Comparison of different noninvasive diagnostic methods for biliary atresia: a meta-analysis

Proteomics Defines Plasma Biomarkers for the Early Diagnosis of Biliary Atresia

Early diagnosis of biliary atresia (BA) is crucial for improving the chances of survival and preserving the liver function of pediatric patients with BA. Herein, we performed proteomics analysis using data-independent acquisition (DIA) and parallel reaction monitoring (PRM) to explore potential biomarkers for the early diagnosis of BA compared to other non-BA jaundice cases. Consequently, we detected and validated differential protein expression in the plasma of patients with BA compared to the plasma of patients with intrahepatic cholestasis. Bioinformatics analysis revealed the enriched biological processes characteristic of BA by identifying the differential expression of specific proteins. Signaling pathway analysis revealed changes in the expression levels of proteins associated with an alteration in immunoglobulin levels, which is indicative of immune dysfunction in BA. The combination of polymeric immunoglobulin receptor expression and immunoglobulin lambda variable chain (IGL c2225_light_IGLV1-47_IGLJ2), as revealed via machine learning, provided a useful early diagnostic model for BA, with a sensitivity of 0.8, specificity of 1, accuracy of 0.89, and area under the curve value of 0.944. Thus, our study identified a possible effective plasma biomarker for the early diagnosis of BA and could help elucidate the underlying mechanisms of BA.

The magnetic resonance imaging and age-adjusted matrix metalloproteinase-7 assist the diagnosis of biliary atresia

BACKGROUND

We investigated the utilities of the liver-to-psoas apparent diffusion coefficient ratios (LTPAR) yielded by diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging (DWMRI) and the age-adjusted serum matrix metalloproteinase-7 (MMP-7) for the diagnosis of biliary atresia (BA) in cholestatic infants.

METHODS

In total, 170 cholestatic infants were recruited, of whom 50 (29.41%) were diagnosed with BA after cholestatic workups. The LTPAR and MMP7 levels were assessed.

RESULTS

The LTPAR was significantly lower in BA infants, and the age-adjusted MMP7 ratio was significantly higher, compared to other cholestatic infants (both p < 0.001). Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis yielded a cutoff > 0.1 ng/mL.day for the age-adjusted MMP-7 ratio, and an LTPAR < 1.01 for the optimal prediction of BA (both p < 0.001). Univariate logistic regression analysis revealed that both an age-adjusted MMP-7 ratio > 0.1 ng/mL.day and an LTPAR < 1.01 were significant predictors of BA among cholestatic infants (odds ratio = 30.98 and 13.28; p < 0.001 and < 0.001, respectively). The significance of the age-adjusted MMP-7 ratio and the LTPAR persisted on multivariate logistic regression analysis after adjusting for sex and the serum gamma-glutamyl transferase level (p < 0.001 and < 0.001, respectively). The negative predictive values (NPVs) for BA were 91.49% and 94.17%, respectively, for the LTPAR and age-adjusted MMP-7 ratio.

CONCLUSION

The age-adjusted MMP-7 ratio and the LTPAR are both significant non-invasive predictors of BA. The consideration of both serum and imaging parameters may enhance BA diagnostic performance in cholestatic infants.

The accuracy of magnetic resonance cholangiopancreatography in the diagnosis of biliary atresia in preterm infants with cholestasis

BACKGROUND

Magnetic resonance cholangiopancreatography (MRCP) is a useful and non-invasive method to diagnose biliary atresia (BA) in term infants, however few studies have investigated its use in preterm infants. This study aimed to evaluate the accuracy of MRCP in the diagnosis of BA in preterm infants with cholestasis.

METHODS

Infants aged less than 6 months who received MRCP for cholestasis at a tertiary medical center were enrolled from 2011 to 2020. Demographic and laboratory data were retrospectively obtained. One pediatric radiologist reviewed the MRCP images. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), and accuracy of MRCP to diagnose BA based on surgical proof or at least 6 months of follow-up were assessed.

