Defining fitness in evolutionary models

Life history and deleterious mutation rate coevolution

The cost of germline maintenance gives rise to a trade-off between lowering the deleterious mutation rate and investing in life history functions. Therefore, life history and the mutation rate coevolve, but this coevolution is not well understood. We develop a mathematical model to analyse the evolution of resource allocation traits, which simultaneously affect life history and the deleterious mutation rate. First, we show that the invasion fitness of such resource allocation traits can be approximated by the basic reproductive number of the least-loaded class; the expected lifetime production of offspring without deleterious mutations born to individuals without deleterious mutations. Second, we apply the model to investigate (i) the coevolution of reproductive effort and germline maintenance and (ii) the coevolution of age-at-maturity and germline maintenance. This analysis provides two resource allocation predictions when exposure to environmental mutagens is higher. First, selection favours higher allocation to germline maintenance, even if it comes at the expense of life history functions, and leads to a shift in allocation towards reproduction rather than survival. Second, life histories tend to be faster, characterised by individuals with shorter lifespans and smaller body sizes at maturity. Our results suggest that mutation accumulation via the cost of germline maintenance can be a major force shaping life-history traits.

Universality of evolutionary trajectories under arbitrary forms of self-limitation and competition

The assumption of constant population size is central in population genetics. It led to a large body of results that is robust to modeling choices and that has proven successful to understand evolutionary dynamics. In reality, allele frequencies and population size are both determined by the interaction between a population and the environment. Relaxing the constant-population assumption has two big drawbacks. It increases the technical difficulty of the analysis, and it requires specifying a mechanism for the saturation of the population size, possibly making the results contingent on model details. Here we develop a framework that encompasses a great variety of systems with an arbitrary mechanism for population growth limitation. By using techniques based on scale separation for stochastic processes, we are able to calculate analytically properties of evolutionary trajectories, such as the fixation probability. Remarkably, these properties assume a universal form with respect to our framework, which depends on only three parameters related to the intergeneration timescale, the invasion fitness, and the carrying capacity of the strains. In other words, different systems, such as Lotka-Volterra or a chemostat model (contained in our framework), share the same evolutionary outcomes after a proper remapping of their parameters. An important and surprising consequence of our results is that the direction of selection can be inverted, with a population evolving to reach lower values of invasion fitness.

The far-reaching effects of genetic process in a keystone predator species, grey wolves

Although detrimental genetic processes are known to adversely affect the viability of populations, little is known about how detrimental genetic processes in a keystone species can affect the functioning of ecosystems. Here, we assessed how changes in the genetic characteristics of a keystone predator, grey wolves, affected the ecosystem of Isle Royale National Park over two decades. Changes in the genetic characteristic of the wolf population associated with a genetic rescue event, followed by high levels of inbreeding, led to a rise and then fall in predation rates on moose, the primary prey of wolves and dominant mammalian herbivore in this system. Those changes in predation rate led to large fluctuations in moose abundance, which in turn affected browse rates on balsam fir, the dominant forage for moose during winter and an important boreal forest species. Thus, forest dynamics can be traced back to changes in the genetic characteristics of a predator population.

Abiogenesis through gradual evolution of autocatalysis into template-based replication

How life emerged from inanimate matter is one of the most intriguing questions posed to modern science. Central to this research are experimental attempts to build systems capable of Darwinian evolution. RNA catalysts (ribozymes) are a promising avenue, in line with the RNA world hypothesis whereby RNA pre-dated DNA and proteins. Since evolution in living organisms relies on template-based replication, the identification of a ribozyme capable of replicating itself (an RNA self-replicase) has been a major objective. However, no self-replicase has been identified to date. Alternatively, autocatalytic systems involving multiple RNA species capable of ligation and recombination may enable self-reproduction. However, it remains unclear how evolution could emerge in autocatalytic systems. In this review, we examine how experimentally feasible RNA reactions catalysed by ribozymes could implement the evolutionary properties of variation, heredity and reproduction, and ultimately allow for Darwinian evolution. We propose a gradual path for the emergence of evolution, initially supported by autocatalytic systems leading to the later appearance of RNA replicases.

Different proxies, different stories? Imperfect correlations and different determinants of fitness in bighorn sheep

Measuring individual fitness empirically is required to assess selective pressures and predicts evolutionary changes in nature. There is, however, little consensus on how fitness should be empirically estimated. As fitness proxies vary in their underlying assumptions, their relative sensitivity to individual, environmental, and demographic factors may also vary. Here, using a long-term study, we aimed at identifying the determinants of individual fitness in bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) using seven fitness proxies. Specifically, we compared four-lifetime fitness proxies: lifetime breeding success, lifetime reproductive success, individual growth rate, individual contribution to population growth, and three multi-generational proxies: number of granddaughters, individual descendance in the next generation, and relative genetic contribution to the next generation. We found that all proxies were positively correlated, but the magnitude of the correlations varied substantially. Longevity was the main determinant of most fitness proxies. Individual fitness calculated over more than one generation was also affected by population density and growth rate. Because they are affected by contrasting factors, our study suggests that different fitness proxies should not be used interchangeably as they may convey different information about selective pressures and lead to divergent evolutionary predictions. Uncovering the mechanisms underlying variation in individual fitness and improving our ability to predict evolutionary change might require the use of several, rather than one, the proxy of individual fitness.

