Risk stratification for lateral involvement in papillary thyroid carcinoma patients with central lymph node metastasis

[Preoperative Evaluation of Cervical Lymph Node Metastasis in Patients With Hashimoto's Thyroiditis Combined With Thyroid Papillary Carcinoma Using Machine Learning and Radiomics-Based Features: A Preliminary Study]

Objective

To analyze the radiomic and clinical features extracted from 2D ultrasound images of thyroid tumors in patients with Hashimoto's thyroiditis (HT) combined with papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) using machine learning (ML) models, and to explore the diagnostic performance of the method in making preoperative noninvasive identification of cervical lymph node metastasis (LNM).

Methods

A total of 528 patients with HT combined with PTC were enrolled and divided into two groups based on their pathological results of the presence or absence of LNM. The groups were subsequently designated the With LNM Group and the Without LNM Group. Three ultrasound doctors independently delineated the regions of interest and extracted radiomic features. Two modes, radiomic features and radiomics-clinical features, were used to construct random forest (RF), support vector machine (SVM), LightGBM, K-nearest neighbor (KNN), and XGBoost models. The performance of these five ML models in the two modes was evaluated by the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves on the test dataset, and SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) was used for model visualization.

Results

All five ML models showed good performance, with area under the ROC curve (AUC) ranging from 0.798 to 0.921. LightGBM and XGBoost demonstrated the best performance, outperforming the other models (P<0.05). The ML models constructed with radiomics-clinical features performed better than those constructed using only radiomic features (P<0.05). The SHAP visualization of the best-performing models indicated that the anteroposterior diameter, superoinferior diameter, original_shape_VoxelVolume, age, wavelet-LHL_firstorder_10Percentile, and left-to-right diameter had the most significant effect on the LightGBM model. On the other hand, the superoinferior diameter, anteroposterior diameter, left-to-right diameter, original_shape_VoxelVolume, original_firstorder_InterquartileRange, and age had the most significant effect on the XGBoost model.

Conclusion

ML models based on radiomics and clinical features can accurately evaluate the cervical lymph node status in patients with HT combined with PTC. Among the 5 ML models, LightGBM and XGBoost demonstrate the best evaluation performance.

Association between different regional lymph node metastases of papillary thyroid carcinoma in adolescents and young adults

Adolescents and young adults (AYA) describe the demographic aged between 15-39 years diagnosed with cancer. This group is particularly at risk of papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) with a greater severity compared with other ages. Through comparative design, the present study aimed to quantify central lymph node metastasis (CLNM) risk in AYAs. A total of 463 AYA patients with PTC and 489 patients >39 years old with PTC from Ningbo Medical Center Lihuili Hospital (Ningbo, China) were enrolled. Details such as demographic data, serum indices and fine-needle aspiration from the Electronic Medical Records System were extracted and analyzed. AYA patients had significantly higher rates of ipsilateral Hashimoto thyroiditis, thyroid capsular invasion (TCI), CLNM, larger tumors and more positive central lymph nodes (CLN). Independent risk factors of CLNM in AYA patients were as follows: Male sex, presence of TCI, multifocality, bilateral disease and maximum tumor diameter (MTD) ≥1.0 cm. Independent risk factors of lateral lymph node metastasis in AYAs with CLNM were as follows: MTD ≥1.0 cm, maximum diameter of positive CLN ≥1.0 cm, and presence of ipsilateral nodular goiter. Furthermore, AYA patients with PTC displayed significantly greater aggression in primary tumor invasion and neck lymph node metastasis. Based on these findings, a treatment stratification chart was created to guide the PTC treatment approach for AYAs. The present study is registered at the Chinese Clinical Trials Registry (trial registration no. ChiCTR2200064921) in November 2022.

Study on diagnosing thyroid nodules of ACR TI-RADS 4-5 with multimodal ultrasound radiomics technology

BACKGROUND

Explore the feasibility of using the multimodal ultrasound (US) radiomics technology to diagnose American College of Radiology (ACR) Thyroid Imaging Reporting and Data System (TI-RADS) 4-5 thyroid nodules.

METHOD

This study prospectively collected the clinical characteristics, conventional, and US elastography images of 100 patients diagnosed with ACR TI-RADS 4-5 nodules from May 2022 to 2023. Independent risk factors for malignant thyroid nodules were extracted and screened using methods such as the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) logistic regression (LR) model, and a multimodal US radiomics combined diagnostic model was established. Using a multifactorial LR analysis and a Rad-score rating, the predictive performance was validated and evaluated, and the final threshold range was determined to assess the clinical net benefit of the model.

RESULTS

In the training set, the US radiomics combined predictive model area under curve (AUC = 0.928) had higher diagnostic performance compared with clinical characteristics (AUC = 0.779), conventional US (AUC = 0.794), and US elastography model (AUC = 0.852). In the validation set, the multimodal US radiomics combined diagnostic model (AUC = 0.829) also had higher diagnostic performance compared with clinical characteristics (AUC = 0.799), conventional US (AUC = 0.802), and US elastography model (AUC = 0.718).

CONCLUSION

Multi-modal US radiomics technology can effectively diagnose thyroid nodules of ACR TI-RADS 4-5, and the combination of radiomics signature and conventional US features can further improve the diagnostic performance.

