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Reyes de Merkle J, Creel S, Becker MS, Goodheart B, Mweetwa T, Mwape H, Dröge E, Simpamba T. Long-term data reveal fitness costs of anthropogenic prey depletion for a subordinate competitor, the African wild dog ( Lycaon pictus). Ecol Evol 2024; 14:e11402. [PMID: 38932965 PMCID: PMC11199200 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.11402] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/12/2024] [Revised: 04/21/2024] [Accepted: 04/26/2024] [Indexed: 06/28/2024] Open
Abstract
Within carnivore guilds, dominant competitors (e.g., lions, Panthera leo) are limited primarily by the density of prey, while subordinate competitors (e.g., African wild dogs, Lycaon pictus) have been limited by the density of dominant competitors. Historically, the fitness and population density of subordinate competitors have not been tightly linked to prey density. However, populations of large herbivores have declined substantially across sub-Saharan Africa due to human impacts, and where prey depletion is severe, fitness costs for competitive subordinates may begin to outweigh the benefits of competitive release. Using long-term intensive monitoring of African wild dogs in Zambia's Luangwa Valley Ecosystem (LVE), we tested the effects of prey depletion on survival and reproduction. We hypothesized that African wild dog fitness would be lower in prey-depleted areas, despite lower lion densities. Our study area included four contiguous regions that varied in protection level, prey density, and lion density. We fit Bayesian Cormack-Jolly-Seber and closed-capture models to estimate effects on survival and population density, and generalized linear models to estimate effects on reproductive success. We found that the LVE is a stronghold for African wild dogs, with an estimated median density of 4.0 individuals/100 km2. Despite this high density, survival and reproduction differed among regions, and both components of fitness were substantially reduced in the region with the lowest prey density. Anthropogenic prey depletion is becoming an important limiting factor for African wild dogs. If prey depletion (or any other form of habitat degradation) becomes severe enough that its fitness costs outweigh the benefits of competitive release, such changes can fundamentally alter the balance between limiting factors for competitively subordinate species.
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Affiliation(s)
- Johnathan Reyes de Merkle
- Zambian Carnivore ProgrammeMfuweEastern ProvinceZambia
- Department of EcologyMontana State UniversityBozemanMontanaUSA
| | - Scott Creel
- Zambian Carnivore ProgrammeMfuweEastern ProvinceZambia
- Department of EcologyMontana State UniversityBozemanMontanaUSA
- Institutionen för Vilt, Fisk Och Miljö, Sveriges LantbruksuniversitetUmeåSweden
| | - Matthew S. Becker
- Zambian Carnivore ProgrammeMfuweEastern ProvinceZambia
- Department of EcologyMontana State UniversityBozemanMontanaUSA
| | - Ben Goodheart
- Zambian Carnivore ProgrammeMfuweEastern ProvinceZambia
- Department of EcologyMontana State UniversityBozemanMontanaUSA
| | | | - Henry Mwape
- Zambian Carnivore ProgrammeMfuweEastern ProvinceZambia
| | - Egil Dröge
- Zambian Carnivore ProgrammeMfuweEastern ProvinceZambia
- Wildlife Conservation Research UnitOxford UniversityOxfordUK
| | - Twakundine Simpamba
- Department of National Parks and Wildlife, South Luangwa Area Management UnitMfuweEastern ProvinceZambia
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Rabett RJ, Morimoto R, Kahlert T, Stimpson CM, O’Donnell S, Mai Huong NT, Manh BV, Holmes R, Khánh PS, Van TT, Coward F. Prehistoric pathways to Anthropocene adaptation: Evidence from the Red River Delta, Vietnam. PLoS One 2023; 18:e0280126. [PMID: 36753481 PMCID: PMC9907861 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0280126] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/02/2022] [Accepted: 12/20/2022] [Indexed: 02/09/2023] Open
Abstract
Over the past twenty years, government advisory bodies have placed increasing emphasis on the need for adaptive measures in response to the effects of human-induced climate change. Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), which incorporate macroeconomic and climate variables, feature prominently in advisory content, though they rarely draw on data from outside strictly constrained hypothetical systems. This has led to assertions that they are not well-suited to approximate complex systemic human-environment processes. Modular, interdisciplinary approaches have offered a way to address this shortcoming; however, beyond climate records, prehistoric data continue to be under-utilised in developing such models. In this paper we highlight the contribution that archaeology and palaeoecology can make to the development of the next generation IAMs that are expected to enhance provision for more local and pro-active adaptations to future climate change. We present data from one of Southeast Asia's most heavily developed river deltas: the