Stability and recovery of coral-algae systems: the importance of recruitment seasonality and grazing influence

Assessing the potential for demographic restoration and assisted evolution to build climate resilience in coral reefs

Interest is growing in developing conservation strategies to restore and maintain coral reef ecosystems in the face of mounting anthropogenic stressors, particularly climate warming and associated mass bleaching events. One such approach is to propagate coral colonies ex situ and transplant them to degraded reef areas to augment habitat for reef-dependent fauna, prevent colonization from spatial competitors, and enhance coral reproductive output. In addition to such "demographic restoration" efforts, manipulating the thermal tolerance of outplanted colonies through assisted relocation, selective breeding, or genetic engineering is being considered for enhancing rates of evolutionary adaptation to warming. Although research into such "assisted evolution" strategies has been growing, their expected performance remains unclear. We evaluated the potential outcomes of demographic restoration and assisted evolution in climate change scenarios using an eco-evolutionary simulation model. We found that supplementing reefs with pre-existing genotypes (demographic restoration) offers little climate resilience benefits unless input levels are large and maintained for centuries. Supplementation with thermally resistant colonies was successful at improving coral cover at lower input levels, but only if maintained for at least a century. Overall, we found that, although demographic restoration and assisted evolution have the potential to improve long-term coral cover, both approaches had a limited impact in preventing severe declines under climate change scenarios. Conversely, with sufficient natural genetic variance and time, corals could readily adapt to warming temperatures, suggesting that restoration approaches focused on building genetic variance may outperform those based solely on introducing heat-tolerant genotypes.

Coral Reef Mapping with Remote Sensing and Machine Learning: A Nurture and Nature Analysis in Marine Protected Areas

Mapping habitats is essential to assist strategic decisions regarding the use and protection of coral reefs. Coupled with machine learning (ML) algorithms, remote sensing has allowed detailed mapping of reefs at meaningful scales. Here we integrated WorldView-3 and Landsat-8 imagery and ML techniques to produce a map of suitable habitats for the occurrence of a model species, the hydrocoral Millepora alcicornis, in coral reefs located inside marine protected areas in Northeast Brazil. Conservation and management efforts in the region were also analyzed, integrating human use layers to the ecological seascape. Three ML techniques were applied: two to derive base layers, namely geographically weighted regressions for bathymetry and support vector machine classifier (SVM) for habitat mapping, and one to build the species distribution model (MaxEnt) for Millepora alcicornis, a conspicuous and important reef-building species in the area. Additionally, human use was mapped based on the presence of tourists and fishers. SVM yielded 15 benthic classes (e.g., seagrass, sand, coral), with an overall accuracy of 79%. Bathymetry and its derivative layers depicted the topographical complexity of the area. The Millepora alcicornis distribution model identified distance from the shore and depth as topographical factors limiting the settling and growth of coral colonies. The most important variables were ecological, showing the importance of maintaining high biodiversity in the ecosystem. The comparison of the habitat suitability model with species absence and human use maps indicated the impact of direct human activities as potential inhibitors of coral development. Results reinforce the importance of the establishment of no-take zones and other protective measures for maintaining local biodiversity.

Extreme temperature events will drive coral decline in the Coral Triangle

In light of rapid environmental change, quantifying the contribution of regional- and local-scale drivers of coral persistence is necessary to characterize fully the resilience of coral reef systems. To assess multiscale responses to thermal perturbation of corals in the Coral Triangle (CT), we developed a spatially explicit metacommunity model with coral-algal competition, including seasonal larval dispersal and external spatiotemporal forcing. We tested coral sensitivity in 2,083 reefs across the CT region and surrounding areas under potential future temperature regimes, with and without interannual climate variability, exploring a range of 0.5-2.0°C overall increase in temperature in the system by 2054. We found that among future projections, reef survival probability and mean percent coral cover over time were largely determined by the presence or absence of interannual sea surface temperature (SST) extremes as well as absolute temperature increase. Overall, reefs that experienced SST time series that were filtered to remove interannual variability had approximately double the chance of survival than reefs subjected to unfiltered SST. By the end of the forecast period, the inclusion of thermal anomalies was equivalent to an increase of at least 0.5°C in SST projections without anomalies. Change in percent coral cover varied widely across the region within temperature scenarios, with some reefs experiencing local extinction while others remaining relatively unchanged. Sink strength and current thermal stress threshold were found to be significant drivers of these patterns, highlighting the importance of processes that underlie larval connectivity and bleaching sensitivity in coral networks.