Killing capacity analysis of tumor-infiltrating cytotoxic lymphocytes and impact on lymph node metastasis in differentiated papillary carcinoma of thyroid with the BRAF V600E mutation

BACKGROUND

Cytotoxic lymphocytes (CLs) express potent toxins, including perforin (P) and granzyme-B (G), which brings about target cell death. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the killing capacity of tumor-infiltrating CLs by means of P and G analysis, and explore the association with lymph node metastasis in papillary carcinoma of thyroid (PTC) without Hashimoto's thyroiditis (HT).

METHODS

Infiltration of lymphocytes in PTC was observed in frozen sections. Both fresh tumor tissues and paracancerous tissues with lymphocyte infiltration were collected and prepared into a single cell suspension. Flow cytometry was used to detect the percentages of CD3+P+, CD3+G+, CD8+P+, and CD8+G+ T lymphocytes (TLs) and CD16-CD56+P+ and CD16-CD56+G+ natural killer (NK) cells. Finally, we investigated differential expression of P and G in NK cells and cytotoxic T lymphocytes (CTLs) in paired tumor tissues (group T, n = 44) and paracancerous tissues (group N, n = 44) from patients with PTC with the BRAF V600E mutation. Furthermore, patients were divided into two groups according to whether cervical central lymph node metastasis (CCLNM) existed: group A (with lymph node metastases, n = 27) and group B (with nonlymph node metastases, n = 17). Patients were also divided into three groups according to the total number of positive CCLNM: group B, group C (with low-level lymph node metastases, less than 5, n = 17) and group D (with high-level lymph node metastases, no less than 5, n = 10).

RESULTS

The percentage of CD3+P+ CTLs was significantly higher in group N than in group T (P < 0.05). The percentage of CD8+G+ CTLs was significantly higher in group T than in group N (P < 0.05). The percentages of CD3+G+, CD16-CD56+P+and CD16-CD56+G+ NK cells showed no significant difference in either group T or group N (P > 0.05). The percentages of CD3+P+ CTLs in group A and group C were significantly higher in the paracancerous tissue than in the tumor tissue (P < 0.05). The percentages of CD8+G+ CTLs in group A and group C were significantly higher in the tumor tissues than in the paracancerous tissues (P < 0.05). The percentage of CD16-CD56+G+ NK cells in group D was significantly higher in the tumor tissues than in the paracancerous tissues (P < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

The killing capacity of infiltrating CLs in PTC differed between tumor tissues and paracancerous tissues. In cases with CCLNM, higher expression of CD16-CD56+G+ NK cells in tumor tissues may be associated with a high risk of lymph node metastasis.

Prospective application of a prediction model for lateral lymph node metastasis in papillary thyroid cancer patients with central lymph node metastasis

Objective

This study aimed to develop and apply a prediction model to estimate the probability of lateral lymph node metastasis (LLNM) in patients with cN0 unilateral papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) with central lymph node metastasis (CLNM).

Setting

All study data were collected from a single tertiary hospital.

Methods

Univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses were used to explore independent predictors of LLNM in the derivation and internal validation cohorts, which were used to construct and validate a nomogram. Another 96 patients were included prospectively to evaluate the efficacy of this nomogram.

Results

Maximum tumor diameter greater than 1.0 cm (OR, 2.712; 95% CI, 1.412-5.210), multifocality (OR, 2.758; 95% CI, 1.120-6.789), the number of CLNM ≥3 (OR, 2.579; 95% CI, 1.315-5.789), CLNM ratio ≥0.297 (OR, 2.905; 95% CI, 1.396-6.043), and tumors located in the upper portion (OR 2.846, 95% CI 1.151-7.039) were independent predictors associated with LLNM. The prediction model showed excellent discrimination with an AUC of 0.731 (95% CI, 0.635-0.827). Novel risk stratification for LLNM was constructed based on this nomogram. In the prospective cohort, we stratified these patients into three risk subgroups: low-, moderate-, and high-risk subgroups and we found that the probability of LLNM was positively correlated with the total points from the nomogram.

Conclusion

This nomogram was applied in prospective clinical practice and distinguished PTC patients with a genuinely high risk of LLNM. Surgeons can use our nomogram to tailor the surgical plan and to credibly determine further postoperative therapy.

Development and Validation of a Dual-Energy CT-Based Model for Predicting the Number of Central Lymph Node Metastases in Clinically Node-Negative Papillary Thyroid Carcinoma

RATIONALE AND OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to develop and validate a dual-energy CT (DECT)-based model for preoperative prediction of the number of central lymph node metastases (CLNMs) in clinically node-negative (cN0) papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) patients.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Between January 2016 and January 2021, 490 patients who underwent lobectomy or thyroidectomy, CLN dissection, and preoperative DECT examinations were enrolled and randomly allocated into the training (N = 345) and validation cohorts (N = 145). The patients' clinical characteristics and quantitative DECT parameters obtained on primary tumors were collected. Independent predictors of> 5 CLNMs were identified and integrated to construct a DECT-based prediction model, for which the area under the curve (AUC), calibration, and clinical usefulness were assessed. Risk group stratification was performed to distinguish patients with different recurrence risks.

RESULTS

More than 5 CLNMs were found in 75 (15.3%) cN0 PTC patients. Age, tumor size, normalized iodine concentration (NIC), normalized effective atomic number (nZeff) and the slope of the spectral Hounsfield unit curve (λHu) in the arterial phase were independently associated with> 5 CLNMs. The DECT-based nomogram that incorporated predictors demonstrated favorable performance in both cohorts (AUC: 0.842 and 0.848) and significantly outperformed the clinical model (AUC: 0.688 and 0.694). The nomogram showed good calibration and added clinical benefit for predicting> 5 CLNMs. The KaplanMeier curves for recurrence-free survival showed that the high- and low-risk groups stratified by the nomogram were significantly different.

