Clinicopathological factors predicting early and late distant recurrence in estrogen receptor-positive, HER2-negative breast cancer

Validation of late recurrence prediction by gene expression profiles and clinicopathological factors in estrogen receptor-positive breast cancer

BACKGROUND

The mechanism of late recurrence (LR) of estrogen receptor (ER)-positive breast cancer remains unclear, as previous studies have separately investigated "gene expression profiles" and "clinicopathological factors." Thus, this study aimed to evaluate the predictive capability of LR by combining the two independent factors of gene expression profiles (42-gene classifier: 42GC) and clinicopathological factors (Clinical Treatment Score post-5 years: CTS5) in multiple large cohorts.

METHODS

We analyzed microarray CEL file data downloaded from public databases of 28 global cohorts. A total of 2,454 patients with ER-positive breast cancer were analyzed for 42GC, and 1,263 of these, with complete clinicopathological data were analyzed for CTS5.

RESULTS

In the analysis of recurrent patients, the 42GC LR and CTS5 low-risk group tended to have LR. Notably, in the analysis of patients with and without recurrence, the highest LR rate beyond 5 years was observed in the CTS5 high-risk group. The combination of the 42GC and CTS5 high-risk groups showed the highest LR rate (16.9%), significantly exceeding that of the 42GC non-LR (NLR) and CTS5 low-risk combination (5.41%) (p = 0.038, odds ratio = 3.53). Furthermore, incorporating a third factor, 95GC, potentially reduced the number of patients prioritized for extended hormonal therapy for approximately one-quarter of patients.

CONCLUSIONS

Results confirmed that the two factors, gene expression profiles and clinicopathological factors, affect the time of recurrence. It also showed that the biological predisposition for LR (CTS5 low-risk) differed from the high LR rate (CTS5 high-risk). In clinical practice, patients with the 42GC LR and CTS5 high-risk combination should be prioritized for extended hormonal therapy. The addition of CTS5 and 95GC to 42GC allows for better risk classification of LR.

Biomarkers predictive of a response to extended endocrine therapy in breast cancer: a systematic review and meta-analysis

PURPOSE

Extension of adjuvant endocrine therapy beyond five years confers only modest survival benefit in breast cancer patients and carries risk of toxicities. This systematic review investigates the role of biomarker tests in predicting the clinical response to an extension of endocrine therapy.

METHODS

We searched Ovid MEDLINE, Ovid Embase, Global Index Medicus, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials using an iterative approach to identify full-text articles related to breast cancer, endocrine therapy, and biomarkers.

RESULTS

Of the 1,217 unique reports identified, five studies were deemed eligible. Four investigated the Breast Cancer Index (BCI) assay in three distinct study populations. These studies consistently showed that BCI score was predictive of response to extended endocrine therapy among 1,946 combined patients, who were predominately non-Hispanic white and postmenopausal.

CONCLUSIONS

Evidence in the setting of predictive tests for extended endocrine therapy is sparse. Most relevant studies investigated the use of BCI, but these study populations were largely restricted to a single age, race, and ethnicity group. Future studies should evaluate a variety of biomarkers in diverse populations. Without sufficient evidence, physicians and patients face a difficult decision in balancing the benefits and risks of endocrine therapy extension.

Risk factors for late recurrence and postrelapse survival in estrogen receptor (ER)-positive, human epidermal growth factor receptor (HER) 2-negative breast cancer after 5 years of endocrine therapy

It is unclear which patients with ER-positive, HER2-negative breast cancer benefit from extended endocrine therapy beyond 5 years. Prognostic factors for late-recurring breast cancer postrelapse survival have been reported. We retrospectively analyzed data from 892 patients with ER-positive and HER2-negative invasive breast cancer who were disease-free after completing a 5-year adjuvant endocrine therapy. Patients were then classified as high-risk (positive lymph nodes, large tumor size, high tumor grade) or low-risk. High-risk patients were divided into extended endocrine therapy and stop groups. Comparisons were made using propensity score matching, and the benefits of extended endocrine therapy for high-risk patients and prognostic factors for postrelapse survival were assessed. The high- and low-risk groups comprised 444 and 448 patients, respectively. The 10-year distant disease-free survival (DDFS) rates were 96.3 % (95 % confidence interval [CI] 0.912-0.985) and 86.5 % (95 % CI 0.798-0911) in the extended and stop groups, respectively (P = 0.00382). Cox proportional hazards model revealed that extended endocrine therapy promoted greater reduction in distant metastasis risk than 5-year endocrine therapy in high-risk populations (hazard ratio [HR] 0.27; 95 % CI 0.11-0.68; P = 0.0054). Postrelapse survival was significantly different in patients with DDFS ≥7 years (HR 0.24; 95 % CI 0.072-0.81; P = 0.021) and those with better response to first-line treatment (HR 0.072; 95 % CI, 0.058-0.90; P = 0.041). Patients with risk factors for late recurrence should be considered for extended endocrine therapy. Longer DDFS and response to first-line treatment may be a prognostic factor for postrelapse survival after late recurrence.

The variability of aggressiveness of grade 1 breast cancer

BACKGROUND

Grade 1 breast cancer represents the lowest grade of invasive breast cancer and is associated with a low risk of recurrence and distant metastasis. However, when grade 1 breast cancer is associated with lymph node involvement, the prognosis may be worse than that of grade 1 breast cancer without lymph node involvement.

METHOD

The study population included all patients who were managed in our institution between January 1, 2007 and December 31, 2013 for grade 1 breast cancer . We compared patients who had lymph node involvement to those who had no lymph node involvement.

RESULTS

During the study period 291 grade 1 carcinomas were included of which 23% had associated positive lymph node involvement. Overall survival did not differ significantly between patients without lymph node involvement and those with lymph node involvement, nor was there a significant difference in the risk of local recurrence free survival. However, a significant difference was found in survival without distant metastasis with a significant level of a p at 0.029.

CONCLUSION

Our findings confirm that tumor size and LVSI are strong predictors of axillary lymph node involvement, which is a key determinant of distant metastasis-free survival.

