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Zou Y, Yue M, Jia L, Wang Y, Chen H, Zhang A, Xia X, Liu W, Yu R, Yang S, Huang P. Accurate prediction of HCC risk after SVR in patients with hepatitis C cirrhosis based on longitudinal data. BMC Cancer 2023; 23:1147. [PMID: 38007418 PMCID: PMC10676612 DOI: 10.1186/s12885-023-11628-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/28/2023] [Accepted: 11/09/2023] [Indexed: 11/27/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Most existing predictive models of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk after sustained virologic response (SVR) are built on data collected at baseline and therefore have limited accuracy. The current study aimed to construct an accurate predictive model incorporating longitudinal data using a novel modeling strategy. The predictive performance of the longitudinal model was also compared with a baseline model. METHODS A total of 400 patients with HCV-related cirrhosis who achieved SVR with direct-acting antivirals (DAA) were enrolled in the study. Patients were randomly divided into a training set (70%) and a validation set (30%). Informative features were extracted from the longitudinal variables and then put into the random survival forest (RSF) to develop the longitudinal model. A baseline model including the same variables was built for comparison. RESULTS During a median follow-up time of approximately 5 years, 25 patients (8.9%) in the training set and 11 patients (9.2%) in the validation set developed HCC. The areas under the receiver-operating characteristics curves (AUROC) for the longitudinal model were 0.9507 (0.8838-0.9997), 0.8767 (0.6972,0.9918), and 0.8307 (0.6941,0.9993) for 1-, 2- and 3-year risk prediction, respectively. The brier scores of the longitudinal model were also relatively low for the 1-, 2- and 3-year risk prediction (0.0283, 0.0561, and 0.0501, respectively). In contrast, the baseline model only achieved mediocre AUROCs of around 0.6 (0.6113, 0.6213, and 0.6480, respectively). CONCLUSIONS Our longitudinal model yielded accurate predictions of HCC risk in patients with HCV-relate cirrhosis, outperforming the baseline model. Our model can provide patients with valuable prognosis information and guide the intensity of surveillance in clinical practice.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yanzheng Zou
- Department of Epidemiology, Center for Global Health, School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, 211166, China
| | - Ming Yue
- Department of Infectious Diseases, The First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, China
| | - Linna Jia
- Department of Epidemiology, Center for Global Health, School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, 211166, China
| | - Yifan Wang
- Department of Infectious Disease, Jurong Hospital Affiliated to Jiangsu University, Jurong, China
| | - Hongbo Chen
- Department of Infectious Disease, Jurong Hospital Affiliated to Jiangsu University, Jurong, China
| | - Amei Zhang
- Faculty of Life Science and Technology, Kunming University of Science and Technology, Yunnan, China
| | - Xueshan Xia
- Faculty of Life Science and Technology, Kunming University of Science and Technology, Yunnan, China
- Kunming Medical University, Kunming, China
| | - Wei Liu
- Department of Epidemiology, Center for Global Health, School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, 211166, China
- Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing, China
| | - Rongbin Yu
- Department of Epidemiology, Center for Global Health, School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, 211166, China.
| | - Sheng Yang
- Department of Biostatistics, Center for Global Health, School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, 211166, China.
| | - Peng Huang
- Department of Epidemiology, Center for Global Health, School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, 211166, China.