Discussions of the "Not So Fit": How Ableism Limits Diverse Thought and Investigative Potential in Evolutionary Biology

AbstractEvolutionary biology and many of its foundational concepts are grounded in a history of ableism and eugenics. The field has not made a concerted effort to divest our concepts and investigative tools from this fraught history, and as a result, an ableist investigative lens has persisted in present-day evolutionary research, limiting the scope of research and harming the ability to communicate and synthesize knowledge about evolutionary processes. This failure to divest from our eugenicist and ableist history has harmed progress in evolutionary biology and allowed principles from evolutionary biology to continue to be weaponized against marginalized communities in the modern day. To rectify this problem, scholars in evolutionary research must come to terms with how the history of the field has influenced their investigations and work to establish a new framework for defining and investigating concepts such as selection and fitness.

The Contributions of Maternal Age Heterogeneity to Variance in Lifetime Reproductive Output

AbstractVariance among individuals in fitness components reflects both genuine heterogeneity between individuals and stochasticity in events experienced along the life cycle. Maternal age represents a form of heterogeneity that affects both the mean and the variance of lifetime reproductive output (LRO). Here, we quantify the relative contribution of maternal age heterogeneity to the variance in LRO using individual-level laboratory data on the rotifer Brachionus manjavacas to parameterize a multistate age × maternal age matrix model. In B. manjavacas, advanced maternal age has large negative effects on offspring survival and fertility. We used multistate Markov chains with rewards to quantify the contributions to variance in LRO of heterogeneity and of the stochasticity inherent in the outcomes of probabilistic transitions and reproductive events. Under laboratory conditions, maternal age heterogeneity contributes 26% of the variance in LRO. The contribution changes when mortality and fertility are reduced to mimic more ecologically relevant environments. Over the parameter space where populations are near stationarity, maternal age heterogeneity contributes an average of 3% of the variance. Thus, the contributions of maternal age heterogeneity and individual stochasticity can be expected to depend strongly on environmental conditions; over most of the parameter space, the variance in LRO is dominated by stochasticity.

What is the best fitness measure in wild populations? A case study on the power of short-term fitness proxies to predict reproductive value

Fitness is at the core of evolutionary theory, but it is difficult to measure accurately. One way to measure long-term fitness is by calculating the individual’s reproductive value, which represents the expected number of allele copies an individual passes on to distant future generations. However, this metric of fitness is scarcely used because the estimation of individual’s reproductive value requires long-term pedigree data, which is rarely available in wild populations where following individuals from birth to death is often impossible. Wild study systems therefore use short-term fitness metrics as proxies, such as the number of offspring produced. This study compared two frequently used short-term metrics for fitness obtained at different offspring life stages (eggs, hatchlings, fledglings and recruits), and compared their ability to predict reproductive values derived from the genetic pedigree of a wild passerine bird population. We used twenty years of precise field observations and a near-complete genetic pedigree to calculate reproductive success, individual growth rate and de-lifed fitness as lifetime fitness measures, and as annual de-lifed fitness. We compared the power of these metrics to predict reproductive values and lineage survival to the end of the study period. The three short-term fitness proxies predict the reproductive values and lineage survival only when measured at the recruit stage. There were no significant differences between the different fitness proxies at the same offspring stages in predicting the reproductive values and lineage survival. Annual fitness at one year old predicted reproductive values equally well as lifetime de-lifed fitness. However, none of the short-term fitness proxies were strongly associated with the reproductive values. The commonly used short-term fitness proxies best predict long-term fitness when measured at recruitment stage. Thus, because lifetime fitness measured at recruit stage and annual fitness in the first year of life were the best proxies of long-term fitness in short-lived birds, we encourage their future use.