Nontherapeutic Risk Factors of Different Grouped Stage IIIC Breast Cancer Patients’ Mortality: A Study of the US Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Database

Objectives

Stage IIIC breast cancer, as a local advanced breast cancer, has a poor prognosis compared with that of early breast cancer. We further investigated the risk factors of mortality in stage IIIC primary breast cancer patients and their predictive value.

Methods

We extracted data from the US Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database of female patients with stage IIIC primary breast cancer (n = 1673) from January 2011 to December 2015.

Results

Hormone receptor negativity (P ≤ 0.001 and P ≤ 0.001, respectively), aggressive molecular typing (P ≤ 0.001 and P ≤ 0.001, respectively), high T stage (P ≤ 0.001 and P ≤ 0.001, respectively), a high number of positive lymph nodes (≥14) (P=0.005 and P=0.001, respectively), and lymph node ratio (≥0.8148) (P ≤ 0.001 and P ≤ 0.001, respectively) were associated with poor disease-specific survival. The indicators of disease-specific survival included estrogen receptor status, progesterone receptor status, molecular typing, T stage, number of positive lymph nodes, and lymph node ratio (P ≤ 0.001,P ≤ 0.001,P ≤ 0.001,P ≤ 0.001, P=0.002, and P ≤ 0.001, respectively).

Conclusion

Hormone receptor negativity, aggressive molecular typing, high T stage, high number of positive lymph nodes, and lymph node ratio are poor prognostic factors patients with stage IIIC primary breast cancer. The efficient indicators of disease-specific survival include estrogen receptor status, progesterone receptor status, molecular typing, T stage, number of positive lymph nodes, and lymph node ratio.

High SLC20A1 Expression Is Associated With Poor Prognosis for Radiotherapy of Estrogen Receptor-positive Breast Cancer

BACKGROUND/AIM

Radiotherapy is one of the main treatments for estrogen receptor-positive (ER+) breast cancer. However, in some ER+ breast cancer cases, radiotherapy is insufficient to inhibit progression and there is a lack of markers to predict radiotherapy insensitivity. Solute carrier family 20 member 1 (SLC20A1) is a sodium/inorganic phosphate symporter, which has been proposed to be a viable prognostic marker for luminal A and B types of ER+ breast cancer. The present study examined the possibility of SLC20A1 as a novel biomarker for the prediction of radiotherapy efficiency.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

The Molecular Taxonomy of Breast Cancer International Consortium dataset was downloaded from cBioportal and the prognosis of patients with high SLC20A1 expression (SLC20A1 ^high ) was compared with that of patients with low SLC20A1 expression, without or with radiotherapy and tumor stages I, II, and III, using the Kaplan-Meier method and multivariate Cox regression analyses of disease-specific and relapse-free survival.

RESULTS

Patients in the SLC20A1 ^high group with radiotherapy showed poor clinical outcomes in both luminal A and luminal B breast cancers. Furthermore, in luminal A breast cancer at tumor stage I, patients in the SLC20A1 ^high  group with radiotherapy also showed poor clinical outcomes. Therefore, these results suggest that radiotherapy is insufficient for patients in the SLC20A1 ^high group for both luminal A and B types, and especially for the luminal A type at tumor stage I.

CONCLUSION

SLC20A1 can be used as a prognostic marker for the prediction of the efficacy of radiotherapy for luminal A and luminal B breast cancers.

High expression of SLC20A1 is less effective for endocrine therapy and predicts late recurrence in ER-positive breast cancer

Estrogen receptor-positive (ER+) breast cancer intrinsically confers satisfactory clinical outcomes in response to endocrine therapy. However, a significant proportion of patients with ER+ breast cancer do not respond well to this treatment. Therefore, to evaluate the effects of endocrine therapy, there is a need for identification of novel markers that can be used at the time of diagnosis for predicting clinical outcomes, especially for early-stage and late recurrence. Solute carrier family 20 member 1 (SLC20A1) is a sodium/inorganic phosphate symporter that has been proposed to be a viable prognostic marker for the luminal A and luminal B types of ER+ breast cancer. In the present study, we examined the possible association of SLC20A1 expression with tumor staging, endocrine therapy and chemotherapy in the luminal A and luminal B subtypes of breast cancer. In addition, we analyzed the relationship between SLC20A1 expression and late recurrence in patients with luminal A and luminal B breast cancer following endocrine therapy. We showed that patients with higher levels of SLC20A1 expression (SLC20A1^high) exhibited poorer clinical outcomes in those with tumor stage I luminal A breast cancer. In addition, this SLC20A1^high subgroup of patients exhibited less responses to endocrine therapy, specifically in those with the luminal A and luminal B subtypes of breast cancer. However, patients with SLC20A1^high showed good clinical outcomes following chemotherapy. Patients tested to be in the SLC20A1^high group at the time of diagnosis also showed a higher incidence of recurrence compared with those with lower expression levels of SLC20A1, at >15 years for luminal A breast cancer and at 10–15 years for luminal B breast cancer. Therefore, we conclude that SLC20A1^high can be used as a prognostic biomarker for predicting the efficacy of endocrine therapy and late recurrence for ER+ breast cancer.

Comparison of Clinical and Pathological Factors Affecting Early and Late Recurrences in Patients with Operable Breast Cancer

In this study, we aimed to assess clinicopathological factors affecting early and late recurrences in patients with operable breast cancer. Patients with early (≤5 years) and late (>5 years) recurrences were assessed. Prognostic factors for disease-free survival (DFS) were also evaluated in patients with recurrence. A total of 854 patients were included. There were 432 and 205 patients in the early and late recurrence groups, respectively. In multivariate analyses, HER2+ disease, lymph node metastasis, lymphovascular invasion (LVI), and high tumor grade were associated with increased risk of early recurrence, while HER2+ disease and LVI were associated with decreased risk of late recurrence. In multivariate analyses, presence of HER2+ disease and triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) were poor prognostic factors for DFS in patients with early recurrence. Presence of LVI and perineural invasion (PNI) were poor prognostic factors for DFS in patients with late recurrence. Molecular subtypes and LVI were effective on the early and late recurrences. However, lymph node positivity and grade were only associated with the early recurrence. After 5 years, LVI and PNI were the prognostic factors for DFS.

