Identifying hotspots of land use cover change under socioeconomic and climate change scenarios in Mexico

Mosquito (Diptera: Culicidae) diversity and arbovirus detection across an urban and agricultural landscape

Fragmented landscapes in Mexico, characterized by a mix of agricultural, urban, and native vegetation cover, presents unique ecological characteristics that shape the mosquito community composition and mosquito-borne diseases. The extent to which landscape influences mosquito populations and mosquito-borne diseases is still poorly understood. This work assessed the effect of landscape metrics -agriculture, urban, and native vegetation cover- on mosquito diversity and arbovirus presence in fragmented tropical deciduous forests in Central Mexico during 2021. Among the 21 mosquito species across six genera we identified, Culex quinquefasciatus was the most prevalent species, followed by Aedes aegypti, Ae. albopictus, and Ae. epactius. Notably, areas with denser native vegetation cover displayed higher mosquito species richness, which could have an impact on phenomena such as the dilution effect. Zika and dengue virus were detected in 85% of captured species, with first reports of DENV in several Aedes species and ZIKV in multiple Aedes and Culex species. These findings underscore the necessity of expanding arbovirus surveillance beyond Ae. aegypti and advocate for a deeper understanding of vector ecology in fragmented landscapes to adequately address public health strategies.

Biodiversity conservation in the context of climate change: Facing challenges and management strategies

Biodiversity conservation amidst the uncertainty of climate change presents unique challenges that necessitate precise management strategies. The study reported here was aimed at refining understanding of these challenges and to propose specific, actionable management strategies. Employing a quantitative literature analysis, we meticulously examined 1268 research articles from the Web of Science database between 2005 and 2023. Through Cite Spaces and VOS viewer software, we conducted a bibliometric analysis and thematic synthesis to pinpoint emerging trends, key themes, and the geographical distribution of research efforts. Our methodology involved identifying patterns within the data, such as frequency of keywords, co-authorship networks, and citation analysis, to discern the primary focus areas within the field. This approach allowed us to distinguish between research concentration areas, specifically highlighting a predominant interest in Environmental Sciences Ecology (67.59 %) and Biodiversity Conservation (22.63 %). The identification of adaptive management practices and ecosystem services maintenance are central themes in the research from 2005 to 2023. Moreover, challenges such as understanding phenological shifts, invasive species dynamics, and anthropogenic pressures critically impact biodiversity conservation efforts. Our findings underscore the urgent need for precise, data-driven decision-making processes in the face of these challenges. Addressing the gaps identified, our study proposes targeted solutions, including the establishment of germplasm banks for at-risk species, the development of advanced genomic and microclimate models, and scenario analysis to predict and mitigate future conservation challenges. These strategies are aimed at enhancing the resilience of biodiversity against the backdrop of climate change through integrated, evidence-based approaches. By leveraging the compiled and analyzed data, this study offers a foundational framework for future research and practical action in biodiversity conservation strategies, demonstrating a path forward through detailed analysis and specified solutions.

Vector mosquito distribution and richness are predicted by socio-economic, and ecological variables

Mosquitoes of vectorial importance represent a ubiquitous and constant threat of potentially devastating arboviral outbreaks. Our ability to predict such outcomes is still restricted. To answer this, we have used an extensive data collection of 23 vector and 233 non-vector mosquito species distributed throughout the Mexican territory and linked them to social and environmental factors. Our aim was to predict vector and non-vector mosquitoes' distribution and species richness based on socioeconomic and environmental data. We found that lack of health services, human population variation, ecological degradation, and urban-rural categorization contributed significantly to explain the distribution of vector mosquitoes. mosquitoes. This phenomenon is probably attributed to the degradation of natural ecosystems as it creates favorable conditions for the proliferation of vector mosquitoes. The richness of vector mosquitoes was similarly explained by most of these variables as well as altitude. As for non-vector mosquitoes, social marginalization, ecological degradation, anthropogenic impact, and altitude explain species richness and distribution. These findings illustrate the complex interaction of environmental and socioeconomic factors behind the distribution of mosquitoes, and the potential for arboviral disease outbreaks. Areas with human populations at highest risk for mosquito-borne diseases should be primary targets for vector control.

