Basu S, Shao H, Luo J, Lipska K, Suda KJ, Yudkin JS. Estimates of insulin needs and dispensation given wastage, alternative glycemic targets, and non-insulin therapies in US populations with type 2 diabetes mellitus: A microsimulation study.
J Diabetes Complications 2021;
35:107839. [PMID:
33455873 DOI:
10.1016/j.jdiacomp.2020.107839]
[Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/28/2020] [Revised: 12/11/2020] [Accepted: 12/16/2020] [Indexed: 11/18/2022]
Abstract
AIMS
Registries and health plans estimate insulin need for population health metrics. We sought to identify how such estimates affect population- and individual-level estimates of over- and under-treatment.
METHODS
We developed a microsimulation comparing estimated insulin need to dispensation using the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES, 2005-2016, N= 2832) and Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS, 2005-2016, N = 29,615).
RESULTS
From NHANES, ~21.6% of people with type 2 diabetes would require insulin to achieve a HbA1c target of 7% after maximum titration of two non-insulins (60.7 IU/person/day, or 84,629,833 vials of 1000 IU in the US). From MEPS, we observed 57.4 IU/person/day of insulin dispensed (81,585,842 vials). About 29% of people were dispensed at least two standard deviations less than their estimated need, and 22% at least two standard deviations more than estimated need. Population-level need estimates reduced 39.4% if liberalizing HbA1c targets to 8% for people ≥75 years old.
CONCLUSIONS
Estimated insulin needs of people with type 2 diabetes in the U.S. are consistent with their dispensed insulin at the population level, but are sensitive to HbA1c targets for older adults, and conceal under- and over-treated subpopulations.
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