What is the business case for improving care for patients with complex conditions?

Definition of patient complexity in adults: A narrative review

Background

Better identification of complex patients could help to improve their care. However, the definition of patient complexity itself is far from obvious. We conducted a narrative review to identify, describe, and synthesize the definitions of patient complexity used in the last 25 years.

Methods

We searched PubMed for articles published in English between January 1995 and September 2020, defining patient complexity. We extended the search to the references of the included articles. We assessed the domains presented in the definitions, and classified the definitions as based on (1) medical aspects (e.g., number of conditions) or (2) medical and/or non-medical aspects (e.g., socio-economic status). We assessed whether the definition was based on a tool (e.g., index) or conceptual model.

Results

Among 83 articles, there was marked heterogeneity in the patient complexity definitions. Domains contributing to complexity included health, demographics, behavior, socio-economic factors, healthcare system, medical decision-making, and environment. Patient complexity was defined according to medical aspects in 30 (36.1%) articles, and to medical and/or non-medical aspects in 53 (63.9%) articles. A tool was used in 36 (43.4%) articles, and a conceptual model in seven (8.4%) articles.

Conclusion

A consensus concerning the definition of patient complexity was lacking. Most definitions incorporated non-medical factors in the definition, underlining the importance of accounting not only for medical but also for non-medical aspects, as well as for their interrelationship.

Comparative Effectiveness of a Complex Care Program for High-Cost/High-Need Patients: a Retrospective Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

High-cost/high-need (HCHN) adults and the healthcare systems that provide their care may benefit from a new patient-centered model of care involving a dedicated physician and nurse team who coordinate both clinical and social services for a small patient panel.

OBJECTIVE

Evaluate the impact of a Complex Care Program (CCP) on likelihood of patient survival and hospital admission in 180 days following empanelment to the CCP.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study using a quasi-experimental design with CCP patients propensity score matched to a concurrent control group of eligible but unempaneled patients.

SETTING

Kaiser Permanente Mid-Atlantic States (KPMAS) during 2017-2018.

PARTICIPANTS

Nine hundred twenty-nine CCP patients empaneled January 2017-June 2018, 929 matched control patients for the same period.

INTERVENTIONS

The KPMAS CCP is a new program consisting of 8 teams each staffed by a physician and nurse who coordinate care across a continuum of specialty care, tertiary care, and community services for a panel of 200 patients with advanced clinical disease and recent hospitalizations.

MAIN OUTCOMES

Time to death and time to first hospital admission in the 180 days following empanelment or eligibility.

RESULTS

Compared to matched control patients, CCP patients had prolonged time to death (hazard ratio [HR]: 0.577, 95% CI: 0.474, 0.704), and CCP decedents had longer survival (median days 69.5 vs. 53.0, p=0.03). CCP patients had similar time to hospital admission (HR: 1.081, 95% CI: 0.930, 1.258), with similar results when adjusting for competing risk of death (HR: 1.062, 95% CI: 0.914, 1.084).

LIMITATIONS

Non-randomized intervention; single healthcare system; patient eligibility limited to specific conditions.

CONCLUSION

The KPMAS CCP was associated with significantly reduced short-term mortality risk for eligible patients who volunteered to participate in this intervention.

Teaching pursed-lip breathing through music: MELodica Orchestra for DYspnea (MELODY) trial rationale and protocol

BACKGROUND

Patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) commonly experience dyspnea, which may limit activities of daily living. Pursed-lip breathing improves dyspnea for COPD patients; however, access to pursed-lip breathing training is limited.

METHODS

The proposed MELodica Orchestra for DYspnea (MELODY) study will be a single-site pilot study to assess the safety, feasibility, and efficacy of a music-based approach to teach pursed-lip breathing. Patients with COPD and moderate-severe dyspnea are randomized to intervention, education-control, or usual care control groups. Intervention patients meet twice weekly for eight weeks for melodica instruction, group music-making, and COPD education. Safety, feasibility, and efficacy is assessed qualitatively and quantitatively.

