Early stimulated thyroglobulin for response prediction after recombinant human thyrotropin-aided radioiodine therapy

Predicting excellent response to radioiodine in differentiated thyroid cancer using machine learning

Objective

If excellent response (ER) occurs after radioactive iodine (RAI) treatment in patients with differentiated thyroid carcinoma (DTC), the recurrence rate is low. Our study aims to predict ER at 6-24 months after RAI by using machine learning (ML) methods in which clinicopathological parameters are included in patients with DTC without distant metastasis.

Methods

Treatment response of 151 patients with DTC without distant metastasis and who received RAI treatment was determined (ER/nonER). Thyroidectomy ± neck dissection pathology data, laboratory, and imaging findings before and after RAI treatment were introduced to ML models.

Results

After RAI treatment, 118 patients had ER and 33 had nonER. Before RAI treatment, TgAb was positive in 29% of patients with ER and 55% of patients with nonER (p = 0.007). Eight of the ML models predicted ER with high area under the ROC curve (AUC) values (> 0.700). The model with the highest AUC value was extreme gradient boosting (AUC = 0.871), the highest accuracy shown by gradient boosting (81%).

Conclusions

ML models may be used to predict ER in patients with DTC without distant metastasis.

Development of a predictive nomogram for intermediate-risk differentiated thyroid cancer patients after fixed 3.7GBq (100mCi) radioiodine remnant ablation

Objectives

The objective of this study was to develop a predictive nomogram for intermediate-risk differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC) patients after fixed 3.7GBq (100mCi) radioiodine remnant ablation (RRA).

Methods

Data from 265 patients who underwent total thyroidectomy with central lymph node dissection (CND) and received RRA treatment at a single institution between January 2018 and March 2023 were analyzed. Patients with certain exclusion criteria were excluded. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to identify risk factors for a non-excellent response (non-ER) to RRA. A nomogram was developed based on the risk factors, and its performance was validated using the Bootstrap method with 1,000 resamplings. A web-based dynamic calculator was developed for convenient application of the nomogram.

Results

The study included 265 patients with intermediate-risk DTC. Significant differences were found between the ER group and the non-ER group in terms of CLNM>5, Hashimoto's thyroiditis, sTg level, TgAb level (P < 0.05). CLNM>5 and sTg level were identified as independent risk factors for non-ER in multivariate analysis. The nomogram showed high accuracy, with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.833 (95% CI = 0.770-0.895). The nomogram's predicted probabilities aligned closely with actual clinical outcomes.

Conclusions

This study developed a predictive nomogram for intermediate-risk DTC patients after fixed 3.7GBq (100mCi) RRA. The nomogram incorporates CLNM>5 and sTg levels as risk factors for a non-ER response to RRA. The nomogram and web-based calculator can assist in treatment decision-making and improve the precision of prognosis information. Further research and validation are needed.

Unexpected radioactive iodine accumulation on whole-body scan after I-131 ablation therapy for differentiated thyroid cancer

We retrospectively evaluated the frequency of unexpected accumulation of radioactive iodine on the post-therapy whole-body scan (Rx-WBS) after radioactive iodine (RAI) ablation therapy in patients with differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC). We searched our institutional database for Rx-WBSs of DTC patients who underwent RAI ablation or adjuvant therapy between 2012 and 2019. Patients with distant metastasis diagnosed by CT or PET/CT before therapy, and those had previously received RAI therapy were excluded. In total, 293 patients (201 female and 92 male, median age 54 years) were selected. Two nuclear medicine physicians interpreted the Rx-WBS images by determining the visual intensity of radioiodine uptake by the thyroid bed, cervical and mediastinal lymph nodes, lungs, and bone. Clinical features of the patients with and without the metastatic accumulation were compared by chi-square test and median test. Logistic regression analyses were performed to compare the association between the presence of metastatic accumulation and these clinical factors. Eighty-four of 293 patients (28.7%) showed metastatic accumulation. Patients with metastatic RAI accumulation showed a significantly higher frequency of pathological N1 (pN1) and serum thyroglobulin (Tg) > 1.5 ng/ml under TSH stimulation (p = 0.035 and p = 0.031, respectively). Logistic regression analysis indicated that a serum Tg > 1.5 ng/ml was significantly correlated with the presence of metastatic accumulation (odds ratio = 1.985; p = 0.033). In conclusion, Patients with Tg > 1.5 ng/ml were more likely to show metastatic accumulation. In addition, the presence of lymph node metastasis at the initial thyroid surgery was also associated with this unexpected metastatic accumulation.