Changes in landscape and climate in Mexico and Texas reveal small effects on migratory habitat of monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus)

The decline of the iconic monarch butterfly (Danaus plexippus) in North America has motivated research on the impacts of land use and land cover (LULC) change and climate variability on monarch habitat and population dynamics. We investigated spring and fall trends in LULC, milkweed and nectar resources over a 20-year period, and ~ 30 years of climate variables in Mexico and Texas, U.S. This region supports spring breeding, and spring and fall migration during the annual life cycle of the monarch. We estimated a - 2.9% decline in milkweed in Texas, but little to no change in Mexico. Fall and spring nectar resources declined < 1% in both study extents. Vegetation greenness increased in the fall and spring in Mexico while the other climate variables did not change in both Mexico and Texas. Monarch habitat in Mexico and Texas appears relatively more intact than in the midwestern, agricultural landscapes of the U.S. Given the relatively modest observed changes in nectar and milkweed, the relatively stable climate conditions, and increased vegetation greenness in Mexico, it seems unlikely that habitat loss (quantity or quality) in Mexico and Texas has caused large declines in population size or survival during migration.

Arboviruses in Mammals in the Neotropics: A Systematic Review to Strengthen Epidemiological Monitoring Strategies and Conservation Medicine

Arthropod-borne viruses (arboviruses) are a diverse group of ribonucleic acid (RNA) viruses, with the exception of African swine fever virus, that are transmitted by hematophagous arthropods to a vertebrate host. They are the important cause of many diseases due to their ability to spread in different environments and their diversity of vectors. Currently, there is no information on the geographical distribution of the diseases because the routes of transmission and the mammals (wild or domestic) that act as potential hosts are poorly documented or unknown. We conducted a systematic review from 1967 to 2021 to identify the diversity of arboviruses, the areas, and taxonomic groups that have been monitored, the prevalence of positive records, and the associated risk factors. We identified forty-three arboviruses in nine mammalian orders distributed in eleven countries. In Brazil, the order primates harbor the highest number of arbovirus records. The three most recorded arboviruses were Venezuelan equine encephalitis, Saint Louis encephalitis and West Nile virus. Serum is the most used sample to obtain arbovirus records. Deforestation is identified as the main risk factor for arbovirus transmission between different species and environments (an odds ratio of 1.46 with a 95% confidence interval: 1.34-1.59). The results show an increase in the sampling effort over the years in the neotropical region. Despite the importance of arboviruses for public health, little is known about the interaction of arboviruses, their hosts, and vectors, as some countries and mammalian orders have not yet been monitored. Long-term and constant monitoring allows focusing research on the analysis of the interrelationships and characteristics of each component animal, human, and their environment to understand the dynamics of the diseases and guide epidemiological surveillance and vector control programs. The biodiversity of the Neotropics should be considered to support epidemiological monitoring strategies.

Long-term spatiotemporal patterns in the number of colonies and honey production in Mexico

Honey bee decline is currently one of the world's most serious environmental issues, and scientists, governments, and producers have generated interest in understanding its causes and consequences in honey production and food supply. Mexico is one of the world's top honey producers, however, the honey bee population's status has not been documented to date. Based on 32 years of data from beekeeping, we make a country-level assessment of honey bee colony trends in Mexico. We use generalized additive mixed models to measure the associations between the percent change in honey bee hives and the percent change in honey yield per hive in relation to land-use, climate, and socioeconomic conditions. Despite the fact that the average annual yield per hive increased from 1980 to 2012, we detected a significant decline in the percent change in the number of honey bee hives across the time period studied. We also found a relationship between climatic conditions and agricultural land use, with agriculture increases and high temperatures producing a decrease in the percent change in honey yield. We found a relationship between a reduction in the temperature range (the difference between maximum and minimum temperatures) and a decrease in the percent change in the number of hives, while socioeconomic factors related to poverty levels have an impact on the number of hives and honey yields. Although long-term declines in hive numbers are not correlated with poverty levels, socioeconomic factors in states with high and medium poverty levels limit the increase in honey yield per hive. These results provide evidence that land-use changes, unfavorable climatic conditions, political, and socioeconomic factors are partially responsible for the reductions in the percent change in honey bee hives in Mexico.