What do we know (and need to know) about the role of urban habitats as ecological traps? Systematic review and meta-analysis

Urban areas represent a spectrum that goes from being safe habitats for biodiversity (i.e., habitats more or equally preferred, without costs to fitness) to being ecological traps (i.e., habitats more or equally preferred, but with costs to fitness). Given the imminent urban expansion, it is valuable to assess how biodiversity is responding to urbanization and thus generate timely conservation strategies. We systematically review the urban ecology literature to analyze how much do we know about the role of urban areas as ecological traps. Using a formal meta-analytical approach, we test whether urban areas are functioning as ecological traps or as safe habitats for different taxonomic groups. We generated a data set of 646 effect sizes of different measures of habitat preferences and fitness from 38 papers published between 1985 and 2020. The data set covered 15 countries and 47 urban areas from four continents, including 29 animal species. Studies from North America and Europe were best represented, and birds were the most studied taxa. Overall, the meta-analysis suggests that urbanized habitats are functioning more as safe sites than as ecological traps, mainly for certain species with characteristics that have allowed them to adapt well to urban areas. That is, many of the studied species prefer more urbanized habitats over other less urbanized sites, and their fitness is not modified, or it is even increased. However, there was high heterogeneity among studies. We also performed meta-regressions to identify variables accounting for this heterogeneity across studies and we demonstrate that outcomes may depend on methodological aspects of studies, such as study design or the approach used to measure habitat preference and fitness. More research is needed for poorly studied regions and on a wider range of species before generalizations can be made on the role of urban areas for biodiversity conservation.

Optimal allocation in annual plants with density-dependent fitness

We study optimal two-sector (vegetative and reproductive) allocation models of annual plants in temporally variable environments that incorporate effects of density-dependent lifetime variability and juvenile mortality in a fitness function whose expected value is maximized. Only special cases of arithmetic and geometric mean maximizers have previously been considered in the literature, and we also allow a wider range of production functions with diminishing returns. The model predicts that the time of maturity is pushed to an earlier date as the correlation between individual lifetimes increases, and while optimal schedules are bang-bang at the extremes, the transition is mediated by schedules where vegetative growth is mixed with reproduction for a wide intermediate range. The mixed growth lasts longer when the production function is less concave allowing for better leveraging of plant size when generating seeds. Analytic estimates are obtained for the power means that interpolate between arithmetic and geometric mean and correspond to partially correlated lifetime distributions.

Towards a replicator dynamics model of age structured populations

We present a new modelling framework combining replicator dynamics, the standard model of frequency dependent selection, with an age-structured population model. The new framework allows for the modelling of populations consisting of competing strategies carried by individuals who change across their life cycle. Firstly the discretization of the McKendrick von Foerster model is derived. We show that the Euler–Lotka equation is satisfied when the new model reaches a steady state (i.e. stable frequencies between the age classes). This discretization consists of unit age classes where the timescale is chosen so that only a fraction of individuals play a single game round. This implies a linear dynamics and individuals not killed during the round are moved to the next age class; linearity means that the system is equivalent to a large Bernadelli–Lewis–Leslie matrix. Then we use the methodology of multipopulation games to derive two, mutually equivalent systems of equations. The first contains equations describing the evolution of the strategy frequencies in the whole population, completed by subsystems of equations describing the evolution of the age structure for each strategy. The second contains equations describing the changes of the general population’s age structure, completed with subsystems of equations describing the selection of the strategies within each age class. We then present the obtained system of replicator dynamics in the form of the mixed ODE-PDE system which is independent of the chosen timescale, and much simpler. The obtained results are illustrated by the example of the sex ratio model which shows that when different mortalities of the sexes are assumed, the sex ratio of 0.5 is obtained but that Fisher’s mechanism, driven by the reproductive value of the different sexes, is not in equilibrium.

Evolutionary bet-hedging in structured populations

As ecosystems evolve, species can become extinct due to fluctuations in the environment. This leads to the evolutionary adaption known as bet-hedging, where species hedge against these fluctuations to reduce their likelihood of extinction. Environmental variation can be either within or between generations. Previous work has shown that selection for bet-hedging against within-generational variation should not occur in large populations. However, this work has been limited by assumptions of well-mixed populations, whereas real populations usually have some degree of structure. Using the framework of evolutionary graph theory, we show that through adding competition structure to the population, within-generational variation can have a significant impact on the evolutionary process for any population size. This complements research using subdivided populations, which suggests that within-generational variation is important when local population sizes are small. Together, these conclusions provide evidence to support observations by some ecologists that are contrary to the widely held view that only between-generational environmental variation has an impact on natural selection. This provides theoretical justification for further empirical study into this largely unexplored area.

