The effect of landscape heterogeneity and host movement on a tick-borne pathogen

Using mechanistic models to highlight research priorities for tick-borne zoonotic diseases: Improving our understanding of the ecology and maintenance of Kyasanur Forest Disease in India

The risk of spillover of zoonotic diseases to humans is changing in response to multiple environmental and societal drivers, particularly in tropical regions where the burden of neglected zoonotic diseases is highest and land use change and forest conversion is occurring most rapidly. Neglected zoonotic diseases can have significant impacts on poor and marginalised populations in low-resource settings but ultimately receive less attention and funding for research and interventions. As such, effective control measures and interventions are often hindered by a limited ecological evidence base, which results in a limited understanding of epidemiologically relevant hosts or vectors and the processes that contribute to the maintenance of pathogens and spillover to humans. Here, we develop a generalisable next generation matrix modelling framework to better understand the transmission processes and hosts that have the greatest contribution to the maintenance of tick-borne diseases with the aim of improving the ecological evidence base and framing future research priorities for tick-borne diseases. Using this model we explore the relative contribution of different host groups and transmission routes to the maintenance of a neglected zoonotic tick-borne disease, Kyasanur Forest Disease Virus (KFD), in multiple habitat types. The results highlight the potential importance of transovarial transmission and small mammals and birds in maintaining this disease. This contradicts previous hypotheses that primates play an important role influencing the distribution of infected ticks. There is also a suggestion that risk could vary across different habitat types but currently more research is needed to evaluate this relationship. In light of these results, we outline the key knowledge gaps for this system and future research priorities that could inform effective interventions and control measures.

Factors responsible for Ixodes ricinus presence and abundance across a natural-urban gradient

To better understand the spatial distribution of the common tick Ixodes ricinus, we investigated how local site factors and landscape characteristics influence tick presence and abundance in different greenspaces along the natural-urban gradient in Stockholm County, Sweden. Ticks and field data were collected in 2017 and 2019 and analyzed in relation to habitat type distributions estimated from land cover maps using geographical information system (GIS). A total of 1378 (992 larvae, 370 nymphs, 13 females, and 3 males) questing ticks were collected from 295 sampling plots in 47 different greenspaces. Ticks were present in 41 of the 47 greenspaces and our results show that both local site features such as vegetation height, and landscape characteristics like the amount of mixed coniferous forest, significantly affect tick abundance. Tick abundance was highest in rural areas with large natural and seminatural habitats, but ticks were also present in parks and gardens in highly urbanized areas. Greenspaces along the natural-urban gradient should be included in surveillance for ticks and tick-borne diseases, including highly urbanized sites that may be perceived by the public as areas with low risk for tick encounters.

Experimental evidence for opposing effects of high deer density on tick-borne pathogen prevalence and hazard

BACKGROUND

Identifying the mechanisms driving disease risk is challenging for multi-host pathogens, such as Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato (s.l.), the tick-borne bacteria causing Lyme disease. Deer are tick reproduction hosts but do not transmit B. burgdorferi s.l., whereas rodents and birds are competent transmission hosts. Here, we use a long-term deer exclosure experiment to test three mechanisms for how high deer density might shape B. burgdorferi s.l. prevalence in ticks: increased prevalence due to higher larval tick densities facilitating high transmission on rodents (M1); alternatively, reduced B. burgdorferi s.l. prevalence because more larval ticks feed on deer rather than transmission-competent rodents (dilution effect) (M2), potentially due to ecological cascades, whereby higher deer grazing pressure shortens vegetation which decreases rodent abundance thus reducing transmission (M3).

METHODS

In a large enclosure where red deer stags were kept at high density (35.5 deer km^-2), we used an experimental design consisting of eight plots of 0.23 ha, four of which were fenced to simulate the absence of deer and four that were accessible to deer. In each plot we measured the density of questing nymphs and nymphal infection prevalence in spring, summer and autumn, and quantified vegetation height and density, and small mammal abundance.