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Zou Y, Yue M, Jia L, Wang Y, Chen H, Wang Y, Zhang M, Feng Y, Yu R, Yang S, Huang P. Repeated Measurement of FIB-4 to Predict Long-Term Risk of HCC Development Up to 10 Years After SVR. J Hepatocell Carcinoma 2022; 9:1433-1443. [PMID: 36606114 PMCID: PMC9809166 DOI: 10.2147/jhc.s389874] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/14/2022] [Accepted: 12/20/2022] [Indexed: 12/31/2022] Open
Abstract
Purpose It is unclear whether and how the long-term risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) will change in hepatitis C virus (HCV) infected patients who have reached sustained virologic response (SVR) with direct-acting antivirals (DAA). In this study, we assessed the long-term risk of HCC up to 10 years after SVR using fibrosis 4 score (FIB-4) and its dynamic changes. Patients and Methods A total of 701 DAA-treated patients who achieved SVR between January 2012 to October 2020 were enrolled in the study. The FIB-4 score of each patient was measured at the date of SVR and each follow-up visit annually. Patients were followed until December 31, 2021, with the longest follow-up time being 9.82 years. Results Following SVR, 27 cases of HCC were observed. The annual incidence rate of HCC remained stable with no obvious downward trend. Patients with a FIB-4 >3.25 at baseline or anytime during follow-up were at a higher risk of developing HCC than those whose FIB-4 remained below 3.25. Patients with cirrhosis and patients with no cirrhosis but a FIB-4 >3.25 were at higher risk of developing HCC than patients with no cirrhosis and a FIB-4 ≦3.25. Conclusion FIB-4 >3.25 measured at SVR or any time post-SVR was associated with HCC risks. The repeated measurement of FIB-4 revealed a better predictive ability of HCC risks than the simple measurement of FIB-4 at baseline. The additional stratification of patients by combining FIB-4 and cirrhosis leads to more accurately identifying high-risk patients. Surveillance of HCC is recommended for virologically cured patients with a FIB-4 >3.25 at SVR or anytime afterward and patients diagnosed with cirrhosis.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yanzheng Zou
- Department of Epidemiology, Center for Global Health, School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, People’s Republic of China
| | - Ming Yue
- Department of Infectious Diseases, The First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, People’s Republic of China
| | - Linna Jia
- Department of Epidemiology, Center for Global Health, School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, People’s Republic of China
| | - Yidi Wang
- Department of Epidemiology, Center for Global Health, School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, People’s Republic of China
| | - Hongbo Chen
- Department of Infectious Disease, Jurong Hospital Affiliated to Jiangsu University, Jurong, People’s Republic of China
| | - Yifan Wang
- Department of Infectious Disease, Jurong Hospital Affiliated to Jiangsu University, Jurong, People’s Republic of China
| | - Meiling Zhang
- Department of Infectious Disease, Jurong Hospital Affiliated to Jiangsu University, Jurong, People’s Republic of China
| | - Yue Feng
- Faculty of Life Science and Technology, Kunming University of Science and Technology, Yunnan, People’s Republic of China
| | - Rongbin Yu
- Department of Epidemiology, Center for Global Health, School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, People’s Republic of China
| | - Sheng Yang
- Department of Biostatistics, Center for Global Health, School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, People’s Republic of China
| | - Peng Huang
- Department of Epidemiology, Center for Global Health, School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, People’s Republic of China
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Yongpisarn T, Thimphitthaya C, Laoveeravat P, Wongjarupong N, Chaiteerakij R. Non-invasive tests for predicting liver outcomes in chronic hepatitis C patients: A systematic review and meta-analysis. World J Hepatol 2021; 13:949-968. [PMID: 34552701 PMCID: PMC8422917 DOI: 10.4254/wjh.v13.i8.949] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/25/2021] [Revised: 06/14/2021] [Accepted: 07/13/2021] [Indexed: 02/06/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Liver fibrosis leads to liver-related events in patients with chronic hepatitis C (CHC) infection. Although non-invasive tests (NITs) are critical to early detection of the development of liver fibrosis, the prognostic role of NITs remains unclear due to the limited types of NITs and liver outcomes explored in previous studies.
AIM To determine the prognostic value of NITs for risk stratification in CHC patients.
METHODS The protocol was registered in PROSPERO (International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews; no. CRD42019128176). The systematic review was performed in accordance with Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. Search was performed using MEDLINE and EMBASE databases under a timeframe from the inception of the databases through February 25, 2020. We restricted our search to CHC cohort studies reporting an association between liver fibrosis assessed by NITs and the development of hepatocellular carcinoma, decompensation, or mortality. Pooled hazard ratios (HR) and area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) for each NIT were estimated using a random effects model. Subgroup analyses were performed for NITs assessed at pre-treatment or post-treatment with sustained virologic response (SVR), treatment with either pegylated interferon and ribavirin or direct acting antiviral, Eastern or Western countries, and different cutoff points.
