Assessing the detectability of the Irish stoat Mustela erminea hibernica using two camera trap-based survey methods

Forest disturbance and occupancy patterns of American ermine (Mustela richardsonii) and long-tailed weasel (Neogale frenata): results from a large-scale natural experiment in Maine, United States

Weasels are small mustelid carnivores that play an important role as predators of small mammals in a wide array of ecosystems. However, their response to land use, such as forest harvest for timber products, is seldom the subject of focused research and management projects. Both the American ermine, also known as the short-tailed weasel (Mustela richardsonii), and the long-tailed weasel (Neogale frenata) are native to Maine, United States, where commercial timber harvesting is widespread. The effects of this forest disturbance on weasels are poorly understood, so to contribute toward filling this knowledge gap, we conducted a 4-year, large-scale field study: specifically, our objective was to assess the effects of forest disturbance caused by timber harvest on occupancy patterns of ermines and long-tailed weasels occupancy patterns in Maine. We collected data from 197 survey sites (three camera traps each) over 4 years and analyzed over 7,000 images of weasels using dynamic false-positive occupancy models. We found that American ermines were widely distributed across the state (naïve occupancy at 54% of sites), while long-tailed weasels were rarer (naïve occupancy at 16% of sites). Both species responded positively to forest disturbance, with higher occupancy probabilities as disturbance increased, especially at the larger scales. American ermines were more likely to occupy stands with a higher percentage of conifer trees, while no such relationship was found for long-tailed weasels. We conclude that current forest harvest practices in Maine are not detrimental to weasel populations, but that the two species warrant continued monitoring.

Using a Modeling Approach to Inform Progress Towards Stoat Eradication From the Orkney Islands

Invasive non-native species eradication attempts are typically large and expensive projects that benefit from the support of quantitative tools, such as population models, to be completed within the scheduled and funded time. Managed ecosystems are constantly changing due to population and ecosystem dynamics. Accordingly, any model predictions need to be updated, using different sources of data, to inform the project about the progress toward eradication. The stoat Mustela erminea was introduced to the hitherto predatory land mammal free Orkney archipelago around 2010. In 2016, a project aiming to eradicate stoats to preserve ecologically and economically important native wildlife was designed and implemented. It entailed a “knockdown” phase followed by a “mopping-up” phase to remove stoats that escaped capture. We used data from this project to iteratively predict the progress toward eradication. We applied spatially explicit individual-based models to estimate the proportion of stoats being exposed to capture, and then compared these simulation-based predictions with removal data, allowing us to estimate changes in the population size through time. We also used sighting data from members of the public to refine eradication probability. We were also able to demonstrate how the initially wide uncertainty gradually diminished as more evidence accumulated. The information derived from different types of data and quantitative models allowed us to track the effectiveness of current trapping approaches and to help to inform project managers about when the project achieved the knockdown phase milestone. Our analyses confirmed that the expected magnitude of the initial knockdown phase has been achieved in some areas, but also revealed spatial and temporal heterogeneity in the distribution of captures, most likely caused by the sequential trapping and stoat movement and trap shy stoats exposed to capture but not caught. This heterogeneity calls for additional data sources (e.g., from camera traps or detection dogs) to estimate the proportion of trap-shy individuals and the size of the untrapped population, and ultimately the feasibility of eradication.