RESULTS

A total of 80 infants (36 preterm and 44 term) were analyzed. The mean post-chronological age was 1.8 months, and the female-to-male ratio was 0.78. Six (16.7%) preterm and 16 (36.4%) term infants were confirmed to have BA. BA was obscured by a choledochal cyst preoperatively in two term infants. In the preterm infants, the sensitivity, specificity, PPV, NPV, and accuracy of MRCP to diagnose BA were 100%, 77%, 46%, 100%, and 81%, respectively, compared to 81%, 86%, 76%, 89%, and 84% in the term infants. Using MRCP to differentiate BA from other cholestasis in the preterm infants had superior sensitivity (100% vs. 81%) and NPV (100% vs. 89%), and lower specificity (77% vs. 86%) and PPV (46% vs. 76%) than in the term infants.

CONCLUSIONS

Negative MRCP findings can be used to exclude BA in preterm infants with cholestasis based on a favorable NPV.

Diagnostic Efficacy of Advanced Ultrasonography Imaging Techniques in Infants with Biliary Atresia (BA): A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

The early diagnosis of biliary atresia (BA) in cholestatic infants is critical to the success of the treatment. Intraoperative cholangiography (IOC), an invasive imaging technique, is the current strategy for the diagnosis of BA. Ultrasonography has advanced over recent years and emerging techniques such as shear wave elastography (SWE) have the potential to improve BA diagnosis. This review sought to evaluate the diagnostic efficacy of advanced ultrasonography techniques in the diagnosis of BA. Six databases (CINAHL, Medline, PubMed, Google Scholar, Web of Science (core collection), and Embase) were searched for studies assessing the diagnostic performance of advanced ultrasonography techniques in differentiating BA from non-BA causes of infantile cholestasis. The meta-analysis was performed using Meta-DiSc 1.4 and Comprehensive Meta-analysis v3 software. Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies tool version 2 (QUADAS-2) assessed the risk of bias. Fifteen studies consisting of 2185 patients (BA = 1105; non-BA = 1080) met the inclusion criteria. SWE was the only advanced ultrasonography technique reported and had a good pooled diagnostic performance (sensitivity = 83%; specificity = 77%; AUC = 0.896). Liver stiffness indicators were significantly higher in BA compared to non-BA patients (p < 0.000). SWE could be a useful tool in differentiating BA from non-BA causes of infantile cholestasis. Future studies to assess the utility of other advanced ultrasonography techniques are recommended.

[Diagnostic Imaging of Biliary Atresia]

Biliary atresia is a rare but significant cause of neonatal cholestasis. An early and accurate diagnosis is important for proper management and prognosis. To diagnose biliary atresia, various imaging studies using ultrasonography, MRI, hepatobiliary scans, and cholangiography can be performed, although ultrasonography is more important for initial imaging studies. In this article, we review the findings of biliary atresia from various imaging modalities, including ultrasonography, MRI, hepatobiliary scans, and cholangiography. The known key imaging features include abnormal gallbladder size and shape, periportal thickening visible as a 'triangular cord' sign, invisible common bile duct, increased hepatic arterial flow, and combined anomalies. Aside from the imaging findings of biliary atresia, we also reviewed the diagnostic difficulty in the early neonatal period and the role of imaging in predicting hepatic fibrosis. We hope that this review will aid in the diagnosis of biliary atresia.

The Value of Hepatic Scintigraphy in the Diagnosis of Biliary Atresia

Introduction

Biliary Atresia (BA) requires prompt diagnosis and surgical intervention to optimize its outcome. The aim of this study was to evaluate the accuracy of EHIDA in distinguishing between BA and other causes of cholestatic jaundice.

Methods

This was a retrospective study of all patients who underwent EHIDA in a tertiary center from 1997 to 2019. The sensitivity, specificity, Negative Predictive Value (NPV) and Positive Predictive Value (PPV) of EHIDA were evaluated. Factors that can potentially affect its accuracy were also analyzed.

Results

During the study period, 93 patients aged 10 to 110 days with cholestasis and suspected BA underwent EHIDA. The sensitivity and NPV were 91.2 and 85.3% while specificity and PPV were 80.6 and 88.1%. These results suggested that EHIDA is suboptimal in both diagnosing or excluding BA. Out of 59 patients who showed no tracer activities in the intestines after 24 h, 56 were subjected to surgical exploration and 52 (92.9%) were eventually diagnosed BA. The accuracy of EHIDA scan were different by the maturity of the patient, age at testing and severity of cholestasis.

Conclusions

EHIDA has a limited accuracy and surgical exploration remains the gold standard to establish the diagnosis of BA. Potential confounding factors that may affect the accuracy of EHIDA were identified but require further studies with larger sample sizes to validate.