CONCLUSION

The nomogram based on DECT parameters and clinical factors could facilitate preoperative prediction of the number of CLNMs in cN0 PTC patients.

Constructing a nomogram based on the distribution of thyroid nodules and suspicious lateral cervical lymph nodes in fine-needle aspiration biopsies to predict metastasis in papillary thyroid carcinoma

Purpose

Elevated concentrations of thyroglobulin eluent is a risk factor for lateral cervical lymph node metastasis (LLNM) in patients with papillary thyroid cancer (PTC). We aimed to develop a practical nomogram based on the distribution of thyroid nodules and the presence of suspicious lateral cervical lymph nodes in fine-needle aspiration biopsies (LN-FNABs), including the cytopathology and the suspicious lateral cervical lymph node (LLN) thyroglobulin eluent (Tg), to predict the possibility of LLNM preoperatively in patients with PTC.

Methods

The clinical data of PTC patients who were admitted to the Third Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University from January 2022 to May 2023 to undergo fine-needle aspiration biopsy (FNAB) were included in this study. A total of 208 patients in 2022 served as the training set (70%), and 89 patients in 2023 served as the validation set (30%). The clinical characteristics and LN-FNAB results were collected to determine the risk factors of LLNM. A preoperative nomogram was developed for predicting LLNM based on the results of the univariate and multivariate analyses. Internal calibration, external calibration, and decision curve analysis (DCA) were performed for these models.

Results

The multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that the maximum thyroid nodule diameter (Odds Ratio (OR) 2.323, 95% CI 1.383 to 3.904; p = 0.001), Tg level (OR 1.007, 95% CI 1.005 to 1.009; p = 0.000), Tg divided by serum thyroglobulin, (Tg/sTg) [odds ratio (OR) 1.005, 95% CI 1.001 to 1.008; p = 0.009], and cytopathology (OR 9.738, 95% CI 3.678 to 25.783; p = 0.000) (all p <  0.05) had a significant impact on the LLNM of patients with suspicious LLNs. The nomogram showed a better predictive value in both the training cohort [area under the curve, (AUC) 0.937, 95% CI 0.895 to 0.966] and the validation cohort (AUC 0.957, 95% CI 0.892 to 0.989). The nomogram also showed excellent internal and external calibration in predicting LLNM. According to the DCA, the diagnostic performance of this model was dependent on the following variables: maximum thyroid nodule diameter, Tg level, Tg/sTg, and cytopathology.

Conclusion

Based on the aforementioned risk factors, we believe that it is necessary to establish a personalized LLNM model for patients with PTC. Using this practical nomogram, which combines clinical and Tg risk factors, surgeons could accurately predict the possibility of LLNM preoperatively. The nomogram will also help surgeons to establish personalized treatment plans before surgery.

Risk factors for central lymph node metastasis in patients with papillary thyroid carcinoma: a retrospective study

Introduction

Thyroid cancer is the most prevalent endocrine malignancy, with its global incidence increasing annually in recent years. Papillary carcinoma is the most common subtype, frequently accompanied by cervical lymph node metastasis early on. Central lymph node metastasis (CLNM) is particularly the common metastasis form in this subtype, and the presence of lymph node metastasis correlates strongly with tumor recurrence. However, effective preoperative assessment methods for CLNM in patients with papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) remain lacking.

Methods

Data from 400 patients diagnosed with PTC between January 1, 2018, and January 1, 2022, at the Shandong Provincial Hospital were retrospectively analyzed. This data included clinicopathological information of the patients, such as thyroid function, BRAF V600E mutation, whether complicated with Hashimoto's thyroiditis, and the presence of capsular invasion. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to assess the risk factors associated with cervical CLNM in patients with PTC. Subsequently, a clinical prediction model was constructed, and prognostic risk factors were identified based on univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses.

Results

Univariate and multivariate analyses identified that age >45 years (P=0.014), body mass index ≥25 (P=0.008), tumor size ≥1 cm (P=0.001), capsular invasion (P=0.001), and the presence of BRAF V600E mutation (P<0.001) were significantly associated with an increased risk of CLNM. Integrating these factors into the nomogram revealed an area-under-the-curve of 0.791 (95% confidence interval 0.735-0.846) and 0.765 (95% confidence interval: 0.677-0.852) for the training and validation sets, respectively, indicating strong discriminative abilities. Subgroup analysis further confirmed that patients with papillary thyroid microcarcinoma and BRAF V600E mutations who underwent therapeutic central compartment neck dissection had significantly better 3-year disease-free survival than those who had prophylactic central compartment neck dissection (P<0.001).

Conclusion

The study revealed that age >45 years, body mass index ≥25, tumor size ≥1 cm, BRAF V600E mutation, and capsular invasion are the related risk factors for CLNM in patients with PTC. For patients with clinically nodal-negative (cN0) papillary thyroid microcarcinoma, accurately identifying the BRAF V600E mutation is essential for guiding the central lymph node dissection approach and subsequent treatments.

