Prognostic and predictive value of radiomics features at MRI in nasopharyngeal carcinoma

Enhancing Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma Survival Prediction: Integrating Pre- and Post-Treatment MRI Radiomics with Clinical Data

Recurrences are frequent in nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) despite high remission rates with treatment, leading to considerable morbidity. This study aimed to develop a prediction model for NPC survival by harnessing both pre- and post-treatment magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) radiomics in conjunction with clinical data, focusing on 3-year progression-free survival (PFS) as the primary outcome. Our comprehensive approach involved retrospective clinical and MRI data collection of 276 eligible NPC patients from three independent hospitals (180 in the training cohort, 46 in the validation cohort, and 50 in the external cohort) who underwent MRI scans twice, once within 2 months prior to treatment and once within 10 months after treatment. From the contrast-enhanced T1-weighted images before and after treatment, 3404 radiomics features were extracted. These features were not only derived from the primary lesion but also from the adjacent lymph nodes surrounding the tumor. We conducted appropriate feature selection pipelines, followed by Cox proportional hazards models for survival analysis. Model evaluation was performed using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, the Kaplan-Meier method, and nomogram construction. Our study unveiled several crucial predictors of NPC survival, notably highlighting the synergistic combination of pre- and post-treatment data in both clinical and radiomics assessments. Our prediction model demonstrated robust performance, with an accuracy of AUCs of 0.66 (95% CI: 0.536-0.779) in the training cohort, 0.717 (95% CI: 0.536-0.883) in the testing cohort, and 0.827 (95% CI: 0.684-0.948) in validation cohort in prognosticating patient outcomes. Our study presented a novel and effective prediction model for NPC survival, leveraging both pre- and post-treatment clinical data in conjunction with MRI features. Its constructed nomogram provides potentially significant implications for NPC research, offering clinicians a valuable tool for individualized treatment planning and patient counseling.

Deciphering the Prognostic Efficacy of MRI Radiomics in Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma: A Comprehensive Meta-Analysis

This meta-analysis investigates the prognostic value of MRI-based radiomics in nasopharyngeal carcinoma treatment outcomes, specifically focusing on overall survival (OS) variability. The study protocol was registered with INPLASY (INPLASY202420101). Initially, a systematic review identified 15 relevant studies involving 6243 patients through a comprehensive search across PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science, adhering to PRISMA guidelines. The methodological quality was assessed using the Quality in Prognosis Studies (QUIPS) tool and the Radiomics Quality Score (RQS), highlighting a low risk of bias in most domains. Our analysis revealed a significant average concordance index (c-index) of 72% across studies, indicating the potential of radiomics in clinical prognostication. However, moderate heterogeneity was observed, particularly in OS predictions. Subgroup analyses and meta-regression identified validation methods and radiomics software as significant heterogeneity moderators. Notably, the number of features in the prognosis model correlated positively with its performance. These findings suggest radiomics' promising role in enhancing cancer treatment strategies, though the observed heterogeneity and potential biases call for cautious interpretation and standardization in future research.

Adjuvant chemotherapy or no adjuvant chemotherapy? A prediction model for the risk stratification of recurrence or metastasis of nasopharyngeal carcinoma combining MRI radiomics with clinical factors

BACKGROUND

Dose adjuvant chemotherapy (AC) should be offered in nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) patients? Different guidelines provided the different recommendations.

METHODS

In this retrospective study, a total of 140 patients were enrolled and followed for 3 years, with 24 clinical features being collected. The imaging features on the enhanced-MRI sequence were extracted by using PyRadiomics platform. The pearson correlation coefficient and the random forest was used to filter the features associated with recurrence or metastasis. A clinical-radiomics model (CRM) was constructed by the Cox multivariable analysis in training cohort, and was validated in validation cohort. All patients were divided into high- and low-risk groups through the median Rad-score of the model. The Kaplan-Meier survival curves were used to compare the 3-year recurrence or metastasis free rate (RMFR) of patients with or without AC in high- and low-groups.