Place-Based Bias in Environmental Scholarship Derived from Social-Ecological Landscapes of Fear

Historical perspectives (e.g., moments of social, political, and economic significance) are increasingly relevant for developing insights into landscape change and ecosystem degradation. However, the question of how to incorporate historical events into ecological inquiry is still under development, owing to the evolving paradigm of transdisciplinary thinking between natural science and the humanities. In the present article, we call for the inclusion of negative human histories (e.g., evictions of communities and environmental injustices) as important factors that drive landscape change and shape research questions relevant to environmental conservation. We outline the detrimental effects of conservationists not addressing negative human histories by likening this social phenomenon to the ecological concept of landscapes of fear, which describes how not acknowledging these histories produces a landscape that constrains where and how research is conducted by scientists. Finally, we provide three positive recommendations for scholars or practitioners to address the manifestation of historic place-based bias in ecological research. What we call the social-ecological landscapes of fear provides a conceptual framework for more inclusive practices in ecology to increase the success of environmental and conservation goals.

Landscape pattern change and its correlation with influencing factors in semiarid areas, northwestern China

The West Liaohe Plain (WLP) is a typical crop-pastoral ecotone of the semiarid area in Northwestern, China. Land use/cover change (LUCC) of the WLP might endanger this ecosystem, triggering long-lasting environmental concerns. LUCC data for China (1980-2020) and hydrometeorological data were analyzed to reveal factors contributing to change and explore sustainable development opportunities. The results show that characteristics of the main land-use types in the WLP have changed significantly, especially cultivated land area, which increased by 15.2% and 6.79% during the periods 1980-1995 and 2000-2020, respectively. Response relationships were observed due to natural (precipitation, temperature, and runoff) and anthropogenic (economy) factors and LUCC. Between 2000 and 2020, the impact of anthropogenic factors on cultivated land was stronger than on grassland at the class and landscape level, using the landscape indices which were selected, including percent of landscape (PLAND), number of patches (NP), largest patch index (LPI), and Shannon's evenness index (SHEI). Expansion of cultivated land from 1990 to 1995 was not only related to anthropogenic factors but also to hydrological & climatic factors. The results of this study have the potential to influence sustainable land resource development.

Analysis of the Driving Force of Land Use Change Based on Geographic Detection and Simulation of Future Land Use Scenarios

Land use and land cover changes (LULCC) are the result of the combined action of many influencing factors such as nature, society, economy and politics. Taking Chongqing as an example, the driving factors of urban land expansion in Chongqing from 1999 to 2019 are analyzed using a geographic detection (GD) method. Based on this analysis, a land use scenario of Chongqing in 2029 is simulated by an Artificial Neural Network-Cellular Automata model. The results of the analysis of factors affecting land use change show that five factors have a significance >0.05: population, distance from central city, school density, GDP and the distance from railway, showing that these factors have a high impact on LULCC in Chongqing. In addition, the results of risk detection analysis show that areas with a population >50/km2; the areas with a distance <200 km from the city center; areas with a school density >5/km2; areas with a high GDP; and areas with a distance <25 km from the railway have a greater impact on urban land use change than other areas. The land use scenario in 2029 also is simulated based on the land use situation in 2019. The predicted results clearly reflect a land use change trend of increasing urban land and decreasing agricultural land in the region. These land use changes are especially related to the expansion of the population, economy, roads, and schools in the process of urbanization. This analysis also shows that the GD-ANN-CA model developed in this paper is well suited to urban land use simulation.