RESULTS

This manuscript describes the rationale and methods of the MELODY pilot project.

CONCLUSIONS

If pilot data demonstrate efficacy, then a multi-site randomized control trial will be conducted to evaluate program effectiveness and implementation.

Clinical complexity and hospital admissions in the December holiday period

Background

Christmas and New Year’s holidays are risk factors for hospitalization, but the causes of this “holiday effect” are uncertain. In particular, clinical complexity (CC) has never been assessed in this setting. We therefore sought to determine whether patients admitted to the hospital during the December holiday period had greater CC compared to those admitted during a contiguous non-holiday period.

Methods

This is a prospective, longitudinal study conducted in an academic ward of internal medicine in 2017–2019. Overall, 227 consecutive adult patients were enrolled, including 106 cases (mean age 79.4±12.8 years, 55 females; 15 December-15 January) and 121 controls (mean age 74.3±16.6 years, 56 females; 16 January-16 February). Demographic characteristics, CC, length of stay, and early mortality rate were assessed. Logistic regression analyses for the evaluation of independent correlates of being a holiday case were computed.

Results

Cases displayed greater CC (17.7±5.5 vs 15.2±5.9; p = 0.001), with greater impact of socioeconomic (3.51±1.7 vs 2.9±1.7; p = 0.012) and behavioral (2.36±1.6 vs 1.9±1.8; p = 0.01) CC components. Cases were also significantly frailer according to the Edmonton Frail Scale (8.0±2.8 vs 6.4±3.1; p<0.001), whilst having similar disease burden, as measured by the CIRS comorbidity index. Age (OR 1.02; p = 0.039), low income (OR 1.97, 95% CI 1.10–3.55; p = 0.023), and total CC (OR 1.06; p = 0.014) independently correlated with the cases. Also, cases showed a longer length of stay (median 15.5 vs 11 days; p = 0.0016) and higher in-hospital (12 vs 4 events; p = 0.021) and 30-day (14 vs 6 events; p = 0.035) mortality.

Conclusions

Patients hospitalized during the December holiday period had worse health outcomes, and this could be attributable to the grater CC, especially related to socioeconomic (social deprivation, low income) and behavioral factors (inappropriate diet). The evaluation of all CC components could potentially represent a useful tool for a more rational resource allocation over this time of the year.

Patients with complex chronic conditions: Health care use and clinical events associated with access to a patient portal

Background

For patients with diabetes, many with multiple complex chronic conditions, using a patient portal can support self-management and coordination of health care services, and may impact the frequency of in-person health care visits.

Objective

To examine the impact of portal access on the number of outpatient visits, emergency visits, and preventable hospitalizations.

Design

Observational study comparing patients’ visit rates with and without portal access, using marginal structural modeling with inverse probability weighting estimates to account for potential bias due to confounding and attrition.

Setting

Large integrated delivery system which implemented a patient portal (2006–2007).

Patients

We examined 165,447 patients with diabetes defined using clinical registries. Our study included both patients with diabetes-only and patients with multiple complex chronic conditions (diabetes plus asthma, congestive artery disease, congestive heart failure, or hypertension).

Measurements

We examined rates of outpatient office visits, emergency room visits, and preventable hospitalizations (for ambulatory care sensitive conditions).

Results

Access to a patient portal was associated with significantly higher rates of outpatient office visits, in both patients with diabetes only and in patients with multiple complex conditions (p<0.05). In patients with multiple complex chronic conditions, portal use was also associated with significantly fewer emergency room visits (3.9 fewer per 1,000 patients per month, p<0.05) and preventable hospital stays (0.8 fewer per 1,000 patients per month, p<0.05). In patients with only diabetes, the results were directionally consistent but not statistically significantly associated with emergency room visits and preventable hospital stays.

Limitations

Observational study in an integrated delivery system.

Conclusion

Access to a patient portal can increase engagement in outpatient visits, potentially addressing unmet clinical needs, and reduce downstream health events that lead to emergency and hospital care, particularly among patients with multiple complex conditions.

