Nomogram for Predicting 5-Year Diabetes Remission After Roux-en-Y Gastric Bypass Surgery in Chinese Patients with Obesity

Construction and validation of a nomogram for predicting diabetes remission at 3 months after bariatric surgery in patients with obesity combined with type 2 diabetes mellitus

AIM

Bariatric metabolic surgery (BMS) is a proven treatment option for patients with both obesity and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). However, there is a lack of comprehensive reporting on the short-term remission rates of diabetes, and the existing data are inadequate. Hence, this study aimed to investigate the factors that may contribute to diabetes remission (DR) in patients with obesity and T2DM, 3 months after undergoing BMS. Furthermore, our objective was to develop a risk-predicting model using a nomogram.

METHODS

In total, 389 patients with obesity and T2DM, who had complete preoperative information and underwent either laparoscopic sleeve gastrectomy or laparoscopic gastric bypass surgery between January 2014 and May 2023, were screened in the Chinese Obesity and Metabolic Surgery Database. The patients were randomly divided into a training set (n = 272) and a validation set (n = 117) in a 7:3 ratio. Potential factors for DR were analysed through univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses and then modelled using a nomogram. The model's performance was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic curves and the area under the curve (AUC). Calibration plots were used to assess prediction accuracy and decision curve analyses were conducted to evaluate the clinical usefulness of the model.

RESULTS

Glycated haemoglobin, triglycerides, duration of diabetes, insulin requirement and hypercholesterolaemia were identified as independent factors influencing DR. We have incorporated these five indicators into a nomogram, which has shown good efficacy in both the training cohort (AUC = 0.930) and validation cohort (AUC = 0.838). The calibration plots indicated that the model fits well in both the training and the validation cohorts, and decision curve analyses showed that the model had good clinical applicability.

CONCLUSION

The prediction model developed in this study holds predictive value for short-term DR following BMS in patients with obesity and T2DM.

Type 2 diabetes remission after Roux-en-Y gastric bypass: a multicentered experience with long-term follow-up

BACKGROUND

Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (RYGB) is associated with short- and mid-term type 2 diabetes (T2D) remission. Long-term outcomes and predictive parameters associated with remission following RYGB have not been well elucidated.

OBJECTIVE

Determining the overall long-term T2D remission rates following RYGB and identifying predictive variables associated with remission.

SETTING

Multicentered study including patients who underwent RYGB at 3 tertiary referral centers for bariatric surgery.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective cohort study between 2008-2017 to allow a minimum of 5 years of follow-up. We evaluated long-term T2D remission rates and annual T2D clinical and metabolic parameters up to 14 years after surgery. Predictors of remission were assessed using multivariate logistic regression. Patients were divided into 4 groups based on quartiles of total body weight loss percentage (%TBWL) to compare remission rates between groups.

RESULTS

A total of 815 patients were included (68.9% female, age 52.1 ± 11.5 yr; body mass index 45.1 ± 7.7 kg/m2) with a follow-up of 7.3 ± 3.8 years. Remission was demonstrated in 51% of patients. Predictors of remission included pre-operative duration of diabetes, baseline HbA1C, insulin use prior to surgery, number of antidiabetic medications and %TBWL (all P < .01). Remission rates were proportionally associated with %TBWL quartile (Q1, 40.9%; Q2, 52.7%; Q3, 53.1%; Q4, 56.1%) (P = .02).

CONCLUSIONS

Longer duration and higher severity of T2D were negatively associated with remission while higher %TBWL had a positive association. A significant proportion of patients in all quartiles experienced long-term remission after RYGB with a greater likelihood of remission correlated with greater weight loss.