Benefits of and barriers to telehealth for the informal caregivers of elderly individuals in rural areas: A scoping review

INTRODUCTION

Maintaining care for elderly individuals in rural areas is heavily dependent on support from informal caregivers. Many informal caregivers of the elderly in rural areas feel burdened and urgently require professional support. Interests in telehealth that can provide support irrespective of geographical location have been increasing.

OBJECTIVE

To identify the benefits of and barriers in telehealth engagement for rural caregivers to provide evidence for service improvement.

DESIGN

A scoping review method was used following PRISMA-ScR guidelines and Arksey and O'Malley's five-stage framework. Five databases were searched. The search terms were chosen based on the target intervention (i.e. telehealth), target population (caregivers of elderly individuals) and target context (rural areas). Two authors independently assessed the eligibility of studies and extracted data from eligible studies.

FINDINGS

Of 4220 retrieved studies, 19 articles met the inclusion criteria. This study identified four benefits of and two barriers to telehealth for rural caregivers. Four subthemes were identified as the key benefits in using telehealth for caregivers: decrease in psychological distress, increase in care efficiency, increase in social support and increase in access to resources, while inadequate telehealth infrastructures and caregivers' own reasons were the primary barriers in using telehealth for those populations.

CONCLUSIONS

Telehealth was shown to significantly benefit rural caregivers. Future research can be designed and conducted for overcoming the barriers to telehealth. Additionally, the benefits identified by this review need to be translated from research into practice for rural caregivers' care.

A functional perspective on the analysis of land use and land cover data in ecology

Assessments of large-scale changes in habitat are a priority for management and conservation. Traditional approaches use land use and land cover data (LULC) that focus mostly on "structural" properties of landscapes, rather than "functional" properties related to specific ecological processes. Here, we contend that designing functional analyses of LULC can provide important and complementary information to traditional, structural analyses. We substantiate this perspective with an example of functional changes in habitat due to industrial anthropogenic footprints in Alberta's boreal forest, where there has been little overall forest loss (~ 6% structural change), but high levels of functional change (up to 93% functional change) for species' habitat, biodiversity, and wildfire ignition. We discuss the methods needed to achieve functional LULC analyses, when they are most appropriate to add to structural assessments, and conclude by providing recommendations for analyses of LULC in a future of increasingly high-resolution, dynamic remote sensing data.

Effects of landscape anthropization on sylvatic mosquito assemblages in a rainforest in Chiapas, Mexico

Global change and ecosystem transformation at regional and local scales during recent decades have facilitated the exponential increase of outbreaks of mosquito-borne diseases. Mosquito-borne pathogens are responsible for millions of infections, mainly in tropical regions where marginalized human populations are located, and where in recent years processes of landscape anthropization have occurred. Anthropogenic landscape transformation is known to change species assemblages. However, the magnitude of these effects is largely unknown, and the effects of anthropogenic landscape transformation on sylvatic mosquito assemblages are poorly known in Mexican ecosystems. We evaluate how mosquito abundance, richness, and diversity change along a gradient of three human-modified landscapes-one highly anthropized, one moderately anthropized, and one slightly anthropized-within a tropical forest matrix in a Protected Natural Area in Chiapas. A total of 4 538 mosquitoes belonging to 23 species were captured and identified at the three sites. We found differences in the structure and abundance of the three mosquito assemblages. The species assemblage of the highly anthropized site was significantly different from the other sites, and the relative abundance of the assemblages increased with landscape anthropization. Our results suggest that landscape anthropization alters the composition and structure of mosquito assemblages, modifying the abundance and species richness of mosquitoes associated with sylvatic ecosystems. This could support the hypothesis of intermediate disturbance that suggests the diversity is maximized when late and early successional species coexist in these ecosystems. This information is essential to understand the ecology of potential sylvatic vectors and the environmental factors that are involved in the emergence and re-emergence of mosquito-borne diseases.