RESULTS

Prevalence tended to be lower, though not conclusively so, in high deer density plots compared to exclosures (predicted prevalence of 1.0% vs 2.2%), suggesting that the dilution and cascade mechanisms might outweigh the increased opportunities for transmission mechanism. Presence of deer at high density led to shorter vegetation and fewer rodents, consistent with an ecological cascade. However, Lyme disease hazard (density of infected I. ricinus nymphs) was five times higher in high deer density plots due to tick density being 18 times higher.

CONCLUSIONS

High densities of tick reproduction hosts such as deer can drive up vector-borne disease hazard, despite the potential to simultaneously reduce pathogen prevalence. This has implications for environmental pathogen management and for deer management, although the impact of intermediate deer densities now needs testing.

Mechanistic movement models reveal ecological drivers of tick-borne pathogen spread

Identifying ecological drivers of tick-borne pathogen spread has great value for tick-borne disease management. However, theoretical investigations into the consequences of host movement behaviour on pathogen spread dynamics in heterogeneous landscapes remain limited because spatially explicit epidemiological models that incorporate more realistic mechanisms governing host movement are rare. We built a mechanistic movement model to investigate how the interplay between multiple ecological drivers affects the risk of tick-borne pathogen spread across heterogeneous landscapes. We used the model to generate simulations of tick dispersal by migratory birds and terrestrial hosts across theoretical landscapes varying in resource aggregation, and we performed a sensitivity analysis to explore the impacts of different parameters on the infected tick spread rate, tick infection prevalence and infected tick density. Our findings highlight the importance of host movement and tick population dynamics in explaining the infected tick spread rate into new regions. Tick infection prevalence and infected tick density were driven by predictors related to the infection process and tick population dynamics, respectively. Our results suggest that control strategies aiming to reduce tick burden on tick reproduction hosts and encounter rate between immature ticks and pathogen amplification hosts will be most effective at reducing tick-borne disease risk.

Landscape epidemiology of neglected tick-borne pathogens in central Europe

Studies of tick-borne diseases (TBDs) in Europe focus on pathogens with principal medical importance (e.g. Lyme disease and tick-borne encephalitis), but we have limited epidemiological information on the neglected pathogens, such as the members of the genera Anaplasma, Rickettsia, Babesia and Candidatus Neoehrlichia mikurensis. Here, we integrated an extensive field sampling, laboratory analysis and GIS models to provide first publicly available information on pathogen diversity, prevalence and infection risk for four overlooked zoonotic TBDs in the Czech Republic. In addition, we assessed the effect of landscape variables on the abundance of questing ticks at different spatial scales and examined whether pathogen prevalence increased with tick density. Our data from 13,340 ticks collected in 142 municipalities showed that A. phagocytophilum (MIR = 3.5%) and Ca. Neoehrlichia mikurensis (MIR = 4.0%) pose geographically uneven risks with localized hotspots, while Rickettsia (MIR = 4.9%) and Babesia (MIR = 1.1%) had relatively homogeneous spatial distribution. Landscape variables had significant effect on tick abundance up to the scale of 1 km around the sampling sites. Questing ticks responded positively to landscape diversity and configuration, especially to forest patch density that strongly correlates with the amount of woodland-grassland ecotones. For all four pathogens, we found higher prevalence in places with higher densities of ticks, confirming the hypothesis that tick abundance amplifies the risk of TB infection. Our findings highlight the importance of landscape parameters for tick vectors, likely due to their effect on small vertebrates as reservoir hosts. Future studies should explicitly investigate the combined effect of landscape parameters and the composition and population dynamics of hosts on the host-vector-pathogen system.

Identifying Environmental Risk Factors for Louping Ill Virus Seroprevalence in Sheep and the Potential to Inform Wildlife Management Policy

Identifying the risk factors for disease is crucial for developing policy and strategies for controlling exposure to pathogens. However, this is often challenging, especially in complex disease systems, such as vector-borne diseases with multiple hosts and other environmental drivers. Here we combine seroprevalence data with GIS-based environmental variables to identify the environmental risk factors associated with an endemic tick-borne pathogen—louping ill virus—in sheep in Scotland. Higher seroprevalences were associated with (i) upland/moorland habitats, in accordance with what we predicted from the habitat preferences of alternative LIV transmission hosts (such as red grouse), (ii) areas of higher deer density, which supports predictions from previous theoretical models, since deer are the key Ixodes ricinus tick reproduction host in this system, and (iii) a warmer climate, concurring with our current knowledge of how temperature affects tick activity and development rates. The implications for policy include adopting increased disease management and awareness in high risk habitats and in the presence of alternative LIV hosts (e.g., grouse) and tick hosts (especially deer). These results can also inform deer management policy, especially where there may be conflict between contrasting upland management objectives, for example, revenue from deer hunting vs. sheep farmers.

