Evaluating Change in Men Who Have Sexually Offended: Linkages to Risk Assessment and Management

Understanding the Risk of Sexual Reoffending in Adult Men: A Network-Based Model

The predominant approach to understand dynamic risk factors of sexual reoffending has been referred to as the Propensities Model (Thornton, 2016). According to this model, dynamic risk factors can be conceptualized as latent constructs whose change alters the risk of sexual reoffending. Despite its strengths and contributions to research, this model does not offer answers to the question of how dynamic risk factors contribute to the risk of sexual reoffending, or of how sustained change in risk might take place. In this paper we introduce the Network-Based Model of Risk of Sexual Reoffending (NBM-RSR), which addresses several limitations and constraints of the Propensities Model and offers empirically testable propositions regarding the nature and development of the risk of sexual reoffending. The NBM-RSR considers risk of sexual reoffending to involve a self-sustaining network of causally connected dynamic risk factors. Consistent with this, an increased risk of sexual reoffending is characterized through a network that contains more and stronger interconnected dynamic risk factors with a higher strength. Sustained change in risk of sexual reoffending occurs when activity in the network exceeds a critical point resulting in a new self-sustaining network. Propositions based on the NBM-RSR are introduced and translated into testable hypotheses. These propositions revolve around (a) risk of sexual reoffending resulting from the construction of a network of causally connected dynamic risk factors, (b) network stability, sudden changes, and critical transitions, and (c) dynamic risk factors' relative influence on risk of sexual reoffending.

@myTabu-A Placebo Controlled Randomized Trial of a Guided Web-Based Intervention for Individuals Who Sexually Abused Children and Individuals Who Consumed Child Sexual Exploitation Material: A Clinical Study Protocol

Background: There is a high demand for evidence-based and cost-effective treatment concepts for convicted individuals who sexually abused children (ISAC) and individuals who consumed child sexual exploitation material (ICCSEM) under community supervision (CS). The @myTabu-consortium developed a guided web-based intervention for convicted ISAC and ICCSEM under CS consisting of six online modules targeting psychological meaningful risk factors. The study aims to evaluate the effectiveness of this guided web-based intervention in reducing dynamic risk factors and the risk to re-offend compared to a placebo condition. Furthermore, these dynamic risk factors are measured before and after every module to evaluate their individual effectiveness to reduce the respective risk factor as well as risk to re-offend. This clinical trial protocol describes the planned methods as well as the intervention concept. Methods: The methodological design is a placebo controlled randomized add-on trial (N = 582) with follow-ups at 8 points in time. The placebo condition controls for attention and expectation effects and comprises the same amount of modules with a comparable temporal effort as the experimental intervention. The trial is conducted as an add-on to community supervision as usually done. Primary outcomes are dynamic risk factors assessed by self-report risk assessment tools and officially recorded re-offenses. Discussion: To the best of our knowledge, the study is the first to compare the (cost-) effectiveness of a guided web-based intervention for convicted ISAC and ICCSEM under community supervision against a placebo condition. Methodological limitations (e.g., potential ceiling- or volunteers-effects) are discussed. Clinical Trial Registration: German Clinical Trial Register (DRKS 00021256). Prospectively registered: 24.04.2020.