Hip fractures in South Africa: mortality outcomes over 12 months post-fracture

Excess mortality in elderly hip fracture patients: An Indian experience

PURPOSE

Hip fractures in elderly have a high mortality. However, there is limited literature on the excess mortality seen in hip fractures compared to the normal population. The purpose of this study was to compare the mortality of hip fractures with that of age and gender matched Indian population.

METHODS

There are 283 patients with hip fractures aged above 50 years admitted at single centre prospectively enrolled in this study. Patients were followed up for 1 year and the follow-up record was available for 279 patients. Mortality was assessed during the follow-up from chart review and/or by telephonic interview. One-year mortality of Indian population was obtained from public databases. Standardized mortality ratio (SMR) (observed mortality divided by expected mortality) was calculated. Kaplan-Meir analysis was used.

RESULTS

The overall 1-year mortality was 19.0% (53/279). Mortality increased with age (p < 0.001) and the highest mortality was seen in those above 80 years (aged 50 - 59 years: 5.0%, aged 60 - 69 years: 19.7%, aged 70 - 79 years: 15.8%, and aged over 80 years: 33.3%). Expected mortality of Indian population of similar age and gender profile was 3.7%, giving a SMR of 5.5. SMR for different age quintiles were: 3.9 (aged 50 - 59 years), 6.6 (aged 60 - 69 years), 2.2 (aged 70 - 79 years); and 2.0 (aged over 80 years). SMR in males and females were 5.7 and 5.3, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Indian patients sustaining hip fractures were about 5 times more likely to die than the general population. Although mortality rates increased with age, the highest excess mortality was seen in relatively younger patients. Hip fracture mortality was even higher than that of myocardial infarction, breast cancer, and cervical cancer.

Do we understand each other when we develop and implement hip fracture models of care? A systematic review with narrative synthesis

BACKGROUND

A hip fracture in an older person is a devastating injury. It impacts functional mobility, independence and survival. Models of care may provide a means for delivering integrated hip fracture care in less well-resourced settings. The aim of this review was to determine the elements of hip fracture models of care to inform the development of an adaptable model of care for low and middle-income countries (LMICs).

METHODS

Multiple databases were searched for papers reporting a hip fracture model of care for any part of the patient pathway from injury to rehabilitation. Results were limited to publications from 2000. Titles, abstracts and full texts were screened based on eligibility criteria. Papers were evaluated with an equity lens against eight conceptual criteria adapted from an existing description of a model of care.

RESULTS

82 papers were included, half of which were published since 2015. Only two papers were from middle-income countries and only two papers were evaluated as reporting all conceptual criteria from the existing description. The most identified criterion was an evidence-informed intervention and the least identified was the inclusion of patient stakeholders.

CONCLUSION

Interventions described as models of care for hip fracture are unlikely to include previously described conceptual criteria. They are most likely to be orthogeriatric approaches to service delivery, which is a barrier to their implementation in resource-limited settings. In LMICs, the provision of orthogeriatric competencies by other team members is an area for further investigation.

Disparities in the Prevalence of Osteoporosis and Osteopenia in Men and Women Living in Sub-Saharan Africa, the UK, and the USA

PURPOSE

To review the rising prevalence of osteopenia and osteoporosis in sub-Saharan Africa and the challenges this poses to governments and healthcare services. Using existing studies, we compare the prevalence of osteopenia and osteoporosis in men and women from sub-Saharan Africa to US and UK cohorts. Context-specific disparities in healthcare are discussed particularly the challenges in diagnosis and treatment of osteoporosis.

RECENT FINDINGS

There are few epidemiological data describing the burden of osteoporosis in sub-Saharan Africa. In the studies and cohorts presented here, osteoporosis prevalence varies by sex, country and area of residence, but is generally higher in African populations, than has previously been appreciated. Risk factors contributing to poorer bone health include HIV, malnutrition and "inflammaging." Reprioritization towards care of ageing populations is urgently required. Equitable access to implementable preventative strategies, diagnostic services, treatments and pathways of care for bone health (for example embedded within HIV services) need now to be recognized and addressed by policy makers.