RESULTS The present meta-analysis included 29 cohort studies, enrolling 69339 CHC patients. Fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) index, aspartate aminotransferase to platelet ratio (APRI) score, and liver stiffness measurement (LSM) were found to have hepatocellular carcinoma predictive potential with pooled adjusted HRs of 2.48 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.91-3.23, I2 = 96%], 4.24 (95%CI: 2.15-8.38, I2 = 20%) and 7.90 (95%CI: 3.98-15.68, I2 = 52%) and AUROCs of 0.81 (95%CI: 0.73-0.89, I2 = 77%), 0.81 (95%CI: 0.75-0.87, I2 = 68%), and 0.79 (95%CI: 0.63-0.96, I2 = 90%), respectively. Pooled adjusted HR with a pre-treatment FIB-4 cutoff of 3.25 was 3.22 (95%CI: 2.32-4.47, I2 = 80%). Pooled adjusted HRs for post-treatment with SVR FIB-4, APRI, and LSM were 3.01 (95%CI: 0.32-28.61, I2 = 89%), 9.88 (95%CI: 2.21-44.17, I2 = 24%), and 6.33 (95%CI: 2.57-15.59, I2 = 17%), respectively. Pooled adjusted HRs for LSM in patients with SVR following direct acting antiviral therapy was 5.55 (95%CI: 1.47-21.02, I2 = 36%). Pooled AUROCs for post-treatment with SVR FIB-4 and LSM were 0.75 (95%CI: 0.55-0.95, I2 = 88%) and 0.84 (95%CI: 0.66-1.03, I2 = 88%), respectively. Additionally, FIB-4 and LSM were associated with overall mortality, with pooled adjusted HRs of 2.07 (95%CI: 1.49-2.88, I2 = 27%) and 4.04 (95%CI: 2.40-6.80, I2 = 63%), respectively.
CONCLUSION FIB-4, APRI, and LSM showed potential for risk stratification in CHC patients. Cutoff levels need further validation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tanat Yongpisarn
- Division of Gastroenterology, Department of Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Chulalongkorn University and King Chulalongkorn Memorial Hospital, Thai Red Cross Society, Bangkok, Bangkok 10330, Thailand
| | - Chanattha Thimphitthaya
- Division of Gastroenterology, Department of Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Chulalongkorn University and King Chulalongkorn Memorial Hospital, Thai Red Cross Society, Bangkok, Bangkok 10330, Thailand
| | - Passisd Laoveeravat
- Division of Digestive Diseases and Nutrition, Department of Medicine, University of Kentucky, Lexington, KY 40536, United States
| | - Nicha Wongjarupong
- Department of Internal Medicine, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN 55455, United States
| | - Roongruedee Chaiteerakij
- Division of Gastroenterology, Department of Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Chulalongkorn University and King Chulalongkorn Memorial Hospital, Thai Red Cross Society, Bangkok 10330, Thailand
- Center of Excellence for Innovation and Endoscopy in Gastrointestinal Oncology, Faculty of Medicine, Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok 10330, Thailand
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D'Ambrosio R, Aghemo A, Rumi MG, Degasperi E, Sangiovanni A, Maggioni M, Fraquelli M, Perbellini R, Rosenberg W, Bedossa P, Colombo M, Lampertico P. Persistence of hepatocellular carcinoma risk in hepatitis C patients with a response to IFN and cirrhosis regression. Liver Int 2018; 38:1459-1467. [PMID: 29377616 DOI: 10.1111/liv.13707] [Citation(s) in RCA: 22] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/31/2017] [Accepted: 01/12/2018] [Indexed: 12/14/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND AIM In patients with HCV-related cirrhosis, a sustained virological response may lead to cirrhosis regression. Whether histological changes translate into prevention of long-term complications, particularly hepatocellular carcinoma is still unknown. This was investigated in a cohort of histological cirrhotics who had been prospectively followed-up for 10 years after the achievement