Incidence and risk factors for surveillance failure in patients with regular hepatocellular carcinoma surveillance

Evaluation of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Surveillance with Contrast-enhanced MRI in a High-Risk Western European Cohort

AIM

To investigate the utilization of MRI using a MRI liver protocol with extracellular contrast-enhanced series for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) surveillance in high-risk patients.

METHODS

Consecutive high-risk patients of a western European cohort who underwent repeated liver MRI for HCC screening were included. Lesions were registered according to the Liver Reporting & Data System (LIRADS) 2018. HCC was staged as very early stage HCC (BCLC stage 0) and more advanced stages of HCC (BCLC stage A-D). Differences in time interval between MRI's for BCLC stage 0 and stage A-D were calculated with the Mann-Whitney U test. The HCC cumulative incidence at one-, three- and five years was calculated with the Kaplan Meier estimator.

RESULTS

From 2010 to 2019 a total of 240 patients were included (71% male; median age: 57 years; IQR: 50-64 years) with 1350 MRI's. Most patients (83 %) had cirrhosis with hepatitis C as the most common underlying cause. Patients underwent on average four MRI's (IQR: 3-7). Forty-two patients (17.5%) developed HCC (52 HCC lesions: 43 LIRADS-5, eight LIRADS-4, and one LIRADS-TIV). Eighteen patients (43%) had BCLC stage 0 HCC with a significant shorter screening time interval (10 months; IQR: 6-21) compared to patients with BCLC stage A-D (21 months; IQR: 10-32) (p = 0.03). Thirty seven percent of patients with a LIRADS-3 lesion (n=43) showed HCC development within twelve months (median: 7.4 months). One, three- and five-year HCC cumulative incidence in cirrhotic patients was 1%, 10% and 17%, respectively.

CONCLUSION

High-risk patients who underwent surveillance with contrast-enhanced MRI developed HCC in 17.5 % during a follow up period of over 4 years median. Very early stage HCC was seen in compensated cirrhosis after a median time interval of 10 months. Later stages of HCC were related to prolonged screening time interval (median 21 months).

Inadequate Ultrasound Examination in Hepatocellular Carcinoma Surveillance: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

We aimed to systematically evaluate the incidence of inadequate US in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) surveillance and determine the risk factors. Original studies reporting the incidence or risk factors for inadequate US were identified in MEDLINE, EMBASE, and the Cochrane database. The pooled incidence of inadequate US was calculated using a random effects model, and subgroup analyses were performed. The pooled odds ratio (OR) was calculated for each risk factor for inadequate US. Six eligible articles were identified from 756 screened articles (4250 patients). The pooled incidence of inadequate US was 21.5%. Significantly higher rates of inadequate US were noted in studies including patients with and without hepatic observations compared with those evaluating only patients with hepatic observations (23.2% vs. 18.8%), studies using US alone compared with US plus alpha-fetoprotein (28.0% vs. 20.8%), and those using pathology and imaging as a reference standard compared with imaging only (23.2% vs. 17.9%). Nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (OR = 2.3 (1.07–4.84)), Child–Pugh B cirrhosis (OR = 2.2 (1.10–4.37)), and high body mass index (OR = 2.2 (1.12–4.24)) were significant risk factors for inadequate US (p ≤ 0.04). In patients at risk of HCC, 21.5% of US surveillance was inadequate. An alternative surveillance modality might be considered in patients with risk factors.

Ultrasound or Sectional Imaging Techniques as Screening Tools for Hepatocellular Carcinoma: Fall Forward or Move Forward?

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is probably the epitome of a screening target, with a well-defined high-risk population, accessible screening methods, and multiple curative-intent treatments available for early disease. Per major societies guideline consensus, biannual ultrasound (US) surveillance of the at-risk patients is the current standard of care worldwide. Yet, despite its documented success in the past decades, this standard is far from perfect. While the whole community is working to further tighten the knots, a worrying number of cases still slip through this safety net. Consequently, these patients lose their chance to a curative solution which leads to a high disease burden with disproportionate mortality. While US will probably remain the fundamental staple in the screening strategy, key questions are seeking better answers. How can its caveats be addressed, and the technique be improved? When are further steps needed? How to increase accuracy without giving up on accessibility? This narrative review discusses the place of US surveillance in the bigger HCC picture, trying to navigate through its strengths and limits based on the most recent available evidence.

