression analysis of 520 gallbladder polyps and 288 gallbladder adenomas in the model group revealed that age, gallbladder wall thickness, polyp size, echogenicity, pedunculation, and adenosine deaminase (ADA) levels were independent predictors of gallbladder adenoma, all with P < 0.05. Using these indicators, we established a regression equation: Logistic (P) = -5.615 + 0.018 ∗ age - 4.64 ∗ gallbladder wall thickness + 1.811 ∗ polyp size + 2.855 ∗ polyp echo + 0.97∗ pedunculation + 0.092 ∗ ADA. The resulting area under the curve (AUC) value was 0.894 (95 % CI: 0.872-0.917, P < 0.01), with a sensitivity of 89.20 %, specificity of 79.40 %, and overall accuracy of 84.41 % for adenoma detection.

CONCLUSION

Age, polyp size, gallbladder wall thickness, polyp echogenicity, pedunculation, and ADA levels emerge as independent risk factors for gallbladder adenoma.