Replicator dynamics for the game theoretic selection models based on state

The paper presents an attempt to integrate the classical evolutionary game theory based on replicator dynamics and the state-based approach of Houston and McNamara. In the new approach, individuals have different heritable strategies; however, individuals carrying the same strategy can differ in terms of state, role or the situation in which they act. Thus, the classical replicator dynamics is completed by the additional subsystem of differential equations describing the dynamics of transitions between different states. In effect, the interactions described by game structure, in addition to the demographic payoffs (constituted by births and deaths), can lead to the change in state of the competing individuals. Special cases of reversible and irreversible incremental stage-structured models, where the state changes can describeenergy accumulation, developmental steps or aging, are derived for discrete and continuous versions. The new approach is illustrated using the example of the Owner-Intruder game with explicit dynamics of the role changes. The new model presents a generalization of the demographic version of the Hawk-Dove game,with the difference being that the opponents in the game are drawn from two separate subpopulations consisting of Owners and Intruders. Here, the Intruders check random nest sites and play the Hawk-Dove game with the Owner if they are occupied. Meanwhile, the Owners produce newborns that become Intruders, since they must find a free nest site to reproduce. An interesting feedback mechanism is produced via the fluxes of individuals between the different subpopulations. In addition, the population growth suppression mechanism resulting from the fixation Bourgeois strategy is analyzed.

Evaluating endoplasmic reticulum stress and unfolded protein response through the lens of ecology and evolution

Considerable progress has been made in understanding the physiological basis for variation in the life-history patterns of animals, particularly with regard to the roles of oxidative stress and hormonal regulation. However, an underappreciated and understudied area that could play a role in mediating inter- and intraspecific variation of life history is endoplasmic reticulum (ER) stress, and the resulting unfolded protein response (UPR^ER ). ER stress response and the UPR^ER maintain proteostasis in cells by reducing the intracellular load of secretory proteins and enhancing protein folding capacity or initiating apoptosis in cells that cannot recover. Proper modulation of the ER stress response and execution of the UPR^ER allow animals to respond to intracellular and extracellular stressors and adapt to constantly changing environments. ER stress responses are heritable and there is considerable individual variation in UPR^ER phenotype in animals, suggesting that ER stress and UPR^ER phenotype can be subjected to natural selection. The variation in UPR^ER phenotype presumably reflects the way animals respond to ER stress and environmental challenges. Most of what we know about ER stress and the UPR^ER in animals has either come from biomedical studies using cell culture or from experiments involving conventional laboratory or agriculturally important models that exhibit limited genetic diversity. Furthermore, these studies involve the assessment of experimentally induced qualitative changes in gene expression as opposed to the quantitative variations that occur in naturally existing populations. Almost all of these studies were conducted in controlled settings that are often quite different from the conditions animals experience in nature. Herein, we review studies that investigated ER stress and the UPR^ER in relation to key life-history traits including growth and development, reproduction, bioenergetics and physical performance, and ageing and senescence. We then ask if these studies can inform us about the role of ER stress and the UPR^ER in mediating the aforementioned life-history traits in free-living animals. We propose that there is a need to conduct experiments pertaining to ER stress and the UPR^ER in ecologically relevant settings, to characterize variation in ER stress and the UPR^ER in free-living animals, and to relate the observed variation to key life-history traits. We urge others to integrate multiple physiological systems and investigate how interactions between ER stress and oxidative stress shape life-history trade-offs in free-living animals.

Individuals' expected genetic contributions to future generations, reproductive value, and short-term metrics of fitness in free-living song sparrows (Melospiza melodia)

Appropriately defining and enumerating "fitness" is fundamental to explaining and predicting evolutionary dynamics. Yet, general theoretical concepts of fitness are often hard to translate into quantities that can be measured in wild populations experiencing complex environmental, demographic, genetic, and selective variation. Although the "fittest" entities might be widely understood to be those that ultimately leave most descendants at some future time, such long-term legacies can rarely be measured, impeding evaluation of the degree to which tractable short-term metrics of individual fitness could potentially serve as useful direct proxies. One opportunity for conceptual and empirical convergence stems from the principle of individual reproductive value (V i), here defined as the number of copies of each of an individual's alleles that is expected to be present in future generations given the individual's realized pedigree of descendants. As V i tightly predicts an individual's longer term genetic contribution, quantifying V i provides a tractable route to quantifying what, to date, has been an abstract theoretical fitness concept. We used complete pedigree data from free-living song sparrows (Melospiza melodia) to demonstrate that individuals' expected genetic contributions stabilize within an observed 20-year (i.e. approximately eight generation) time period, allowing estimation of individual V i. Considerable among-individual variation in V i was evident in both sexes. Standard metrics of individual lifetime fitness, comprising lifespan, lifetime reproductive success, and projected growth rate, typically explained less than half the variation. We thereby elucidate the degree to which fitness metrics observed on individuals concur with measures of longer term genetic contributions and consider the degree to which analyses of pedigree structure could provide useful complementary insights into evolutionary outcomes.

