Prognostic Factors in Compensated and Decompensated Cirrhosis

Uptake of endoscopic screening for gastroesophageal varices and factors associated with variceal bleeding in patients with chronic hepatitis C infection and compensated cirrhosis, 2005-2016: a national database linkage study

BACKGROUND

Primary measures for preventing morbidity and mortality associated with bleeding gastroesophageal varices in cirrhotic patients include endoscopic screening.

AIM

To identify factors associated with (a) screening and (b) first hospital admission for variceal bleeding among cirrhotic hepatitis C virus (HCV) patients attending specialist care in Scotland.

METHODS

The Scottish Hepatitis C Clinical Database was linked to national hospitalisation and deaths records to identify all chronic HCV patients diagnosed with compensated cirrhosis in 2005-2016 (n = 2741). The adjusted odds of being screened by calendar year period were estimated using logistic regression, and the adjusted hazard ratio (HR) of a first variceal bleed using Cox regression.

RESULTS

About 34% were screened within the period starting 12 months before and ending 12 months after cirrhosis diagnosis. The proportion screened was stable in 2005-2010 at 42%, declining to 37% in 2011-2013 and 26% in 2014-2016. Odds of screening were decreased for age-groups <40 (OR = 0.61, 95% CI: 0.48-0.77) and 60+ years (OR = 0.67, 95% CI: 0.48-0.94), history of antiviral therapy (OR = 0.70, 95% CI: 0.55-0.89), and cirrhosis diagnosis in 2014-2015, compared with 2008-2010 (OR = 0.67, 95% CI: 0.52-0.86). Compared with 2008-2010, there was no evidence for an increased/decreased relative risk of a first variceal bleed in any other period, but viral clearance was associated with a lower risk (HR = 0.56, 95% CI: 0.32-0.97).

CONCLUSIONS

Overall screening uptake following cirrhosis diagnosis was low, and the decline in recent years is of concern. The stable bleeding risk over time may be attributable both to ongoing prevention initiatives and to changing diagnostic procedures creating a patient pool with milder disease in more recent years.

Relationship between indocyanine green retention test, decompensation and survival in patients with Child-Pugh A cirrhosis and portal hypertension

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Indocyanine green retention test (ICG-r15) is a non-invasive marker of functional hepatic reserve. Among patients with compensated cirrhosis, ICG-r15 correlates to the degree of portal hypertension (PH); however, its prognostic relationship with the occurrence of decompensation events still requires clarification.

METHODS

ICG-r15 was prospectively measured in 154 patients with compensated cirrhosis. Patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), Child-Pugh B-C, MELD>15, bilirubin > 2 mg/dl, INR > 1.5 or portal vein thrombosis were excluded. All patients underwent laboratory tests, upper endoscopy and hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG). Decompensation, development of HCC, liver transplant and death were recorded and analysed through competing-risk analysis.

RESULTS

The study group was composed of 134 patients who were followed for a median of 39 months. During follow-up, 46 patients (34.3%) developed liver decompensation. Hepatocellular carcinoma occurred in 18 patients and two patients died from non-liver-related causes. The 1-, 2- and 3-year cumulative incidences of decompensation were 9.7%, 28.4% and 33.4% respectively. Patients with ICG-r15 < 10% did not experience any decompensation events during follow-up, while the 3-year cumulative incidence of decompensation of patients with ICG-r15 between 10% and 22.9% was 29.2% and that of patients with ICG-r15 ≥ 23% was 70.0% (P < 0.001). ICG-r15 gave the lowest pseudo-log-likelihood value, in comparison to oesophageal varices present, MELD, low platelet count and HVPG.

CONCLUSIONS

ICG-r15 appears to be strictly related to liver decompensation, longitudinally confirming the preliminary findings of its correlation with PH among patients with compensated cirrhosis, and can be used for patient prognostication.