Comprehensive analysis of clinicopathologic and sonographic features in thyroid cancer with skip lymph node metastasis: establish and assessment of a prediction nomogram

Lateral Lymph Node Metastasis (LLNM) is common in Papillary Thyroid Carcinoma (PTC) and is associated with a poor prognosis. LLNM without central lymph node metastasis as skip metastasis is not common. We aimed to investigate clinicopathologic and sonographic risk factors for skip metastasis in PTC patients, and to establish a nomogram for predicting the possibility of skip metastasis in order to determine the therapeutic strategy. We retrospectively reviewed the data of 1037 PTC patients who underwent surgery from 2016 to 2020 at a single institution. Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to identify the clinicopathologic and preoperative sonographic risk factors of skip metastasis. A nomogram including the risk factors for predicting skip metastasis was further developed and validated. The incidence of skip metastasis was 10.7%. The univariate and multivariate analyses suggested that gender (p= 0.001), tumor location (p= 0.000), extrathyroidal extension (p= 0.000), and calcification (p= 0.000) were independent risk factors. For papillary thyroid microcarcinoma, tumor location (p= 0.000) and calcification (p= 0.001) were independent risk factors. A nomogram according to the clinicopathologic and sonographic predictors was developed. The receiver operating characteristic curve indicated that AUC was 0.824 and had an excellent consistency. The calibration plot analysis showed a good performance and clinical utility of the model. Decision curve analysis revealed it was clinically useful. A nomogram for predicting the probability of skip metastasis was developed, which exhibited a favorable predictive value and consistency. For the female PTC patient, tumor located at the upper pole is more likely to have skip metastasis. Surgeons and sonographers should pay close attention to the patients who have the risk factors. Evidence level: This article's evidence level is 3. Level 3 evidence is derived from non-randomized, controlled clinical trials. In this study, patients who receive an intervention are compared to a control group. Authors may detect a statistically significant and clinically relevant outcome.

The proposed modification of TNM staging and therapeutic strategy for skip metastasis in papillary thyroid carcinoma: A multicenter retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Skip metastasis is a special type of lateral lymph node metastasis, which is not classified definitely by the eighth edition of the AJCC TNM staging system. The aim of the research was to study the prognosis of skip metastasis in PTC patients, and carry out a more appropriate N staging for skip metastasis.

METHODS

Study subjects were 3167 patients with papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC), who underwent thyroidectomy at three clinical centers from 2016 to 2019. We identified two well-balanced cohorts matched on the basis of propensity score.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 42 months, recurrence occurred in 68 (4.3%) patients with lymph node metastasis. 34 cases recurred in 1120 patients with central lymph node metastasis (N1a), and 34 recurred in 461 patients with lateral lymph node metastasis (N1b), among which 73 patients were diagnosis with skip metastasis. The RFS of N1a was significantly lower than that of N1b (p < 0.001). After propensity-score matching, recurrence rate was significantly lower in the skip metastasis group than in the LLNM group (p = 0.039), whereas the rate was similar in the skip metastasis groups and the CLNM group (p = 0.29).

CONCLUSIONS

In conclusion, our study indicated that, among patients with LLNM, those with positive skip metastasis showed significantly lower recurrence, exhibiting a similar rucurrence tendency as patients with CLNM. Thus, skip metastasis could be categorized into N1a stage rather than N1b stage based on the AJCC TNM staging system. The downstaging of skip metastasis may reveal more conservative treatment strategy.

Accuracy of papillary thyroid cancer prognostic nomograms: a systematic review

Objective

Current staging and risk-stratification systems for predicting survival or recurrence of patients with differentiated thyroid carcinoma may be ineffective at predicting outcomes in individual patients. In recent years, nomograms have been proposed as an alternative to conventional systems for predicting personalized clinical outcomes. We conducted a systematic review to evaluate the predictive performance of available nomograms for thyroid cancer patients.

Design and methods

PROSPERO registration (CRD42022327028). A systematic search was conducted without time and language restrictions. PICOT questions: population, patients with papillary thyroid cancer; comparator prognostic factor, single-arm studies; outcomes, overall survival, disease-free survival, cancer-specific survival, recurrence, central lymph node metastases, or lateral lymph node metastases; timing, all periods; setting, hospital setting. Risk of bias was assessed through PROBAST tool.

Results

Eighteen studies with a total of 20 prognostic models were included in the systematic review (90,969 papillary thyroid carcinoma patients). Fourteen models were at high risk of bias and four were at unclear risk of bias. The greatest concerns arose in the analysis domain. The accuracy of nomograms for overall survival was assessed in only one study and appeared limited (0.77, 95% CI: 0.75-0.79). The accuracy of nomograms for disease-free survival ranged from 0.65 (95% CI: 0.55-0.75) to 0.92 (95% CI: 0.91-0.95). The C-index for predicting lateral lymph node metastasis ranged from 0.72 to 0.92 (95% CI: 0.86-0.97). For central lymph node metastasis, the C-index of externally validated studies ranged from 0.706 (95% CI: 0.685-0.727) to 0.923 (95% CI: 0.893-0.946).

Conclusions

Our work highlights the extremely high heterogeneity among nomograms and the critical lack of external validation studies that limit the applicability of nomograms in clinical practice. Further studies ideally using commonly adopted risk factors as the backbone to develop nomograms are required.

Significance statement

Nomograms may be appropriate tools to plan treatments and predict personalized clinical outcomes in patients with papillary thyroid cancer. However, the nomograms developed to date are very heterogeneous, and their results seem to be closely related to the specific samples studied to generate the same nomograms. The lack of rigorous external validation procedures and the use of risk factors that sometimes appear to be far from those commonly used in clinical practice, as well as the great heterogeneity of the risk factors considered, limit the ability of nomograms to predict patient outcomes and thus their current introduction in clinical practice.

