Stroke Risk in Atrial Fibrillation: Beyond the CHA2DS2-VASc Score

Pharmacokinetics of single-dose rivaroxaban under fed state in obese vs. non-obese subjects: An open-label controlled clinical trial (RIVOBESE-PK)

The evidence of rivaroxaban's pharmacokinetics in obese compared with non-obese populations remains inconclusive. We aimed to compare the pharmacokinetic profile of rivaroxaban between obese and non-obese populations under fed state. Participants who met the study's eligibility criteria were assigned into one of two groups: obese (body mass index ≥35 kg/m2) or non-obese (body mass index 18.5-24.9 kg/m2). A single dose of rivaroxaban 20 mg was orally administered to each participant. Nine blood samples over 48 h, and multiple urine samples over 18 h were collected and analyzed for rivaroxaban concentration using ultra-performance liquid chromatography coupled with tandem mass detector. Pharmacokinetic parameters were determined using WinNonlin software. Thirty-six participants were recruited into the study. No significant changes were observed between obese and non-obese participants in peak plasma concentration, time to reach peak plasma concentration, area under the plasma concentration-time curve over 48 h or to infinity, elimination rate constant, half-life, apparent volume of distribution, apparent clearance, and fraction of drug excreted unchanged in urine over 18 h. Rivaroxaban's exposure was similar between the obese and non-obese subjects, and there were no significant differences in other pharmacokinetic parameters between the two groups. These results suggest that dose adjustment for rivaroxaban is probably unwarranted in the obese population.

Management of cerebral amyloid angiopathy and atrial fibrillation: We are still far from precision medicine

The use of anticoagulation therapy could prove to be controversial when trying to balance ischemic stroke and intracranial bleeding risks in patients with concurrent cerebral amyloid angiopathy (CAA) and atrial fibrillation (AF). In fact, CAA is an age-related cerebral vasculopathy that predisposes patients to intracerebral hemorrhage. Nevertheless, many AF patients require oral systemic dose-adjusted warfarin, direct oral anticoagulants (such as factor Xa inhibitors) or direct thrombin inhibitors to control often associated with cardioembolic stroke risk. The prevalence of both CAA and AF is expected to rise, due to the aging of the population. This clinical dilemma is becoming increasingly common. In patients with coexisting AF and CAA, the risks/benefits profile of anticoagulant therapy must be assessed for each patient individually due to the lack of a clear-cut consensus with regard to its risks in scientific literature. This review aims to provide an overview of the management of patients with concomitant AF and CAA and proposes the implementation of a risk-based decision-making algorithm.

Computed Tomography to Exclude Cardiac Thrombus in Atrial Fibrillation-An 11-Year Experience from an Academic Emergency Department

BACKGROUND

Computed tomography (CT) could be a suitable method for acute exclusion of left atrial appendage thrombus (LAAT) prior to cardioversion of atrial fibrillation (AF) and atrial flutter (AFL) at the emergency department. Our aim was to present our experiences with this modality in recent years.

METHODS

This registry-based observational study was performed at the Department of Emergency Medicine at the Medical University of Vienna, Austria. We studied all consecutive patients with AF and AFL who underwent CT between January 2012 and January 2023 to rule out LAAT before cardioversion to sinus rhythm was attempted. Follow-ups were conducted by telephone and electronic medical records. The main variables of interest were the rate of LAAT and ischemic stroke at follow-up.

RESULTS

A total of 234 patients (143 [61%] men; median age 68 years [IQR 57-76], median CHA2DS2-VASc 2 [IQR 1-4]) were analyzed. Follow-up was completed in 216 (92%) patients after a median of 506 (IQR 159-1391) days. LAAT was detected in eight patients (3%). A total of 163 patients (72%) in whom LAAT was excluded by CT were eventually successfully cardioverted to sinus rhythm. No adverse events occurred during their ED stay. All patients received anticoagulation according to the CHA2DS2-VASc risk stratification, and no patient had suffered an ischemic stroke at follow-up, resulting in an incidence risk of ischemic strokes of 0% (95% CI 0.0-1.2%).