Fractures in sub-Saharan Africa: epidemiology, economic impact and ethnography (Fractures-E 3): study protocol

Background: The population of older adults is growing in sub-Saharan Africa. Ageing exponentially increases fragility fracture risk. Of all global regions, Africa is projected to observe the greatest increase in fragility fractures. Fractures cause pain, disability and sometimes death, and management is expensive, often requiring complex healthcare delivery. For countries to plan future healthcare services, understanding is needed of fracture epidemiology, associated health service costs and the currently available healthcare resources. Methods:The Fractures-E 3 5-year mixed-methods research programme will investigate the epidemiology, economic impact, and treatment provision for fracture and wider musculoskeletal health in The Gambia, South Africa and Zimbabwe. These three countries are diverse in their geography, degree of urbanisation, maturity of health service infrastructure, and health profiles. The programme comprises five study types: (i) population-based cross-sectional studies to determine vertebral fracture prevalence. Secondary outcomes will include osteoarthritis and sarcopenia. Age- and sex-stratified household sampling will recruit 5030 adults aged 40 years and older; (ii) prospective cohort studies in adults aged 40 years and older will determine hip fracture incidence, associated risk factors, and outcomes over one year ( e.g. mortality, disability, health-related quality of life); (iii) economic studies of direct health costs of hip fracture with projection modelling of future national health costs and cost-effectiveness analyses of different hip fracture care pathways; (iv) national surveys of hip fracture services (including traditional bonesetters in The Gambia); and (v) ethnographic studies of hip fracture care provision and experiences will understand fracture service pathways. Conclusions:Greater understanding of current and expected fracture burdens, fracture risk factors, and existing fracture care provision, is intended to inform national clinical guidelines, health service policy and planning and future health service development in sub-Saharan Africa.

The Impact of Human Immunodeficiency Virus and Menopause on Bone Mineral Density: A Longitudinal Study of Urban-Dwelling South African Women

An estimated 25% of South African women live with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). Antiretroviral therapy roll-out has improved life expectancy, so many more women now reach menopause. We aimed to quantify changes in bone mineral density (BMD) during the menopausal transition in urban-dwelling South African women with and without HIV and determine whether HIV infection modified the effect of menopause on BMD changes. A 5-year population-based longitudinal study recruited women aged 40-60 years residing in Soweto and collected demographic and clinical data, including HIV status, anthropometry, and BMD, at baseline and at 5-year follow-up. All women were staged as pre-, peri-, or postmenopausal at both time points. Multivariable linear regression assessed relationships and interactions between HIV infection, menopause, and change in BMD. At baseline, 450 women had mean age 49.5 (SD 5.7) years, 65 (14.4%) had HIV, and 140 (31.1%), 119 (26.4%), and 191 (42.4%) were pre-, peri-, and postmenopausal, respectively; 34/205 (13.6%) women ≥50 years had a total hip (TH) or lumbar spine (LS) T-score ≤ -2.5. At follow-up 38 (8.4%), 84 (18.7%), and 328 (72.9%) were pre-, peri-, and postmenopausal. Those with HIV at baseline lost more total body (TB) BMD (mean difference -0.013 [95% confidence interval -0.026, -0.001] g/cm2 , p = 0.040) and gained more weight 1.96 [0.32, 3.60] kg; p = 0.019 than HIV-uninfected women. After adjusting for age, baseline weight, weight change, and follow-up time, the transition from pre- to postmenopause was associated with greater TB BMD losses in women with HIV (-0.092 [-0.042, -0.142] g/cm2 ; p = 0.001) than without HIV (-0.038 [-0.016, -0.060] g/cm2 , p = 0.001; interaction p = 0.034). Similarly, in women who were postmenopausal at both time points, those with HIV lost more TB BMD (-0.070 [-0.031, -0.108], p = 0.001) than women without HIV (-0.036 [-0.015, -0.057], p = 0.001, interaction p = 0.049). Findings were consistent but weaker at the LS and TH. Menopause-related bone loss is greater in women with HIV, suggesting women with HIV may be at greater risk of osteoporotic fractures. HIV services should consider routine bone health assessment in midlife women as part of long-term HIV care delivery. © 2023 The Authors. Journal of Bone and Mineral Research published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Society for Bone and Mineral Research (ASBMR).