Central and lateral neck involvement in papillary thyroid carcinoma patients with or without thyroid capsular invasion: A multi-center analysis

PURPOSES

To quantitatively predict the probability of cervical lymph node metastasis for papillary thyroid carcinomas (PTC) patients with or without thyroid capsular invasion (TCI), to guide the decision-making of management strategies for neck regions.

METHODS

A total of 998 PTC patients from three medical centers were retrospectively analyzed.

RESULTS

Patients with positive TCI (TCI group) exhibited higher risks for both CLNM and LLNM than those with negative TCI (no-TCI group). Patients receiving lateral lymph node dissection showed significantly higher incidence of relatively severe postoperative complications. For no-TCI group, factors including age less than 55 years old, male, the presence of bilateral disease and multifocality, and maximum tumor diameter (MTD)>=0.5cm were confirmed to be independent risk factors for CLNM, while the presence of bilateral disease and ipsilateral nodular goiter (iNG), and maximum positive CLN diameter (MCLND)>1.0cm independent factors for LLNM. Independent risk factors of LLNM for patients within the TCI group included MCLND>1.0cm, positive CLN number>=3, and the presence of iNG. Predictive models of CLNM and LLNM were established based on the aforementioned risk factors for patients within no-TCI and TCI groups. A meticulous and comprehensive risk stratification flow chart was established for a more accurate evaluation of central neck involvement including both CLNM and LLNM risk in PTC patients.

CONCLUSIONS

A meticulous and comprehensive stratification flow chart for PTC patients for quantitatively evaluating both CLNM and LLNM was constructed.

Nomograms for the prediction of lateral lymph node metastasis in papillary thyroid carcinoma: Stratification by size

Background

Lateral lymph node metastasis (LLNM) is a risk factor of poor prognosis in papillary thyroid cancer (PTC). We aimed to determine predictive factors and develop the nomograms for LLNM in patients with papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC) and macro-PTC.

Methods

We reviewed the medical records of 1,106 patients who underwent surgery between January 2019 and January 2022. Patients were divided into a PTMC and a macro-PTC group. We developed preoperative and postoperative nomograms for predicting LLNM based on results of multivariate analysis. Internal calibration was performed for these models.

Results

The number of metastatic lymph nodes in lateral compartment was higher in macro-PTC patients. LLNM was independently associated with gender, the number of foci, location, shape, and central lymph node metastasis (CLNM) in PTMC patients. For macro-PTC patients, chronic lymphocytic thyroiditis, the number of foci, location, margin, CLNM, and central lymph node ratio were all independent predictors for LLNM. All the above factors were incorporated into nomograms, which showed the perfect discriminative ability.

Conclusion

The diameter of the tumor has an impact on the rate of LLNM. Separate predictive systems should be used for PTMC and macro-PTC patients for more accurate clinical assessment of lateral lymph node status. Through these nomograms, we can not only detect high-risk patients with occult LLNM preoperatively, but also form appropriate treatment protocols for postoperative management of PTC patients with different risks.

Lateral Involvement in Different Sized Papillary Thyroid Carcinomas Patients with Central Lymph Node Metastasis: A Multi-Center Analysis

Objective: To quantitatively predict the probability of lateral lymph node metastasis (LLNM) for papillary thyroid carcinomas (PTC) patients with central lymph node metastasis (CLNM) in order to guide postoperative adjuvant treatment. Methods: Five hundred and three PTC patients with CLNM from three medical centers were retrospectively analyzed. Results: The LLNM rate for all patients was 23.9% (120 in 503), with 15.5% (45 in 291) and 35.4% (75 in 212) for patients with papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC) and large papillary thyroid carcinoma (LPTC), respectively. Patients with no fewer than five positive central lymph nodes (CLN) exhibited a higher risk of LLNM. For patients with fewer than five positive CLN, a maximum diameter of positive CLN > 0.5 cm and the presence of ipsilateral nodular goiter were identified as independent risk factors of LLNM for papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC) patients. The independent risk factors of LLNM for large papillary thyroid carcinoma (LPTC) patients included a tumor located in the upper portion of thyroid, maximum tumor diameter ≥ 2.0 cm, maximum diameter of positive CLN > 0.5 cm, and the presence of thyroid capsular invasion. Predictive nomograms were established based on these risk factors for PTMC and LPTC patients, respectively. The accuracy and validity of our newly built models were verified by C-index and calibration curves. PTMC and LPTC patients with fewer than five positive CLN were each stratified into three subgroups based on their nomogram risk scores, and a detailed risk stratification flow chart was established for a more accurate evaluation of LLNM risk in PTC patients. Conclusions: A detailed stratification flow chart for PTC patients with CLNM to quantitatively assess LLNM risk was established, which may aid in clinical decision-making for those patients.

Clinicopathological Findings Associated With Cervical Lymph Node Metastasis in Papillary Thyroid Microcarcinoma: A Retrospective Study in China

Objective

The incidence of papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC) has increased sharply during the past decades. Yet, whether or not nodal dissection should be performed remains controversial. This article aims to assess the high-risk factors associated with cervical lymph node metastasis (LNM) in patients with PTMC, which may potentially guide clinical management decision-making.