Early preablation rhTSH-stimulated thyroglobulin predicts outcome of differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC) patients

AIM

Total thyroidectomy and risk-adapted 131-radioiodine therapy (RaIT) are the treatments of choice in differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC) patients. The response to treatments is assessed 6-12 months after RaIT. However, thyroglobulin (Tg) values obtained just before RaIT also provide reliable informations on patients'outcome. As available data were mostly obtained in hypothyroid status, we evaluated the predictive role of preablation-Tg in patients underwent RaIT after rhTSH stimulation.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

We enrolled 299 low-to-intermediate risk DTC patients underwent rhTSH-stimulated RaIT (standard protocol). Serum Tg levels were measured before rhTSH administration (basal Tg), before RaIT (early-stimulated Tg), and 2 days after RaIT (late-stimulated Tg). The early response assessment was done 12 months after RaIT according to 2015 American Thyroid Association (2015 ATA) criteria.

RESULTS

Most patients (277/299, 92.6%) had an excellent response (ER) to RaIT, while 15/299 (5.1%) and 7/299 (2.3%) patients showed biochemical incomplete/indeterminate response or persistent structural disease, respectively. At receiver operating characteristic analysis, the optimal cutoff to predict ER was set at 1.55 (AUC = 0.792), 2.6 (AUC = 0.931), and 4.9 (AUC = 0.874) ng/mL, for basal, early-, and late-stimulated Tg, respectively. The overall sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) for basal, early-, and late-stimulated Tg were 50%, 96.7%, 93.3%, 55%, and 96.1%; 90.9%, 84.5%, 84.9%, 31.7%, and 99.1%; and 90.9%, 71.8%, 73.2%, 20.4%, and 99%, respectively. In univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis, early-stimulated Tg cutoff resulted as an independent prognostic marker for predicting ER regardless of gender, age, histotype, histological variant, tumor size, risk classification, and stage of disease.

CONCLUSION

Early-stimulated Tg is a reliable diagnostic tool for predicting the response to primary treatment of DTC.

Optimization of serum thyroglobulin measured at different time points for prognostic evaluation in differentiated thyroid carcinoma patients

Although serum thyroglobulin (Tg) is a reliable differentiated thyroid carcinoma (DTC) prognostic marker, its cutoff values can be affected by TSH stimulation status. Serum Tg prognostic values measured at different time points before and after radioactive iodine (RAI) therapy prepared with recombinant human TSH (rhTSH) in DTC patients, were investigated.This study included 160 DTC patients who underwent surgery followed by rhTSH-aided RAI therapy. Their serum Tg levels were measured 7 days before (D-7Tg), on the day of (D0Tg), and 2 days after (D2Tg) the RAI therapy. For response evaluation, the patients were classified into 2 groups: acceptable response and non-acceptable response (non-AR). Optimal Tg level cutoff values measured at different time points were evaluated for persistent or recurrent disease (PRD) prediction, as well as therapeutic response.Multivariate analysis showed that D-7Tg, D0Tg, and D2Tg significantly predicted non-AR (P < .05, for all). Optimal Tg level cutoff values for non-AR prediction were 0.6, 2.6, and 3.7 ng/mL for D-7Tg, D0Tg, and D2Tg, respectively. Cox regression analysis showed that Tg levels were significantly associated with PRD free survival with D-7Tg, D0Tg, and D2Tg cutoff values of 0.8, 4.0, and 6.0 ng/mL, respectively (D-7Tg, P = .010; D0Tg, P = .005; D2Tg, P = .011).Serum Tg levels measured at the different time points could predict PRD free survival as well as therapeutic response with different cutoff values in DTC patients who underwent rhTSH-aided RAI therapy.

Efficacy of low radioiodine activity versus intermediate-high activity in the ablation of low-risk differentiated thyroid cancer

PURPOSE

The aim of our study was to compare the efficacy of thyroid remnant ablation using low (1.1 GBq) and intermediate-high radioiodine (RAI) activity (1.85-3.7 GBq) in low-risk differentiated thyroid carcinoma (DTC) and to evaluate the staging role of the whole body scan (WBS) in detection extrathyroidal disease.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We retrospectively included 277 patients who underwent total thyroidectomy and RAI for low-risk DTC and divided them in two groups according to RAI activity at ablation: group 1 (n = 174) treated with low activity (1.1 GBq), and group 2 (n = 103) with intermediate-high activity (1.85-3.7 GBq). To evaluate the successful ablation rate, the WBS 1 year after RAI was visually interpreted using a three-point scale: score 0 in case of absence of visible RAI uptake in thyroid bed; score 1 in presence of faint uptake in the thyroid bed; and score 2 in case of significant RAI uptake in thyroid bed.