CONCLUSION

LAAT was rare in patients admitted to the ED with AF and AFL who underwent cardiac CT prior to attempted cardioversion. At follow-up, no patient had suffered an ischemic stroke. Prospective studies need to show whether this strategy is suitable for the acute treatment of symptomatic AF in the emergency setting.

A nomogram for predicting left atrial thrombus or spontaneous echo contrast in non-valvular atrial fibrillation patients using hemodynamic parameters from transthoracic echocardiography

Background

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common cardiac arrhythmia and is associated with a high risk of stroke. This study was designed to investigate the relationship between hemodynamic parameters and left atrial thrombus/spontaneous echo contrast (LAT/SEC) in non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) patients and establish a predictive nomogram that integrates hemodynamic parameters with clinical predictors to predict the risk of LAT/SEC.

Methods

From January 2019 to September 2022, a total of 354 consecutive patients with NVAF were enrolled in this cross-sectional study at the First Affiliated Hospital of Guangxi Medical University. To identify the optimal predictive features, we employed least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression. A multivariate logistic regression model was subsequently constructed, and the results were visualized with a nomogram. We evaluated the model's performance using discrimination, calibration, and the concordance index (C-index).

Results

We observed a 38.7% incidence of SEC/TH in NVAF patients. Independent influencing factors of LAT/SEC were identified through LASSO and multivariate logistic regression. Finally, four indicators were included, namely, previous stroke/transient ischaemic attack (OR = 4.25, 95% CI = 1.57-12.23, P = 0.006), left atrial volume index (LAVI) (OR = 1.04, 95% CI = 1.01-1.06, P = 0.001), S/D ratio (OR = 0.27, 95% CI = 0.11-0.59, P = 0.002), and left atrial acceleration factor (OR = 4.95, 95% CI = 2.05-12.79, P = 0.001). The nomogram, which incorporated these four influencing factors, demonstrated excellent predictive ability. The training set had a C-index of 0.878, while the validation set had a C-index of 0.872. Additionally, the calibration curve demonstrated great consistency between the predicted probabilities and the observed outcomes, and the decision curve analysis confirmed the important clinical advantage of the model for patients with NVAF.

Conclusion

Our findings indicate that an enlarged left atrium and abnormal hemodynamic parameters in the left atrial and pulmonary veins are linked to a greater risk of LAT/SEC. Previous stroke/transient ischaemic attack, LAVI, the S/D ratio, and left atrial acceleration factor were independently associated with LAT/SEC in NVAF patients. With the incorporation of these four variables, the developed nomogram effectively predicts the risk of LAT/SEC and outperforms the CHA2DS2-VASc score.

Development and Validation of a New Nomogram Model for Predicting Acute Ischemic Stroke in Elderly Patients with Non-Valvular Atrial Fibrillation: A Single-Center Cross-Sectional Study

Background and Aims

Non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) patients face a 3-5 times greater risk of acute ischemic stroke (AIS) compared to those without NVAF. This study aims to establish a novel clinical prediction model for AIS in elderly patients with NVAF by incorporating relevant biomarker indicators.

Methods

A total of 301 individuals diagnosed with NVAF were selected for this investigation at the Third Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University. Based on the presence of AIS, patients were categorized into two groups: the Stroke Cohort and the Non-Stroke Cohort. Predictor screening was performed using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operation (LASSO) regression algorithm. The binary logistic regression equation was applied to fit the model, followed by internal validation using the bootstrap resampling method (1000 times). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, calibration degree curve plots, and clinical decision curve analysis (DCA) were generated, respectively. Finally, a nomogram was constructed to present the prediction model.

Results

The final results of this study revealed that neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), red cell distribution width (RDW), lipoprotein(a) (Lp(a)), systolic pressure, history of stroke, hyperlipidemia were independent risk factors for AIS in elderly patients with NVAF (P<0.05). And the high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) was an independent protective factor (P<0.05). By incorporating these indicators, a nomogram prediction model for predicting AIS in elderly patients with NVAF was constructed. Comparative analysis between the nomogram predictive model and CHA2DS2-VASc score revealed that the AUC of the nomogram predictive model surpassed that of the CHA2DS2-VASc score (AUC: 0.881vs 0.850).