The healthcare system costs of hip fracture care in South Africa

Despite rapidly ageing populations, data on healthcare costs associated with hip fracture in Sub-Saharan Africa are limited. We estimated high direct medical costs for managing hip fracture within the public healthcare system in SA. These findings should support policy decisions on budgeting and planning of hip fracture services.

PURPOSE

We estimated direct healthcare costs of hip fracture (HF) management in the South African (SA) public healthcare system.

METHODS

We conducted a micro-costing study to estimate costs per patient treated for HF in five regional public sector hospitals in KwaZulu-Natal (KZN), SA. Two hundred consecutive, consenting patients presenting with a fragility HF were prospectively enrolled. Resources used including staff time, consumables, laboratory investigations, radiographs, operating theatre time, surgical implants, medicines, and inpatient days were collected from presentation to discharge. Counts of resources used were multiplied by unit costs, estimated from the KZN Department of Health hospital fees manual 2019/2020, in local currency (South African Rand, ZAR), and converted to 2020 US$ prices. Generalized linear models estimated total covariate-adjusted costs and cost predictors.

RESULTS

The mean unadjusted cost for HF management was US$6935 (95% CI; US$6401-7620) [ZAR114,179 (95% CI; ZAR105,468-125,335)]. The major cost driver was orthopaedics/surgical ward costs US$5904 (95% CI; 5408-6535), contributing to 85% of total cost. The covariate-adjusted cost for HF management was US$6922 (95% CI; US$6743-7118) [ZAR113,976 (95% CI; ZAR111,031-117,197)]. After covariate adjustment, total costs were higher in patients operated under general anaesthesia [US$7251 (95% CI; US$6506-7901)] compared to surgery under spinal anaesthesia US$6880 (95% CI; US$6685-7092) and no surgery US$7032 (95% CI; US$6454-7651).

CONCLUSION

Healthcare costs following a HF are high relative to the gross domestic product per capita and per capita spending on health in SA. As the population ages, this significant economic burden to the health system will increase.

Clinical profile, risk factors and functional outcomes in women and men presenting with hip fractures in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

Rationale Appropriate screening can prevent osteoporotic hip fractures (HF). There is little data on clinical risk factors (CRFs) from Africa.

MAIN RESULT

Subjects with HF had similar CRFs to high income countries and poor functional outcomes post HF.

SIGNIFICANCE

Screening and treatment algorithms to improve outcomes post HF need to be implemented.

PURPOSE

Limited data exist on clinical risk factors (CRFs) for and functional outcomes following hip fractures (HF) in South Africa (SA).

METHODS

In a prospective observational study conducted in two municipalities in KwaZulu-Natal, a structured questionnaire recorded demographic data, CRFs, self-reported chronic medical conditions and functional status. Parametric and non-parametric tests were used to test for differences and the McNemar test for change over time.

RESULTS

The median age of the 287 subjects was 72 years (IQR 64-80 years) with the majority women (67.2%), who were significantly older than men. Two or more comorbidities were present in 76.3%. Hypertension (71.4%) and diabetes (29.6%) were most common. Eleven (3.8%) reported a previous diagnosis of osteoporosis and four (1.4%) prior treatment for osteoporosis. A history of cancer (15.4% v. 1.2%, p < 0.001), previous diagnosis of osteoporosis (17.9% v. 1.6%, p < 0.001) and treatment for osteoporosis (7.7% v. 0.4%, p < 0.001) was significantly more common in private compared to public sector subjects. African subjects had a higher prevalence of HIV infection compared to Indian (12.5% v. 0%, p < 0.001) while Indian subjects were more likely to report two or more comorbidities (p = 0.003) and hypertension (p = 0.005) compared to African subjects. Common CRFs were a previous fracture (32.4%), prior fall (24.7%), weight below 57 kg (23.3%), smoking (19.2%) and alcohol use of more than 3 units per day (17.8%). Less than 5% reported a history of parental HF or glucocorticosteroid use. Functional status was available for 206 subjects. Of the 163 participants who had surgery, 81% were independent prior to the HF, compared to the significantly lower 6.7% and 56.4% at 30 days and 1 year post fracture, respectively. The proportion with some degree of dependency rose significantly from 19% pre-fracture to 43.6%, 1 year post-fracture. Walking up stairs and transfer from bed to chair were the most commonly affected activities.