RESULTS

The success ablation rate was significantly higher in group 2 than group 1 (p < 0.001) with the presence of a positive WBS (score 1-2) in 65% low-activity group and 33% in intermediate-high group. Considering response to therapy categories, excellent response rate was significantly higher in group 2 (p = 0.020), while indeterminate response was higher in group 1 (p value = 0.005). Post RAI imaging revealed extrathyroidal uptake in 27 cases: 17 laterocervical nodal and 10 distant metastases. In both groups similar detection rate of nodal and distant metastases were recognized without any statistical difference.

CONCLUSIONS

The ablation rate with intermediate-high RAI activity (1.85-3.7 GBq) was better than with a low activity (1.1 GBq). First WBS may help to recognize nodal and distant metastases in about 10% of cases changing clinical stage and subsequent management.

Optimization of Predictive Performance for the Therapeutic Response Using Iodine Scan-Corrected Serum Thyroglobulin in Patients with Differentiated Thyroid Carcinoma

We investigated whether the performance of serum thyroglobulin (Tg) for response prediction could be improved based on the iodine uptake pattern on the post-therapeutic I-131 whole body scan (RxWBS) and the degree of thyroid tissue damage with radioactive iodine (RAI) therapy. A total of 319 patients with differentiated thyroid carcinoma who underwent total thyroidectomy and RAI therapy were included. Based on the presence/absence of focal uptake at the anterior midline of the neck above the thyroidectomy bed on RxWBS, patients were classified into positive and negative uptake groups. Serum Tg was measured immediately before (D0Tg) and 7 days after RAI therapy (D7Tg). Patients were further categorized into favorable and unfavorable Tg groups based on the prediction of excellent response (ER) using scan-corrected Tg developed through the stepwise combination of D0Tg with ratio Tg (D7Tg/D0Tg). We investigated whether the predictive performance for ER improved with the application of scan-corrected Tg compared to the single Tg cutoff. The combined approach using scan-corrected Tg showed better predictive performance for ER than the single cutoff of D0Tg alone (p < 0.001). Therefore, scan-corrected Tg can be a promising biomarker to predict the therapeutic responses after RAI therapy.

Response Prediction of Altered Thyroglobulin Levels After Radioactive Iodine Therapy Aided by Recombinant Human Thyrotropin in Patients with Differentiated Thyroid Cancer

Purpose

Thyroglobulin (Tg) may be released from damaged residual thyroid tissues after radioactive iodine (RAI) therapy in patients with differentiated thyroid carcinoma (DTC). We investigated whether altered levels of serum Tg after recombinant human thyrotropin (rhTSH)-aided RAI therapy could be a prognostic marker in patients with DTC.

Methods

We evaluated 68 patients who underwent RAI therapy after total thyroidectomy. Serum Tg levels were measured just before RAI administration (D0Tg) and 7 days after RAI therapy (D7Tg). Patients with a D0Tg level greater than 2.0 ng/mL were excluded to more precisely evaluate the injury effect of RAI in small remnant tissues. The ratioTg was defined as the D7Tg level divided by that on D0Tg. The therapeutic responses were classified as acceptable or non-acceptable. Finally, we investigated which clinicopathologic parameters were associated with therapeutic response.

Results

At the follow-up examination, an acceptable response was observed in 50 patients (73.5%). Univariate analysis revealed significant differences in N stage (P = 0.003) and ratioTg (acceptable vs. non-acceptable responses, 21.9 ± 33.6 vs. 3.8 ± 6.5; P = 0.006). In multivariate analysis, only ratioTg significantly predicted an acceptable response (odds ratio 1.104; 95% confidence interval 1.005-1.213; P = 0.040). A ratioTg above 3.5 predicted an acceptable response with a sensitivity of 66.0%, specificity of 83.3%, and accuracy of 70.6% (area under the curve = 0.718; P = 0.006).

Conclusions

Altered levels of serum Tg after RAI therapy, calculated as the ratioTg (D7Tg/D0Tg), significantly predicted an acceptable response in patients with DTC.