Conclusion

NLR, RDW, Lp(a), SP, history of stroke, hyperlipidemia, and HDL-C emerge as independent prognostic factors for acute ischemic stroke in elderly patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation. The predictive utility of the nomogram model may potentially surpass that of the CHA2DS2-VASc scoring system.

Low bleeding acceptance is associated with increased death risk in patients with atrial fibrillation on oral anticoagulation

Bleeding is the most feared complication of anticoagulation. We sought to investigate whether the bleeding risk acceptance has a prognostic value during long-term follow-up in the era of direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) among patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). We studied 167 consecutive AF outpatients [aged 68.8 SD 10.6 years; 141 (84.4%) on DOACs]. The bleeding acceptance was assessed based on the Bleeding Ratio defined as the declared maximum number of major bleedings that a patient would be willing to accept to prevent one major stroke. We recorded cerebrovascular ischemic events, major or clinically relevant non-major bleeds (CRNMB), and mortality. A median Bleeding Ratio was 4 (IQR 2-5). During follow-up of 946 patient-years, cerebrovascular ischemic events and/or death were observed in 28 patients (3.3%/ year) and major bleeding or CRNMB in 33 (4.6%/ year). The Bleeding Ratio was lower in patients who experienced cerebrovascular events or death (p = 0.004), but not bleeding. Patients with the Bleeding Ratio 0-3 were more often non-persistent to the OAC therapy, and more likely to have cerebrovascular event or die than those with higher bleeding acceptance (odds ratio 2.55; 0.95% CI 1.08-6.02) which was driven by the impact on mortality. The multiple Cox proportional hazards model showed that lower Bleeding Ratio, higher CHA2DS2-VASc score, and older age predicted cerebrovascular events or death during follow-up. AF patients who are willing to accept fewer serious bleedings to avoid major stroke during anticoagulation are more likely to experience death and/or cerebrovascular ischemic events, but not bleeding, what might be related to non-persistence.

The Relationship of Coronary Thrombus Burden and Anticoagulation and Risk Factors in Atrial Fibrillation (ATRIA) Score in Patients With ST-Segment Elevation Myocardial Infarction

BACKGROUND

The anticoagulation and risk factors in atrial fibrillation (ATRIA) score is associated with adverse cardiovascular events. However, its relationship with coronary thrombus burden is unclear. Therefore, we aimed to investigate the relationship between the ATRIA score and thrombus burden in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) who underwent percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The study was designed as a prospective cross-sectional observational study. Our study included 319 patients who were prospectively admitted with STEMI between January 2021 and April 2022. Patients were divided into 2 groups with low thrombus burden (LTB) (grade <3) and high thrombus burden (HTB) (grade ≥3). ATRIA score was calculated and recorded for all patients. ATRIA scores of both groups were compared.

RESULTS

In our study, 58.9% (n  =  188) of patients in the LTB group and 41% (n  =  131) of patients in the HTB group. The ATRIA risk score (p < .001) was significantly higher in the HTB group. In multivariate logistic regression analysis, ATRIA score, glomerular filtration rate, hypertensıon, abciximab usage, and no-reflow were found to be independent predictors of HTB in STEMI patients undergoing primary PCI. In receiver operating characteristic analysis, ATRIA score >4 had a sensitivity of 66.2% and specificity of 95.2%, and ATRIA score >8 sensitivity of 98% and specificity of 100% predicted HTB.

CONCLUSION

In this study, we found that thrombus burden may be associated with ATRIA risk score in patients presenting with STEMI.