Perspectives: answering questions about quality improvement: suggestions for investigators

'Does it work?' is not the only question that practical improvers have of those investigating of quality improvements. They also want to know, 'Will it work here? What conditions do we need to implement and sustain it? Can we adapt it? How much will it cost and save? Is there enough evidence to spread it?'This perspectives article describes methods that investigators can use to answer these questions about improvement changes and improvement methods. It suggests that one reason why research is underused by improvers is because there is little research that answers these questions that would enable improvers to decide whether or how to implement an improvement in their local setting. It shows improvers that answers are possible and where improvers might find research and reports which answer these questions. It is based on reviews of research and reports about methods for producing valid and actionable knowledge to answer these questions. It describes a new 'quality improvement investigation movement' which is uniting applied researchers and improvers to use innovative methods to answer these questions. These investigators recognize the strengths of the randomized controlled trail method, and how easy it is to draw the wrong conclusions from data generated using lower cost and more timely methods. It emphasizes how investigators can choose a method suited to each question, describe the limitations of the method and communicate to improvers the degree of certainty of their answers to the questions.

The Economic Impact of Intensive Care Management for High-Cost Medically Complex Patients: An Evaluation of New Mexico's Care One Program

High-cost, medically complex patients have been a challenging population to manage in the US health care system, in terms of both improving health outcomes and containing costs. This paper evaluated the economic impact of Care One, an intensive care management program (data analysis, evaluation, empanelment, specialist disease management, nurse case management, and social support) designed to target the most expensive 1% of patients in a university health care system. Data were collected for a cohort of high-cost, medically complex patients (N = 753) who received care management and a control group (N = 794) of similarly complex health system users who did not receive access to the program. A pre-post empirical model estimated the Care One program to be associated with a per-patient reduction in billed charges of $92,227 (95% confidence interval [CI]: $83,988 to $100,466). A difference-in-difference model, which utilized the control group, estimated a per-patient reduction in billing charges of $44,504 (95% CI: $29,195 to $59,813). Results suggest that care management for high-cost, medically complex patients in primary care can reduce costs compared to a control group. In addition, significant reversion to the mean is found, providing support for the use of a difference-in-difference estimator when evaluating health programs for high-cost, medically complex patients.

Multi-Morbidity in Hospitalised Older Patients: Who Are the Complex Elderly?

Background

No formal definition for the “complex elderly” exists; moreover, these older patients with high levels of multi-morbidity are not readily identified as such at point of hospitalisation, thus missing a valuable opportunity to manage the older patient appropriately within the hospital setting.

Objectives

To empirically identify the complex elderly patient based on degree of multi-morbidity.

Design

Retrospective observational study using administrative data.

Setting

English hospitals during the financial year 2012–13.

Subjects

All admitted patients aged 65 years and over.

Methods

By using exploratory analysis (correspondence analysis) we identify multi-morbidity groups based on 20 target conditions whose hospital prevalence was ≥ 1%.

Results

We examined a total of 2788900 hospital admissions. Multi-morbidity was highly prevalent, 62.8% had 2 or more of the targeted conditions while 4.7% had six or more. Multi-morbidity increased with age from 56% (65-69yr age-groups) up to 67% (80-84yr age-group). The average multi-morbidity was 3.2±1.2 (SD). Correspondence analysis revealed 3 distinct groups of older patients. Group 1 (multi-morbidity ≤2), associated with cancer and/or metastasis; Group 2 (multi-morbidity of 3, 4 or 5), associated with chronic pulmonary disease, lung disease, rheumatism and osteoporosis; finally Group 3 with the highest level of multi-morbidity (≥6) and associated with heart failure, cerebrovascular accident, diabetes, hypertension and myocardial infarction.

Conclusions

By using widely available hospital administrative data, we propose patients in Groups 2 and 3 to be identified as the complex elderly. Identification of multi-morbidity patterns can help to predict the needs of the older patient and improve resource provision.

