Noninvasive screening tool to detect undiagnosed diabetes among young and middle-aged people in Chinese community

Development and validation of a diabetes mellitus and prediabetes risk prediction function for case finding in primary care in Hong Kong: a cross-sectional study and a prospective study protocol paper

INTRODUCTION

Diabetes mellitus (DM) is a major non-communicable disease with an increasing prevalence. Undiagnosed DM is not uncommon and can lead to severe complications and mortality. Identifying high-risk individuals at an earlier disease stage, that is, pre-diabetes (pre-DM), is crucial in delaying progression. Existing risk models mainly rely on non-modifiable factors to predict only the DM risk, and few apply to Chinese people. This study aims to develop and validate a risk prediction function that incorporates modifiable lifestyle factors to detect DM and pre-DM in Chinese adults in primary care.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

A cross-sectional study to develop DM/Pre-DM risk prediction functions using data from the Hong Kong's Population Health Survey (PHS) 2014/2015 and a 12-month prospective study to validate the functions in case finding of individuals with DM/pre-DM. Data of 1857 Chinese adults without self-reported DM/Pre-DM will be extracted from the PHS 2014/2015 to develop DM/Pre-DM risk models using logistic regression and machine learning methods. 1014 Chinese adults without a known history of DM/Pre-DM will be recruited from public and private primary care clinics in Hong Kong. They will complete a questionnaire on relevant risk factors and blood tests on Oral Glucose Tolerance Test (OGTT) and haemoglobin A1C (HbA1c) on recruitment and, if the first blood test is negative, at 12 months. A positive case is DM/pre-DM defined by OGTT or HbA1c in any blood test. Area under receiver operating characteristic curve, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of the models in detecting DM/pre-DM will be calculated.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Ethics approval has been received from The University of Hong Kong/Hong Kong Hospital Authority Hong Kong West Cluster (UW19-831) and Hong Kong Hospital Authority Kowloon Central/Kowloon East Cluster (REC(KC/KE)-21-0042/ER-3). The study results will be submitted for publication in a peer-reviewed journal.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

US ClinicalTrial.gov: NCT04881383; HKU clinical trials registry: HKUCTR-2808; Pre-results.

Prediction Models for Type 2 Diabetes Risk in the General Population: A Systematic Review of Observational Studies

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to provide an overview of prediction models of undiagnosed type 2 diabetes mellitus (U-T2DM) or the incident T2DM (I-T2DM) using the transparent reporting of a multivariable prediction model for individual prognosis or diagnosis (TRIPOD) checklist and the prediction model risk of the bias assessment tool (PROBAST).

DATA SOURCES

Both PUBMED and EMBASE databases were searched to guarantee adequate and efficient coverage.

STUDY SELECTION

Articles published between December 2011 and October 2019 were considered.

DATA EXTRACTION

For each article, information on model development requirements, discrimination measures, calibration, overall performance, clinical usefulness, overfitting, and risk of bias (ROB) was reported.

RESULTS

The median (interquartile range; IQR) number of the 46 study populations for model development was 5711 (1971 - 27426) and 2457 (2060 - 6995) individuals for I-T2DM and U-T2DM, respectively. The most common reported predictors were age and body mass index, and only the Qrisk-2017 study included social factors (e.g., Townsend score). Univariable analysis was reported in 46% of the studies, and the variable selection procedure was not clear in 17.4% of them. Moreover, internal and external validation was reported in 43% the studies, while over 63% of them reported calibration. The median (IQR) of AUC for I-T2DM models was 0.78 (0.74 - 0.82); the corresponding value for studies derived before October 2011 was 0.80 (0.77 - 0.83). The highest discrimination index was reported for Qrisk-2017 with C-statistics of 0.89 for women and 0.87 for men. Low ROB for I-T2DM and U-T2DM was assessed at 18% and 41%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Among prediction models, an intermediate to poor quality was reassessed in several aspects of model development and validation. Generally, despite its new risk factors or new methodological aspects, the newly developed model did not increase our capability in screening/predicting T2DM, mainly in the analysis part. It was due to the lack of external validation of the prediction models.

A computer aided diagnostic method for the evaluation of type II diabetes mellitus in facial thermograms

Almost 50% of individuals around the globe are unaware of diabetes and its complications. So, an early screening of diabetes is very important at this current situation. To overcome the difficulties such as pain and discomfort to the subjects obtained from the biochemical diagnostic procedures; an infrared thermography is the diagnostic technique which measures the skin surface temperature noninvasively. Thus, the aim of our proposed study was to evaluate the type II diabetes in facial thermograms and to develop a computer aided diagnosis (CAD) system to classify the normal and diabetes. The facial thermograms (n = 160) including male (n = 79) and female (n = 81) were captured using FLIR A 305sc infrared thermal camera. The Haralick textural features were extracted from the facial thermograms based on gray level co-occurrence matrix algorithm. The T_ROI, T_MAX, and T_TOT are the statistical temperature parameters exhibited a significant negative correlation with HbA1c (r = - 0.421, - 0.411, - 0.242, p < 0.01 (T_ROI); r = - 0.259, p < 0.01(T_MAX) and - 0.173, p < 0.05 (T_TOT)). An optimal regression equation has been constructed by using the significant facial variables and standard HbA1c values. The model has achieved sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy rate as 91.42%, 88.57%, and 90% respectively. The anthropometrical variables, extracted textural features and temperature parameters were fed into the classifiers and their performances were compared. The Support Vector Machine outperformed the Linear Discriminant Analysis (84.37%) and k-Nearest Neighbor (81.25%) classifiers with the maximum accuracy rate of 89.37%. The developed CAD system has achieved 89.37% of accuracy rate for the classification of diabetes. Thus, the facial thermography could be used as the basic non-invasive prognostic tool for the evaluation of type II diabetes mellitus.