Extrinsic Mortality Can Shape Life-History Traits, Including Senescence

The Williams' hypothesis is one of the most widely known ideas in life history evolution. It states that higher adult mortality should lead to faster and/or earlier senescence. Theoretically derived gradients, however, do not support this prediction. Increased awareness of this fact has caused a crisis of misinformation among theorists and empirical ecologists. We resolve this crisis by outlining key issues in the measurement of fitness, assumptions of density dependence, and their effect on extrinsic mortality. The classic gradients apply only to a narrow range of ecological contexts where density-dependence is either absent or present but with unrealistic stipulations. Re-deriving the classic gradients, using a more appropriate measure of fitness and incorporating density, shows that broad ecological contexts exist where Williams' hypothesis is supported.

Feedback between environment and traits under selection in a seasonal environment: consequences for experimental evolution

Batch cultures are frequently used in experimental evolution to study the dynamics of adaptation. Although they are generally considered to simply drive a growth rate increase, other fitness components can also be selected for. Indeed, recurrent batches form a seasonal environment where different phases repeat periodically and different traits can be under selection in the different seasons. Moreover, the system being closed, organisms may have a strong impact on the environment. Thus, the study of adaptation should take into account the environment and eco-evolutionary feedbacks. Using data from an experimental evolution on yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae, we developed a mathematical model to understand which traits are under selection, and what is the impact of the environment for selection in a batch culture. We showed that two kinds of traits are under selection in seasonal environments: life-history traits, related to growth and mortality, but also transition traits, related to the ability to react to environmental changes. The impact of environmental conditions can be summarized by the length of the different seasons which weight selection on each trait: the longer a season is, the higher the selection on associated traits. Since phenotypes drive season length, eco-evolutionary feedbacks emerge. Our results show how evolution in successive batches can affect season lengths and strength of selection on different traits.

Interaction rates, vital rates, background fitness and replicator dynamics: how to embed evolutionary game structure into realistic population dynamics

In this paper we are concerned with how aggregated outcomes of individual behaviours, during interactions with other individuals (games) or with environmental factors, determine the vital rates constituting the growth rate of the population. This approach needs additional elements, namely the rates of event occurrence (interaction rates). Interaction rates describe the distribution of the interaction events in time, which seriously affects the population dynamics, as is shown in this paper. This leads to the model of a population of individuals playing different games, where focal game affected by the considered trait can be extracted from the general model, and the impact on the dynamics of other events (which is not neutral) can be described by an average background fertility and mortality. This leads to a distinction between two types of background fitness, strategically neutral elements of the focal games (correlated with the focal game events) and the aggregated outcomes of other interactions (independent of the focal game). The new approach is useful for clarification of the biological meaning of concepts such as weak selection. Results are illustrated by a Hawk-Dove example.

Generation time and fitness tradeoffs during the evolution of multicellularity

The evolution of multicellular organisms from their unicellular ancestors is an example of an evolutionary transition in individuality (ETI), i.e. a change in the units of selection and adaptation. The theory of ETIs poses particular challenges because, by definition, key theoretical constructs such as fitness are shifting during an ETI. Past work emphasized the importance of life history tradeoffs during ETIs in which lower level units form groups and become individuals at a higher level. In particular, it has been hypothesized that the convexity of the lower-level tradeoff between viability and fecundity changes with group size and determines the optimality of lower-level specialization in the fitness components of the group. This is important because lower-level specialization is a key indicator of higher-level individuality. Here we show that increasing generation time can increase the convexity of the lower-level viability-fecundity tradeoff. This effect is a novel hypothesis for the positive association between cell-group size and cellular specialization in a major model system for ETIs, the volvocine algae. The pattern in this clade is thought to be an example of a more general size-complexity rule. Our hypothesis is that larger groups have longer generation times and longer generation times lead to more convex lower-level viability-fecundity tradeoffs, which could account for specialization being optimal only in larger cell groups (colonies). We discuss the robustness of this effect to various changes in the assumptions of our model. Our work is important for the study of ETIs in general because viability and fecundity are fundamental components of fitness in all systems and because generation time is expected to be changing during many ETIs.

Experimental Evolution with Caenorhabditis Nematodes

The hermaphroditic nematode Caenorhabditis elegans has been one of the primary model systems in biology since the 1970s, but only within the last two decades has this nematode also become a useful model for experimental evolution. Here, we outline the goals and major foci of experimental evolution with C. elegans and related species, such as C. briggsae and C. remanei, by discussing the principles of experimental design, and highlighting the strengths and limitations of Caenorhabditis as model systems. We then review three exemplars of Caenorhabditis experimental evolution studies, underlining representative evolution experiments that have addressed the: (1) maintenance of genetic variation; (2) role of natural selection during transitions from outcrossing to selfing, as well as the maintenance of mixed breeding modes during evolution; and (3) evolution of phenotypic plasticity and its role in adaptation to variable environments, including host-pathogen coevolution. We conclude by suggesting some future directions for which experimental evolution with Caenorhabditis would be particularly informative.