The Impact of a Telephone-Based Chronic Disease Management Program on Medical Expenditures

The impact of a payer-provided telephone-based chronic disease management program on medical expenditures was evaluated using claims data from 126,245 members in employer self-ensured health plans (16,224 with a chronic disease in a group enrolled in the self-management program, 13,509 with a chronic disease in a group not participating in the program). A random effects regression model controlling for retrospective risk, age, sex, and diagnosis with a chronic disease was used to determine the impact of program participation on market-adjusted health care expenditures. Further confirmation of results was obtained by an ordinary least squares model comparing market- and risk-adjusted costs to the length of participation in the program. Participation in the program is associated with an average annual savings of $1157.91 per enrolled member in health care expenditures. Savings increase with the length of participation in the program. The results support the use of telephone-based patient self-management of chronic disease as a cost-effective means to reduce health care expenditures in the working-age population. (Population Health Management 2016;19:156–162)

The Nursing Leadership Institute program evaluation: a critique

A theory-driven program evaluation was conducted for a nursing leadership program, as a collaborative project between university faculty, the nurses’ union, the provincial Ministry of Health, and its chief nursing officers. A collaborative logic model process was used to engage stakeholders, and mixed methods approaches were used to answer evaluation questions. Despite demonstrated, successful outcomes, the leadership program was not supported with continued funding. This paper examines what happened during the evaluation process: What factors failed to sustain this program?

Depression and risk of hospitalizations for ambulatory care-sensitive conditions in patients with diabetes

BACKGROUND

Hospitalizations for ambulatory care-sensitive conditions (ACSCs), conditions that should not require inpatient treatment if timely and appropriate ambulatory care is provided, may be an important contributor to rising healthcare costs and public health burden.

OBJECTIVE

To examine if probable major depression is independently associated with hospitalization for an ACSC in patients with diabetes.

DESIGN

Secondary analysis of data from a prospective cohort study.

PARTICIPANTS

Population-based cohort of 4,128 patients with diabetes ≥ 18 years old seen in primary care, who were enrolled between 2000 and 2002 and followed for 5 years (through 2007).

MAIN MEASURES

Depressive symptoms were assessed with the Patient Health Questionnaire-9. Outcomes of interest included time to initial hospitalization for an ACSC and total number of ACSC-related hospitalizations. We used Cox proportional hazards regression models to ascertain an association between probable major depression and time to ACSC-related hospitalization, as well as Poisson regression for models examining probable major depression and number of ACSC-related hospitalizations.

KEY RESULTS

Patients' mean age at study enrollment was 63.4 years (Standard Deviation: 13.4 years). Over the 5-year follow-up period, 981 patients in the study were hospitalized a total of 1,721 times for an ACSC, comprising 45.1 % of all hospitalizations. After adjusting for baseline demographic, clinical and health-risk behavioral factors, probable major depression was associated with initial ACSC-related hospitalization (Hazard Ratio: 1.41, 95 % Confidence Interval [95 % CI]: 1.15, 1.72) and number of ACSC-related hospitalizations (Relative Risk: 1.37, 95 % CI: 1.12, 1.68).

CONCLUSIONS

Probable major depression in patients with diabetes is independently associated with hospitalization for an ACSC. Additional research is warranted to ascertain if effective interventions for depression in patients with diabetes could reduce the risk of hospitalizations for ACSCs and their associated adverse outcomes.

Greater adherence to diabetes drugs is linked to less hospital use and could save nearly $5 billion annually

Improving adherence to medication offers the possibility of both reducing costs and improving care for patients with chronic illness. We examined a national sample of diabetes patients from 2005 to 2008 and found that improved adherence to diabetes medications was associated with 13 percent lower odds of subsequent hospitalizations or emergency department visits. Similarly, losing adherence was associated with 15 percent higher odds of these outcomes. Based on these and other effects, we project that improved adherence to diabetes medication could avert 699,000 emergency department visits and 341,000 hospitalizations annually, for a saving of $4.7 billion. Eliminating the loss of adherence (which occurred in one out of every four patients in our sample) would lead to another $3.6 billion in savings, for a combined potential savings of $8.3 billion. These benefits were particularly pronounced among poor and minority patients. Our analysis suggests that improved adherence among patients with diabetes should be a key goal for the health care system and policy makers. Strategies might include reducing copayments for certain medications or providing feedback about adherence to patients and providers through electronic health records.

