Clinicians' Perspectives on Cure in Adult Patients with Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia with Minimal Residual Disease: A Delphi Study

Measurable Residual Disease Testing in Multiple Myeloma Routine Clinical Practice: A Modified Delphi Study

We used a modified Delphi approach to establish areas of consensus and nonconsensus regarding the utility of determining measurable residual disease (MRD) to assess multiple myeloma (MM) treatment response, which may inform disease management and design of future clinical trials. This modified Delphi study incorporated 2 iterative rounds of surveys to evaluate the opinions of an expert panel of 61 practicing hematological oncologists from across 14 countries in Europe concerning the use of MRD testing in MM management. Survey 1 assessed experts' opinions on MRD testing in different clinical situations and associated challenges. Survey 2 focused on the lack of consensus areas identified in survey 1. Consensus to an individual question was defined a priori as 75% agreement or disagreement by the panel. From the 2 rounds of surveys, the experts reached consensus agreement that MRD testing should be performed in newly diagnosed or relapsed patients who achieved complete response (CR) or better after transplantation. In transplant-ineligible patients, experts recommended MRD testing in those who are ≤70 years old and in CR. If a patient was previously positive on positron-emission tomography and computed tomography (PET/CT), both MRD and PET/CT should be assessed at CR. MRD testing should be performed ≤6 months after transplantation and every 6-12 months in continuously treated patients in CR. There was no consensus on making treatment decisions based on MRD status. MRD testing is an important component of clinical management in MM. Additional data will further clarify the role of MRD in guiding treatment decisions.

Artificial intelligence based personalized predictive survival among colorectal cancer patients

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Colorectal cancer is a major health concern. It is now the third most common cancer and the fourth leading cause of cancer mortality worldwide. The aim of this study was to evaluate the performance of machine learning algorithms for predicting survival of colorectal cancer patients 1 to 5 years after diagnosis, and identify the most important variables.

METHODS

A sample of 1236 patients diagnosed with colorectal cancer and 118 predictor variables has been used. The outcome of interest was a binary variable indicating whether the patient survived the number of years in question or not. 20 predictor variables were selected using mutual information score with the outcome. We implemented 11 machine learning algorithms and evaluated their performance with a 5 by 2-fold cross-validation with stratified folds and with paired Student's t-tests. We compared the results with the Kaplan-Meier estimator and Cox's proportional hazard regression.

RESULTS

Using the 20 most important predictor variables for each of the survival years, the logistic regression algorithm achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.850 (0.014 SD, 0.840-0.860 95 % CI) for the 1-year, and 0.872 (0.014 SD, 0.861-0.882 95% CI) for the 5-year survival prediction. Using only the 5 most important predictor variables, the corresponding values are 0.793 (0.020 SD, 0.778-0.807 95% CI) and 0.794 (0.011 SD, 0.785-0.802 95% CI). The most important variables for 1-year prediction were number of R residual, M distant metastasis, overall stage, probable recurrence within 5 years, and tumour length, whereas for 5-year prediction the most important were probable recurrence within 5 years, R residual, M distant metastasis, number of positive lymph nodes, and palliative chemotherapy. Biomarkers do not appear among the top 20 most important ones. For all survival intervals, the probability of the top model agrees with the Kaplan-Meier estimate, both in the interval of one standard deviation and in the 95% confidence interval.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings suggest that machine learning algorithms can predict the survival probability of colorectal cancer patients and can be used to inform the patients and assist decision-making in clinical care management. In addition, this study unveils the most essential variables for estimating survival short- and long-term among patients with Colorectal cancer.

Development of a core dataset for child injury surveillance: a modified Delphi study in China

Background

Understanding the occurrence and severity of child injuries is the cornerstone of preventing child injuries. Currently, there is no standardized child injury surveillance dataset in China.

Methods

Multistage consultation by a panel of Chinese experts in child injury to determine items to include in the core dataset (CDS) was performed. The experts participated in two rounds of the modified Delphi method comprising a consultation questionnaire investigation (Round 1) and a face-to-face panel discussion (Round 2). Final consensus was established based on the opinions of the experts regarding the modified CDS information collection items. Enthusiasm and authority exhibited by the experts were evaluated by the response rate and using the expert authority coefficient, respectively.

Results

The expert panel included 16 experts in Round 1 and 15 experts in Round 2. The experts during both rounds had a high degree of authority, with an average authority coefficient of 0.86. The enthusiasm of the experts was 94.12%, and the proportion of suggestions reached 81.25% in Round 1 of the modified Delphi method. The draft CDS evaluated in Round 1 included 24 items, and expert panelists could submit recommendations to add items. Based on findings in Round 1, four additional items, including nationality, residence, type of family residence, and primary caregiver were added to the draft of the CDS for Round 2. After Round 2, consensus was reached on 32 items arranged into four domains-general demographic information, injury characteristics, clinical diagnosis and treatment, and injury outcome-to include in the final CDS.