Ursodeoxycholic acid prevention on cholestasis associated with total parenteral nutrition in preterm infants: a randomized trial

BACKGROUND

Preterm infants with long-term parenteral nutrition (PN) therapy are at risk for cholestasis associated with total parenteral nutrition (PNAC). This study examined the safety and efficacy of ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) in preventing PNAC in preterm infants. Our research aimed to investigate the prophylactic effect of preventive oral UDCA on PNAC in preterm infants.

METHODS

We compared oral administration of UDCA prophylaxis with no prophylaxis in a randomized, open-label, proof-of-concept trial in preterm neonates with PN therapy. The low-birth-weight preterm infants (< 1800 g) who were registered to the neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) within 24 hours after birth were randomized. The main endpoint was the weekly values of direct bilirubin (DB) of neonates during the NICU stay.

RESULTS

Eventually, a total of 102 preterm neonates from January 2021 to July 2021 were enrolled in this prospective study (42 in the UDCA group and 60 in the control group). Notably, the peak serum level of DB [13.0 (12-16) vs. 15.2 (12.5-19.6) μmol/L, P < 0.05)] was significantly lower in the UDCA group than that in the control group without prevention. The peak serum level of total bilirubin (101.1 ± 34 vs. 116.5 ± 28.7 μmol/L, P < 0.05) was also significantly lower in the UDCA group than in the control group. Furthermore, the proportion of patients who suffered from neonatal cholestasis (0.0% vs. 11.7%, P < 0.05) in the UDCA group was significantly lower.

CONCLUSION

UDCA prophylaxis is beneficial in preventing PNAC in NICU infants receiving prolonged PN.

Protocol for a diagnostic accuracy study to develop diagnosis algorithm for biliary atresia using MMP-7 (DIABA-7 study): a study recruiting from Chinese Biliary Atresia Collaborative Network

Introduction

Biliary atresia is a severe liver disease in neonates, and the prognosis partially depends on the age at which infants undergo the Kasai procedure. Matrix metalloproteinase-7 (MMP-7) was confirmed to have significant value in the diagnosis of biliary atresia. However, so far, the reference range and its cut-off value for diagnosing biliary atresia have not been established yet.

Methods and analysis

DIagnosis Algorithm for Biliary Atresia (DIABA-7) is a prospective diagnostic test. Cholestatic infants and normal controls within 150 days of age are recruiting from the Chinese Biliary Atresia Collaborative Network. The serum samples and dried blood spot (DBS) samples are obtained to detect MMP-7 concentrations using an ELISA kit. The reference standard is the intraoperative exploration and subsequent histological examination of liver biopsies. Lambda-Mu-Sigma (LMS) method is used to calculate the normal range of serum MMP-7 of each age group. Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves are constructed to calculate the best cut-off point and area under the curve for the index test. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value are used to show the diagnostic accuracy. Pearson correlation coefficient test is applied to assess the correlation of serum MMP-7 and DBS MMP-7.

Ethics and dissemination

This study was reviewed and approved by the Ethics Committee of Children’s Hospital of Fudan University (Number 2020–296). Dissemination will be guided by investigators and patients. The aim is to publish the study results in a high-quality peer-reviewed journal and present the findings at international academic meetings.

Trial registration number

ChiCTR2000032983.

Practical approach for the diagnosis of biliary atresia on imaging, part 2: magnetic resonance cholecystopancreatography, hepatobiliary scintigraphy, percutaneous cholecysto-cholangiography, endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography, percutaneous liver biopsy, risk scores and decisional flowchart

We aim to present a practical approach to imaging in suspected biliary atresia, an inflammatory cholangiopathy of infancy resulting in progressive fibrosis and obliteration of extrahepatic and intrahepatic bile ducts. Left untreated or with failure of the Kasai procedure, biliary atresia progresses to biliary cirrhosis, end-stage liver failure and death within the first years of life. Differentiating biliary atresia from other nonsurgical causes of neonatal cholestasis is difficult as there is no single method for diagnosing biliary atresia and clinical, laboratory and imaging features of this disease overlap with those of other causes of neonatal cholestasis. In this second part, we discuss the roles of magnetic resonance (MR) cholecystopancreatography, hepatobiliary scintigraphy, percutaneous biopsy and percutaneous cholecysto-cholangiography. Among imaging techniques, ultrasound (US) signs have a high specificity, although a normal US examination does not rule out biliary atresia. Other imaging techniques with direct opacification of the biliary tree combined with percutaneous liver biopsy have roles in equivocal cases. MR cholecystopancreatography and hepatobiliary scintigraphy are not useful for the diagnosis of biliary atresia. We propose a decisional flowchart for biliary atresia diagnosis based on US signs, including elastography, percutaneous cholecysto-cholangiography or endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography and liver biopsy.