Evolution of alternative insect life histories in stochastic seasonal environments

Deterministic seasonality can explain the evolution of alternative life history phenotypes (i.e., life history polyphenism) expressed in different generations emerging within the same year. However, the influence of stochastic variation on the expression of such life history polyphenisms in seasonal environments is insufficiently understood. Here, we use insects as a model and explore (1) the effects of stochastic variation in seasonality and (2) the life cycle on the degree of life history differentiation among the alternative developmental pathways of direct development and diapause (overwintering), and (3) the evolution of phenology. With numerical simulation, we determine the values of development (growth) time, growth rate, body size, reproductive effort, adult life span, and fecundity in both the overwintering and directly developing generations that maximize geometric mean fitness. The results suggest that natural selection favors the expression of alternative life histories in the alternative developmental pathways even when there is stochastic variation in seasonality, but that trait differentiation is affected by the developmental stage that overwinters. Increasing environmental unpredictability induced a switch to a bet‐hedging type of life history strategy, which is consistent with general life history theory. Bet‐hedging appeared in our study system as reduced expression of the direct development phenotype, with associated changes in life history phenotypes, because the fitness value of direct development is highly variable in uncertain environments. Our main result is that seasonality itself is a key factor promoting the evolution of seasonally polyphenic life histories but that environmental stochasticity may modulate the expression of life history phenotypes.

Invasion fitness, inclusive fitness, and reproductive numbers in heterogeneous populations

How should fitness be measured to determine which phenotype or "strategy" is uninvadable when evolution occurs in a group-structured population subject to local demographic and environmental heterogeneity? Several fitness measures, such as basic reproductive number, lifetime dispersal success of a local lineage, or inclusive fitness have been proposed to address this question, but the relationships between them and their generality remains unclear. Here, we ascertain uninvadability (all mutant strategies always go extinct) in terms of the asymptotic per capita number of mutant copies produced by a mutant lineage arising as a single copy in a resident population ("invasion fitness"). We show that from invasion fitness uninvadability is equivalently characterized by at least three conceptually distinct fitness measures: (i) lineage fitness, giving the average individual fitness of a randomly sampled mutant lineage member; (ii) inclusive fitness, giving a reproductive value weighted average of the direct fitness costs and relatedness weighted indirect fitness benefits accruing to a randomly sampled mutant lineage member; and (iii) basic reproductive number (and variations thereof) giving lifetime success of a lineage in a single group, and which is an invasion fitness proxy. Our analysis connects approaches that have been deemed different, generalizes the exact version of inclusive fitness to class-structured populations, and provides a biological interpretation of natural selection on a mutant allele under arbitrary strength of selection.

Facilitation as Attenuating of Environmental Stress among Structured Microbial Populations

There is currently an intense debate in microbial societies on whether evolution in complex communities is driven by competition or cooperation. Since Darwin, competition for scarce food resources has been considered the main ecological interaction shaping population dynamics and community structure both in vivo and in vitro. However, facilitation may be widespread across several animal and plant species. This could also be true in microbial strains growing under environmental stress. Pure and mixed strains of Serratia marcescens and Candida rugosa were grown in mineral culture media containing phenol. Growth rates were estimated as the angular coefficients computed from linearized growth curves. Fitness index was estimated as the quotient between growth rates computed for lineages grown in isolation and in mixed cultures. The growth rates were significantly higher in associated cultures than in pure cultures and fitness index was greater than 1 for both microbial species showing that the interaction between Serratia marcescens and Candida rugosa yielded more efficient phenol utilization by both lineages. This result corroborates the hypothesis that facilitation between microbial strains can increase their fitness and performance in environmental bioremediation.

A new metric of inclusive fitness predicts the human mortality profile

Biological species have evolved characteristic patterns of age-specific mortality across their life spans. If these mortality profiles are shaped by natural selection they should reflect underlying variation in the fitness effect of mortality with age. Direct fitness models, however, do not accurately predict the mortality profiles of many species. For several species, including humans, mortality rates vary considerably before and after reproductive ages, during life-stages when no variation in direct fitness is possible. Variation in mortality rates at these ages may reflect indirect effects of natural selection acting through kin. To test this possibility we developed a new two-variable measure of inclusive fitness, which we term the extended genomic output or EGO. Using EGO, we estimate the inclusive fitness effect of mortality at different ages in a small hunter-gatherer population with a typical human mortality profile. EGO in this population predicts 90% of the variation in age-specific mortality. This result represents the first empirical measurement of inclusive fitness of a trait in any species. It shows that the pattern of human survival can largely be explained by variation in the inclusive fitness cost of mortality at different ages. More generally, our approach can be used to estimate the inclusive fitness of any trait or genotype from population data on birth dates and relatedness.