Current status of image-based surveillance in hepatocellular carcinoma

Although the overall prognosis of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) remains poor, curative treatment may improve the survival of patients diagnosed at an early stage through surveillance. Accordingly, ultrasonography (US)-based HCC surveillance programs proposed in international society guidelines are now being implemented and regularly updated based on the latest evidence to improve their efficacy. Recently, other imaging modalities such as magnetic resonance imaging have shown potential as alternative surveillance tools based on individualized risk stratification. In this review article, we describe the current status of US-based surveillance for HCC and summarize the supporting evidence. We also discuss alternative surveillance imaging modalities that are currently being studied to validate their diagnostic performance and cost-effectiveness.

A Comparison of Biannual Two-Phase Low-Dose Liver CT and US for HCC Surveillance in a Group at High Risk of HCC Development

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Biannual ultrasonography (US) is a current recommendation for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) surveillance in a high-risk group. The sensitivity of US, however, has been low in patients with a high risk of developing HCC. We aimed to compare sensitivity for HCC of biannual US and two-phase low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) in patients with a high risk of HCC.

METHODS

In this prospective single-arm study, participants with an annual risk of HCC greater than 5% (based on a risk index of ≥2.33) and who did not have a history of HCC were enrolled from November 2014 to July 2016. Participants underwent paired biannual US and two-phase LDCT 1-3 times. Two-phase LDCT included arterial and 3-min delayed phases. The sensitivity, specificity, and positive predictive value of HCC detection using US and two-phase LDCT were compared using a composite algorithm as a standard of reference.

RESULTS

Of the 139 enrolled participants, 137 underwent both the biannual US and two-phase LDCT at least once and had follow-up images. Among them, 27 cases of HCC (mean size: 14 ± 4 mm) developed in 24 participants over 1.5 years. Two-phase LDCT showed a significantly higher sensitivity (83.3% [20/24] vs. 29.2% [7/24], p < 0.001) and specificity (95.6% [108/113] vs. 87.7% [99/113], p =0.03) than US. A false-positive result was reported in 14 participants at US and 5 participants at two-phase LDCT, resulting in a significantly higher positive predictive value of two-phase LDCT (33.3% [7/21] vs. 80% [20/25], p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with a risk index ≥2.33 showed a high annual incidence of HCC development in our study, and two-phase LDCT showed significantly higher sensitivity and specificity for HCC detection than US.

Annual contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging is highly effective in the surveillance of hepatocellular carcinoma among cirrhotic patients

OBJECTIVES

Biannual ultrasonography, a globally accepted surveillance method, has low sensitivity in detecting early-stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). We aimed to investigate the effectiveness of a surveillance strategy using annual contrast-enhanced MRI to detect HCCs at early-stage.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We reviewed the data of 294 patients with consistent annual contrast-enhanced MRI and biannual alpha fetoprotein (AFP) surveillance between 2008 and 2017. Patients were stratified for HCC risk as low-intermediate-high risk group using Toronto risk score. HCCs were classified according to Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer staging system.

RESULTS

Thirty-five (11.9%) HCCs were detected with annual surveillance MRI. Of those, 30 (85.8%) were early-stage and 15 (42.9%) were very early-stage. The majority of patients (82.9%) with surveillance detected HCC were high risk at the entry. MRI had sensitivity of 83.3 and 80% with a specificity of 95.4 and 91.4%, for detecting early and very early-stage HCC, respectively. Addition of AFP to MRI displayed similar sensitivity and specificity rates to detect early and very early HCCs. The area under the curve of MRI alone and combination with AFP was not statistically different (Any-HCC: 0.905 vs. 0.924; Early-HCC: 0.853 vs. 0.885; Very early-HCC: 0.838 vs. 0.885, respectively, all P values >0.2).

CONCLUSION

Annual MRI strategy demonstrated a satisfactory performance in the surveillance of HCC, in terms of detecting most of the lesions in earlier curable stages and indicating high sensitivity with no additional benefit of biannual AFP. New risk stratified screening algorithms may further increase the yield of HCC surveillance among cirrhotic patients.

Failure of hepatocellular carcinoma surveillance: inadequate echogenic window and macronodular parenchyma as potential culprits

Purpose

The purpose of this study was to examine the associations between ultrasonography (US) quality and clinical outcomes in patients undergoing surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma.

Methods

Between 2008 and 2013, 155 patients were diagnosed with liver cancer during regular surveillance by positive US results (US group, n=82) or by computed tomography (CT) or magnetic resonance image (MRI) scanning as alternative modalities (CT/MRI group, n=73). The quality of the echogenic window, macronodularity of the liver parenchyma, and occurrence of surveillance failure (initial tumor diagnosis beyond the Milan criteria or at Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer stage B or C) were evaluated. Overall survival was compared according to whether surveillance failure occurred.