Methods

Medical records of 449 PTMC patients who underwent thyroidectomy in our hospital from August 2016 to July 2017 were retrospectively reviewed. Clinical and pathological factors of the patients were anonymously extracted from the charts and analyzed.

Result

The patients were classified into two subgroups according to maximum tumor size measured through post-surgical pathology: smaller PTMC group (≤5 mm) and larger PTMC group (>5 mm). Larger tumor size was found to be associated with a higher rate of LNM (P = .001), particularly central lymph node metastasis (CLNM) (P = .001). Tumor size was also associated with extrathyroidal tumor extension (ETE) (P < .001), bilateral lesions (P = .015), and BRAF^v600e mutation (P = .004). LNM was found to be more common in older patients (>55 y) (P = .030), and those with multifocal cancer (P < .001). In PTMC patients with unilateral lesions without ETE, tumor size was not significantly associated with LNM (P = .121).

Conclusions

For the PTMC population, tumor size was an independent risk factor for LNM, particularly for patients of old age (>55 y), and multifocality. However, in PTMC patients with unilateral lesions without extrathyroidal extension, tumor size was not related to the risk of LNM. These findings may potentially guide clinical decision-making in terms of cervical nodal dissection.

Radiomics Analysis of Computed Tomography for Prediction of Thyroid Capsule Invasion in Papillary Thyroid Carcinoma: A Multi-Classifier and Two-Center Study

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the application of computed tomography (CT)-based radiomics model for prediction of thyroid capsule invasion (TCI) in papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC).

METHODS

This retrospective study recruited 412 consecutive PTC patients from two independent institutions and randomly assigned to training (n=265), internal test (n=114) and external test (n=33) cohorts. Radiomics features were extracted from non-contrast (NC) and artery phase (AP) CT scans. We also calculated delta radiomics features, which are defined as the absolute differences between the extracted radiomics features. One-way analysis of variance and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator were used to select optimal radiomics features. Then, six supervised machine learning radiomics models (k-nearest neighbor, logistic regression, decision tree, linear support vector machine [L-SVM], Gaussian-SVM, and polynomial-SVM) were constructed. Univariate was used to select clinicoradiological risk factors. Combined models including optimal radiomics features and clinicoradiological risk factors were constructed by these six classifiers. The prediction performance was evaluated using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA).

RESULTS

In the internal test cohort, the best combined model (L-SVM, AUC=0.820 [95% CI 0.758-0.888]) performed better than the best radiomics model (L-SVM, AUC = 0.733 [95% CI 0.654-0.812]) and the clinical model (AUC = 0.709 [95% CI 0.649-0.783]). Combined-L-SVM model combines 23 radiomics features and 1 clinicoradiological risk factor (CT-reported TCI). In the external test cohort, the AUC was 0.776 (0.625-0.904) in the combined-L-SVM model, showing that the model is stable. DCA demonstrated that the combined model was clinically useful.

CONCLUSIONS

Our combined model based on machine learning incorporated with CT radiomics features and the clinicoradiological risk factor shows good predictive ability for TCI in PTC.

Male Gender Is Associated with Lymph Node Metastasis but Not with Recurrence in Papillary Thyroid Carcinoma

BACKGROUND

The incidence of papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) is higher in females than in males, but it remains unclear whether gender is associated with the aggressiveness of this disease. We aimed to clarify the influence of gender on the risk of developing lymph node metastasis (LNM) and on the prognosis of PTC patients. Study Design. Retrospective cohort study. Setting. Academic tertiary care center.

METHODS

Clinical data of PTC patients who were admitted to the Department of Endocrine and Breast Surgery, the First Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University, between January 2013 and December 2018 were retrospectively reviewed. The differences in clinical features and outcomes between female and male patients were compared. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were conducted to assess the impact of gender on LNM. Kaplan-Meier curves were used to estimate recurrence-free survival (RFS).

RESULTS

A total of consecutive 2536 patients were enrolled in this study. Males accounted for 25.2% (639 cases) of all patients. Central lymph node metastasis (CLNM) and lateral lymph node metastasis (LLNM) rates were 52.5% (1346/2536) and 22.0% (558/2536), respectively. Male presented with higher LNM rates than female patients (65.7% vs. 51.2%; P < 0.001). Male gender was independently associated with LNM (OR = 1.93, 95% CI: 1.59-2.35; P < 0.001). After full adjustment, male gender still remained significantly associated with CLNM in all subgroups; however, subgroup analyses indicated no significant relationship between gender and LLNM. In addition, after a median follow-up period of 30 months, no significant difference was found in RFS between female and male patients (P=0.15).

CONCLUSIONS

This observational cohort study revealed that male gender was significantly associated with CLNM; whereas, LLNM was not different between female and male PTC patients in southwestern China. Moreover, currently, there is insufficient evidence to justify that male gender is an independent prognostic factor for recurrence.

A new prediction model for lateral cervical lymph node metastasis in patients with papillary thyroid carcinoma: Based on dual-energy CT

PURPOSE

The current study aimed to develop and validate a prediction model to estimate the independent risk factors for lateral cervical lymph node metastasis (LLNM) in papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) patients based on dual-energy computed tomography (DECT).

METHOD

This study retrospectively conducted 406 consecutive patients from July 2015 to June 2019 to form the derivation cohorts and performed internal validation. 101 consecutive patients from July 2019 to June 2020 were included to create the external validation cohort. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses were used to evaluate independent risk factors for LLNM. A prediction model based on DECT parameters was built and presented on a nomogram. The internal and external validations were performed.