Experimental determination of invasive fitness in Caenorhabditis elegans

Estimation of fitness is a key step in experimental evolution studies. However, no established methods currently exist to specifically estimate how successful new alleles are in invading populations. The main reason is that most assays do not accurately reflect the randomness associated with the first stages of the invasion, when invaders are rare and extinctions are frequent. In this protocol, I describe how such experiments can be done in an effective way. By using the nematode model, Caenorhabditis elegans, a large number of invasion experiments are set up, whereby invading individuals carrying a visual marker are introduced into populations in very low numbers. The number of invaders counted in consecutive generations, together with the number of extinctions, is then used in the context of individual-based computer simulations to provide likelihood (Lk) estimates for fitness. This protocol can take up to five generations of experimental invasions and a few hours of computer processing time.

Frequency-dependent assistance as a way out of competitive exclusion between two strains of an emerging virus

Biological invasions are the main causes of emerging viral diseases and they favour the co-occurrence of multiple species or strains in the same environment. Depending on the nature of the interaction, co-occurrence can lead to competitive exclusion or coexistence. The successive fortuitous introductions of two strains of Tomato yellow leaf curl virus (TYLCV-Mld and TYLCV-IL) in Réunion Island provided an ideal opportunity to study the invasion of, and competition between, these worldwide emerging pathogens. During a 7-year field survey, we observed a displacement of the resident TYLCV-Mld by the newcomer TYLCV-IL, with TYLCV-Mld remaining mostly in co-infected plants. To understand the factors associated with this partial displacement, biological traits related to fitness were measured. The better ecological aptitude of TYLCV-IL in single infections was demonstrated, which explains its rapid spread. However, we demonstrate that the relative fitness of virus strains can drastically change between single infections and co-infections. An epidemiological model parametrized with our experimental data predicts that the two strains will coexist in the long run through assistance by the fitter strain. This rare case of unilateral facilitation between two pathogens leads to frequency-dependent selection and maintenance of the less fit strain.

Ecological theatre and the evolutionary game: how environmental and demographic factors determine payoffs in evolutionary games

In the standard approach to evolutionary games and replicator dynamics, differences in fitness can be interpreted as an excess from the mean Malthusian growth rate in the population. In the underlying reasoning, related to an analysis of "costs" and "benefits", there is a silent assumption that fitness can be described in some type of units. However, in most cases these units of measure are not explicitly specified. Then the question arises: are these theories testable? How can we measure "benefit" or "cost"? A natural language, useful for describing and justifying comparisons of strategic "cost" versus "benefits", is the terminology of demography, because the basic events that shape the outcome of natural selection are births and deaths. In this paper, we present the consequences of an explicit analysis of births and deaths in an evolutionary game theoretic framework. We will investigate different types of mortality pressures, their combinations and the possibility of trade-offs between mortality and fertility. We will show that within this new approach it is possible to model how strictly ecological factors such as density dependence and additive background fitness, which seem neutral in classical theory, can affect the outcomes of the game. We consider the example of the Hawk-Dove game, and show that when reformulated in terms of our new approach new details and new biological predictions are produced.

Success-biased social learning: cultural and evolutionary dynamics

Success bias is a social learning strategy whereby learners tend to acquire the cultural variants of successful individuals. I develop a general model of success-biased social learning for discrete cultural traits with stochastic payoffs, and investigate its dynamics when only two variants are present. I find that success bias inherently favors rare variants, and consequently performs worse than unbiased imitation (i.e. random copying) when success payoffs are at least mildly stochastic and the optimal variant is common. Because of this weakness, success bias fails to replace unbiased imitation in an evolutionary model when selection is fairly weak or when the environment is relatively stable, and sometimes fails to invade at all. I briefly discuss the optimal strength of success bias, the complicated nature of defining success in social learning contexts, and the value of variant frequency as an important source of information to social learners. I conclude with predictions regarding the prevalence of success bias in different behavioral domains.

Stochasticity in reproductive opportunity and the evolution of egg limitation in insects

Is reproduction by adult female insects limited by the finite time available to locate hosts (time limitation) or by the finite supply of eggs (egg limitation)? An influential model predicted that stochasticity in reproductive opportunity favors elevated fecundity, rendering egg limitation sufficiently rare that its importance would be greatly diminished. Here, I use models to explore how stochasticity shapes fecundity, the likelihood of egg limitation, and the ecological importance of egg limitation. The models make three predictions. First, whereas spatially stochastic environments favor increased fecundity, temporally stochastic environments favor increases, decreases, or intermediate maxima in fecundity, depending on egg costs. Second, even when spatially or temporally stochastic environments favor life histories with less-frequent egg limitation, stochasticity still increases the proportion of all eggs laid in the population that is laid by females destined to become egg limited. This counterintuitive result is explained by noting that stochasticity concentrates reproduction in the hands of a few females that are likely to become egg limited. Third, spatially or temporally stochastic environments amplify the constraints imposed by time and eggs on total reproduction by the population. I conclude that both egg and time constraints are fundamental in shaping insect reproductive behavior and population dynamics in stochastic environments.

