Defining a postoperative mean arterial pressure threshold in association with acute kidney injury after cardiac surgery: a prospective observational study

The role of serum magnesium in the prediction of acute kidney injury after total aortic arch replacement: A prospective observational study

Background

Considerable morbidity and death are associated with acute kidney damage (AKI) following total aortic arch replacement (TAAR). The relationship between AKI following TAAR and serum magnesium levels remains unknown. The intention of this research was to access the predictive value of serum magnesium levels on admission to the Cardiovascular Surgical Intensive Care Unit (CSICU) for AKI in patients receiving TAAR.

Methods

From May 2018 to January 2020, a prospective, observational study was performed in the Guangdong Provincial People's Hospital CSICU. Patients accepting TAAR admitted to the CSICU were studied. The Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) definition of serum creatinine was used to define AKI, and KDIGO stages two or three were used to characterize severe AKI. Multivariable logistic regression and area under the curve receiver-operator characteristic curve (AUC-ROC) analysis were conducted to assess the predictive capability of the serum magnesium for AKI detection. Finally, the prediction model for AKI was established and internally validated.

Results

Of the 396 enrolled patients, AKI occurred in 315 (79.5%) patients, including 154 (38.8%) patients with severe AKI. Serum magnesium levels were independently related to the postoperative AKI and severe AKI (both, P < 0.001), and AUC-ROCs for predicting AKI and severe AKI were 0.707 and 0.695, respectively. Across increasing quartiles of serum magnesium, the multivariable-adjusted odds ratios (95% confidence intervals) of postoperative AKI were 1.00 (reference), 1.04 (0.50-2.82), 1.20 (0.56-2.56), and 6.19 (2.02-23.91) (P for Trend < 0.001). When serum magnesium was included to a baseline model with established risk factors, AUC-ROC (0.833 vs 0.808, P = 0.050), reclassification (P < 0.001), and discrimination (P = 0.002) were further improved.

Conclusions

Serum magnesium levels on admission are an independent predictor of AKI. In TAAR patients, elevated serum magnesium levels were linked to an increased risk of AKI. In addition, the established risk factor model for AKI can be considerably improved by the addition of serum magnesium in TAAR patients hospitalized in the CSICU.

Prediction of acute kidney injury after cardiac surgery with fibrinogen-to-albumin ratio: a prospective observational study

Background

The occurrence of acute kidney injury (AKI) following cardiac surgery is common and linked to unfavorable consequences while identifying it in its early stages remains a challenge. The aim of this research was to examine whether the fibrinogen-to-albumin ratio (FAR), an innovative inflammation-related risk indicator, has the ability to predict the development of AKI in individuals after cardiac surgery.

Methods

Patients who underwent cardiac surgery from February 2023 to March 2023 and were admitted to the Cardiac Surgery Intensive Care Unit of a tertiary teaching hospital were included in this prospective observational study. AKI was defined according to the KDIGO criteria. To assess the diagnostic value of the FAR in predicting AKI, calculations were performed for the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), continuous net reclassification improvement (NRI), and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI).

Results

Of the 260 enrolled patients, 85 developed AKI with an incidence of 32.7%. Based on the multivariate logistic analyses, FAR at admission [odds ratio (OR), 1.197; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.064-1.347, p = 0.003] was an independent risk factor for AKI. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve indicated that FAR on admission was a significant predictor of AKI [AUC, 0.685, 95% CI: 0.616-0.754]. Although the AUC-ROC of the prediction model was not substantially improved by adding FAR, continuous NRI and IDI were significantly improved.

Conclusions

FAR is independently associated with the occurrence of AKI after cardiac surgery and can significantly improve AKI prediction over the clinical prediction model.

Comparison of various surrogate markers for venous congestion in predicting acute kidney injury following cardiac surgery: A cohort study

BACKGROUND

Venous congestion has been demonstrated to increase the risk of acute kidney injury (AKI) after cardiac surgery. Although many surrogate markers for venous congestion are currently used in clinical settings, there is no consensus on which marker is most effective in predicting AKI.

METHODS

We evaluated various markers of venous congestion, including central venous pressure (CVP), inferior vena cava (IVC) diameter, portal pulsatility fraction (PPF), hepatic vein flow pattern (HVF), intra-renal venous flow pattern (IRVF), and venous excess ultrasound grading score (VExUS) in adult patients undergoing cardiac surgery to compare their ability in predicting AKI.

RESULTS

Among the 230 patients enrolled in our study, 53 (23.0%) developed AKI, and 11 (4.8%) required continuous renal replacement therapy (CRRT). Our multivariate logistic analysis revealed that IRVF, PPF, HVF, and CVP were significantly associated with AKI, with IRVF being the strongest predictor (odds ratio [OR] 2.27; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.38-3.73). However, we did not observe any association between these markers and CRRT.

CONCLUSION

Venous congestion is associated with AKI after cardiac surgery, but not necessarily with CRRT. Among the markers tested, IRVF exhibits the strongest correlation with AKI.

Identification and validation of an explainable prediction model of acute kidney injury with prognostic implications in critically ill children: a prospective multicenter cohort study

Background

Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a common and serious organ dysfunction in critically ill children. Early identification and prediction of AKI are of great significance. However, current AKI criteria are insufficiently sensitive and specific, and AKI heterogeneity limits the clinical value of AKI biomarkers. This study aimed to establish and validate an explainable prediction model based on the machine learning (ML) approach for AKI, and assess its prognostic implications in children admitted to the pediatric intensive care unit (PICU).

Methods

This multicenter prospective study in China was conducted on critically ill children for the derivation and validation of the prediction model. The derivation cohort, consisting of 957 children admitted to four independent PICUs from September 2020 to January 2021, was separated for training and internal validation, and an external data set of 866 children admitted from February 2021 to February 2022 was employed for external validation. AKI was defined based on serum creatinine and urine output using the Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcome (KDIGO) criteria. With 33 medical characteristics easily obtained or evaluated during the first 24 h after PICU admission, 11 ML algorithms were used to construct prediction models. Several evaluation indexes, including the area under the receiver-operating-characteristic curve (AUC), were used to compare the predictive performance. The SHapley Additive exPlanation method was used to rank the feature importance and explain the final model. A probability threshold for the final model was identified for AKI prediction and subgrouping. Clinical outcomes were evaluated in various subgroups determined by a combination of the final model and KDIGO criteria.

Findings

The random forest (RF) model performed best in discriminative ability among the 11 ML models. After reducing features according to feature importance rank, an explainable final RF model was established with 8 features. The final model could accurately predict AKI in both internal (AUC = 0.929) and external (AUC = 0.910) validations, and has been translated into a convenient tool to facilitate its utility in clinical settings. Critically ill children with a probability exceeding or equal to the threshold in the final model had a higher risk of death and multiple organ dysfunctions, regardless of whether they met the KDIGO criteria for AKI.

Interpretation

Our explainable ML model was not only successfully developed to accurately predict AKI but was also highly relevant to adverse outcomes in individual children at an early stage of PICU admission, and it mitigated the concern of the "black-box" issue with an undirect interpretation of the ML technique.

Funding

The National Natural Science Foundation of China, Jiangsu Province Science and Technology Support Program, Key talent of women's and children's health of Jiangsu Province, and Postgraduate Research & Practice Innovation Program of Jiangsu Province.