The importance of discussing mortality risk prior to emergency laparotomy

Perioperative mortality rate and its predictors after emergency laparatomy at Debre Markos comprehensive specialized hospital, Northwest Ethiopia: 2023: retrospective follow-up study

BACKGROUND

Emergency laparatomy is abdominal surgery associated with a high rate of mortality. There are few reports on rates and predictors of postoperative mortality, whereas disease related or time specific studies are limited. Understanding the rate and predictors of mortality in the first 30 days (perioperative period) is important for evidence based decision and counseling of patients. This study aimed to estimate the perioperative mortality rate and its predictors after emergency laparatomy at Debre Markos Comprehensive Specialized Hospital, Northwest Ethiopia, 2023.

METHODS

This was a Hospital-based retrospective follow-up study conducted at Debre Markos Comprehensive Specialized Hospital in Ethiopia among patients who had undergone emergency laparatomy between January 1, 2019 and December 31, 2022. Sample of 418 emergency laparatomy patients selected with simple random sampling technique were studied. The data were extracted from March 15, 2023 to April 1, 2023 using a data extraction tool, cleaned, and entered into Epi-Data software version 3.1 before being exported to STATA software version 14.1 for analysis. Predictor variables with P value < 0.05 in multivariable Cox regression were reported.

RESULTS

Data of 386 study participants (92.3% complete charts) were analyzed. The median survival time was 18 days [IQR: (14, 29)]. The overall perioperative mortality rate in the cohort during the 2978 person-days of observations was 25.5 per 1000 person-days of follow-up [95% CI: (20.4, 30.9))]. Preoperative need for vasopressor [AHR: 1.8 (95% CI: (1.11, 2.98))], admission to intensive care unit [AHR: 2.0 (95% CI: (1.23, 3.49))], longer than three days of symptoms [AHR: 2.2 (95% CI: (1.15, 4.02))] and preoperative sepsis [AHR: 1.8 (95% CI: (1.05, 3.17))] were identified statistically significant predictors of perioperative mortality after emergency laparatomy.

CONCLUSIONS

The perioperative mortality rate is high. Preoperative need for vasopressors, admission to intensive care unit, longer than three days of symptoms and preoperative sepsis were predictors of increased perioperative mortality rate.

Prospective multicenter external validation of postoperative mortality prediction tools in patients undergoing emergency laparotomy

BACKGROUND

Accurate preoperative risk assessment in emergency laparotomy (EL) is valuable for informed decision making and rational use of resources. Available risk prediction tools have not been validated adequately across diverse health care settings. Herein, we report a comparative external validation of four widely cited prognostic models.

METHODS

A multicenter cohort was prospectively composed of consecutive patients undergoing EL in 11 Greek hospitals from January 2020 to May 2021 using the National Emergency Laparotomy Audit (NELA) inclusion criteria. Thirty-day mortality risk predictions were calculated using the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (ACS-NSQIP), NELA, Portsmouth Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the Enumeration of Mortality and Morbidity (P-POSSUM), and Predictive Optimal Trees in Emergency Surgery Risk tools. Surgeons' assessment of postoperative mortality using predefined cutoffs was recorded, and a surgeon-adjusted ACS-NSQIP prediction was calculated when the original model's prediction was relatively low. Predictive performances were compared using scaled Brier scores, discrimination and calibration measures and plots, and decision curve analysis. Heterogeneity across hospitals was assessed by random-effects meta-analysis.

RESULTS

A total of 631 patients were included, and 30-day mortality was 16.3%. The ACS-NSQIP and its surgeon-adjusted version had the highest scaled Brier scores. All models presented high discriminative ability, with concordance statistics ranging from 0.79 for P-POSSUM to 0.85 for NELA. However, except the surgeon-adjusted ACS-NSQIP (Hosmer-Lemeshow test, p = 0.742), all other models were poorly calibrated ( p < 0.001). Decision curve analysis revealed superior clinical utility of the ACS-NSQIP. Following recalibrations, predictive accuracy improved for all models, but ACS-NSQIP retained the lead. Between-hospital heterogeneity was minimum for the ACS-NSQIP model and maximum for P-POSSUM.

CONCLUSION

The ACS-NSQIP tool was most accurate for mortality predictions after EL in a broad external validation cohort, demonstrating utility for facilitating preoperative risk management in the Greek health care system. Subjective surgeon assessments of patient prognosis may optimize ACS-NSQIP predictions.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Diagnostic Test/Criteria; Level II.

Triage and outcomes for a whole cohort of patients presenting for major emergency abdominal surgery including the No-LAP population: a prospective single-center observational study

PURPOSE

This study aimed to characterize 252 consecutive patients with an indication for major emergency abdominal surgery including patients not proceeding to surgery (No-Lap). Patients who do not proceed to major emergency abdominal surgery and their clinical outcomes are not well characterized in the existing literature. Triage criteria may vary between centers, potentially impacting reported outcomes.

METHODS

A single-center prospective observational study in a high-volume Danish surgical center including 252 patients presenting with an indication for major emergent abdominal surgery was conducted from the 15th of October 2020 to the 15th of August 2021. The primary outcome was to estimate the prevalence of No-Lap patients.

RESULTS

Overall, 21 patients (8.3%) of our total study cohort did not proceed to surgery. These patients were significantly older, more comorbid with higher ASA scores, poorer performance status, and were more likely to have bowel ischemia. Poor functional performance and surgeons' consideration of futile intervention were the main reasons for deferring surgery in all 21 patients. Overall, 30-day mortality was 95% for the No-LAP cohort, 9% for the LAP cohort, and 16% for the whole cohort, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The No-LAP group selection process could be one of the main determinants of reported postoperative outcomes. Prospective international multi-center studies to characterize the entire cohort of patients eligible for emergency laparotomy including the No-LAP population are needed, as large variations in triage criteria and culture seem to exist. Trial registration Retrospectively registered.