Results

The patients in the CT/MRI group with negative US results had a higher proportion of parenchymal macronodularity on US than those in the US group (79.5% vs. 63.4%, P=0.028). Surveillance failure tended to be more common in the US group than in the CT/MRI group (40.2% vs. 26.0% by the BCLC staging system [P=0.061]). In the US group, surveillance failure occurred more frequently when the echogenic window was inadequate (50.0% vs. 19.4% by the Milan criteria [P=0.046]). Significantly poorer 5-year overall survival was associated with surveillance failure (P≤0.001).

Conclusion

Parenchymal macronodularity hindered the detection of early-stage tumors during US surveillance. Using an alternative imaging modality may help prevent surveillance failure in patients with macronodular parenchyma on US. Supplemental surveillance strategies than US may also be necessary when the echogenic window is inadequate.

Noncontrast magnetic resonance imaging versus ultrasonography for hepatocellular carcinoma surveillance (MIRACLE-HCC): study protocol for a prospective randomized trial

BACKGROUND

Biannual ultrasound (US)-with or without alpha-fetoprotein (AFP)-is recommended by current guidelines for the surveillance of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, the inadequate sensitivity of US has been a concern. Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is known to have high sensitivity in detecting hepatic malignancies, even without contrast enhancement. The purpose of our study is to compare US with noncontrast (unenhanced) MRI for HCC surveillance of high-risk patients.

METHODS/DESIGN

MIRACLE-HCC (usefulness of noncontrast MagnetIc Resonance imAging versus nonContrast ultrasonography for surveiLlancE of HepatoCellular Carcinoma) is a prospective, single-center, nonblinded, balanced-randomized, parallel-group study. This study was approved by our institutional review board, and informed consent will be obtained from all participating patients. All patients with compensated liver cirrhosis will undergo noncontrast US or MRI, with serum AFP testing every 6 months. If a suspicious lesion is newly detected, or if the serum AFP level is elevated in an increasing trend for two consecutive tests, dynamic contrast-enhanced imaging will be performed to confirm the diagnosis. The primary endpoints are detection rates of very early or early stage HCC, stage distribution at the initial diagnosis, and false positive referral rates, which will be compared using Fisher's exact or chi-square tests. The study will include 416 patients in a tertiary academic medical center in South Korea.

DISCUSSION

MIRACLE-HCC is the first prospective randomized trial to compare the effectiveness of noncontrast MRI and noncontrast US in the surveillance of HCC in at-risk patients. The results of this trial will show whether noncontrast MRI surveillance is superior to noncontrast US surveillance in the early detection of HCC. The trial will also determine whether there are fewer false referrals with noncontrast MRI than with noncontrast US and, eventually, whether there is improvement in the overall survival of HCC patients.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

The date of trial registration (ClincalTrials.gov: NCT02514434 ) for this study is July 23, 2015. Enrollment of participants was finished in November 2017. No authors have relationships, conditions, or circumstances that present potential conflicts of interest.

Comparison of biannual ultrasonography and annual non-contrast liver magnetic resonance imaging as surveillance tools for hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with liver cirrhosis (MAGNUS-HCC): a study protocol

Background

Ultrasonography (US) is recommended as a standard surveillance tool for patients with a high risk of developing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, the low sensitivity of US for small HCC can lead to surveillance failure, resulting in advanced stage tumor presentations. For the early detection of HCC in high-risk patients and to improve survival and prognosis, a new efficient imaging tool with a high sensitivity for HCC detection is needed. The purpose of this study is to evaluate and compare the feasibility and efficacy of non-contrast magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) with US as a surveillance tool for HCC in patients with liver cirrhosis.

Methods

MAGNUS-HCC is a prospective, multicenter clinical trial with a crossover design for a single arm of patients. This study was approved by six Institutional Review Boards, and informed consent was obtained from all participants. All patients will undergo liver US every 6 months and non-contrast liver MRI every 12 months during a follow-up period of 3 years. If a focal liver lesion suspected of harboring HCC is detected, dynamic liver computed tomography (CT) will be performed to confirm the diagnosis. After the last surveillance round, patients without suspicion of HCC or who are not diagnosed with HCC will be evaluated with a dynamic liver CT to exclude false-negative findings. The primary endpoint is to compare the rate of detection of HCC by US examinations performed at 6-month intervals with that of yearly non-contrast liver MRI studies during a 3-year follow-up. The secondary endpoint is the survival of the patients who developed HCC within the 3-year follow-up period.

Discussion

MAGNUS-HCC is the first study to compare the feasibility of non-contrast MRI with US as a surveillance tool for the detection of HCC in high-risk patients. We anticipate that the evidence presented in this study will establish the efficacy of non-contrast MRI as a surveillance tool for HCC in high-risk patients.

Trial registration

The date of trial registration (NCT02551250) in this study was September 15, 2015, and follow-up is still ongoing.