Conclusion

The development of a child injury surveillance CDS could contribute to standardized data collection, collation, and analysis. The CDS developed here could be used to identify actionable characteristics of child injury to assist health policymakers in designing evidence-based injury prevention interventions.

Working Toward Consensus on Sporadic Vestibular Schwannoma Care: A Modified Delphi Study

OBJECTIVE

To address variance in clinical care surrounding sporadic vestibular schwannoma, a modified Delphi study was performed to establish a general framework to approach vestibular schwannoma care. A multidisciplinary panel of experts was established with deliberate representation from key stakeholder societies. External validity of the final statements was assessed through an online survey of registered attendees of the 8th Quadrennial International Conference on Vestibular Schwannoma.

STUDY DESIGN

Modified Delphi method.

METHODS

The panel consisted of 16 vestibular schwannoma experts (8 neurotology and 8 neurosurgery) and included delegates representing the AAOHNSF, AANS/CNS tumor section, ISRS, and NASBS. The modified Delphi method encompassed a four-step process, comprised of one prevoting round to establish a list of focus areas and three subsequent voting rounds to successively refine individual statements and establish levels of consensus. Thresholds for achieving moderate consensus, at ≥67% agreement, and strong consensus, at ≥80% agreement, were determined a priori. All voting was performed anonymously via the Qualtrics online survey tool and full participation from all panel members was required before procession to the next voting round.

RESULTS

Through the Delphi process, 103 items were developed encompassing hearing preservation (N = 49), tumor control and imaging surveillance (N = 20), preferred treatment (N = 24), operative considerations (N = 4), and complications (N = 6). As a result of item refinement, moderate (4%) or strong (96%) consensus was achieved in all 103 final statements. Seventy-nine conference registrants participated in the online survey to assess external validity. Among these survey respondents, moderate (N = 21, 20%) or strong (N = 73, 71%) consensus was achieved in 94 of 103 (91%) statements, and no consensus was reached in 9 (9%). Of the four items with moderate consensus by the expert panel, one had moderate consensus by the conference participants and three had no consensus.

CONCLUSION

This modified Delphi study on sporadic vestibular schwannoma codifies 100% consensus within a multidisciplinary expert panel and is further supported by 91% consensus among an external group of clinicians who regularly provide care for patients with vestibular schwannoma. These final 103 statements address clinically pragmatic items that have direct application to everyday patient care. This document is not intended to define standard of care or drive insurance reimbursement, but rather to provide a general framework to approach vestibular schwannoma care for providers and patients.

Long-term survival of patients with relapsed/refractory acute lymphoblastic leukemia treated with blinatumomab

Background

Blinatumomab is a CD19 BiTE (bispecific T‐cell engager) immuno‐oncology therapy that mediates the lysis of cells expressing CD19.

Methods

A pooled analysis of long‐term follow‐up data from 2 phase 2 studies that evaluated blinatumomab in heavily pretreated adults with Philadelphia chromosome–negative, relapsed/refractory B‐cell precursor acute lymphoblastic leukemia was conducted.

Results

A total of 259 patients were included in the analysis. The median overall survival (OS) among all patients, regardless of response, was 7.5 months (95% confidence interval [CI], 5.5‐8.5 months); the median follow‐up time for OS was 36.0 months (range, 0.3‐60.8 months). The median relapse‐free survival (RFS) among patients who achieved a complete remission (CR) or complete remission with partial hematologic recovery (CRh) in the first 2 cycles (n = 123) was 7.7 months (95% CI, 6.2‐10.0 months); the median follow‐up time for RFS was 35.0 months (range, 9.5‐59.5 months). OS and RFS plateaued with 3‐year rates of 17.7% and 23.4%, respectively. The cumulative incidence function of the time to relapse, with death not due to relapse considered a competing risk, for patients who achieved a CR/CRh within 2 cycles of treatment also plateaued with a 3‐year relapse rate of 59.3%. For patients who achieved a CR/CRh with blinatumomab followed by allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation while in continuous CR, the median OS was 18.1 months (95% CI, 10.3‐30.0 months) with a 3‐year survival rate of 37.2%.

Conclusions

These data suggest that long‐term survival is possible after blinatumomab therapy.

Lay Summary

Immuno‐oncology therapies such as blinatumomab activate the patient's own immune system to kill cancer cells.

This study combined follow‐up data from 2 blinatumomab‐related clinical trials to evaluate long‐term survival in patients with relapsed and/or refractory B‐cell precursor acute lymphoblastic leukemia at high risk for unfavorable outcomes.

Among patients who achieved a deep response with blinatumomab, one‐third lived 3 years or longer. These findings suggest that long‐term survival is possible after treatment with blinatumomab.

Patients achieving remission after blinatumomab can have a durable response. The survival plateau indicates a high probability of a cure in those patients responding to blinatumomab and alive after 3 years.