A prediction model for nonpersistence or nonadherence to direct oral anticoagulants in hospitalized patients with atrial fibrillation

BACKGROUND: Medication adherence and persistence is fundamental for drug effectiveness, which is also true for the prevention of strokes in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). Adherence to direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) as first-line agents is often high in the early posthospital period. However, adherence often sharply declines (or eventually leads to nonpersistence) in the post-discharge ambulatory period, rendering stroke prevention ineffective. If patients at high risk of nonpersistence or nonadherence could be identified early, they could be offered early intervention measures to improve adherence and/or persistence. OBJECTIVE: To develop and internally validate a predictive model for medication nonadherence and nonpersistence to DOAC treatment in patients with AF after discharge using health insurance claims data. METHODS: We selected health insurance claims data between 2011 and 2016 from 8,055 patients with AF who were newly treated with rivaroxaban or apixaban after a hospital admission for stroke, transient ischemic attack, or AF. In the post-discharge ambulatory period, medication adherence was derived as the proportion of days covered, calculated from drug dispensation data. A maximum permissible 90-day gap between the end of a prescription and the next dispensation was used to estimate persistence. Candidate predictors were either derived from the index hospital admission or summarized from the previous year (eg, comorbidities or medication adherence to long-term treatments, such as ß-blockers, renin-angiotensin system inhibitors, statins, and thyroid hormones). A regularized logistic regression model was fitted using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator in a split-sample approach (66.7% training data; 33.3% test data) to predict a composite of medication nonadherence/nonpersistence. Discrimination performance was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, the maximum sensitivity/specificity, and the scaled Brier score. A calibration curve fitted by linear regression was used to evaluate model calibration. RESULTS: The average age of the study participants was 79.7 years, 62% were female, and 3,515 patients (44%) were adherent and persistent (median follow-up of 185 days). Medication adherence to previous long-term treatments showed strong predictive properties. The developed model discriminated well (concordance statistic: 0.755), was well calibrated, and showed a scaled Brier score of 0.202 for identification of patients at risk. CONCLUSIONS: The model successfully predicted medication non-adherence/nonpersistence to DOAC treatment after discharge. Such a model could help ensure that targeted interventions are already in place at the time of hospital discharge, potentially preventing strokes and reducing costs. DISCLOSURES: Mr Wirbka is funded by the German Innovation Funds according to § 92a (2) Volume V of the Social Insurance Code (§ 92a Abs. 2, SGBV-Fünftes Buch Sozialgesetzbuch), grant number: 01VSF18019. Dr Haefeli received financial support from Daiichi-Sankyo, app development (https://www.easydoac.de/), and Bayer. He also received personal speaker fees from Bristol Myers-Squibb and Daiichi-Sankyo Online Seminar. Dr Meid is funded by the Physician-Scientist Programme of the Medical Faculty of Heidelberg University.

Association between lipoprotein(a) and thromboembolism in patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation: a cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND

Lipoprotein(a) [Lp(a)] is a recognized risk factor for ischemic stroke (IS); however, its role in thromboembolism in patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) remains controversial. We aimed to assess the association of Lp(a) and IS and systemic embolism (SEE) in NVAF patients.

METHODS

In total, 16,357 patients with NVAF were recruited from the First Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical University from January 1, 2009, to December 31, 2021, and were divided into groups based on Lp(a) quartiles. Logistic regression models analyzed the association between Lp(a), IS, and SEE. The restriction cubic spline was used to assess the potential nonlinear relationship between Lp(a), IS, and SEE. We conducted subgroup analyses and estimated the multiplicative interaction between the stratified variables and Lp(a) to investigate whether the association between Lp(a) and IS and SEE was affected by age, sex, anticoagulants, and CHA₂DS₂-VASc score.