Differentiation Between Benign and Metastatic Breast Lymph Nodes Using Apparent Diffusion Coefficients

The aim of this study was to determine the range of apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) values for benign axillary lymph nodes in contrast to malignant axillary lymph nodes, and to define the optimal ADC thresholds for three different ADC parameters (minimum, maximum, and mean ADC) in differentiating between benign and malignant lymph nodes. This retrospective study included consecutive patients who underwent breast MRI from January 2017–December 2020. Two-year follow-up breast imaging or histopathology served as the reference standard for axillary lymph node status. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) values for minimum, maximum, and mean ADC (min ADC, max ADC, and mean ADC) for benign vs malignant axillary lymph nodes were determined using the Wilcoxon rank sum test, and optimal ADC thresholds were determined using Youden’s Index. The final study sample consisted of 217 patients (100% female, median age of 52 years (range, 22–81), 110 with benign axillary lymph nodes and 107 with malignant axillary lymph nodes. For benign axillary lymph nodes, ADC values (×10⁻³ mm²/s) ranged from 0.522–2.712 for mean ADC, 0.774–3.382 for max ADC, and 0.071–2.409 for min ADC; for malignant axillary lymph nodes, ADC values (×10⁻³ mm²/s) ranged from 0.796–1.080 for mean ADC, 1.168–1.592 for max ADC, and 0.351–0.688 for min ADC for malignant axillary lymph nodes. While there was a statistically difference in all ADC parameters (p<0.001) between benign and malignant axillary lymph nodes, boxplots illustrate overlaps in ADC values, with the least overlap occurring with mean ADC, suggesting that this is the most useful ADC parameter for differentiating between benign and malignant axillary lymph nodes. The mean ADC threshold that resulted in the highest diagnostic accuracy for differentiating between benign and malignant lymph nodes was 1.004×10⁻³ mm²/s, yielding an accuracy of 75%, sensitivity of 71%, specificity of 79%, positive predictive value of 77%, and negative predictive value of 74%. This mean ADC threshold is lower than the European Society of Breast Imaging (EUSOBI) mean ADC threshold of 1.300×10⁻³ mm²/s, therefore suggesting that the EUSOBI threshold which was recently recommended for breast tumors should not be extrapolated to evaluate the axillary lymph nodes.

Combination of the 6-thioguanine and disulfiram/Cu synergistically inhibits proliferation of triple-negative breast cancer cells by enhancing DNA damage and disrupting DNA damage checkpoint

Because of the lack of specific molecular targeted therapies, triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) has high tumour recurrence and metastasis rates. It is urgent to develop novel chemotherapeutic strategies to improve patient survival. DNA damaging agents have been shown to sensitize cancer to genotoxic chemotherapies. We first found that 6-thioguanine (6-TG) can activate the NF-кB signalling pathway. Our results showed that NF-кB signalling was reduced when cells were treated with 6-TG/disulfiram (DSF)/Cu. DSF/Cu enhanced the 6-TG-mediated inhibition of proliferation. 6-TG/DSF/Cu inhibited cell cycle progression, causing cell cycle arrest in the S phase and G2/M phase. Moreover, the combined effect of 6-TG and DSF/Cu induced apoptosis, and either agent alone was able to induce apoptosis. The accumulation of γH2A indicated that DSF/Cu increased the DNA damage induced by 6-TG. Combined treatment with 6-TG and DSF/Cu synergistically reduced the levels of both phosphorylated and total ataxia-telangiectasia-mutated-and-Rad3-related kinase (ATR), suggesting that DSF/Cu promoted 6-TG-induced DNA damage by suppressing ATR protein kinases, therefore enhancing cell apoptosis. In conclusion, we demonstrate that the combination of 6-TG and DSF/Cu exerted a significant synergistic antitumour effect on human TNBC in vitro and in vivo by enhancing DNA damage and disrupting DNA damage checkpoints. We propose that this combination therapy could be a novel strategy for the treatment of TNBC.

The multigene classifiers 95GC/42GC/155GC for precision medicine in ER-positive HER2-negative early breast cancer

In clinical decision‐making, to decide the indication for adjuvant chemotherapy for estrogen receptor‐positive (ER+), human epidermal growth factor receptor‐2‐negative (HER2−), and node‐negative (n0) breast cancer patients, the accurate estimation of recurrence risk is essential. Unfortunately, conventional prognostic factors, such as tumor size, histological grade and ER, progesterone receptor (PR), and HER2 status as well as Ki67 index, are not sufficiently accurate for such estimation. Therefore, several multigene assays (MGAs) based on the mRNA expression analysis of multiple genes in tumor tissue have been developed to better predict patient prognosis. These assays include Oncotype DX, MammaPrint, PAM50, GGI, EndoPredict, and BCI. We developed Curebest™ 95‐Gene Classifier Breast (95GC) classifier, which is unique in that mRNA expression data of all 20 000 human genes are secondarily obtainable, as the 95GC assay is performed using Affymetrix microarray. This can capture mRNA expression of not only 95 genes but also every gene at once, and such gene expression data can be utilized by the other MGAs that we have developed, such as the 155GC, which is used for the prognostic prediction of ER+/HER2− breast cancer patients treated with neoadjuvant chemotherapy. We also developed the 42GC for predicting late recurrence in ER+/HER2− breast cancer patients. In this mini‐review, our recent attempt at the development of various MGAs, which is expected to facilitate the implementation of precision medicine in ER+/HER2− breast cancer patients, is presented with a special emphasis on 95GC.

