The risk factors of hand-foot-mouth disease in Chinese Mainland people

Developing a Nomogram for Risk Prediction of Severe Hand-Foot-and-Mouth Disease in Children

OBJECTIVE

Early recognition of children with severe Hand-Foot-and-Mouth disease (HFMD) is especially important, as severe cases are associated with poor prognosis. To accomplish this, authors designed a quantitative assessment tool to build a nomogram to assist in clinical diagnosis.

METHODS

A total of 2332 HFMD patients were enrolled in this study; 1750 cases in the mild group and 582 cases in the severe group. Analysis of all of the data was performed using R software version 3.4.3. Multivariate logistic regression was utilized to screen predictors to construct a nomogram model. Finally, predictive performance of the model was evaluated using a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and classifier calibration plot.

RESULTS

A nomogram was constructed with five variables: age, peak temperature, fever duration, pathogen, and vomiting. For the nomogram, the area under the curve was 0.87, and the model prediction accuracy rate was 85.2%. Depending upon the comparison of the area under the ROC curve, the nomogram model was superior to the traditional pediatric clinical illness score (PCIS). With the help of the Hosmer-Lemeshow test and resampling model calibration curve, the fitting performance of the nomogram was stable.

CONCLUSIONS

With advantages such as simplicity, intuitiveness, and practicality, the nomogram (including age, peak temperature, fever duration, pathogen, and vomiting) is capable of predicting severe HFMD and has certain auxiliary value in clinical applications.

Epidemiology of 45,616 suspect cases of Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease in Chongqing, China, 2011-2015

Epidemiology and etiology of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) based on large sample size or evaluation of detection for more enterovirus serotypes are not well investigated in Chongqing of China. 45,616 suspect HFMD patients were prospectively enrolled among whom 21,615 were laboratory confirmed HFMD cases over a 5-year period (January 2011 to December 2015). Their epidemiological, clinical, and laboratory data were extracted and stratified by month, age, sex, disease severity, and enterovirus serotype. Subsequently 292 non-EV-A71/CV-A16 HFMD confirmed cases were randomly selected in three consecutive outbreaks to detect CV-A6 and CV-A10, using RT-PCR. Results showed that the HFMD epidemic peaked in early summer and autumn. The median age of onset was 2.45 years with a male-to-female ratio of 1.54:1, and with children under 5 years of age accounting for 92.54% of all confirmed cases. EV-A71 and CV-A16 infection accounted for only 36.05% (7793/21615) of total confirmed cases while EV-A71 accounted for 59.64% (232/389) of severe cases. Importantly, the proportion of EV-A71 infection generally increased with age which showed rapid growth in severe cases. CV-A6 and CV-A10 were tested positive in Chongqing, but CV-A6 had greater positive rates of 62.33% while CV-A10 had 4.79% in non-EV-A71/CV-A16 HFMD confirmed cases.

Case-fatality of hand, foot and mouth disease associated with EV71: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) associated with enterovirus 71 (EV71) is a growing public health concern. This study aimed to estimate the case-fatality of HFMD associated with EV71 on the basis of a meta-analysis. We searched PubMed, Cochrane, Web of Science, Elsevier, CNKI, Wanfang, and VIP databases. Two authors independently selected relevant studies. The pooled estimate of case-fatality was calculated using a random-effects model. Potential sources of heterogeneity were explored using subgroup analysis, sensitivity analysis and meta-regression. We identified 14 eligible studies with a total population of 112 546. The random-effects pooled case-fatality was 1·7% (95% confidence interval 1·2–2·4). The funnel plot was asymmetrical. The estimate of case-fatality was highest in mainland China (1·8%). Removal of eight local Chinese studies decreased the original estimate. The pooled case-fatality in the period of 1998–2007 (1·5%) was lower than that in the period 2008–2012 (1·8%). Control measures for HFMD associated with EV71 are essential because of the increased case-fatality over time, especially in East Asia.