RESULTS

We identified 1319 IS and 133 SEE events. After correcting for CHA₂DS₂-VASc score and other potential confounders, each 1-standard deviation (SD) increase in log-Lp(a) was related to a 23% increased risk of IS (odds ratios [OR], 1.23; 95% confidence intervals [CI], 1.07-1.41). NVAF patients in the highest Lp(a) quartile were 1.23-fold more likely to have IS than those in the lowest quartile (OR, 1.23; 95% CI, 1.04-1.45). A positive linear relationship between Lp(a) and IS risk was observed (P for nonlinear = 0.341). In the fully adjusted model, subjects had a 1.78-fold increased risk of SEE for each 1-SD increase in log-Lp(a) (OR, 2.78; 95% CI, 1.78-4.36). Subjects in the highest Lp(a) quartile had a 2.38-fold elevated risk of SEE (OR, 3.38; 95% CI, 1.85-6.19) compared with the lowest quartile. Furthermore, Lp(a) had a nonlinear relationship with the risk of SEE (P for nonlinear = 0.005).

CONCLUSIONS

Elevated Lp(a) concentration was significantly associated with IS and SEE, suggesting that Lp(a) may be an emerging biomarker that can help clinicians identify patients at high risk of thromboembolism in this population.

Is there a Concordance between CHA2DS2 VASc and HAS-BLED Scores in Middle Eastern Patients with Nonvalvular AF? Analysis of the Jordan Atrial Fibrillation (JoFib) Study

Background:

Nonvalvular Atrial Fibrillation (NVAF) is a common arrhythmia that potentially contributes to stroke and systemic embolization. Anticoagulants may contribute to the risk of bleeding in these patients. Reports of NVAF on Middle Eastern populations are scarce and outdated. This study investigated the concordance between congestive heart failure, hypertension, ≥75 years of age, diabetes mellitus, stroke or transient ischemic attack, vascular disease, 65 to 74 years of age group, sex category (CHA2DS2 VASc), and Hypertension, Abnormal Renal/Liver Function, Stroke, Bleeding History or Predisposition, Labile INR, Elderly, Drugs/Alcohol Concomitantly (HAS-BLED) scores, and the risks of stroke and bleeding in Jordanian NVAF patients.

Methods:

Results were extracted from the Jordan Atrial Fibrillation (JoFib) multicenter registry (NCT03917992). To assess the risk of stroke, a CHA2DS2 VASc score was used. The HAS-BLED score was used to assess the risk of bleeding. Subgroup analysis for males and females was carried out.

Results:

We included 1823 NVAF patients, almost equally distributed among males and females. The overall mean age was 68.2 years. Most patients had a body mass index (BMI) ≥ 25 (71.5%). Almost half of the patients were smokers, 45.5% had diabetes, and 76.3% had hypertension. Paroxysmal AF was the most common subtype (38%), followed by the permanent (28.6%), long-standing (17.3%), and persistent types (16.1%). Females had a significantly higher CHA2DS2 VASc score than males (p=0.012). For the risk of bleeding, 48.9% of patients had a low risk, 31.5% had intermediate risk, and 19.6% had a high risk. A correlation was found between the two scoring systems. Out of the 357 patients who had a high HAS-BLED score, 354 (99.2%) patients also had a high CHA2DS2 VASc score.

Conclusion:

In almost all NVAF patients with a high risk of bleeding (high HAS-BLED score), the use of anticoagulants is highly recommended and strongly indicated according to the CHA2DS2 VASc score stratification. Therefore, strict strategies of well-controlled administration of anticoagulants should always be considered and followed in Middle Eastern patients with NVAF and a high risk of bleeding.

Principal predictors of major adverse limb events in diabetic peripheral artery disease: A narrative review

Background and aims

The increasing prevalence of diabetes mellitus is causing a massive growth of peripheral artery disease incidences, a disabling complication of diabetic atherosclerosis, which leads often to the amputation of the affected limb. Critical limb ischemia is the terminal disease stage, which requires a prompt intervention to relieve pain and save limbs. However, patients undergoing revascularization often suffer from cardiovascular, cerebrovascular and major adverse limb events with poor outcomes. Furthermore, the same procedure performed in apparently similar patients has various outcomes and lack of an outcome predictive support causes a high lower limb arterial revascularization rate with disastrous effects for patients. We collected the main risk factors of major adverse limb events in a more readable and immediate format of the topic, to propose an overview of parameters to manage effectively peripheral artery disease patients and to propose basics of a new predictive tool to prevent from disabling vascular complications of the disease.