Development of a Prognostic Tool to Guide the Decision to Extend Adjuvant Aromatase Inhibitors for up to Ten Years in Postmenopausal Early Breast Cancer Patients

Background: The selection of women with hormone receptor-positive (HR+) early breast cancer (EBC) at high risk of relapse after five years (yrs.) of adjuvant aromatase inhibitors (AIs) is crucial, as the benefit of extending AIs is counterbalanced by toxicity. We developed a clinicopathological tool to estimate the residual risk of relapse after five years of adjuvant AIs. Methods: The Institut de Cancérologie de l'Ouest (ICO) database was used to determine a prognostic score of post-five-year AI relapse. Cox regression models estimated our score's prognostic performance. Results: In total, 1105 women were included. Median follow-up was 44 months (IQR = 21-70) post-AI treatment. From the Cox models, we designed a dichotomous prognostic score including the number of macrometastases, age (>70 yrs. vs. ≤70 yrs.), tumor size (≥T2 vs. not), and mitotic activity (≥2 vs. not). Overall, 77.5% of patients were classified as being at low risk and 22.5% at high risk of late recurrence. Low-risk patients had a five- to ten-year local or distant recurrence risk of 7.6% (95% CI, 5.4% to 10.6%) as compared with 26.9% (95% CI, 19.9% to 35.7%) for the high-risk roup. Conclusion: In this study, we developed a simple tool to identify women at high risk of relapse despite completing five years of AIs.

Validation of Clinical Treatment Score post-5 years (CTS5) risk stratification in premenopausal breast cancer patients and Ki-67 labelling index

This study aimed to validate the Clinical Treatment Score post-5 years (CTS5)-based risk stratification in a cohort comprising pre- and postmenopausal patients with estrogen receptor (ER)–positive breast cancer. We investigated the clinicopathologic parameters including Ki-67 labelling index (LI) to identify factors affecting late distant recurrence (DR). Women with ER-positive breast cancer who were free of DR for 5 years were identified between January 2004 and December 2009. We investigated the risk of late DR (5–10 years) according to the CTS5 risk group. Cox regression analysis was used to determine the prognostic performance of CTS5 and identify factors associated with late DR. In all, 680 women were included. Of these, 379 (55.7%) were premenopausal and 301 (44.3%) were postmenopausal. At a median follow-up of 118 months, 32 women had late DR. CTS5 was a significant prognostic factor for late DR in both pre- and postmenopausal women. In the low CTS5 group, high Ki-67 LI (> 20%) was a significant risk factor for late DR. CTS5 is a useful tool for assessing the risk of late DR in pre- and postmenopausal women with ER-positive breast cancer. Extended endocrine therapy can be considered in patients with high Ki-67 LI (> 20%) in the low CTS5 group.

High FOXA1 protein expression might predict late recurrence in patients with estrogen-positive and HER2-negative breast cancer

BACKGROUND

Multi-gene expression assays have been developed with the aim of predicting late recurrence in patients with estrogen receptor (ER)-positive breast cancer. However, establishment of alternative markers based on immunohistochemistry is also important for achieving practical use. Based on our previous study, forkhead box A1 (FOXA1) protein was tested as a potentially useful predictive marker for late recurrence.

METHODS

117 patients with ER-positive HER2-negative invasive breast cancer who developed distant metastasis following curative surgery were retrospectively investigated. We also evaluated responsiveness to endocrine therapy according to FOXA1 expression. Furthermore, publicly available mRNA microarray data were analyzed to examine patterns of metastasis according to FOXA1 mRNA expression, employing the Kaplan-Meier plotter.

RESULTS

High expression of FOXA1 was an independent factor predicting long disease-free survival (DFS), along with small tumor size (p = 0.010 and 0.016, respectively). Discrimination of DFS was improved by combining these two factors, i.e., patients with FOXA1-high small tumors had the longest DFS while those with FOXA1-low large tumors had the shortest DFS. Moreover, we revealed that risk of distant metastasis started to increase after the completion of adjuvant endocrine therapy in patients with FOXA1-high tumors.

CONCLUSION

Among patients who developed distant metastasis, those with FOXA1-high tumors had significantly longer DFS. We believe our data to raise the possibility of FOXA1 being a useful predictive marker for late recurrence and to provide new insights into the biology of FOXA1-high breast cancers.

Comparative evaluation of nuclear and histological grades as prognostic factors for invasive breast cancer

BACKGROUND

Although tumor grade, defined by either the nuclear grade (NG) or the histological grade (HG), is widely accepted as one of the prognostic factors for breast cancer, there is a limited direct comparison between these two grading systems. The object of the current study was to compare their prognostic capabilities on the same specimen in a single institutional cohort.

METHODS

We collected data from 1125 patients with breast cancer who underwent surgery at Kaizuka City Hospital between 2002 and 2016 and analyzed the prognostic capability of NG and HG in comparison with other clinicopathological factors. Pathological diagnoses were performed by a single pathologist throughout the study period.

RESULTS

The median follow-up was 52.9 months. During the follow-up period, 103 distant recurrences were observed. The concordance rate of grades between NG and HG was 72.1%. The 5-year recurrence-free survival (RFS) rates for patients with NG1, NG2, and NG3 were 90.6%, 91.8%, and 82.2%, respectively, and the rates for patients with HG1, HG2, and HG3 were 92.7%, 88.6%, and 82.5%, respectively. Significant differences in RFS were noted among each grade for HG. However, this was not true for NG; a significant difference was not noted between NG1 and NG2. In terms of subtypes, both NG3 and HG3 were significantly associated with worse outcomes in patients with ER-positive/HER2-negative tumors.

CONCLUSIONS

Although not a few patients exhibited discordant results between NG and HG, both NG and HG predict outcomes for breast cancer patients, but the latter might appear to be superior as a three-grade classification scale.

Detection of disseminated tumor cells in bone marrow predict late recurrences in operable breast cancer patients

BACKGROUND

Operable breast cancer patients may experience late recurrences because of reactivation of dormant tumor cells within the bone marrow (BM). Identification of patients who would benefit from extended therapy is therefore needed.

