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Sugiyama M, Fujimori S, Wada K, Oshiro K, Kato E, Komiyama R, Silva Herran D, Matsuo Y, Shiraki H, Ju Y. EMF 35 JMIP study for Japan's long-term climate and energy policy: scenario designs and key findings. SUSTAINABILITY SCIENCE 2021; 16:355-374. [PMID: 33613778 PMCID: PMC7887567 DOI: 10.1007/s11625-021-00913-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/24/2020] [Accepted: 01/19/2021] [Indexed: 06/12/2023]
Abstract
UNLABELLED In June, 2019, Japan submitted its mid-century strategy to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and pledged 80% emissions cuts by 2050. The strategy has not gone through a systematic analysis, however. The present study, Stanford Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) 35 Japan Model Intercomparison project (JMIP), employs five energy-economic and integrated assessment models to evaluate the nationally determined contribution and mid-century strategy of Japan. EMF 35 JMIP conducts a suite of sensitivity analyses on dimensions including emissions constraints, technology availability, and demand projections. The results confirm that Japan needs to deploy all of its mitigation strategies at a substantial scale, including energy efficiency, electricity decarbonization, and end-use electrification. Moreover, they suggest that with the absence of structural changes in the economy, heavy industries will be one of the hardest to decarbonize. Partitioning of the sum of squares based on a two-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) reconfirms that mitigation strategies, such as energy efficiency and electrification, are fairly robust across models and scenarios, but that the cost metrics are uncertain. There is a wide gap of policy strength and breadth between the current policy instruments and those suggested by the models. Japan should strengthen its climate action in all aspects of society and economy to achieve its long-term target. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11625-021-00913-2.
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Affiliation(s)
- Masahiro Sugiyama
- Institute for Future Initiatives, The University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo, 113-0033 Japan
| | - Shinichiro Fujimori
- Graduate School of Engineering, Kyoto University, Kyoto daigaku-katsura, Nishikyo-ku, Kyoto, 615-8530 Japan
- National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8506 Japan
- International Institute for Applied System Analysis (IIASA), Schlossplatz 1, 2361 Laxenburg, Austria
| | - Kenichi Wada
- Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth, 9-2 Kizugawadai, Kizugawa, Kyoto 619-0292 Japan
| | - Ken Oshiro
- Graduate School of Engineering, Kyoto University, Kyoto daigaku-katsura, Nishikyo-ku, Kyoto, 615-8530 Japan
| | - Etsushi Kato
- Institute of Applied Energy, 1-14-2 Nishi-Shimbashi, Minato, Tokyo, 105-0003 Japan
| | - Ryoichi Komiyama
- School of Engineering, The University of Tokyo, Hongo 7-3-1, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo, 113-8656 Japan
| | - Diego Silva Herran
- National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8506 Japan
- Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES), 2108-11 Kamiyamaguchi, Hayama, Kanagawa, 240-0115 Japan
| | - Yuhji Matsuo
- Institute of Energy Economics, Japan, Kachidoki 1-chome, Chuo-ku, Tokyo, 104-0054 Japan
| | - Hiroto Shiraki
- The University of Shiga Prefecture, 2500, Hassaka-cho, Hikone-City, Shiga, 522-8533 Japan
| | - Yiyi Ju
- Institute for Future Initiatives, The University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo, 113-0033 Japan
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