Spatially Varying Coefficient Models with Sign Preservation of the Coefficient Functions

Land surface and air temperature dynamics: The role of urban form and seasonality

Due to the scarcity of air temperature (Ta) observations, urban heat studies often rely on satellite-derived Land Surface Temperature (LST) to characterise the near-surface thermal environment. However, there remains a lack of a quantitative understanding on how LST differs from Ta within urban areas and what are the controlling factors of their interaction. We use crowdsourced air temperature measurements in Sydney, Australia, combined with urban landscape data, Local Climate Zones (LCZ), high-resolution satellite imagery, and machine learning to explore the influence of urban form and fabric on the interaction between Ta and LST. Results show that LST and Ta have distinct spatiotemporal characteristics, and their relationship differs by season, ecological infrastructure, and building morphology. We found greater seasonal variability in LST compared to Ta, along with more pronounced intra-urban spatial variability in LST, particularly in warmer seasons. We also observed a greater temperature difference between LST and Ta in the built environment compared to the natural LCZs, especially during warm days. Natural LCZs (areas with mostly dense and scattered trees) showed stronger LST-Ta relationships compared to built areas. In particular, we observe that built areas with higher building density (where the heat vulnerability is likely more pronounced) show insignificant or negative relationships between LST- Ta in summer. Our results also indicate that surface cover, distance from the ocean, and seasonality significantly influence the distribution of hot and cold spots for LST and Ta. The spatial distribution for Ta hot spots does not always overlap with LST. We find that relying solely on LST as a direct proxy for the urban thermal environment is inappropriate, particularly in densely built-up areas and during warm seasons. These findings provide new perspectives on the relationship between surface and canopy temperatures and how these relate to urban form and fabric.