METHODS

BM samples obtained pre- and post-surgery were previously analysed for presence of disseminated tumor cells (DTC) by a multimarker mRNA quantitative reverse-transcription PCR assay. Updated survival analyses were performed on all patient data (n = 191) and in a subgroup of patients alive and recurrence-free after 5 years (n = 156). DTC data were compared to the mitotic activity index (MAI) of the primary tumors. Median follow-up time was 15.3 years.

RESULTS

Among the 191 patients, 49 (25.65%) experienced systemic relapse, 24 (49%) within 5-18 years after surgery. MAI and pre- and post-operative DTC status had significant prognostic value based on Kaplan-Meier analyses and multiple Cox regression in the overall patient cohort. With exclusion of patients who relapsed or died within 5 years from surgery, only pre-operative DTC detection was an independent prognostic marker of late recurrences. High MAI (≥10) did not predict late recurrences or disease-specific mortality.

CONCLUSION

Pre-operative DTC detection, but not MAI status, predicts late recurrences in operable breast cancer.

Prediction of Late Breast Cancer-Specific Mortality in Recurrence-Free Breast Cancer Survivors Treated for Five Years with Tamoxifen

Purpose

The extension of endocrine therapy beyond 5 years for recurrence-free survivors of breast cancer improves survival; however, the issue on how to clinically identify appropriate candidates remains controversial. This study aimed to identify prognostic factors for breast-cancer-specific mortality in patients who have had 5 years of tamoxifen treatment and categorize subgroups based on the risk of death using combinations of these prognostic factors to assist in the clinical decision to perform further endocrine therapy.

Methods

In total, 3,158 patients with breast cancer were enrolled. Breast cancer-specific survival rates after 5 years of tamoxifen treatment were calculated, and associated prognostic factors were analyzed using a Cox proportional-hazards model.

Results

An age extreme at diagnosis (i.e., < 40 or ≥ 60 years), tumor size > 2 cm, and positive lymphovascular invasion were robust independent prognostic factors for late breast cancer-specific death in tamoxifen-treated patients (hazard ratio [HR] = 2.162, 1.739, and 1.993; p = 0.001, 0.047, and 0.011, respectively). Lymph node metastasis and progesterone receptor negativity had borderline significance in this regard (HR = 1.741 and 1.638, p = 0.099 and 0.061). The study patients were classified into four groups according to the number of prognostic indicators, i.e., low, intermediate, high, and extremely high risk. The additional 5- and 10-year cumulative risks of breast cancer-specific death were 0.8% and 1.5% in the low-risk group, 0.9% and 3.9% in the intermediate-risk group, 1.3% and 7.3% in the high-risk group, and 4.8% and 13.8% in the extremely high-risk group, respectively.

Conclusion

This new risk stratification system for late mortality in breast cancer can be used to identify the right candidates for extended endocrine therapy after 5 years of tamoxifen treatment.

Preexisting Commensal Dysbiosis Is a Host-Intrinsic Regulator of Tissue Inflammation and Tumor Cell Dissemination in Hormone Receptor-Positive Breast Cancer

It is unknown why some patients with hormone receptor-positive (HR⁺) breast cancer present with more aggressive and invasive disease. Metastatic dissemination occurs early in disease and is facilitated by cross-talk between the tumor and tissue environment, suggesting that undefined host-intrinsic factors enhance early dissemination and the probability of developing metastatic disease. Here, we have identified commensal dysbiosis as a host-intrinsic factor associated with metastatic dissemination. Using a mouse model of HR⁺ mammary cancer, we demonstrate that a preestablished disruption of commensal homeostasis results in enhanced circulating tumor cells and subsequent dissemination to the tumor-draining lymph nodes and lungs. Commensal dysbiosis promoted early inflammation within the mammary gland that was sustained during HR⁺ mammary tumor progression. Furthermore, dysbiosis enhanced fibrosis and collagen deposition both systemically and locally within the tumor microenvironment and induced significant myeloid infiltration into the mammary gland and breast tumor. These effects were recapitulated both by directly targeting gut microbes using nonabsorbable antibiotics and by fecal microbiota transplantation of dysbiotic cecal contents, demonstrating the direct impact of gut dysbiosis on mammary tumor dissemination. This study identifies dysbiosis as a preexisting, host-intrinsic regulator of tissue inflammation, myeloid recruitment, fibrosis, and dissemination of tumor cells in HR⁺ breast cancer. SIGNIFICANCE: Identification of commensal dysbiosis as a host-intrinsic factor mediating evolution of metastatic breast cancer allows for development of interventions or diagnostic tools for patients at highest risk for developing metastatic disease.See related commentary by Ingman, p. 3539.

Predicting metastasis in clinically negative axillary lymph nodes with minimum apparent diffusion coefficient value in luminal A-like breast cancer

BACKGROUND

We investigated the usefulness of the minimum ADC value of primary breast lesions for predicting axillary lymph node (LN) status in luminal A-like breast cancers with clinically negative nodes in comparison with the mean ADC.

METHODS

Forty-four luminal A-like breast cancers without axillary LN metastasis at preoperative clinical evaluation, surgically resected with sentinel LN biopsy, were retrospectively studied. Mean and minimum ADC values of each lesion were measured and statistically compared between LN positive (n = 12) and LN negative (n = 32) groups. An ROC curve was drawn to determine the best cutoff value to differentiate LN status. Correlations between mean and minimum ADC values and the number of metastatic axillary LNs were investigated.

RESULTS

Mean and minimum ADC values of breast lesions with positive LN were significantly lower than those with negative LN (mean 839.9 ± 110.9 vs. 1022.2 ± 250.0 × 10^- 6 mm²/s, p = 0.027, minimum 696.7 ± 128.0 vs. 925.0 ± 257.6 × 10^- 6 mm²/s, p = 0.004). The sensitivity and NPV using the best cutoff value from ROC using both mean and minimum ADC were 100%. AUC of the minimum ADC (0.784) was higher than that of the mean ADC (0.719). Statistically significant negative correlations were observed between both mean and minimum ADCs and number of positive LNs, with stronger correlation to minimum ADC than mean ADC.