Conjugated Hyperbilirubinemia in Infants: Is There Still a Role for ERCP?

Over a twenty-year period, we performed 255 ERCP procedures in infants aged up to 1 year. ERCP was indicated in cholestatic infants with suspicion of biliary obstruction. The most common diagnosis was biliary atresia (48%), choledochal cysts (13%), and choledocholithiasis (4%). The procedure complication rate was 13.7%. Hyperamylasemia occurred in 12.9%. More severe complications were rare-0.8% of ERCP procedure. There were no cases of postprocedural pancreatitis or death. Our study has proved that ERCP is a safe and reliable method in this age group. Its high specificity and negative predictive value for extrahepatic biliary atresia can prevent unnecessary surgeries in patients with normal bile ducts or endoscopically treatable pathologies.

Value of the International Classification of Diseases code for identifying children with biliary atresia

BACKGROUND

Although identifying cases in large administrative databases may aid future research studies, previous reports demonstrated that the use of the International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision (ICD-10) code alone for diagnosis leads to disease misclassification.

PURPOSE

We aimed to assess the value of the ICD-10 diagnostic code for identifying potential children with biliary atresia.

METHODS

Patients aged <18 years assigned the ICD-10 code of biliary atresia (Q44.2) between January 1996 and December 2016 at a quaternary care teaching hospital were identified. We also reviewed patients with other diagnoses of code-defined cirrhosis to identify more potential cases of biliary atresia. A proposed diagnostic algorithm was used to define ICD-10 code accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity.

RESULTS

We reviewed the medical records of 155 patients with ICD-10 code Q44.2 and 69 patients with other codes for biliary cirrhosis (K74.4, K74.5, K74.6). The accuracy for identifying definite/probable/possible biliary atresia cases was 80%, while the sensitivity was 88% (95% confidence interval [CI], 82%-93%). Three independent predictors were associated with algorithm-defined definite/probable/possible cases of biliary atresia: ICD-10 code Q44.2 (odds ratio [OR], 2.90; 95% CI, 1.09-7.71), history of pale stool (OR, 2.78; 95% CI, 1.18-6.60), and a presumed diagnosis of biliary atresia prior to referral to our hospital (OR, 17.49; 95% CI, 7.01-43.64). A significant interaction was noted between ICD-10 code Q44.2 and a history of pale stool (P<0.05). The area under the curve was 0.87 (95% CI, 0.84-0.89).

CONCLUSION

ICD-10 code Q44.2 has an acceptable value for diagnosing biliary atresia. Incorporating clinical data improves the case identification. The use of this proposed diagnostic algorithm to examine data from administrative databases may facilitate appropriate health care allocation and aid future research investigations.

Serum MMP-7 in the Diagnosis of Biliary Atresia

BACKGROUND

The overlapping features of biliary atresia (BA) and other neonatal cholestasis with alternative causes (non-BA) have posed challenges for diagnosis. Matrix metalloproteinase-7 (MMP-7) has been reported to be promising in diagnosing BA. We aimed to validate the diagnostic accuracy of MMP-7 for BA in a large population sample.

METHODS

We enrolled 288 patients with neonatal obstructive jaundice from March 2017 to October 2018. Serum MMP-7 levels were measured by using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Receiver operating characteristic curves were constructed, and decision curve analysis was done. A Pearson correlation coefficient test was conducted to assess the correlation between MMP-7 levels and other characteristics.

RESULTS

The median serum MMP-7 levels were 38.89 ng/mL (interquartile range: 22.96-56.46) for the BA group and 4.4 ng/mL (interquartile range: 2.73-6.56) for the non-BA group (P < .001). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve value was 0.9829 for MMP-7, and the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value were 95.19%, 93.07%, 97.27%, and 91.43%, respectively, at a cutoff value of 10.37 ng/mL. When MMP-7 was combined with γ glutamyl transferase, the diagnostic accuracy was slightly improved without significance when compared with MMP-7 alone and had an area under the curve of 0.9880 (P = .08). Decision curve analysis also showed potential for MMP-7 to be used for clinical applications. A significant correlation was found with fibrosis stage from liver biopsy (R = 0.47; P < .001).