A Systematic Review of Drivers and Constraints on Agricultural Expansion in Sub-Saharan Africa

Understanding the dynamics of agricultural expansion, their drivers, and interactions is critical for biodiversity conservation, ecosystem-services provision, and the future sustainability of agricultural development in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). However, there is limited understanding of the drivers of agricultural expansion. A systematic review of the drivers of agricultural expansion was conducted from 1970 to 2020 using Web of Science, Elsevier Scopus and Google Scholar. Two researchers reviewed the papers separately based on inclusion and exclusion criteria. Fifteen papers were included in the final systematic review. The paper proposed expansion pathways in a conceptual framework and identified proximate and underlying drivers. Population dynamics and government policies were found to be key underlying drivers of agricultural expansion. The proximate drivers include economic opportunities such as agriculture mechanisation and cash crops production, and more troubling trends such as soil fertility decline and climate change and variability. This paper further explores the constraints that have been found to slow down agricultural expansion, including strong land institutions and good governance.

Assessment of above-ground biomass and carbon loss from a tropical dry forest in Mexico

Primary forests in seasonally dry tropical regions have undergone intense land-use/cover change, ranging from widespread shifting agriculture to land clearing for livestock production systems, and selective logging. Despite the importance of tropical dry forests (TDF), little is known about the implications of carbon (C) emissions from deforestation in local, national, and global scales. Therefore, the main objective of this study is to quantify and understand the processes that drive major C losses of this ecosystem in Mexico. Also, we evaluated the applicability of the already published above ground biomass (AGB) maps to quantify and allocate changes in C stocks. The results suggest that biomass maps can be used to capture the patterns of AGB distribution and to identify the driving forces of C emissions. The C losses are more related to socioeconomic drivers than biophysical characteristics like topography and climate. Besides, this study shows that published current AGB maps may be used for landscape management, including conservation and restoration areas.

Mapping of the Land Cover Changes in High Mountains of Western Carpathians between 1990–2018: Case Study of the Low Tatras National Park (Slovakia)

At present, the protection of nature and landscape in the high mountains of the Western Carpathians, protected as national parks, is becoming increasingly at the forefront of society’s interests in connection with the development of their economic use and the development of mass tourism. Our research was focused on analyzing the extent and character of land cover changes in the Low Tatras National Park in Slovakia over the last 30 years (1990–2018) using CORINE land cover (CLC) data. The period captures almost the entire existence of the Slovak Republic. Therefore, it was possible to evaluate the landscape changes in the protected area and to identify barriers and possibilities of its long-term sustainable development. Based on computer modeling, the main areas of the land cover changes were identified, and on the basis of historical-geographical and field research, land cover flows were determined and justified in the studied landscape of the national park. Changes were monitored using three methods: by comparing CLC maps over the years, by analyzing land cover flows, and by comparing landscape metrics obtained through the PatchAnalyst. Land cover changes occurred on up to 20% of the national park area in the given period. The most significant change was observed in the CLC class coniferous forests, with almost a 12% decrease. Conversely, there was an increase of more than 11% in the CLC class transitional woodland-shrub.

A GIS Approach Land Suitability and Availability Analysis of Jatropha Curcas L. Growth in Mexico as a Potential Source for Biodiesel Production

Jatropha curcas L. (JCL) commercial plantations in Mexico, one of the most important JCL origin centers, have failed due to a variety of biological, political and technical factors affecting their productivity. This study explores feasible sites of JCL cultivation as a potential source for biodiesel production in Mexico, given agroclimatic and agroecological considerations. We propose a GIS-based approach for estimating suitable and available lands to grow JCL by integrating an Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) in the ArcGIS software. Spatial analysis combined multiple data, different evaluation criteria, three land availability classes (high, medium and low potential) and took into account ecological, ethical, and political restrictions, and considering two scenarios with different restriction levels. Suitability and availability maps were generated using agroclimatic information (climatic, land use/soil, and climate change and extreme weather events risk) together with other socioeconomic factors. Approximately 15.3% of Mexican territory is available for JCL production yielding a biodiesel production of 9.683 Mm3/year. Amelioration of the available land is necessary to improve land selection. GIS-based analysis represents a first approach to establish a successful biodiesel project that avoids, competition with food or feed production, maintains biodiversity conservation, and promotes biofuel supply chain development. This procedure would also be applicable to other energy crops such as oil palm and Ricinus communis.