CONCLUSIONS

The minimum ADC value of primary breast lesions predicts axillary LN metastasis in luminal A-like breast cancer with clinically negative nodes, with high sensitivity and high NPV.

Associations in tumor infiltrating lymphocytes between clinicopathological factors and clinical outcomes in estrogen receptor-positive/human epidermal growth factor receptor type 2 negative breast cancer

The value of assessing tumor infiltrating lymphocytes (TILs) in estrogen receptor (ER) positive/human epidermal growth factor receptor type 2 (HER2) negative breast cancer has yet to be determined. In the present study, a total of 184 cases with early distant recurrence detected within 5 years following the primary operation, 134 with late distant recurrence diagnosed following 5 years or longer and 321 controls without recurrence for >10 years following starting the initial treatment for ER-positive/HER2 negative breast cancer, registered in 9 institutions, were analyzed. The distributions of TILs and their clinical relevance were investigated. TIL distributions did not differ significantly among the early, late and no recurrence groups, employing a 30% cut-off point as a dichotomous variable. In those who had received adjuvant chemotherapy as well as endocrine therapy, a trend toward higher TIL proportions was detected when the early recurrence group was compared with the no recurrence group employing the 30% cut-off point (P=0.064). The TIL distributions were significantly associated with nodal metastasis (P=0.004), ER status (P=0.045), progesterone receptor (PgR) status (P=0.002), tumor grade (P=0.021), and the Ki67 labeling index (LI) (P=0.002) in the no recurrence group and with the Ki67 LI in the recurrence groups (P=0.002 in early recurrence group, P=0.023 in late recurrence group). High TIL distributions also predicted shorter survival time following the detection of recurrence (P=0.026). However, these prognostic interactions were not significant in multivariate analysis (P=0.200). The present retrospective study demonstrated no significant interaction between TIL proportions and the timing of recurrence. However, higher TIL proportions were observed in breast cancer patients with aggressive biological phenotypes, which tended to be more responsive to chemotherapy. The clinical relevance of stromal TILs for identifying patients who would likely benefit from additional therapies merits further investigation in a larger patient population.

Economic Evaluation of Letrozole for Early Breast Cancer in a Health Resource-Limited Setting

Objective

Long-term aromatase inhibitor (AI) therapy is expected to improve the health outcomes with high health resource consumption in early breast cancer. The aim of the study was to assess the cost-effectiveness of letrozole for postmenopausal women with estrogen receptor positive early breast cancer in a health resource-limited setting.

Methods

A Markov model was developed to project the lifetime outcomes based on the clinical course of early breast cancer. The clinical and utility data were derived from reported results. Costs were estimated from the perspective of Chinese health care. The quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) and incremental cost-effective ratio (ICER) were measured. Probabilistic sensitivity and one-way analyses were conducted.

Results

Compared to 5 years of tamoxifen therapy, 5 years of AI treatment with letrozole improved the QALYs (10.44 versus 10.84) and increased the lifetime costs (CNY ¥13,613 versus CNY ¥28,797), resulting in an ICER of CNY ¥38,092 /QALY. The ICER of 5 years of letrozole versus 2-3 years of tamoxifen and then letrozole was CNY ¥68,233 /QALY. Sensitivity analyses showed that the age of initiating adjuvant endocrine therapy was the most influential parameter.

Conclusions

In health resource-limited settings, adjuvant endocrine therapy with letrozole is a cost-effective strategy compared to tamoxifen in women with early breast cancer.

Construction of a novel multi-gene assay (42-gene classifier) for prediction of late recurrence in ER-positive breast cancer patients

PURPOSE

Prediction models for late (> 5 years) recurrence in ER-positive breast cancer need to be developed for the accurate selection of patients for extended hormonal therapy. We attempted to develop such a prediction model focusing on the differences in gene expression between breast cancers with early and late recurrence.

METHODS

For the training set, 779 ER-positive breast cancers treated with tamoxifen alone for 5 years were selected from the databases (GSE6532, GSE12093, GSE17705, and GSE26971). For the validation set, 221 ER-positive breast cancers treated with adjuvant hormonal therapy for 5 years with or without chemotherapy at our hospital were included. Gene expression was assayed by DNA microarray analysis (Affymetrix U133 plus 2.0).

RESULTS

With the 42 genes differentially expressed in early and late recurrence breast cancers in the training set, a prediction model (42GC) for late recurrence was constructed. The patients classified by 42GC into the late recurrence-like group showed a significantly (P = 0.006) higher late recurrence rate as expected but a significantly (P = 1.62 × E-13) lower rate for early recurrence than non-late recurrence-like group. These observations were confirmed for the validation set, i.e., P = 0.020 for late recurrence and P = 5.70 × E-5 for early recurrence.

CONCLUSION

We developed a unique prediction model (42GC) for late recurrence by focusing on the biological differences between breast cancers with early and late recurrence. Interestingly, patients in the late recurrence-like group by 42GC were at low risk for early recurrence.

Clinicopathologic features of hormone-receptor-positive breast cancer patients with late recurrence

The number of long-term breast cancer survivors with a risk of late recurrence is increasing. Hormone-receptor-positive patients have greater risks of late recurrence. Although several studies demonstrated that extended adjuvant endocrine therapy reduces the incidence of late recurrence, it remains unclear which hormone-receptor-positive patients have greater risks of late recurrence. Hormone-receptor-positive breast cancer patients were retrospectively selected from the prospective database of primary breast cancer patients treated at Keio University Hospital from January 1989 to December 2003. Late recurrence was defined as initial recurrence after 5 years from the initial surgery. We evaluated the clinicopathologic features of breast cancer patients with late recurrence. At a median follow-up of 10.9 years (range, 5.1-23.8), 371 patients had no recurrence, 90 had early recurrence (within 5 years), and 83 had late recurrence. Multivariate analysis revealed that >4 involved lymph nodes were significant risk factors for late recurrence (P < .001), whereas 1-3 positive nodes were not. Endocrine therapy significantly reduced the incidence of late recurrence (P < .001). After menopause, adjuvant therapy with aromatase inhibitors resulted in longer disease-free survival than tamoxifen (10-year disease-free survival: 97.6% vs 89.7%, P = .0955). High nodal involvement was significantly correlated with late recurrence in hormone-receptor-positive breast cancer patients. Hormone-receptor-positive breast cancer patients who receive adjuvant endocrine therapy with tamoxifen alone might be candidates for extended endocrine therapy.