of a sustained virological response to IFN. METHODS In all, 38 sustained virological response cirrhotics who underwent a liver biopsy 5 years post-SVR were prospectively followed to assess the impact of cirrhosis regression on clinical endpoints. RESULTS During a follow-up of 86 (30-96) months from liver biopsy, no patients developed clinical decompensation, whilst 5 (13%) developed hepatocellular carcinoma after 79 (7-88) months. The 8-year cumulative probability of hepatocellular carcinoma was 17%, without differences between patients with or without cirrhosis regression (19% [95% CI 6%-50%] vs 14% [95% CI 4%-44%], P = .88). Patients who developed or did not an hepatocellular carcinoma had similar rates of residual cirrhosis (P = 1.0), collagen content (P = .48), METAVIR activity (P = .34), portal inflammation (P = .06) and steatosis (P = .17). At baseline, patients who developed an hepatocellular carcinoma had higher γGT (HR 1.03, 95% CI 1.00-1.06; P = .014) and glucose (HR 1.02, 95% CI 1.00-1.02; P = .012) values; moreover, they had increased Forns Score (HR 12.8, 95% CI 1.14-143.9; P = .039), Lok Index (HR 6.24, 95% CI 1.03-37.6; P = .046) and PLF (HR 19.3, 95% CI 1.72-217.6; P = .016) values. One regressor died of lung cancer. The 8-year cumulative survival probability was 97%, independently on cirrhosis regression (96% vs 100%, P = 1.0) or hepatocellular carcinoma (100% vs 97%, P = 1.0). CONCLUSIONS Post-SVR cirrhosis regression does not prevent hepatocellular carcinoma occurrence.
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Affiliation(s)
- Roberta D'Ambrosio
- A. M. and A. Migliavacca Center for Liver Disease, Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Fondazione IRCCS Cà Granda Ospedale Maggiore Policlinico, Università degli Studi di Milano, Milan, Italy
| | - Alessio Aghemo
- Department of Biomedical Sciences, Humanitas University, Rozzano-Milan, Italy.,Humanitas Clinical and Research Center, Rozzano-Milan, Italy
| | - Maria Grazia Rumi
- Division of Hepatology, Ospedale San Giuseppe, Università degli Studi di Milano, Milan, Italy
| | - Elisabetta Degasperi
- A. M. and A. Migliavacca Center for Liver Disease, Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Fondazione IRCCS Cà Granda Ospedale Maggiore Policlinico, Università degli Studi di Milano, Milan, Italy
| | - Angelo Sangiovanni
- A. M. and A. Migliavacca Center for Liver Disease, Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Fondazione IRCCS Cà Granda Ospedale Maggiore Policlinico, Università degli Studi di Milano, Milan, Italy
| | - Marco Maggioni
- Division of Pathology, Fondazione IRCCS Cà Granda Ospedale Maggiore Policlinico, Università degli Studi di Milano, Milan, Italy
| | - Mirella Fraquelli
- Division of Gastroenterology and Endoscopy, Fondazione IRCCS Cà Granda Ospedale Maggiore Policlinico, Università degli Studi di Milano, Milan, Italy
| | - Riccardo Perbellini
- A. M. and A. Migliavacca Center for Liver Disease, Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Fondazione IRCCS Cà Granda Ospedale Maggiore Policlinico, Università degli Studi di Milano, Milan, Italy
| | - William Rosenberg
- Center for Hepatology, Division of Medicine, University College of London, London, UK
| | - Pierre Bedossa
- Department of Pathology and INSERM U773, Hopital Beaujon, Universitée Paris-Diderot, Clichy, France
| | - Massimo Colombo
- Humanitas Clinical and Research Center, Rozzano-Milan, Italy
| | - Pietro Lampertico
- A. M. and A. Migliavacca Center for Liver Disease, Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Fondazione IRCCS Cà Granda Ospedale Maggiore Policlinico, Università degli Studi di Milano, Milan, Italy
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