How dietary transition changed land use in Mexico

The nutrition transition towards western diets in developing countries occurs at multiple levels, impacting health and society and also the environment. In Mexico, the shift in food consumption and production patterns, particularly in relation to animal source foods (ASF), has changed land use. We studied the consumption and production of ASF and change in agricultural land use in Mexico during the second half of the twentieth century and until 2013; using domestic and international data sources, our findings show an increasing proportion of farmed area devoted to the production of feed crops domestically, and also an increasing demand of farmed feed beyond national borders. We discuss how the intensification of livestock production is associated to major environmental threats and suggest that opportunities are available for sustainable and healthy food options.

Performance Evaluation of Machine Learning Methods for Forest Fire Modeling and Prediction

Predicting and mapping fire susceptibility is a top research priority in fire-prone forests worldwide. This study evaluates the abilities of the Bayes Network (BN), Naïve Bayes (NB), Decision Tree (DT), and Multivariate Logistic Regression (MLP) machine learning methods for the prediction and mapping fire susceptibility across the Pu Mat National Park, Nghe An Province, Vietnam. The modeling methodology was formulated based on processing the information from the 57 historical fires and a set of nine spatially explicit explanatory variables, namely elevation, slope degree, aspect, average annual temperate, drought index, river density, land cover, and distance from roads and residential areas. Using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and seven other performance metrics, the models were validated in terms of their abilities to elucidate the general fire behaviors in the Pu Mat National Park and to predict future fires. Despite a few differences between the AUC values, the BN model with an AUC value of 0.96 was dominant over the other models in predicting future fires. The second best was the DT model (AUC = 0.94), followed by the NB (AUC = 0.939), and MLR (AUC = 0.937) models. Our robust analysis demonstrated that these models are sufficiently robust in response to the training and validation datasets change. Further, the results revealed that moderate to high levels of fire susceptibilities are associated with ~19% of the Pu Mat National Park where human activities are numerous. This study and the resultant susceptibility maps provide a basis for developing more efficient fire-fighting strategies and reorganizing policies in favor of sustainable management of forest resources.

Trait-based climate vulnerability of native rodents in southwestern Mexico

AIM

Incorporate species' trait information together with climate projections for associated habitat to assess the potential vulnerability of rodent taxa to climate change.

LOCATION

Oaxaca State, Mexico.

METHODS

We used a trait-based approach together with climate exposure models to evaluate the vulnerability of rodent species to projected climate conditions in the study region. Vulnerability was estimated based on three factors: (a) Level of climatic exposure that species are projected to experience across their current statewide range; (b) inherent species-specific sensitivity to stochastic events; and (c) species' capacity to cope with climate change effects. We defined species as inherently sensitive if they had any of the following: restricted geographic distribution in Mexico; narrow altitudinal range; low dispersal ability; or long generation length.

RESULTS

Vulnerability varied depending on the climate change scenario applied. Under the MPI general circulation model and current emissions trends, by 2099, all species evaluated were projected to have some level of threat (vulnerable for at least one factor), with 4 out of 55 species vulnerable for all three factors, 29 for two factors, and 22 for one factor. Six out of ten rodent species endemic to Oaxaca were vulnerable for two or more factors. We found that species with narrow and restricted-range distributions combined with low adaptive capacity were projected to be particularly vulnerable.

MAIN CONCLUSIONS

By including species-specific trait information in climate exposure assessments, researchers can contextualize and enhance their understanding about how climate change is likely to affect individual taxa in an area of interest. As such, studies like this one provide more relevant threat assessment information than exposure analyses alone and serve as a starting point for considering how climatic changes interact with an array of other variables to affect native species across their range.