RESULTS

In total, 960 imaging features were extracted. A CRM was constructed from nine features (seven imaging features and two clinical factors). In the training cohort, the area under curve (AUC) of CRM for 3-year RMFR was 0.872 (P <0.001), and the sensitivity and specificity were 0.935 and 0.672, respectively; In the validation cohort, the AUC was 0.864 (P <0.001), and the sensitivity and specificity were 1.00 and 0.75, respectively. Kaplan-Meier curve showed that the 3-year RMFR and 3-year cancer specific survival (CSS) rate in the high-risk group were significantly lower than those in the low-risk group (P <0.001). In the high-risk group, patients who received AC had greater 3-year RMFR than those who did not receive AC (78.6% vs. 48.1%) (p = 0.03).

CONCLUSION

Considering increasing RMFR, a prediction model for NPC based on two clinical factors and seven imaging features suggested the AC needs to be added to patients in the high-risk group and not in the low-risk group.

Radiomics from Various Tumour Volume Sizes for Prognosis Prediction of Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma: A Voted Ensemble Machine Learning Approach

Background: Traditionally, cancer prognosis was determined by tumours size, lymph node spread and presence of metastasis (TNM staging). Radiomics of tumour volume has recently been used for prognosis prediction. In the present study, we evaluated the effect of various sizes of tumour volume. A voted ensemble approach with a combination of multiple machine learning algorithms is proposed for prognosis prediction for head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC). Methods: A total of 215 HNSCC CT image sets with radiotherapy structure sets were acquired from The Cancer Imaging Archive (TCIA). Six tumour volumes, including gross tumour volume (GTV), diminished GTV, extended GTV, planning target volume (PTV), diminished PTV and extended PTV were delineated. The extracted radiomics features were analysed by decision tree, random forest, extreme boost, support vector machine and generalized linear algorithms. A voted ensemble machine learning (VEML) model that optimizes the above algorithms was used. The receiver operating characteristic area under the curve (ROC-AUC) were used to compare the performance of machine learning methods, including accuracy, sensitivity and specificity. Results: The VEML model demonstrated good prognosis prediction ability for all sizes of tumour volumes with reference to GTV and PTV with high accuracy of up to 88.3%, sensitivity of up to 79.9% and specificity of up to 96.6%. There was no significant difference between the various target volumes for the prognostic prediction of HNSCC patients (chi-square test, p > 0.05). Conclusions: Our study demonstrates that the proposed VEML model can accurately predict the prognosis of HNSCC patients using radiomics features from various tumour volumes.

MRI-based random survival Forest model improves prediction of progression-free survival to induction chemotherapy plus concurrent Chemoradiotherapy in Locoregionally Advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma

Background

The present study aimed to explore the application value of random survival forest (RSF) model and Cox model in predicting the progression-free survival (PFS) among patients with locoregionally advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma (LANPC) after induction chemotherapy plus concurrent chemoradiotherapy (IC + CCRT).

Methods

Eligible LANPC patients underwent magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scan before treatment were subjected to radiomics feature extraction. Radiomics and clinical features of patients in the training cohort were subjected to RSF analysis to predict PFS and were tested in the testing cohort. The performance of an RSF model with clinical and radiologic predictors was assessed with the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) and Delong test and compared with Cox models based on clinical and radiologic parameters. Further, the Kaplan-Meier method was used for risk stratification of patients.

Results

A total of 294 LANPC patients (206 in the training cohort; 88 in the testing cohort) were enrolled and underwent magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans before treatment. The AUC value of the clinical Cox model, radiomics Cox model, clinical + radiomics Cox model, and clinical + radiomics RSF model in predicting 3- and 5-year PFS for LANPC patients was [0.545 vs 0.648 vs 0.648 vs 0.899 (training cohort), and 0.566 vs 0.736 vs 0.730 vs 0.861 (testing cohort); 0.556 vs 0.604 vs 0.611 vs 0.897 (training cohort), and 0.591 vs 0.661 vs 0.676 vs 0.847 (testing cohort), respectively]. Delong test showed that the RSF model and the other three Cox models were statistically significant, and the RSF model markedly improved prediction performance (P < 0.001). Additionally, the PFS of the high-risk group was lower than that of the low-risk group in the RSF model (P < 0.001), while comparable in the Cox model (P > 0.05).

Conclusion

The RSF model may be a potential tool for prognostic prediction and risk stratification of LANPC patients.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12885-022-09832-6.