Statistical Seasonal Forecasting of Winter and Spring PM2.5 Concentrations Over the Korean Peninsula

Back-trajectory analyses for evaluating the transboundary transport effect to the aerosol pollution in South Korea

This study performed a back-trajectory analysis to determine the influence of transboundary transport on the extent of aerosol pollution in South Korea, based on 5-year PM2.5 measurements (2015-2019) in five cities covering South Korea. A transboundary transport case was selected if a back trajectory passed over a dedicated region (BOX 1 and BOX 2) in the Yellow Sea. First, we found that the frequency of transboundary transport largely increases in the high pollution case, and this pattern is almost consistent for all months and all five cities, indicating the importance of investigating the horizontal direction of air mass movement associated with PM2.5, which has been discussed extensively in previous studies. In this study, we also examined the altitude change and straight moving distance (defined as travel distance) of back trajectories regarding the extent of local PM2.5. Consequently, we found that back trajectories in high aerosol pollution showed much lower altitudes and shorter travel differences, implying a significant contribution of surface emissions and stagnant air conditions to severe aerosol pollution. As a result, the local PM2.5 level was not significantly enhanced when the air mass passed over the Yellow Sea if transboundary transport occurred at high altitudes with rapid movement (i.e., high altitude and long travel distance back-trajectory). Based on these results, we suggest utilizing the combined information of the horizontal direction, altitude variation, and length of back trajectories to better evaluate transboundary transport.

Arctic/North Atlantic atmospheric variability causes Severe PM10 events in South Korea

Severe PM10 (particulate matter with a diameter of <10 μm) events in South Korea are known to be caused by stable atmospheric circulation conditions related to high-pressure anomalies in the upper troposphere. However, research on why these atmospheric circulation patterns occur is unknown. In this study, we propose new large-scale teleconnection pathways that cause severe PM10 events during the midwinter in South Korea. This study investigated instances of extremely high (EH)-PM10 in South Korea during mid-winter and examined the corresponding atmospheric teleconnection patterns to identify the factors contributing to EH-PM10 events. K-means clustering analysis revealed that EH-PM10 instances were associated with two large-scale teleconnection patterns. Cluster 1 exhibited a wave train pattern originating in the North Atlantic that developed from Eurasia to the Korean Peninsula. Cluster 2 was associated with a wave-like teleconnection pattern from the Barents-Kara Sea to the Korean Peninsula. The Rossby waves, triggered by the North Atlantic and the Arctic, propagated and weakened the surface pressure system. This led to a high-pressure anomaly over the Korean Peninsula, reducing atmospheric ventilation and causing a rapid increase in PM10 concentration within a few days. Furthermore, an experiment involving a linear baroclinic model established that atmospheric forcing in upstream regions has the potential to induce large-scale atmospheric teleconnection patterns, resulting in EH-PM10 cases in South Korea. These findings emphasize the ventilation effect and transport of PM10 concentrations modulated by two large-scale teleconnection patterns originating from the Arctic and North Atlantic, leading to EH-PM10 events in South Korea. Understanding this combined phenomenon may assist in the implementation of emission reduction measures based on the results of short-term forecasts of severe PM10 events.