RESULTS

Iodine concentration (IC) in the arterial phase (OR 2.761, 95% CI 1.028-7.415, P 0.044), IC in venous phase (OR 3.820, 95% CI 1.430-10.209, P 0.008), located in the superior pole (OR 4.181, 95% CI 2.645-6.609, P 0.000), and extrathyroidal extension (OR 4.392, 95% CI 2.142-9.004, P 0.000) were independently associated with LLNM in the derivation cohort. These four predictors were incorporated into the nomogram. The model showed good discrimination in the derivation (AUC, 0.899), internal (AUC, 0.905), and external validation (AUC, 0.912) cohorts. The decision curve revealed that more advantages would be added using the nomogram to estimate LLNM, which implied that the lateral lymph node dissection was recommended.

CONCLUSIONS

DECT parameters could provide independent indicators of LLNM in PTC patients, and the nomogram based on them may be helpful in treatment decision-making.

Thyroglobulin Measurement Through Fine-Needle Aspiration for Optimizing Neck Node Dissection in Papillary Thyroid Cancer

BACKGROUND

Thyroglobulin measurement in fine-needle aspiration (FNA-Tg) is an additional diagnostic tool of lymph node metastasis (LNM) in papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC). However, its performance as a preoperative indicator of lateral neck LNM in PTC is unclear. We evaluated the use of FNA cytology and FNA-Tg to detect neck LNM presurgery using a simple methodology, and established a cut-off value for diagnosing LNM in PTC.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective cohort study based on hospital records, including 299 FNA-Tg measurements from 228 patients with PTC. The cut-off value for FNA-Tg was obtained through a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. The relationships between various parameters and FNA-Tg were analyzed using Spearman's correlation.

RESULTS

Of 299 lymph nodes (LNs) from 228 patients following surgery, 151 were malignant and 148 were benign. The median FNA-Tg levels were 414.40 ng/mL and 6.36 ng/mL in the metastatic and benign LNs, respectively. An FNA-Tg cut-off value of 28.3 ng/mL had the best diagnostic performance (93.38% sensitivity, 70.27% specificity, area under the ROC curve [AUC] 0.868) in the whole cohort. The diagnostic value performed better in the lateral neck group (level II-V, n = 163) than in the central neck group (level VI, n = 136); in the lateral neck group, the sensitivity and specificity of the FNA-Tg cut-off (16.8 ng/mL) were 96.25% and 96.36%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

FNA-Tg is a useful technique for the diagnosis of LNM before surgery, especially in lateral neck dissection.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ChiCTR1900028547.

Delphian lymph node metastasis is a novel indicator of tumor aggressiveness and poor prognosis in papillary thyroid cancer

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Although the significance of Delphian lymph nodes (DLNs) in patients with papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) has been reported, all studies have been based on a small sample size and lack a direct statement concerning prognosis.

METHODS

A total of 904 consecutive patients were enrolled in the current study, and all patients were divided into two groups (DLN-positive and DLN-negative) according to the presence of DLN metastasis.

RESULTS

DLN was detected in 687 patients (76.0%), and 123 (17.9%) had DLN metastasis. Compared to those in the DLN-negative group, the proportion of other central lymph node (CLN) metastases, mean number of metastatic CLNs, and mean metastatic CLN ratio were higher in the DLN-positive group (86.2 vs. 50.2%, 6.70 ± 5.19 vs. 1.60 ± 2.37, and 0.54 ± 0.25 vs. 0.18 ± 0.26, respectively; p < .001). The same phenomena were observed in the metastatic lateral lymph nodes (LLNs) between the DLN-positive and DLN-negative groups (52.0 vs. 15.4%, 7.28 ± 6.08 vs. 3.38 ± 3.73, and 0.23 ± 0.15 vs. 0.13 ± 0.12, respectively; p < .001). Patients in the DLN-positive group had shorter LLN metastasis-free survival and distant metastasis-free survival than patients in the DLN-negative group (93.5% vs. 98.6% and 95.9% vs. 98.8%, respectively, p < .05).

CONCLUSIONS

DLN metastasis in PTC is associated with tumor aggressiveness and a poor prognosis.

Prediction of ipsilateral lateral cervical lymph node metastasis in papillary thyroid carcinoma: a combined dual-energy CT and thyroid function indicators study

BACKGROUND

Predicting the possibility of ipsilateral lateral cervical lymph node metastasis (ipsi-LLNM) was crucial to the operation plan for patients with papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC). This study aimed to investigate the independent risk factors for ipsi-LLNM in PTC patients by combining dual-energy computed tomography (DECT) with thyroid function indicators.

METHODS

We retrospectively enrolled 406 patients with a pathological diagnosis of PTC from Jan 2016 to Dec 2019. Ensure the DECT images were clear and the thyroid function indicators were complete. Univariate and multivariate logistic analyses explored the independent risk factors for ipsi-LLNM. To evaluate the cutoff value of each risk factor by using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves.