Methods

Most recent and updated literature about the prevalence of major adverse limb events in peripheral artery disease was reviewed to identify possible main predictors.

Results

In this article, we summarized major risk factors of limb revascularization failure and disabling vascular complications collecting those parameters principally responsible for major adverse limb events, which provides physio-pathological explanation of their role in peripheral artery disease.

Conclusion

We evaluated and listed a panel of possible predictors of MALE (Major Adverse Limb Event) in order to contribute to the development of a predictive score, based on a summary of the main risk factors reported in scientific articles, which could improve the management of peripheral artery disease by preventing vascular accidents.

A Review of Biomarkers for Ischemic Stroke Evaluation in Patients With Non-valvular Atrial Fibrillation

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most prevalent cardiac arrhythmia worldwide and results in a significantly increased ischemic stroke (IS) risk. IS risk stratification tools are widely being applied to guide anticoagulation treatment decisions and duration in patients with non-valvular AF (NVAF). The CHA₂DS₂-VASc score is largely validated and currently recommended by renowned guidelines. However, this score is heavily dependent on age, sex, and comorbidities, and exhibits only moderate predictive power. Finding effective and validated clinical biomarkers to assist in personalized IS risk evaluation has become one of the promising directions in the prevention and treatment of NVAF. A number of studies in recent years have explored differentially expressed biomarkers in NVAF patients with and without IS, and the potential role of various biomarkers for prediction or early diagnosis of IS in patients with NVAF. In this review, we describe the clinical application and utility of AF characteristics, cardiac imaging and electrocardiogram markers, arterial stiffness and atherosclerosis-related markers, circulating biomarkers, and novel genetic markers in IS diagnosis and management of patients with NVAF. We conclude that at present, there is no consensus understanding of a desirable biomarker for IS risk stratification in NVAF, and enrolling these biomarkers into extant models also remains challenging. Further prospective cohorts and trials are needed to integrate various clinical risk factors and biomarkers to optimize IS prediction in patients with NVAF. However, we believe that the growing insight into molecular mechanisms and in-depth understanding of existing and emerging biomarkers may further improve the IS risk identification and guide anticoagulation therapy in patients with NVAF.

[Atrial Fibrillation and Mortality: Prognostic Factors and Direction of Prevention]

This review focuses on major causes and risk factors for death of patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). The authors analyzed current therapeutic strategies for managing patients with AF with respect of their effects on prediction and mortality. Special attention is paid to the strategy of rhythm control and the clinical significance of catheter ablation in the treatment of patients with AF and heart failure.

Thromboembolic Risk in Atrial Fibrillation Patients With Left Atrial Scar Post-Extensive Ablation: A Single-Center Experience

OBJECTIVES

This study evaluated the association of the post-ablation scar with stroke risk in patients undergoing atrial fibrillation (AF) ablation.

BACKGROUND

Late gadolinium enhancement-cardiac magnetic resonance studies have reported a direct association between pre-ablation left atrial scar and thromboembolic events in patients with AF.

METHODS

Consecutive patients with AF were classified into 2 groups based on the type of ablation performed at the first procedure. Group 1 involved limited ablation (isolation of pulmonary veins, left atrial posterior wall, and superior vena cava); and group 2 involved extensive ablation (limited ablation + ablation of nonpulmonary vein triggers from all sites except left atrial appendage). During the repeat procedure, post-ablation scar (region with bipolar voltage amplitude <0.5 mV) was identified by using 3-dimensional voltage mapping.

RESULTS

A total of 6,297 patients were included: group 1, n = 1,713; group 2, n = 4,584. Group 2 patients were significantly older and had more nonparoxysmal AF. Nineteen (0.3%) thromboembolic events were reported after the first ablation procedure: 9 (1.02%) in group 1 and 10 (0.61%) in group 2 (p = 0.26). At the time of the event, all 19 patients were experiencing arrhythmia. Median time to stroke was 14 (interquartile range: 9 to 20) months in group 1 and 14.5 (interquartile range: 8 to 18) months in group 2. Post-ablation scar data were derived from 2,414 patients undergoing repeat ablation. Mean scar area was detected as 67.1 ± 4.6% in group 2 and 34.9 ± 8.8% in group 1 at the redo procedure (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Differently from the cardiac magnetic resonance-detected pre-ablation scar, scar resulting from extensive ablation was not associated with increased risk of stroke compared with that from the limited ablation.