CONCLUSIONS

MMP-7 demonstrated good accuracy in diagnosing BA and holds promise for future clinical application. Furthermore, its correlation with liver fibrosis indicated its potential use as a therapeutic target or prognostic biomarker.

Th17-associated cytokines multiplex testing indicates the potential of macrophage inflammatory protein-3 alpha in the diagnosis of biliary atresia

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Biliary atresia (BA) is a neonatal obliterative cholangiopathy with high prevalence in south China. Accurate identification of BA among infants with obstructive jaundice is still difficult by noninvasive diagnostic tools. Th17 cells have been reported closely related with the development of BA, which suggest that Th17-associated cytokines were potential biomarkers for the diagnosis of BA patients.

METHODS

In the training study, 76 infants who were divided into 2 groups, including BA group (n = 31) and non-BA jaundice group (n = 45). Clinical and routine laboratory data were collected from all subjects. Totally 25 Th17-associated cytokines were tested and compared between groups. The diagnostic value of each differential cytokine was evaluated by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). The best potential diagnostic biomarker was further validated in a cohort including 68 jaundice infants from our partnering institution in a blinded fashion.

RESULTS

Data from the training study showed that gamma-glutamyl transferase (GGT) and clay stool would be helpful in the identification of BA patients in jaundice subjects. Th17-associated cytokines assay indicated that IL-17F, IL-10, macrophage inflammatory protein-3alpha (MIP3a), IL-22, IL-13, IL-33, IL-6, IL-17E, IL-27, IL-31, TNF-a and TNF-b were differentially expressed in BA patients, and the AUC of MIP3a was higher than other markers. MIP3a alone or combined with other laboratory data would significantly increase the diagnostic accuracy of BA. The diagnostic value of MIP3a was further confirmed in our validation study.

CONCLUSION

MIP3a alone or combined with other laboratory data would significantly increase the diagnostic accuracy of BA.

A quantitative image analysis using MRI for diagnosis of biliary atresia

PURPOSE

Biliary atresia is a life-threatening disease that needs early diagnosis and management. Recently, MRI images have been used for the diagnosis of biliary atresia with improved accuracy of diagnosis when other imaging modalities such as ultrasonography are equivocal. This study aimed to evaluate the juxta-hilar extrahepatic biliary tree using MRI images to determine a quantitative value for diagnosing biliary atresia.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This retrospective study was approved by the Ethical Committee at Mackey Memorial Hospital (IRB Number: 15MMHIS149e). Between January 2010 and December 2015, twenty-five patients with surgically confirmed biliary atresia were enrolled (age 18-65 days). Another 25 patients with clinically or surgically diagnosed idiopathic neonatal hepatitis (age 6-64 days) and 20 patients with non-hepatobiliary disease (age 6-65 days) were considered control group and normal subjects, respectively. The diameter of the enlarged, T2-hyperintense structure was measured using MRI images by two radiologists both blinded. The cut-off value for a biliary atresia diagnosis was obtained by area under the curve analysis.

RESULTS

The diameter of the T2-hyperintense structure at porta hepatis in biliary atresia (4.79 ± 1.14 mm) is larger than in idiopathic neonatal hepatitis (1.72 ± 0.42 mm) or in non-hepatobiliary disease (1.72 ± 0.35 mm) (p < 0.05). The optimum cut-off value for diagnosing biliary atresia was 3.1 mm with 98% sensitivity and 98% specificity.

CONCLUSION

The value of the enlarged, T2-hyperintense structure measured on MRI images was significantly increased in biliary atresia and may be useful in diagnosing biliary atresia.

Kasai procedure improves nutritional status and decreases transplantation-associated complications

BACKGROUND

The aim of this study was to retrospectively investigate whether Kasai Procedure (KP) improves nutritional status and whether KP decreases liver transplantation (LT)-associated complications in children with biliary atresia (BA).