RESULTS

A total of 406 patients with PTC were analyzed, including 128 with ipsi-LLNM and 278 without ipsi-LLNM. There were statistical differences of parameters between the two groups (P < .0001), including serum Tg, Anti-Tg, Anti-TPO, the volume of the primary lesion, calcification, extrathyroidal extension (ETE), and iodine concentration (IC) in the arterial and the venous phases. Independent risk factors for ipsi-LLNM included serum Tg, Anti-Tg, ETE, and IC in the arterial and the venous phases (P < .05). The combined application of the above independent risk factors can predict the possibility of ipsi-LLNM, with an AUC of 0.834. Ipsi-LLNM was more likely to occur when the following conditions were met: with ETE, Tg >  100.01 ng/mL, Anti-Tg >  89.43 IU/mL, IC in arterial phase > 3.4 mg/mL and IC in venous phase > 3.1 mg/mL.

CONCLUSIONS

The combined application of DECT quantitative parameters and thyroid function indicators can help clinicians accurately predict ipsi-LLNM before surgery, thereby assisting the individualized formulation of surgical procedures.

Features of Lymph Node Metastasis and Structural Recurrence in Papillary Thyroid Carcinoma Located in the Upper Portion of the Thyroid: A Retrospective Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

This study aims to reveal the features of lymph node metastasis (LNM) and recurrence in papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) tumors located in the upper portion of the thyroid.

METHODS

A total of 1075 PTC patients were retrospectively reviewed, including 314 patients with a tumor in the upper portion of the thyroid. Another 103 PTC patients with upper portion diagonsis from three clinical centers were included for external validation.

RESULTS

The results showed no difference between the patients with a tumor in the upper portion of the thyroid and those with a tumor in the non-upper portion in terms of overall LNM rates. However, patients with a tumor in the upper portion were significantly more prone to LLNM and exhibited a significantly worse recurrence outcome than those with a tumor in other subregions. Multivariate analysis showed that four factors-age no more than 40, maximum tumor diameter no less than1.0 cm, the presence of thyroid capsular invasion, and tumor with ipsilateral nodular goiter-were independent risk factors for LLNM of the tumor in the upper thyroid. A predictive risk-scoring model was established based on these factors.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with PTC located in the upper portion may have an exclusive lymphatic drainage pathway to the lateral neck region and are more prone to suffer from LLNM and tumor recurrence than those with a tumor located in other subregions. A new postoperative strategy selection flow chart was established based on our newly created risk-scoring model that can effectively predict the individualized possibility of LLNM for PTC patients with a tumor in the upper portion.

Risk Factors and a Prediction Model of Lateral Lymph Node Metastasis in CN0 Papillary Thyroid Carcinoma Patients With 1-2 Central Lymph Node Metastases

BACKGROUND

Papillary thyroid cancer (PTC) in clinically lymph node-negative (cN0) patients is prone toward lymph node metastasis. As a risk factor for tumor persistence and local recurrence, lateral lymph node metastasis (LLNM) is related to the number of central lymph node metastases (CLNMs).

METHODS

We performed LLNM risk stratification based on the number of CLNMs for cN0 PTC patients who underwent thyroidectomy and lymph node dissection between January 2013 and December 2018. A retrospective analysis was applied to the 274 collected patients with 1-2 CLNMs. We examined the clinicopathological characteristics of the patients and constructed a LASSO model.

RESULTS

In the 1-2 CLNM group, tumors >10 mm located in the upper region and nodular goiters were independent risk factors for LLNM. Specifically, tumors >20 mm and located in the upper region contributed to metastasis risk at level II. Hashimoto's thyroiditis reduced this risk (p = 0.045, OR = 0.280). Age ≤ 30 years and calcification (microcalcification within thyroid nodules) correlated with LLNM. The LASSO model divided the population into low- (25.74%) and high-risk (57.25%) groups for LLNM, with an AUC of 0.715.

CONCLUSIONS

For patients with 1-2 CLNMs, young age, calcification, nodular goiter, tumor >10 mm, and tumor in the upper region should alert clinicians to considering a higher occult LLNM burden. Close follow-up and therapy adjustment may be warranted for high-risk patients.

Management of Lateral Multiple-Level Metastasis in N1b Papillary Thyroid Microcarcinoma

Background: The optimal extent of therapeutic lateral neck dissection (LND) in the management of N1b papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC) is still under debate in clinical practice. In this light, our study aims to explore the incidence, patterns, and predictive factors of the lateral multiple-level metastasis in N1b PTMC patients. Methods: The clinical records of 142 patients diagnosed with N1b PTMC who underwent therapeutic LND from July 2015 to November 2018 at our institution were retrospectively reviewed. Univariate and multivariate analyses were conducted to examine the predictive factors associated with lateral multiple-level metastasis. The recurrence-free survival was analyzed and confirmed by Kaplan-Meier plots and log-rank test. Results: The overall frequency of lateral multiple-level metastasis was 50.7% in N1b PTMC patients, and two-level to four-level simultaneous metastasis were present in 26.8, 17.6, and 6.3% patients, respectively. Extrathyroidal extension (ETE) (OR = 5.79, 95% CI, 1.36-24.59; P = 0.017) and the central metastatic lymph node ratio (CLNR) with values equal or higher than 0.61 (OR = 6.18, 95% CI, 2.53-15.09; P < 0.001) served as independent predictors of multiple-level metastasis in N1b PTMC patients. Moreover, locoregional recurrence was significantly higher in the selective neck dissection (SND) group compared to the modified radical neck dissection (MRND) one (HR = 3.65, 95% CI, 1.11-12.00; P = 0.03). Conclusion: Our results show that the lateral multiple-level metastasis was relatively common, and we suggest MRND to be considered for N1b PTMC patients with ETE or CLNR equal or higher than 0.61.