LDL-C/HDL-C is associated with ischaemic stroke in patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation: a case-control study

BACKGROUND

This study explored the relationships between the low-/high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio (LDL-C/HDL-C) and other clinical indicators and ischaemic stroke (IS) in patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) in Xinjiang. The findings could provide a theoretical and therapeutic basis for NVAF patients.

METHODS

NVAF patients who were admitted to 10 medical centres across Xinjiang were divided into stroke (798 patients) and control (2671 patients) groups according to the occurrence of first acute IS. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis were used to examine the independent risk factors for IS in NVAF patients. Factor analysis and principal component regression analysis were used to analyse the main factors influencing IS. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was used to evaluate the discriminatory ability of LDL-C/HDL-C for predicting the occurrence of IS.

RESULTS

The stroke group had an average age of 71.64 ± 9.96 years and included 305 females (38.22%). The control group had a mean age of 67.30 ± 12.01 years and included 825 females (30.89%). Multivariate logistic regression showed that the risk of IS in the highest LDL-C/HDL-C quartile (≥2.73) was 16.23-fold that of the lowest quartile (< 1.22); IS risk was 2.27-fold higher in obese patients than in normal-weight subjects; IS risk was 3.15-fold higher in smoking patients than in non-smoking patients. The area under the ROC curve of LDL-C/HDL-C was 0.76, the optimal critical value was 2.33, the sensitivity was 63.53%, and the specificity was 76.34%. Principal component regression analysis showed that LDL-C/HDL-C, age, smoking, drinking, LDL-C and hypertension were risk factors for IS in NVAF patients.

CONCLUSIONS

LDL-C/HDL-C > 1.22, smoking, BMI ≥24 kg/m² and CHA₂DS₂-VASc score were independent risk factors for IS in NVAF patients; LDL-C/HDL-C was the main risk factor.

Predicting the Risk of Ischemic Stroke among Patients with Rheumatoid Arthritis Using a Simplified RA-CHADSV Score Based on the CHA2DS2-VASc Score

Background and Objectives: The aim of this retrospective cohort study was to develop a new score (RA-CHADSV) (rheumatoid arthritis - congestive heart failure, hypertension, age ≥75 years, diabetes mellitus, stroke/transient ischemic attack/thromboembolism, and vascular disease), modified from the CHA₂DS₂-VASc score (congestive heart failure, hypertension, age ≥75 years (doubled), diabetes mellitus, stroke/transient ischemic attack (doubled), vascular disease, age 65–74 years, and female), in predicting the risk of ischemic stroke in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients without atrial fibrillation (AF). Materials and Methods: Using the Taiwan’s National Health Insurance Research Database, 592 patients with RA diagnosed between 2000 and 2002 were identified and followed until first occurrence of ischemic stroke or the last available date in the database. Incidence rate ratios (IRR) of ischemic stroke for the CHA₂DS₂-VASc score were calculated using Poisson regression models. A new prediction score RA-CHADSV was developed using multiple logistic regression analysis with bootstrap validation. Results: The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the newly developed RA-CHADSV score and the CHA₂DS₂-VASc score were 0.73 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.64–0.82) and 0.70 (95% CI 0.61–0.79), respectively. The RA-CHADSV score was significantly associated with a higher ischemic stroke incidence in the patients who scored ≥1 (adjusted IRR 7.39, p < 0.001). Conclusions: A simplified RA-CHADSV score, with comparable efficiency as the CHA₂DS₂-VASc score, but easier to use clinically was developed for predicting the risk of ischemic stroke among non-AF RA patients.