Genomic sweep and potential genetic rescue during limiting environmental conditions in an isolated wolf population

Genetic rescue, in which the introduction of one or more unrelated individuals into an inbred population results in the reduction of detrimental genetic effects and an increase in one or more vital rates, is a potentially important management tool for mitigating adverse effects of inbreeding. We used molecular techniques to document the consequences of a male wolf (Canis lupus) that immigrated, on its own, across Lake Superior ice to the small, inbred wolf population in Isle Royale National Park. The immigrant's fitness so exceeded that of native wolves that within 2.5 generations, he was related to every individual in the population and his ancestry constituted 56 per cent of the population, resulting in a selective sweep of the total genome. In other words, all the male ancestry (50% of the total ancestry) descended from this immigrant, plus 6 per cent owing to the success of some of his inbred offspring. The immigration event occurred in an environment where space was limiting (i.e. packs occupied all available territories) and during a time when environmental conditions had deteriorated (i.e. wolves' prey declined). These conditions probably explain why the immigration event did not obviously improve the population's demography (e.g. increased population numbers or growth rate). Our results show that the beneficial effects of gene flow may be substantial and quickly manifest, short-lived under some circumstances, and how the demographic benefits of genetic rescue might be masked by environmental conditions.

Sexual conflict and the gender load: correlated evolution between population fitness and sexual dimorphism in seed beetles

Although males and females share much of the same genome, selection is often distinct in the two sexes. Sexually antagonistic loci will in theory cause a gender load in populations, because sex-specific selection on a given trait in one sex will compromise the adaptive evolution of the same trait in the other sex. However, it is currently not clear whether such intralocus sexual conflict (ISC) represents a transient evolutionary state, where conflict is rapidly resolved by the evolution of sexual dimorphism (SD), or whether it is a more chronic impediment to adaptation. All else being equal, ISC should manifest itself as correlated evolution between population fitness and SD in traits expressed in both sexes. However, comparative tests of this prediction are problematic and have been unfeasible. Here, we assess the effects of ISC by comparing fitness and SD across distinct laboratory populations of seed beetles that should be well adapted to a shared environment. We show that SD in juvenile development time, a key life-history trait with a history of sexually antagonistic selection in this model system, is positively related to fitness. This effect is due to a correlated evolution between population fitness and development time that is positive in females but negative in males. Loosening the genetic bind between the sexes has evidently allowed the sexes to approach their distinct adaptive peaks.

Flowering life-history strategies differ between the native and introduced ranges of a monocarpic perennial

Life-history theory makes several key predictions about reproductive strategies on the basis of demographic vital rates, particularly the relationship between juvenile and adult survival. Two such predictions concern the optimal time to begin reproducing and whether semelparity or iteroparity is favored. I tested these life-history predictions and explored how they might differ between the native and introduced ranges of the monocarpic perennial Cynoglossum officinale. I first compared vital rates between ranges. I then used these vital rates to parameterize integral projection models to calculate the population growth rate (lambda) and net reproductive rate (R(0)) as surrogates for fitness to compare strategies within and between ranges. I found that both survival and growth were higher in the introduced range, where size at flowering was larger and iteroparity was much more common than in the native range. The observed and predicted strategies for size at flowering were similar in the native range. In the introduced range, however, even though plants flowered at a larger size, the observed size was not as large as the optimum predicted by lambda or the higher optimum predicted by R(0). Iteroparity conferred higher fitness in both ranges, as measured by both fitness metrics, suggesting that severe constraints, potentially specialist herbivores, prevent this strategy from becoming more common in the native range.

Unifying Ecological and Evolutionary Dynamics Through Experimental Stochastic Demography

Ecological and evolutionary dynamics depend upon variation in birth and death rates. Consequently characterizing birth and death rates, and identifying factors that explain variation in these rates, should be the foundation of population and evolutionary ecology. Given the central role of birth and death, it is perhaps surprising that relatively few population biologists apply the most recent demographic approaches to their research. This may be because demography is seen as little more than accounting, and therefore dull, or because stochastic demography is seen as mathematically challenging. It is our belief that ecologists and evolutionary biologists have much to gain through increased mastery of stochastic demography. Its applications could push forward our understanding of eco-evolutionary dynamics in stochastic environments, and the outcome could further the unification of ecology and evolution. In this essay we briefly explain why mastering demographic approaches should be a desirable objective for any evolutionary ecologist. We start by describing some aspects and insights gained through application of demographic methods, before suggesting an area where we believe application could prove insightful.