CONCLUSION

Clinical risk factors for HF are similar to those published internationally and support the use of current risk assessment models in SA. Targeted management and rehabilitation programs are required to improve functional outcomes post-HF.

Incidence and number of fragility fractures of the hip in South Africa: estimated projections from 2020 to 2050

Sub-Saharan Africa is undergoing rapid population ageing and better understanding of the burden of musculoskeletal conditions is needed. We have estimated a large increase in the burden of hip fractures for South Africa over the coming decades. These findings should support preparation of hip fracture services to meet this demand.

INTRODUCTION

A better understanding of the burden of fragility fractures in sub-Saharan Africa is needed to inform healthcare planning. We aimed to use recent hip fracture incidence data from South Africa (SA) to estimate the future burden of hip fracture for the country over the next three decades.

METHODS

Hip fracture incidence data within the Gauteng, KwaZulu-Natal and Western Cape provinces of SA were obtained from patients aged ≥ 40 years with a radiograph-confirmed hip fracture in one of 94 included hospitals. Age-, sex- and ethnicity-specific incidence rates were generated using the 2011 SA census population for the study areas. Incidence rates were standardised to United Nations (UN) population projections, for the years 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050, and absolute numbers of hip fractures derived.

RESULTS

The 2767 hip fracture patients studied had mean (SD) age 73.7 (12.7) years; 69% were female. Estimated age- and ethnicity-standardised incidence rates (per 100,000 person-years) for the overall SA population in 2020 were 81.2 for females and 43.1 for males. Overall projected incidence rates were discernibly higher by the year 2040 and increased further by the year 2050 (109.0 and 54.1 for females and males, respectively). Estimates of the overall annual number of hip fractures for SA increased from approximately 11,000 in 2020 to approximately 26,400 by 2050.

CONCLUSION

The hip fracture burden for SA is expected to more than double over the next 30 years. Significant investment in fracture prevention services and inpatient fracture care is likely to be needed to meet this demand.

Association of anesthesia and analgesia with long-term mortality after hip fracture surgery: an analysis of the Australian and New Zealand hip fracture registry

Introduction

Hip fractures are a common frailty injury affecting a vulnerable geriatric population. It is debated if anesthetic and analgesic techniques are associated with altered risk for outcomes in hip fracture patients. This study aimed to determine the association of anesthesia and regional analgesia with all cause 12-month mortality and even longer-term mortality after hip fracture surgery in Australia and New Zealand.

Methods

Data from the Australian and New Zealand Hip Fracture Registry collected from 2016 to 2018, with a minimum follow-up of 12 months, were reviewed. Anesthesia type and use of regional nerve blocks were investigated. The primary outcome was all cause 12-month mortality.

Results

12-month mortality was 30.6% (n=5410) in a total of 17,635 patients. There was no difference in 12-month mortality between patients who received spinal or general anesthesia (p=0.238). The administration of a combination of general and spinal anesthesia for surgery to repair the fracture was an independent predictor of higher 12-month mortality (unadjusted complete case HR=1.17 (95% CI 1.04 to 1.31); p<0.001). Nerve blocks performed in both the emergency department (ED) and the operating theater (OT) were associated with reduced long-term mortality (median follow-up 21 months) with an unimputed unadjusted HR=0.86 (95% CI 0.77 to 0.96; p=0.043).

Conclusion

There was no difference in the association of 12-month mortality between general and spinal anesthesia in patients undergoing hip fracture surgery. However, there was an association with a higher risk of 12-month mortality in patients who received both general and spinal anesthesia for the same surgery. Patients who received a regional nerve block in both the ED and the OT had a lower association of 12-month and longer-term mortality risk. The reasons for these findings remain unknown and should be the subject of further research investigation.

Fragility fracture management and FLS models in South Africa and Israel

Osteoporosis is a common disease of the elderly. Many patients at high risk are neither identified nor treated. A Fracture Liaison Service is a coordinated model of care for secondary fracture prevention. Several national quality indicators have been published in each country to improve surgical treatment and osteoporosis medical treatment. Fracture Liaison Services in both countries have been created by local clinicians with different models depending on the medical geographic locations of patients and the local setup. The objective of this review is to describe the national guidelines and the current clinical treatment models for fragility fractures in South Africa and Israel. Successes and barriers to successful implementation have been identified and are summarized.

