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Lehtonen S, Silvestro D, Karger DN, Scotese C, Tuomisto H, Kessler M, Peña C, Wahlberg N, Antonelli A. Environmentally driven extinction and opportunistic origination explain fern diversification patterns. Sci Rep 2017; 7:4831. [PMID: 28684788 PMCID: PMC5500532 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-017-05263-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 47] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/18/2017] [Accepted: 05/25/2017] [Indexed: 01/16/2023] Open
Abstract
Combining palaeontological and neontological data offers a unique opportunity to investigate the relative roles of biotic and abiotic controls of species diversification, and the importance of origination versus extinction in driving evolutionary dynamics. Ferns comprise a major terrestrial plant radiation with an extensive evolutionary history providing a wealth of modern and fossil data for modelling environmental drivers of diversification. Here we develop a novel Bayesian model to simultaneously estimate correlations between diversification dynamics and multiple environmental trajectories. We estimate the impact of different factors on fern diversification over the past 400 million years by analysing a comprehensive dataset of fossil occurrences and complement these findings by analysing a large molecular phylogeny. We show that origination and extinction rates are governed by fundamentally different processes: originations depend on within-group diversity but are largely unaffected by environmental changes, whereas extinctions are strongly affected by external factors such as climate and geology. Our results indicate that the prime driver of fern diversity dynamics is environmentally driven extinction, with origination being an opportunistic response to diminishing ecospace occupancy.
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Affiliation(s)
- Samuli Lehtonen
- Herbarium, Biodiversity Unit, University of Turku, 20014, Turku, Finland.
- Department of Biology, University of Turku, 20014, Turku, Finland.
| | - Daniele Silvestro
- Department of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Gothenburg, Carl Skottsbergs gata 22B, Gothenburg, 413 19, Sweden.
- Gothenburg Global Biodiversity Centre, Box 461, SE-405 30, Gothenburg, Sweden.
- Department of Ecology and Evolution, University of Lausanne, 1015, Lausanne, Switzerland.
- Swiss Institute of Bioinformatics, Quartier Sorge, 1015, Lausanne, Switzerland.
| | - Dirk Nikolaus Karger
- Department of Biology, University of Turku, 20014, Turku, Finland
- Department of Systematic and Evolutionary Botany, University of Zurich, 8008, Zurich, Switzerland
| | | | - Hanna Tuomisto
- Department of Biology, University of Turku, 20014, Turku, Finland
| | - Michael Kessler
- Department of Systematic and Evolutionary Botany, University of Zurich, 8008, Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Carlos Peña
- Department of Biology, University of Turku, 20014, Turku, Finland
| | - Niklas Wahlberg
- Department of Biology, University of Turku, 20014, Turku, Finland
- Department of Biology, Lund University, Lund, Sweden
| | - Alexandre Antonelli
- Department of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Gothenburg, Carl Skottsbergs gata 22B, Gothenburg, 413 19, Sweden
- Gothenburg Global Biodiversity Centre, Box 461, SE-405 30, Gothenburg, Sweden
- Gothenburg Botanical Garden, Carl Skottsbergs gata 22 A, Gothenburg, 413 19, Sweden
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