PIK3CA mutation, reduced AKT serine 473 phosphorylation, and increased ERα serine 167 phosphorylation are positive prognostic indicators in postmenopausal estrogen receptor-positive early breast cancer

Although endocrine therapy is the most important treatment option in estrogen receptor (ER)-positive breast cancer, new strategies, such as molecular targeted agents together with endocrine therapy are required to improve survival. PIK3CA is the most frequent mutated gene in ER-positive early breast cancers, and PIK3CA mutation status is reported to affect activation of AKT and ERα. Moreover, recent studies demonstrate that patients had a better prognosis when tumors expressed ER, androgen receptor (AR), and vitamin D receptor (VDR). In this study, we examined expression of AR and VDR, phosphorylation of AKT serine (Ser) 473 (AKT phospho-Ser473) and ERα Ser167 (ERα phospho-Ser167) by immunohistochemistry in ER-positive, HER2-negative early breast cancer. PIK3CA gene mutations were also detected in genomic DNA extracted from tumor blocks. Correlations between these biological markers, clinicopathological factors and prognosis were analyzed. Levels of AKT phospho-Ser473 were significantly higher in premenopausal women than in postmenopausal women. In contrast, AR expression was significantly higher in postmenopausal women than in premenopausal women. PIK3CA mutations were detected in 47% in premenopausal women and 47% in postmenopausal women. Postmenopausal women with PIK3CA wild-type tumors had significantly worse disease-free survival than patients with PIK3CA mutant tumors. Low levels of AKT phospho-Ser473 and high levels of ERα phospho-Ser167 were strongly associated with increased disease-free survival in postmenopausal women. Evaluation of ERα activation, in addition to PIK3CA mutation status, might be helpful in identifying patients who are likely to benefit from endocrine therapy alone versus those who are not in postmenopausal ER-positive early breast cancer.

Breast carcinoma with 21-gene recurrence score lower than 18: rate of locoregional recurrence in a large series with clinical follow-up

BACKGROUND

The 21-gene recurrence score (RS) assay determines the benefit of adding chemotherapy to endocrine therapy for patients with early stage, estrogen receptor (ER)-positive, HER2-negative breast cancer. The RS risk groups predict the likelihood of distant recurrence and have recently been associated with an increased risk of locoregional recurrence (LRR). This study analyzed clinicopathologic features of patients with low RS and LRR.

METHODS

In our institutional database, we identified 1396 consecutive female patients with lymph node negative, ER+/HER2- invasive breast carcinoma and low RS (<18) results, treated at our center from 2008 to 2013. We collected data on clinicopathologic features, treatment and outcome.

RESULTS

The median patient age was 57 years (range 22-90). The median tumor size was 1.2 cm (range 0.3-5.8). Overall, 66.6% (930/1396) women were treated with breast conserving surgery (BCS) and radiation therapy, 3.4% (48/1396) with BCS alone, 29.7% (414/1396) with total mastectomy, and 0.3% (4/1396) with total mastectomy and radiation therapy. Most patients (84.8%; 1184/1396) received endocrine therapy alone, 12.1% (169/1396) were treated with chemotherapy plus endocrine therapy, and only 3.1% (43/1396) received no systemic therapy. At a median follow-up of 52 months, 0.9% (13/1396) of patients developed LRR. Sites of LRR included the ipsilateral breast (n = 8), chest wall (n = 3), axillary node (n = 1), and internal mammary node (n = 1). All patients with LRR had negative resection margins at the initial surgery. The rate of LRR in patients treated with adjuvant endocrine therapy alone was 0.7% (8/1184). All eight patients received standard local treatment. Three patients had lymphovascular invasion but no other significant risk factors for LRR were identified.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study of node negative, ER+/HER2- breast cancer patients with low RS observed extremely low rates of LRR: 0.9% (13/1396) in the whole cohort and 0.7% (8/1184) in patients treated with endocrine therapy alone. As the largest series to date, we report detailed clinicopathologic data and clinical outcomes of this cohort and provide a comprehensive characterization of patients who developed LRR.

Bone morphogenetic proteins, breast cancer, and bone metastases: striking the right balance

Bone morphogenetic proteins (BMPs) belong to the TGF-β super family, and are essential for the regulation of foetal development, tissue differentiation and homeostasis and a multitude of cellular functions. Naturally, this has led to the exploration of aberrance in this highly regulated system as a key factor in tumourigenesis. Originally identified for their role in osteogenesis and bone turnover, attention has been turned to the potential role of BMPs in tumour metastases to, and progression within, the bone niche. This is particularly pertinent to breast cancer, which commonly metastasises to bone, and in which studies have revealed aberrations of both BMP expression and signalling, which correlate clinically with breast cancer progression. Ultimately a BMP profile could provide new prognostic disease markers. As the evidence suggests a role for BMPs in regulating breast tumour cellular function, in particular interactions with tumour stroma and the bone metastatic microenvironment, there may be novel therapeutic potential in targeting BMP signalling in breast cancer. This review provides an update on the current knowledge of BMP abnormalities and their implication in the development and progression of breast cancer, particularly in the disease-specific bone metastasis.