Access to care for low trauma hip fractures in South Africa

RATIONALE

Early surgery is recommended for hip fractures.

MAIN RESULT

In this study only one-third of subjects with hip fractures were admitted within 24 h of the fracture, and surgery was delayed beyond 48 h in the majority.

SIGNIFICANCE

These findings highlight the need to improve access to care for hip fracture subjects.

PURPOSE

There is limited data on the timing of admission and surgery following a low trauma hip fracture (HF) in South Africa (SA).

METHODS

A prospective, observational study was conducted at public and private hospitals in three provinces, Gauteng (GP), KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) and the Western Cape (WC), in SA to determine time from fracture to admission and from admission to surgery in patients presenting with low trauma HF. Associations with delayed admission and surgery were explored using logistic regression.

RESULTS

The median age of the 1996 subjects was 73 years (IQR 63-81 years), the majority were women (1346, 67%) and 1347 (67%) were admitted to the public hospitals. In one-third of subjects (661, 33%), admission was delayed to beyond 24 h after the fracture. There was a significantly longer time to admission in public compared to private hospitals (21 h [IQR 10.0-48.5] versus 6 h [IQR 3.3-14.1], p < 0.001), in subjects < 65 years, the WC and when admission occurred on a weekday. Surgery was delayed beyond 48 h in the majority (1272, 69%) of subjects and was significantly longer in public compared to private hospitals (130 h [IQR 62.6-212.4] versus 45.4 h [IQR 24.0-75.5], p < 0.001), in KZN, and when admission occurred after hours.

CONCLUSION

The burden of HFs is higher at public hospitals in SA, where there is a significant delay in admission after a fracture and surgery after admission. This highlights the need for a review of HF care pathways, resources and policies.

Development of a prognostic model for 1-year survival after fragile hip fracture in Chinese

Background

No prognostic model for the survival of fragile hip fracture has been developed for Asians. The goal of this study was to develop a simple and practical prognostic model to predict survival within 1 year after fragile hip fracture in Asians.

Methods

A single-center retrospective cohort study was designed. Under a multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression model, we used the preoperative characteristics of patients to predict survival within 1 year after hip fracture. We built a full model and then used the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) method to further shrink the model coefficients and achieved variable screening. Finally, we obtained a LASSO model. The model performance was evaluated with Nagelkerke’s R² and the concordance (c) statistic. We assessed the internal validity with a bootstrapping procedure of 1 000 repetitions.

Results

A total of 735 eligible patients were admitted to our department for hip fracture from January 2015 to December 2020, but 11 (1.5%) patients were lost to follow-up. Among the remaining patients, 68 (9.3%) died within 1 year after hip fracture. We identified 12 candidate predictors from the preoperative characteristics of the patients. The last model contained nine predictors: surgery, age, albumin, sex, serum creatinine, malignancy, hypertension, ability to live independently, and cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases. Among them, surgery, age, and albumin are effective predictors of survival. The discrimination c statistic of the model is 0.814 (95% confidence interval 0.762–0.865); the corrected value through internal validation is 0.795.

Conclusions

This prognostic model can accurately predict a 1-year survival rate for patients with fragile hip fractures. This information can help clinicians develop a reasonable and personalized treatment plan.

Ethnic Differences in Bone Microarchitecture

PURPOSE OF THE REVIEW

The aim of this review is to briefly introduce updates in global fracture epidemiology and then to highlight recent contributions to understanding ethnic differences in bone density, geometry and microarchitecture and consider how these might contribute to differences in fracture risk. The review focuses on studies using peripheral quantitative computed tomography techniques.

RECENT FINDINGS

Recent studies have contributed to our understanding of the differences in fracture incidence both between countries, as well as between ethnic groups living within the same country. In terms of understanding the reasons for ethnic differences in fracture incidence, advanced imaging techniques continue to increase our understanding, though there remain relatively few studies. It is a priority to continue to understand the epidemiology, and changes in the patterns of, fracture, as well as the underlying phenotypic and biological reasons for the ethnic differences which are observed.