Dynamic, spatial models of parasite transmission in wildlife: Their structure, applications and remaining challenges

Individual differences in contact rate can arise from host, group and landscape heterogeneity and can result in different patterns of spatial spread for diseases in wildlife populations with concomitant implications for disease control in wildlife of conservation concern, livestock and humans. While dynamic disease models can provide a better understanding of the drivers of spatial spread, the effects of landscape heterogeneity have only been modelled in a few well-studied wildlife systems such as rabies and bovine tuberculosis. Such spatial models tend to be either purely theoretical with intrinsic limiting assumptions or individual-based models that are often highly species- and system-specific, limiting the breadth of their utility. Our goal was to review studies that have utilized dynamic, spatial models to answer questions about pathogen transmission in wildlife and identify key gaps in the literature. We begin by providing an overview of the main types of dynamic, spatial models (e.g., metapopulation, network, lattice, cellular automata, individual-based and continuous-space) and their relation to each other. We investigate different types of ecological questions that these models have been used to explore: pathogen invasion dynamics and range expansion, spatial heterogeneity and pathogen persistence, the implications of management and intervention strategies and the role of evolution in host-pathogen dynamics. We reviewed 168 studies that consider pathogen transmission in free-ranging wildlife and classify them by the model type employed, the focal host-pathogen system, and their overall research themes and motivation. We observed a significant focus on mammalian hosts, a few well-studied or purely theoretical pathogen systems, and a lack of studies occurring at the wildlife-public health or wildlife-livestock interfaces. Finally, we discuss challenges and future directions in the context of unprecedented human-mediated environmental change. Spatial models may provide new insights into understanding, for example, how global warming and habitat disturbance contribute to disease maintenance and emergence. Moving forward, better integration of dynamic, spatial disease models with approaches from movement ecology, landscape genetics/genomics and ecoimmunology may provide new avenues for investigation and aid in the control of zoonotic and emerging infectious diseases.

Louping ill virus in the UK: a review of the hosts, transmission and ecological consequences of control

Louping ill virus (LIV) is a tick-borne flavivirus that is part of the tick-borne encephalitis complex of viruses (TBEV) and has economic and welfare importance by causing illness and death in livestock, especially sheep, Ovies aries, and red grouse, Lagopus lagopus scoticus, an economically valuable gamebird. Unlike Western TBEV which is found primarily in woodlands and is reservoired by small rodents, LIV is not generally transmitted by small rodents but instead by sheep, red grouse and mountain hares and, therefore, is associated with upland heather moorland and rough grazing land. Red grouse are a particularly interesting transmission host because they may acquire most of their LIV infections through eating ticks rather than being bitten by ticks. Furthermore, the main incentive for the application of LIV control methods is not to protect sheep, but to protect red grouse, which is an economically important gamebird. The widespread intensive culling of mountain hares which has been adopted in several areas of Scotland to try to control ticks and LIV has become an important issue in Scotland in recent years. This review outlines the reservoir hosts and transmission cycles of LIV in the UK, then describes the various control methods that have been tried or modelled, with far-reaching implications for conservation and public opinion.