High density of CD204-positive macrophages predicts worse clinical prognosis in patients with breast cancer

Recent studies have indicated the clinical significance of tumor‐associated macrophages (TAM) in several malignant tumors including breast cancer. Although recent studies have focused on CD68‐positive or CD163‐positive TAM in breast cancer, no study has investigated the significance of CD204‐positive TAM in breast cancer. We found that CD204 expression on macrophages was evaluated following stimulation with the conditioned medium (CM) of breast cancer cell lines. Paraffin sections of 149 breast cancer samples which were diagnosed as invasive ductal carcinoma were immunohistochemically analyzed for CD68, CD163 and CD204 expression. The results of analyses indicated that a high number of CD204‐positive TAM was associated with worse clinical prognoses, including relapse‐free survival, distant relapse‐free survival and breast cancer‐specific survival; however, neither the numbers of CD68‐positive or CD163‐positive TAM were associated with clinical courses. Of the clinicopathological factors investigated, estrogen receptor, Ki‐67 index, hormone subtype, and histological grade were significantly related to the increased number of CD163‐positive and CD204‐positive TAM. These data indicate the clinical significance of CD204‐positive TAM in breast cancer progression and CD204 is a marker for predicting clinical prognosis in breast cancer.

A Comprehensive Model for Predicting Recurrence and Survival in Cases of Chinese Postoperative Invasive Breast Cancer

We investigated relationships between clinical pathologic data, molecular biomarkers and prognosis of invasive breast cancer based on a Chinese population. Immunohistochemistry (IHC) was used to assess the status of ER, PR, HER-2 and Ki-67, with fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) performed to further confirm HER-2 positivity with an equivocal result (IHC 2+). Subsequently, Kaplan-Meier univariate and multivariate COX regression analyses of ER, PR, HER-2, Ki-67, clinical features, therapeutic status and follow-up data were performed according to the establishment principle of the Nottingham prognostic index (NPI). From this study, age, tumor size, lymph node status, ER, HER-2, Ki-67 status were found to be associated with prognosis. Eventually, a prognostic model of (PI= (1.5×age) - size + (0.1×lymph node status) - (0.5×ER) + (2×HER-2) - (0.2×Ki-67)) was established with 288 randomly selected patients and verified with another 100 cases with invasive breast cancer. Pearson correlation analysis demonstrated a significant positive correlation index of 0.376 (P=0.012<0.05) between the prognostic index (PI) and actual prognosis. Remarkably, the consistency with the model predicted recurrence was 93% in the validation set. Therefore, it appears feasible to predict the prognosis of individuals with invasive breast cancer and to determine optimal therapeutic strategy with this model.

Post-relapse survival in patients with the early and late distant recurrence in estrogen receptor-positive HER2-negative breast cancer

BACKGROUND

Few studies have been performed on post-relapse survival in patients with the early and late distant recurrence in estrogen receptor (ER)-positive, HER2-negative breast cancer.

METHODS

A total of 205 patients with the early distant recurrence and 134 patients with the late distant recurrence of ER-positive, HER2-negative breast cancer who had undergone breast surgery or neoadjuvant chemotherapy between January 2000 and December 2004 were registered from nine institutions. Prognostic factors for post-relapse survival in patients with the early and late recurrence were analyzed.

RESULTS

Post-relapse survival was significantly longer in patients with the late recurrence than in patients with the early recurrence. Predictive factors for post-relapse survival in patients with the early recurrence were lack of adjuvant chemotherapy, a long disease-free interval, and long durations of endocrine therapies and chemotherapies after relapse. In patients with the late recurrence, post-relapse survival was significantly improved for those individuals with one metastatic organ at relapse and individuals who were treated with the first-line and subsequent endocrine therapies for prolonged periods. Moreover, ER expression in primary breast tumors of late recurrence patients was significantly higher with a duration of the first-line endocrine therapy >6 months than in those with a duration ≤6 months.

CONCLUSION

Predictors for prognosis after relapse differed between patients with the early and late distant recurrence. Endocrine responsiveness after relapse is a key factor for improved post-relapse survival, and it is thus important to establish whether metastatic tumors are endocrine-resistant in ER-positive, HER2-negative recurrent breast cancer.

Differences in expression of the cancer stem cell marker aldehyde dehydrogenase 1 among estrogen receptor-positive/human epidermal growth factor receptor type 2-negative breast cancer cases with early, late, and no recurrence

Background

The significance of the expression of aldehyde dehydrogenase 1 (ALDH1), a cancer stem cell marker, for predicting the recurrence of estrogen receptor (ER)-positive/human epidermal growth factor receptor type 2 (HER2)-negative breast cancer is still poorly understood. The value of ALDH1 in predicting the time of recurrence remains unknown.

Methods

In total, 184 patients with early distant recurrence, 134 patients with late distant recurrence, and 321 control patients without recurrence for more than 10 years after starting initial treatment for ER-positive/HER2-negative breast cancer, registered in 9 institutions, were analyzed. We assessed relationships between ALDH1 and other clinicopathological features, and ALDH1 expression was compared among the three groups. The relationship between ALDH1 expression and overall survival after recurrence was also evaluated in each group.

Results

The rates of ALDH1 expression positivity (more than 1 %) in the early, late, and no recurrence groups were 18.4 %, 13.4 %, and 8.4 %, respectively. ALDH1 expression correlated significantly with lymph node metastases (p = 0.048) and the Ki-67 labeling index (p < 0.001) in the early recurrence group. Multivariate analysis revealed ALDH1 expression to be significantly higher in the early recurrence group than in the no recurrence group (adjusted OR 2.140, 95 % CI 1.144–4.003, p = 0.016). Moreover, there was a significant difference in ALDH1 expression between the early and no recurrence groups receiving adjuvant endocrine therapy and chemotherapy (adjusted OR 4.625, 95 % CI 1.881–12.474, p < 0.001). However, there was no difference in ALDH1 expression between the late and no recurrence groups in univariate analysis (OR 1.507, 95 % CI 0.738–2.998, p = 0.253). In multivariate analysis, ALDH1 was not a factor independently predicting overall survival after the detection of recurrence (adjusted OR 1.451, 95 % CI 0.985–2.085, p = 0.059).

Conclusions

Among patients with ER-positive/HER2-negative breast cancer, ALDH1 expression was more common in those with early recurrence, and this expression was found to be associated with a more aggressive breast cancer phenotype than that in the patients without recurrence. Further study is needed to clarify the prognostic significance of the heterogeneity of cancer stem cells and to confirm their role in resistance to chemotherapy.