Does long-term care use within primary health care reduce hospital use among older people in Norway? A national five-year population-based observational study

Background

Population ageing may threaten the sustainability of future health care systems. Strengthening primary health care, including long-term care, is one of several measures being taken to handle future health care needs and budgets. There is limited and inconsistent evidence on the effect of long-term care on hospital use. We explored the relationship between the total use of long-term care within public primary health care in Norway and the use of hospital beds when adjusting for various effect modifiers and confounders.

Methods

This national population-based observational study consists of all Norwegians (59% women) older than 66 years (N = 605676) (13.2% of total population) in 2002-2006. The unit of analysis was defined by municipality, age and sex. The association between total number of recipients of long-term care per 1000 inhabitants (LTC-rate) and hospital days per 1000 inhabitants (HD-rate) was analysed in a linear regression model. Modifying and confounding effects of socioeconomic, demographic and geographic variables were included in the final model. We defined a difference in hospitalization rates of more than 1000 days per 1000 inhabitants as clinically important.

Results

Thirty-one percent of women and eighteen percent of men were long-term care users. Men had higher HD-rates than women. The crude association between LTC-rate and HD-rate was weakly negative. We identified two effect modifiers (age and sex) and two strong confounders (travel time to hospital and mortality). Age and sex stratification and adjustments for confounders revealed a positive statistically significant but not clinically important relationship between LTC-rates and hospitalization for women aged 67-79 years and all men. For women 80 years and over there was a weak but negative relationship which was neither statistically significant nor clinically important.

Conclusions

We found a weak positive adjusted association between LTC-rates and HD-rates. Opposite to common belief, we found that increased volume of LTC by itself did not reduce pressure on hospitals. There still is a need to study integrated care models for the elderly in the Norwegian setting and to explore further why municipalities far away from hospital achieve lower use of hospital beds.

Applying diagnosis and pharmacy-based risk models to predict pharmacy use in Aragon, Spain: the impact of a local calibration

Background

In the financing of a national health system, where pharmaceutical spending is one of the main cost containment targets, predicting pharmacy costs for individuals and populations is essential for budget planning and care management. Although most efforts have focused on risk adjustment applying diagnostic data, the reliability of this information source has been questioned in the primary care setting. We sought to assess the usefulness of incorporating pharmacy data into claims-based predictive models (PMs). Developed primarily for the U.S. health care setting, a secondary objective was to evaluate the benefit of a local calibration in order to adapt the PMs to the Spanish health care system.

Methods

The population was drawn from patients within the primary care setting of Aragon, Spain (n = 84,152). Diagnostic, medication and prior cost data were used to develop PMs based on the Johns Hopkins ACG methodology. Model performance was assessed through r-squared statistics and predictive ratios. The capacity to identify future high-cost patients was examined through c-statistic, sensitivity and specificity parameters.

Results

The PMs based on pharmacy data had a higher capacity to predict future pharmacy expenses and to identify potential high-cost patients than the models based on diagnostic data alone and a capacity almost as high as that of the combined diagnosis-pharmacy-based PM. PMs provided considerably better predictions when calibrated to Spanish data.

Conclusion

Understandably, pharmacy spending is more predictable using pharmacy-based risk markers compared with diagnosis-based risk markers. Pharmacy-based PMs can assist plan administrators and medical directors in planning the health budget and identifying high-cost-risk patients amenable to care management programs.

Multiple Health Problems in Elderly People: Adapting what is known

With ever increasing pressure on doctors’ time, Iona Heath (doi: 10.1136/bmj.39532.671319.94) wonders whether primary care really meets the needs of elderly people at all, while John Wasson suggests ways for doctors to improve the care of older patients that don’t require extra resources or staffing