Pugin F, Burgard M, Cherbanyk F, Egger B. Performance of a predictive weight loss model in terms of rapid detection of inadequate weight loss after Roux-en-Y gastric bypass.
Surg Obes Relat Dis 2024;
20:670-676. [PMID:
38461056 DOI:
10.1016/j.soard.2024.01.020]
[Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/12/2023] [Revised: 12/24/2023] [Accepted: 01/28/2024] [Indexed: 03/11/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND
Predictive weight loss models can help patients meet their expectations after bariatric surgery and assist physicians in responding to deviations from the predicted weight. A model published by Seyssel et al. appears to accurately predict postoperative body mass index.
OBJECTIVES
We aimed to demonstrate this model's performance in terms of rapid detection of insufficient weight loss (surgical nonresponse).
SETTING
Cantonal Hospital, Switzerland.
METHODS
We retrospectively analyzed weight and body mass index deviations at 2 years postoperatively, based on values predicted by the model of Seyssel et al. The primary outcome was the timing of detection of surgical nonresponse. The secondary outcome was how patients' weight loss expectations influenced their real weight loss.
RESULTS
Between 2016 and 2019, 190 patients underwent Roux-en-Y gastric bypass. Of these patients, 36 were lost to follow-up and 154 were included in this study. At 24 months, 16 patients had surgical nonresponse, defined as a real weight of +1 standard deviation higher than that predicted. Among these patients, 44% had a weight of ≥+1 standard deviation higher than predicted at 3 months, and 63% at 12 months. The positive and negative predictive values at 12 months were 59% and 95%, respectively. Patients with a lower hypothetically wanted weight (38.5%) exhibited greater weight loss (P < .05).
CONCLUSIONS
The predictive weight loss model of Seyssel et al. enables rapid detection of surgical nonresponse, allowing physicians to react as early as 3 months postsurgery. Patients' overestimation of postoperative weight loss was positively correlated with the actual weight loss achieved.
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