Red River (Song Hong) Delta, in Vietnam and localised analysis from the Tràng An Landscape Complex World Heritage Site, on the delta's southern margin. Comparison is made between Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP) 5-8.5 and SSP2-4.5 emission projection models and the Mid-Holocene inundation of the Red River Basin. We highlight the value to taking a scientific long view of coastal evolution through an illustrative set of eight research foci where palaeo-data can bring new and localised empirical data to bear on future risk management planning. We proceed to demonstrate the applicability of palaeoenvironmental, zooarchaeological and historical evidence to management and the development of sustainable conservation strategies using Tràng An as a case study. In so doing, we further highlight the importance of knowledge exchange between scientific, corporate, non-governmental, local, and state stakeholders to achieve tangible results on the ground.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ryan J. Rabett
- Archaeology & Palaeoecology, School of Natural & Built Environment, Queen’s University Belfast, Belfast, United Kingdom
- Institute for Hellenic Culture & the Liberal Arts, The American College of Greece, Athens, Greece
- * E-mail:
| | - Risa Morimoto
- Department of Economics, School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS), University of London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Thorsten Kahlert
- Centre for Geographic Information Science and Geomatics, School of Natural & Built Environment, Queen’s University Belfast, Belfast, United Kingdom
| | | | - Shawn O’Donnell
- Department of Geography & Environmental Sciences, Northumbria University, Newcastle Upon Tyne, United Kingdom
| | | | - Bui Van Manh
- Department of Tourism, Ninh Bình City, Ninh Bình Province, Vietnam
| | - Rachael Holmes
- School of Geography, Geology & the Environment, University of Leicester, Leicester, United Kingdom
| | - Phạm Sinh Khánh
- Tràng An Landscape Complex Management Board, Ninh Bình City, Ninh Bình Province, Vietnam
| | - Tran Tan Van
- Vietnam Institute of Geosciences & Mineral Resources, Ministry of Natural Resources & Environment, Hanoi, Vietnam
| | - Fiona Coward
- Department of Archaeology, Anthropology & Forensic Science, Faculty of Science & Technology Bournemouth University, Poole, Dorset, United Kingdom
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Xu J, Renaud FG, Barrett B. Modelling land system evolution and dynamics of terrestrial carbon stocks in the Luanhe River Basin, China: a scenario analysis of trade-offs and synergies between sustainable development goals. SUSTAINABILITY SCIENCE 2021; 17:1323-1345. [PMID: 34306239 PMCID: PMC8282888 DOI: 10.1007/s11625-021-01004-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/08/2021] [Accepted: 07/04/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
UNLABELLED A more holistic understanding of land use and land cover (LULC) will help minimise trade-offs and maximise synergies, and lead to improved future land use management strategies for the attainment of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). However, current assessments of future LULC changes rarely focus on the multiple demands for goods and services, which are related to the synergies and trade-offs between SDGs and their targets. In this study, the land system (combinations of land cover and land use intensity) evolution trajectories of the Luanhe River Basin (LRB), China, and major challenges that the LRB may face in 2030, were explored by applying the CLUMondo and InVEST models. The results indicate that the LRB is likely to experience agricultural intensification and urban growth under all four scenarios that were explored. The cropland intensity and the urban growth rate were much higher under the historical trend (Trend) scenario compared to those with more planning interventions (Expansion, Sustainability, and Conservation scenarios). Unless the forest area and biodiversity conservation targets are implemented (Conservation scenario), the forest areas are projected to decrease by 2030. The results indicate that water scarcity in the LRB is likely to increase under all scenarios, and the carbon storage will increase under the Conservation scenario but decrease under all other scenarios by 2030. Our methodological framework and findings can guide regional sustainable development in the LRB and other large river basins in China, and will be valuable for policy and planning purposes to the pursuance of SDGs at the sub-national scale. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11625-021-01004-y.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jiren Xu
- School of Interdisciplinary Studies, University of Glasgow, Dumfries, UK
| | - Fabrice G. Renaud
- School of Interdisciplinary Studies, University of Glasgow, Dumfries, UK
| | - Brian Barrett
- School of Geographical and Earth Sciences, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
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