The predictive value of modified risk scores in patients with acute exacerbation of COPD: a retrospective cohort study

Prognostic value of early warning scores in patients presenting to the emergency department with exacerbation of COPD

OBJECTIVE

Acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD) is a condition that frequently presents to the emergency department (ED) and its prognosis is not very well understood. Risk tools that can be used rapidly in the ED are needed to predict the prognosis of these patients.

METHODS

This study comprised a retrospective cohort of AECOPD patients presenting to a single center between 2015 and 2022. The prognostic accuracy of several clinical early warning scoring systems, Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS), National Early Warning Score (NEWS), NEWS‑2, Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome (SIRS) and the quick Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA), were compared. The outcome variable was determined as one-month mortality.

RESULTS

Of the 598 patients, 63 (10.5%) had died within 1 month after presenting to the ED. Patients who died had more often congestive heart failure, altered mental status, and admission to intensive care, and they were older. Although the MEWS, NEWS, NEWS‑2, and qSOFA scores of those who died were higher than those who survived, there was no difference between the SIRS scores of these two groups. The score with the highest positive likelihood ratio for mortality estimation was qSOFA (8.5, 95% confidence interval [CI] 3.7-19.6). The negative likelihood ratios of the scores were similar, the NEWS score had a negative likelihood ratio of 0.4 (95% CI 0.2-0.8) with the highest negative predictive value of 96.0%.

CONCLUSION

In AECOPD patients, most of the early warning scores that are frequently used in the ED were found to have a moderate ability to exclude mortality and a low ability to predict mortality.

The association between blood eosinophils and clinical outcome of acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: A systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVES

Studies have shown an association between eosinophilia and clinical outcomes in acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD). However, contradictory findings exist. Our study aims to systematically evaluate the association between elevated peripheral blood eosinophils and clinical outcome of patients with AECOPD.

METHODS

An electronic search was conducted for relevant studies published from database inception to February 28, 2023, on PubMed, EMBASE, Cochrane Library, and Web of Science. The analysis covered studies on the correlation between EOS AECOPD and mortality, hospital stay duration, readmission and hospitalization rates, and invasive mechanical ventilation. Where applicable, relative risk (RR) and weighted mean difference (WMD) were extracted, pooled, and assessed using meta-analysis. Sensitivity analysis was performed to explore the source of heterogeneity.

RESULTS

Fifteen high-quality studies including 14 cohort studies and one case-control study were included in the meta-analysis. Compared with non-eosinophilic AECOPD patients, those with eosinophilic AECOPD had a lower risk of mortality (RR = 0.65, 95 % confidence interval [CI] 0.54, 0.77, P < 0.001), shorter length of hospital stay (WMD = -1.56, 95%CI -2.16, -0.96, P < 0.001), and higher readmission rate (RR = 1.07, 95%CI 1.01,1.13, P = 0.029). No difference was found concerning the rate of hospitalization and invasive mechanical ventilation between the two groups.

CONCLUSION

Individuals diagnosed with eosinophilic AECOPD had a reduced mortality rate, a truncated period of hospitalization, and an insubstantial increase in the probability of readmission relative to their non-eosinophilic AECOPD counterparts. The level of eosinophils in blood has been shown to serve as a potential predictive biomarker for AECOPD patients.