METHODS

From March 1st 2014 to February 28th 2015, 103 patients underwent LT and the other 17 without prior KP died during the waiting period. In 103 patients undergoing LT, 58 patients received KP previously (Group A), and 45 only underwent primary LT (Group B). The nutritional status, liver function and LT-related short-term complications were analyzed.

RESULTS

Compared to Group B, patients in Group A had significantly increased time interval when undergoing LT (p < 0.05). Persistently, the bodyweight, albumin and hemoglobin in Group A were significantly increased compared to Group B (all, p < 0.0001). The bilirubin, ALT/AST and PELD score in Group A were all decreased compared to Group B (p < 0.05) prior to LT. The incidences of post-LT severe infection and hypoalbuminemia in Group A were significantly lower than those of Group B (p < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

KP improves the nutritional status, preserves liver function for patients who finally undergo LT, and decreases the incidence post-LT severe infection and hypoalbuminemia. Mental health can be improved in parents whose children underwent previous KP.

MRI-based decision tree model for diagnosis of biliary atresia

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate MRI findings and to generate a decision tree model for diagnosis of biliary atresia (BA) in infants with jaundice.

METHODS

We retrospectively reviewed features of MRI and ultrasonography (US) performed in infants with jaundice between January 2009 and June 2016 under approval of the institutional review board, including the maximum diameter of periportal signal change on MRI (MR triangular cord thickness, MR-TCT) or US (US-TCT), visibility of common bile duct (CBD) and abnormality of gallbladder (GB). Hepatic subcapsular flow was reviewed on Doppler US. We performed conditional inference tree analysis using MRI findings to generate a decision tree model.

RESULTS

A total of 208 infants were included, 112 in the BA group and 96 in the non-BA group. Mean age at the time of MRI was 58.7 ± 36.6 days. Visibility of CBD, abnormality of GB and MR-TCT were good discriminators for the diagnosis of BA and the MRI-based decision tree using these findings with MR-TCT cut-off 5.1 mm showed 97.3 % sensitivity, 94.8 % specificity and 96.2 % accuracy.

CONCLUSIONS

MRI-based decision tree model reliably differentiates BA in infants with jaundice. MRI can be an objective imaging modality for the diagnosis of BA.

KEY POINTS

• MRI-based decision tree model reliably differentiates biliary atresia in neonatal cholestasis. • Common bile duct, gallbladder and periportal signal changes are the discriminators. • MRI has comparable performance to ultrasonography for diagnosis of biliary atresia.

Initial assessment of the infant with neonatal cholestasis-Is this biliary atresia?

Introduction

Optimizing outcome in biliary atresia (BA) requires timely diagnosis. Cholestasis is a presenting feature of BA, as well as other diagnoses (Non-BA). Identification of clinical features of neonatal cholestasis that would expedite decisions to pursue subsequent invasive testing to correctly diagnose or exclude BA would enhance outcomes. The analytical goal was to develop a predictive model for BA using data available at initial presentation.

Methods

Infants at presentation with neonatal cholestasis (direct/conjugated bilirubin >2 mg/dl [34.2 μM]) were enrolled prior to surgical exploration in a prospective observational multi-centered study (PROBE–NCT00061828). Clinical features (physical findings, laboratory results, gallbladder sonography) at enrollment were analyzed. Initially, 19 features were selected as candidate predictors. Two approaches were used to build models for diagnosis prediction: a hierarchical classification and regression decision tree (CART) and a logistic regression model using a stepwise selection strategy.

Results

In PROBE April 2004-February 2014, 401 infants met criteria for BA and 259 for Non-BA. Univariate analysis identified 13 features that were significantly different between BA and Non-BA. Using a CART predictive model of BA versus Non-BA (significant factors: gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase, acholic stools, weight), the receiver operating characteristic area under the curve (ROC AUC) was 0.83. Twelve percent of BA infants were misclassified as Non-BA; 17% of Non-BA infants were misclassified as BA. Stepwise logistic regression identified seven factors in a predictive model (ROC AUC 0.89). Using this model, a predicted probability of >0.8 (n = 357) yielded an 81% true positive rate for BA; <0.2 (n = 120) yielded an 11% false negative rate.

Conclusion

Despite the relatively good accuracy of our optimized prediction models, the high precision required for differentiating BA from Non-BA was not achieved. Accurate identification of BA in infants with neonatal cholestasis requires further evaluation, and BA should not be excluded based only on presenting clinical features.