Past and future perspectives on mathematical models of tick-borne pathogens

Ticks are vectors of pathogens which are important both with respect to human health and economically. They have a complex life cycle requiring several blood meals throughout their life. These blood meals take place on different individual hosts and potentially on different host species. Their life cycle is also dependent on environmental conditions such as the temperature and habitat type. Mathematical models have been used for the more than 30 years to help us understand how tick dynamics are dependent on these environmental factors and host availability. In this paper, we review models of tick dynamics and summarize the main results. This summary is split into two parts, one which looks at tick dynamics and one which looks at tick-borne pathogens. In general, the models of tick dynamics are used to determine when the peak in tick densities is likely to occur in the year and how that changes with environmental conditions. The models of tick-borne pathogens focus more on the conditions under which the pathogen can persist and how host population densities might be manipulated to control these pathogens. In the final section of the paper, we identify gaps in the current knowledge and future modelling approaches. These include spatial models linked to environmental information and Geographic Information System maps, and development of new modelling techniques which model tick densities per host more explicitly.

Geospatial Risk Factors of Canine American Trypanosomiasis (Chagas Disease) (42 Cases: 2000-2012)

American trypanosomiasis or Chagas disease caused by Trypanosoma cruzi affects many mammals, including humans and dogs, in all Latin American countries outside the Caribbean and increasingly also in the southern United States. Dogs are considered as reliable sentinels and have been identified as an important risk factor for the disease in humans in endemic countries. Factors that determine American trypanosomiasis in dogs may therefore have public health relevance. Associations of different environmental, locational, and pet owner socioeconomic conditions were evaluated retrospectively as potential risk factors for American trypanosomiasis status in dogs in a case-control study. Laboratory-confirmed cases received at the Texas A&M University Veterinary Medical Teaching Hospital between the years 2000 and 2012 and candidate risk factor variables extracted from publicly available environmental data and 2010 US Census Bureau were used. The sample included 42 dogs serologically positive and 82 dogs serologically negative determined by indirect immunofluorescent assay. The diagnostic titer was 1:160 (case). Univariate logistic regressions followed by stepwise multivariate logistic modeling were used for variable screening and to determine the strengths of variable associations with case status. Total Edge Contrast Index (odds ratio [OR] = 3.35, 95% confidence interval [CI] 3.10, 3.62), residing in homes that had rural addresses (OR = 2.48, 95% CI 2.43, 2.53), total number of owner occupied housing units in a neighborhood with a householder who is Hispanic or Latino (OR = 1.66, 95% CI 1.04, 2.66), and the total number of housing units in a neighborhood that were built on or prior to year 1980 (OR = 2.22, 95% CI 1.94, 2.55) were identified as risk factors. Suitable awareness campaigns and future research that considers pet owner housing and socioeconomic circumstances are necessary for effective prevention and control of this disease among dogs.

Factors driving the abundance of ixodes ricinus ticks and the prevalence of zoonotic I. ricinus-borne pathogens in natural foci

Environmental factors may drive tick ecology and therefore tick-borne pathogen (TBP) epidemiology, which determines the risk to animals and humans of becoming infected by TBPs. For this reason, the aim of this study was to analyze the influence of environmental factors on the abundance of immature-stage Ixodes ricinus ticks and on the prevalence of two zoonotic I. ricinus-borne pathogens in natural foci of endemicity. I. ricinus abundance was measured at nine sites in the northern Iberian Peninsula by dragging the vegetation with a cotton flannelette, and ungulate abundance was measured by means of dung counts. In addition to ungulate abundance, data on variables related to spatial location, climate, and soil were gathered from the study sites. I. ricinus adults, nymphs, and larvae were collected from the vegetation, and a representative subsample of I. ricinus nymphs from each study site was analyzed by PCR for the detection of Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato and Anaplasma phagocytophilum DNA. Mean prevalences of these pathogens were 4.0% ± 1.8% and 20.5% ± 3.7%, respectively. Statistical analyses confirmed the influence of spatial factors, climate, and ungulate abundance on I. ricinus larva abundance, while nymph abundance was related only to climate. Interestingly, cattle abundance rather than deer abundance was the main driver of B. burgdorferi sensu lato and A. phagocytophilum prevalence in I. ricinus nymphs in the study sites, where both domestic and wild ungulates coexist. The increasing abundance of cattle seems to increase the risk of other hosts becoming infected by A. phagocytophilum, while reducing the risk of being infected by B. burgdorferi sensu lato. Controlling ticks in cattle in areas where they coexist with wild ungulates would be more effective for TBP control than reducing ungulate abundance.